Article: Estimating Tre Jones' Next Contract

[spurraider21]

We'll see what he ends up getting. I think some of the disconnect when talking salaries is that the salary cap is growing so quickly that it messes with the frame of reference. The salary cap is twice what it was in 2014 and is all but guaranteed to grow at a compounded rate of 10% for the foreseeable future. To put this back into Spurs contending era terms, the contract options I laid out for Jones has less impact on today's cap than the 4-year, $14 million Matt Bonner signed back in 2010. It's difficult to visualize but a $40 million contract is 2023 is equivalent to like a $12 million contract in 2010 when you factor in cap inflation, expected cap growth and the differences in the CBA from then to now.

bonner should have been amnestied tbh

but he did randomly start in that big playoff game against OKC

[timvp]

Considering Jones' qualifying offer of $5.2 million, what's the minimum he would sign for as opposed to just signing the QO and becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer? His agent knows that eyes will be on the Spurs this year due to Wemby, which theoretically bumps up what Jones could get on the open market next summer. Also, the cap is going up another 10%.

In a situation that no team comes calling for Jones, would he even be willing to sign a 2-year, $16 million contract a la Delon Wright? I mean, maybe ... but probably not. Unless Jones completely flops (and he doesn't really have the type of game that can flop too dramatically), his agent has to confident that he could make up that $11 million difference by just taking the QO and waiting until Jones is unrestricted.

We'll see. From San Antonio's perspective, I like the idea of locking Jones up in a declining contract in an environment where the salary cap is rising at a compounding 10% clip. But even if it comes down to just Jones playing on his $5.2 QO, that's not bad news for the Spurs. Jones has value but backup point guards are replaceable.

I guess worse case scenario is Jones plays on the QO and then proves to be the perfect PG for Wemby ... and then you'd be stuck either paying him Hollinger's $70 million next summer ($77 million with inflation) or letting him walk.

[DPG21920]

That’s not a problem ^ if he proves he’s worth it then that it great news and you pay him just like you would pay anyone you think IS the PG for Wemby moving forward.

Spurs should only sign Tre, IMO, if its a very good no risk value like 10M or less per year

[JPB]

I agree with that, we're seeing too many bad contracts in the NBA that you do'nt want spurs to sign one. That wouldn't be a dramatically bad one but it's about global discipline and building your roster the right way... Once you overpay for one, you set a standard and a precedent that other players and their agents are watching... I don't know where Hollinger comes from with those numbers, and if he's just helping Tre's agent for whatever reason, but 4/70 for Tre is just not good business.

[jesterbobman]

The 4 year 40m structure is perfectly fine.
You need competent depth, and Tre Jones is a decent player, albeit one with warts that were particularly prevalent with the lack of shooting at other positions. He'll probably never get to be a high level starter, but competent backup is useful and an important piece to have. Ideally he gets beaten out by Wesley learning to shoot / finish, but that's not close now. At that level, he's not really going to stop you going after free agents either.

I'd also guess that Tre wants money confirmed now, rather than QO and waiting for the 2024 FA - He's had three years on a (relative for the NBA) low money deal, getting locked in generational wealth is a decent move for him.

[timvp]

That’s not a problem ^ if he proves he’s worth it then that it great news and you pay him just like you would pay anyone you think IS the PG for Wemby moving forward.

It'd be kinda bad in the scenario where the Spurs balk at giving him $40 million over four years this summer ... only to be be forced to pay him $82 million over five years.

[Extra Stout]

It'd be kinda bad in the scenario where the Spurs balk at giving him $40 million over four years this summer ... only to be be forced to pay him $82 million over five years.

Having Tre Jones improve to the point where he’s worth $82 million over 5 years sounds like a great problem to have.

[Seventyniner]

Having Tre Jones improve to the point where he’s worth $82 million over 5 years sounds like a great problem to have.

I agree. The Spurs would only even consider paying that much if Tre improves immensely. The cap sheet next summer will still be quite clean even if the Spurs use all their cap space this summer (on multi-year deals) because McDermott and Birch will roll off, so the Spurs could pursue a PG in free agency.

[CGD]

40/4 would be tremendous value. I’d toss him a few additional incentives to allow for the front loading. I think comes in higher though

[TD 21]

In a league that's quietly phasing out small guards and non shooters (outside of rim running/protecting bigs), the notion of giving one 4 years is insane. Anything more than 2 fully guaranteed (3rd can be partial or t/o) is too much.

only to be be forced to pay him $82 million over five years.

Considering there's no other team where Jones would be gifted the opportunity he has been here and they're flush with cap space and draft capital, he has virtually no leverage and needs the Spurs far more than they need him.

They should never be "forced" into paying him period and if his representation even thinks about playing hardball, they shouldn't hesitate to move on.

[spurraider21]

people on this forum have talked about wanting to absorb contracts in exchange for draft capital yet we are apparently on the verge of just walking into a bad contract for a player with minimal impact

[MultiTroll]

It'd be kinda bad in the scenario where the Spurs balk at giving him $40 million over four years this summer ... only to be be forced to pay him $82 million over five years.

And if they pay him 40/4 and he shows he still at 27% treys etc etc and the Spurs find a far better option in the next year or so you just got jammed for 4 years as the team is trying to grow to Champ stature with Wemby.

Let him test the RFA market. If he has some leaps and bounds improvement for one year and earns a raise, so be it.
I'm not putting in a bunch of chips on a meh very maybe hand. Seems like there would be tons of other options available for the same or even less.

[MannyIsGod]

People have misunderstood salaries for quite some time on this forum because they are locked into a very static idea of what the average salary is.

