so how are the democrats gonna win exactly in 2024?,,,,,

[Thread]

This, TBH.

RFK takes a small amount of votes from Trump and West probably does the same to Biden. The two offset each other.

You're both chock full of .

[ChumpDumper]

This, TBH.

RFK takes a small amount of votes from Trump and West probably does the same to Biden. The two offset each other.

How much is West polling right now?

[Dirks_Finale]

How much is West polling right now?

Like 3-5% which is what Kennedy likely drops to around Oct/Nov of next year.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Like 3-5% which is what Kennedy likely drops to around Oct/Nov of next year.

No; realistically Kennedy doesn't even make the ballot, and even if he does, he garners <1%.

West at 3-5% is pretty accurate FWIW. That's who the squad, MSA, pro Palestine peeps et al. are going to endorse. West could very well torpedo Biden decisively in the black inner-city precincts of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philly.

[Will Hunting]

No; realistically Kennedy doesn't even make the ballot, and even if he does, he garners <1%.

West at 3-5% is pretty accurate FWIW. That's who the squad, MSA, pro Palestine peeps et al. are going to endorse. West could very well torpedo Biden decisively in the black inner-city precincts of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philly.

You really should pump the brakes on re ed predictions (JR Mjewski)

[Millennial_Messiah]

You really should pump the brakes on re ed predictions (JR Mjewski)

Majewski's trying to run again. To be fair I think a generic (R) riding the Trump coattails could win that district and oust the 40-year in bent. But not Majewski. He's too polarizing. He needs to run in, like, a R+25 type district to win.

[Ef-man]

You really should pump the brakes on re ed predictions (JR Mjewski)

And the re has the nerve to ask why I am opposed to homeschooling.

[Will Hunting]

And the re has the nerve to ask why I am opposed to homeschooling.

Christian nationalist dads who use their daughters as sex slaves utilize home schooling as a way to hide their abuse from teachers/administrators who might notice.

It shouldn’t be illegal but it should be heavily regulated.

[Will Hunting]

Majewski's trying to run again. To be fair I think a generic (R) riding the Trump coattails could win that district and oust the 40-year in bent. But not Majewski. He's too polarizing. He needs to run in, like, a R+25 type district to win.

He’s making noise about it but only after he announced he wasn’t going to. I don’t see it happening.

Fortunately Ohio is going to have an independent redistricting commission on the ballot in 2024 that will put new maps in place in 2026 if it passes, so all Kaptur has to do is survive 2024 before getting put back in a Biden district.

[ChumpDumper]

Like 3-5% which is what Kennedy likely drops to around Oct/Nov of next year.

Link?

What is RFK polling now?

[Will Hunting]

I don’t see Cornel West cracking 1% or RFK Jr cracking 2%.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He’s making noise about it but only after he announced he wasn’t going to. I don’t see it happening.

Fortunately Ohio is going to have an independent redistricting commission on the ballot in 2024 that will put new maps in place in 2026 if it passes, so all Kaptur has to do is survive 2024 before getting put back in a Biden district.

I think the Dems would be smarter to put that on the ballot in 2023 than 2024, since 2023 it would be on the same ticket as next month's abortion freedom bill which is expected to pass by like 10-15% even though it's a red state it's also on the pro choice side similar to MI.

Putting liberal measures on the same ballot as Trump-Biden in a Trump+>10 state is probably not a good idea for liberal ballot initiatives or Democrat candidates in Trump districts.

I don’t see Cornel West cracking 1% or RFK Jr cracking 2%.

I agree but the reverse. West will do better than Stein but worse than Nader. RFK Jr if he makes the ballot won't crack 1%.

[ChumpDumper]

I think the Dems would be smarter to put that on the ballot in 2023 than 2024, since 2023 it would be on the same ticket as next month's abortion freedom bill which is expected to pass by like 10-15% even though it's a red state it's also on the pro choice side similar to MI.

