I think there's a chance that he doesn't sign or takes the qualifying offer if the team is egregiously bad for the next 3 years with sub 30 win seasons all 4 years of his rookie contract. If he feels like Lebron in Cleveland for example where he has no dependable help whatsoever. But the more likely scenario is that he suffers through this year on a 15 win team, next year the team wins 25-30 games, his third year the team probably makes the play-ins with 35-40 wins, and his 4th year team is probably a 6 seed at 45 wins. By that time he'll be 23, Vassell 27, Sochan will be 24, and he'll have some talented 2nd and 3rd year players surrounding him. No way he asks out in that scenario unless Brian Wright drafts Josh Primo for 3 straight years.
The only wrinkle in this is really OKC. There's a very real chance that Chet wins a le before Victor even sniffs the playoffs and Presti has built a buzzsaw in OKC that will contend for at least the next 10 years around SGA/Chet/JDub. If victor can't see a reasonable path where he can match up with OKC and Chet because of the talent gap, he will probably leave or ask out. It'll be like how Lebron left Cleveland when he figured out that he could never get past Boston because of the talent gap.