I don't really have a problem with a 4 year 40 million dollar figure for Tre, but I also find some of the arguments in this thread ridiculous. I don't GAF that Tre was a starter last year and while his agent may push that narrative heavily (since that's his job) it's easy AF to push back and point out that 1) it was a largely awful team and 2) his stats are really ing pedestrian as it is. Tre may have started a lot last year, but in no way should he be considered a starter type of player. He's a backup caliber PG and sometimes these players start for one reason or another (like tanking) but that doesn't mean they get to magically use that fact in negotiations without anyone easily pushing back against it.

Definitely prefer a shorter term contract for him, but its not like his game is going to fall of a cliff so its whatever. I have a hard time seeing scenarios where he's worse than what he is now in the future, and 4/40 is about the right amount for a good backup PG.

If Tre Jones is our starting PG on day 1 then we have a problem, though.

[DPG21920]

It'd be kinda bad in the scenario where the Spurs balk at giving him $40 million over four years this summer ... only to be be forced to pay him $82 million over five years.

I disagree. Sure in hindsight on value? But if he’s truly that good then it’s nothing. Spurs want to be good and if he’s THAT good it would be a massive turn of events and Sa was going to pay someone that money anyways as they look to leap is all I’m saying.

I have no problems paying really good players that we know are perfect fits along side Wemby. I have an issue with gambling on that and not being cautious to avoid bad deals on guys that don’t move needle at this point with the advantage Sa has right now

[tonight...you]

I disagree. Sure in hindsight on value? But if he’s truly that good then it’s nothing. Spurs want to be good and if he’s THAT good it would be a massive turn of events and Sa was going to pay someone that money anyways as they look to leap is all I’m saying.

I have no problems paying really good players that we know are perfect fits along side Wemby. I have an issue with gambling on that and not being cautious to avoid bad deals on guys that don’t move needle at this point with the advantage Sa has right now

Seems like you're on Wright's side who is preaching patience and seeing who fits with who well for next year while allowing Jones to hit RFA to properly gauge his value throughout the league.
I see not a lot of need to stress unless they do something uncharacteristic to what he's been saying/doing.

[DAF86]

Yeah, there's literally no scenario where it makes sense for the Spurs to outbid themselves on a player that probably isn't going to attract much interest from opposing teams. Even 4/40 seems too high for my taste. Nobody's gonna come knocking on the door for an undersized PG that can't shoot.

[CGD]

Yeah, there's literally no scenario where it makes sense for the Spurs to outbid themselves on a player that probably isn't going to attract much interest from opposing teams. Even 4/40 seems too high for my taste. Nobody's gonna come knocking on the door for an undersized PG that can't shoot.

^ I’m not so sure. He would be a nice get for a contender with the MLE to use looking for back up pg. For example, he would perfect on the Suns or Nuggets.

[Uriel]

Why not just sign Dejounte Murray next summer?

[MultiTroll]

^ I’m not so sure. He would be a nice get for a contender with the MLE to use looking for back up pg. For example, he would perfect on the Suns or Nuggets.

Then you take that chance.
If Tre signs with Suns or Nuggets you easily replace him with a player who can do just as much as him for probably half the cost.
Certainly half the years.

[MultiTroll]

Why not just sign Dejounte Murray next summer?

With over half of his salary being paid by what would be going to Tre, that would be SWEET!
And for only the last year of DJs remaining contract. Double sweet.

[Mugen]

2yr/25-30mil sounds fine to me for Tre. Tack on a team option for the 3rd year if you want. The '25 free agency class is the one they should circle tbh.

[RC_Drunkford]

that's way too much. Monte Morris earns 9.8 million. 25-30/2 would be Tyus Jones money and Tyus is way better than Tre

[KobesAchilles]

Why tf would you sign him for 4 years? It makes zero sense. Who signs back up point guards to 4 year deals when they are small and can’t shoot? You offer him a 2 year deal 16 million next year. Have him play out his QO. He hasn’t earned real money yet and if contract year Danny was a thing then I want to see contract year Tre. 4 ing years

Nobody is going to offer him 4 years $82 million next year. We would have to make noise in the playoffs, which we won’t with this current roster, or his overrated ass would have to play on the Lakers. I mean seriously he would have to average 15 and 10 to get that kinda contract with remarkable improvement on his shooting. Both inside and outside the paint. It’s not happening. Realistically, what team is going to pay him 10 million a year for 4 years? And if they do THEN you can decide if you want to match it

[timtonymanu]

"12:01 am Spurs sign Tre Jones to 4 yr/70 million contract.

I hope it's not another 50 Mills situation. This kid better show more improvement if he's gonna make that kind of money. I know the Spurs need a PG and contracts are more expensive now but I don't think he's worth that much.

[K...]

Why tf would you sign him for 4 years? It makes zero sense. Who signs back up point guards to 4 year deals when they are small and can’t shoot? You offer him a 2 year deal 16 million next year. Have him play out his QO. He hasn’t earned real money yet and if contract year Danny was a thing then I want to see contract year Tre. 4 ing years

Nobody is going to offer him 4 years $82 million next year. We would have to make noise in the playoffs, which we won’t with this current roster, or his overrated ass would have to play on the Lakers. I mean seriously he would have to average 15 and 10 to get that kinda contract with remarkable improvement on his shooting. Both inside and outside the paint. It’s not happening. Realistically, what team is going to pay him 10 million a year for 4 years? And if they do THEN you can decide if you want to match it

one, trade off for total payment. more years less total, especially with rising cap, two: trade value. Jones is going get shine with wemby and people might bight on him being the next surefire starter while the spurs might have a better or cheaper prospect by then.