Putting liberal measures on the same ballot as Trump-Biden in a Trump+>10 state is probably not a good idea for liberal ballot initiatives or Democrat candidates in Trump districts.




I agree but the reverse. West will do better than Stein but worse than Nader. RFK Jr if he makes the ballot won't crack 1%.

RFK's RCP average is like 15%.

West's isn't even 1/10 of that.

[Millennial_Messiah]

RFK's RCP average is like 15%.

West's isn't even 1/10 of that.

You're looking at the Democrat primary, vs. West as an independent?

Apples and oranges.

[Millennial_Messiah]

West polling 5% aggregate, and 9% in October, as an independent:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...west-8249.html

(to be fair, I don't think he gets that)


RFK won't be on the ballot, so it's irrelevant

[Will Hunting]

I think the Dems would be smarter to put that on the ballot in 2023 than 2024, since 2023 it would be on the same ticket as next month's abortion freedom bill which is expected to pass by like 10-15% even though it's a red state it's also on the pro choice side similar to MI.

Putting liberal measures on the same ballot as Trump-Biden in a Trump+>10 state is probably not a good idea for liberal ballot initiatives or Democrat candidates in Trump districts.




I agree but the reverse. West will do better than Stein but worse than Nader. RFK Jr if he makes the ballot won't crack 1%.

They can’t just snap their fingers and put it on the ballot whenever they want, 2024 is the earliest possible date.

Regardless, I can’t think of even one instance when redistricting ballot initiatives that strip the state legislature of power (in some form or another) didn’t pass a statewide vote. And independent redistricting commission even passed in ing Utah (albeit it was advisory). The median voter doesn’t see an independent redistricting commission as some radical libruhl agenda, they see a state legislature being stripped of its ability to select its voters and objectively good thing.

[ChumpDumper]

You're looking at the Democrat primary, vs. West as an independent?

Apples and oranges.

Nope.

[ChumpDumper]

West polling 5% aggregate, and 9% in October, as an independent:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...west-8249.html

(to be fair, I don't think he gets that)

Sorry, read it wrong.

He's polling 1/3 what RFK is in similar polls.

RFK won't be on the ballot, so it's irrelevant

Why would West be on the ballot but not RFK?

[daboom1]

Christian nationalist dads who use their daughters as sex slaves utilize home schooling as a way to hide their abuse from teachers/administrators who might notice.

It shouldn’t be illegal but it should be heavily regulated.

lol wut

[Blake]

This, TBH.

RFK takes a small amount of votes from Trump and West probably does the same to Biden. The two offset each other.

West as in Kanye West?

[ChumpDumper]

West as in Kanye West?

this cycle's Great Black Hope, Cornel West.

[Leetonidas]

Remember when OP made all those 2022 midterm threads ing himself over the ReD wAvE that never happened then was posting about how even though red team lost they still won? Pepperidge Farm remembers

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Remember when OP made all those 2022 midterm threads ing himself over the ReD wAvE that never happened then was posting about how even though red team lost they still won? Pepperidge Farm remembers

Before the SCOTUS their pants in late June last year, red wave 2022 midterm was absolutely 100% in the cards. SCOTUS kind of hit a third rail at the worst possible timing when Biden was disapproved of by 25% on RCP aggregate and gas was over $5 per gallon nationally. The big turning point.

A reverse 2008 style red wave happening in 2024 is absolutely in this cards as of right now, October 2023. When foreign policy, the economy/inflation/energy, and crime are the top issues rather than stuff like abortion and gay marriage and domestic social justice, the conservatives and especially a strongman like Trump absolutely have the advantage.

But who knows, SCOTUS could the bed again by overturning Obergefell v Hodges or the GOP under the new Speakership totally makes asses out of themselves, e.g. by impeaching Biden (which will go nowhere in the Senate and torpedo Trump's "two tier justice" argument), or at the very least Israel/Palestine can make peace and de-ignite the current tension. There's still plenty of time for Biden and Democrats. Heck, they could put Trump in jail in Georgia... but that scenario is looking less likely; most likely case is he pays a six or seven figure fine, pleads guilty/no contest to misdemeanors, RICO charge gets dropped, and he's ordered to write an apology letter that will admittedly make him seethe inside even if it's not actually him writing it. Worse case scenario for Trump is they ban him from being on the ballot in the state of Georgia, which I think would be a fair and equitable punishment (the GOP would have to put a replacement candidate like DeSantis but for Georgia only, to avoid insta-conceding the 16 ECV to Biden), but unfortunately for Fani Willis and the Dems there's no stare decisis for that kind of justice.

[clambake]

Before the SCOTUS their pants in late June last year, red wave 2022 midterm was absolutely 100% in the cards. SCOTUS kind of hit a third rail at the worst possible timing when Biden was disapproved of by 25% on RCP aggregate and gas was over $5 per gallon nationally. The big turning point.

A reverse 2008 style red wave happening in 2024 is absolutely in this cards as of right now, October 2023. When foreign policy, the economy/inflation/energy, and crime are the top issues rather than stuff like abortion and gay marriage and domestic social justice, the conservatives and especially a strongman like Trump absolutely have the advantage.

But who knows, SCOTUS could the bed again by overturning Obergefell v Hodges or the GOP under the new Speakership totally makes asses out of themselves, e.g. by impeaching Biden (which will go nowhere in the Senate and torpedo Trump's "two tier justice" argument), or at the very least Israel/Palestine can make peace and de-ignite the current tension. There's still plenty of time for Biden and Democrats. Heck, they could put Trump in jail in Georgia... but that scenario is looking less likely; most likely case is he pays a six or seven figure fine, pleads guilty/no contest to misdemeanors, RICO charge gets dropped, and he's ordered to write an apology letter that will admittedly make him seethe inside even if it's not actually him writing it. Worse case scenario for Trump is they ban him from being on the ballot in the state of Georgia, which I think would be a fair and equitable punishment (the GOP would have to put a replacement candidate like DeSantis but for Georgia only, to avoid insta-conceding the 16 ECV to Biden), but unfortunately for Fani Willis and the Dems there's no stare decisis for that kind of justice.

All the time you spend with this……..as a deadbeat dad

[ChumpDumper]

Before the SCOTUS their pants in late June last year, red wave 2022 midterm was absolutely 100% in the cards. SCOTUS kind of hit a third rail at the worst possible timing when Biden was disapproved of by 25% on RCP aggregate and gas was over $5 per gallon nationally. The big turning point.

A reverse 2008 style red wave happening in 2024 is absolutely in this cards as of right now, October 2023. When foreign policy, the economy/inflation/energy, and crime are the top issues rather than stuff like abortion and gay marriage and domestic social justice, the conservatives and especially a strongman like Trump absolutely have the advantage.

But who knows, SCOTUS could the bed again by overturning Obergefell v Hodges or the GOP under the new Speakership totally makes asses out of themselves, e.g. by impeaching Biden (which will go nowhere in the Senate and torpedo Trump's "two tier justice" argument), or at the very least Israel/Palestine can make peace and de-ignite the current tension. There's still plenty of time for Biden and Democrats. Heck, they could put Trump in jail in Georgia... but that scenario is looking less likely; most likely case is he pays a six or seven figure fine, pleads guilty/no contest to misdemeanors, RICO charge gets dropped, and he's ordered to write an apology letter that will admittedly make him seethe inside even if it's not actually him writing it. Worse case scenario for Trump is they ban him from being on the ballot in the state of Georgia, which I think would be a fair and equitable punishment (the GOP would have to put a replacement candidate like DeSantis but for Georgia only, to avoid insta-conceding the 16 ECV to Biden), but unfortunately for Fani Willis and the Dems there's no stare decisis for that kind of justice.

You really needed to get out of the prediction business years ago.