Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[TheGreatYacht]

Worst possible night if you’re a Spurs fan, Raps lose and Nets won

[onechance87]

Worst possible night if you’re a Spurs fan, Raps lose and Nets won

Not looking good.Poeltl really a difference maker.I really hope we didnt trade him for a couple of second rounders.
Time well tell i guess.

[Ariel]

Worst possible night if you’re a Spurs fan, Raps lose and Nets won

• If Toronto ends up 8th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 73.7% chance of conveying, but a 0% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.
• If Toronto ends up 7th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 68% chance of conveying, but a 19.7% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.
• If Toronto ends up 6th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 54% chance of conveying, but a 29.8% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.

So basically it depends on whether you prefer a slightly higher chance of conveying (then you want to finish 8th), or a significantly higher chance of maximizing the pick (then you want to finish 6th ), with the happy medium being 7th: almost as good a chance of conveying as 8th (5.7% less), with almost as high a chance of maximizing the pick as 6th.

[TheGreatYacht]

• If Toronto ends up 8th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 73.7% chance of conveying, but a 0% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.
• If Toronto ends up 7th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 68% chance of conveying, but a 19.7% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.
• If Toronto ends up 6th worst (pre-lottery), the pick has a 54% chance of conveying, but a 29.8% chance of ending up with the 7th pick.

So basically it depends on whether you prefer a slightly higher chance of conveying (then you want to finish 8th), or a significantly higher chance of maximizing the pick (then you want to finish 6th ), with the happy medium being 7th: almost as good a chance of conveying as 8th (5.7% less), with almost as high a chance of maximizing the pick as 6th.

Thanks for the info, them staying where they’re at wouldnt be the end of the world. Basketball gods would just be ing us at that point with 68:32 odds in our favor

[mudyez]

No matter what will happen...we will be the luckiest franchise regarding the draft for like...well...eternity!

[CGD]

I rather see Toronto finishing 7th worst with a worst record than Nets than 8th. Odds to get the pick will drop from 74% to 68% but picking before Rockets(they have Nets pick) is more important to me.

Primary playmakers/ballhandlers like Topic, Dillingham and Collier might drop in this draft and be available with the Toronto pick because they're bad fits with most of the bad teams. Detroit, Charlotte, Blazers and Grizzlies already have an important ball dominant guard. A player like Topic doesn't really fit well with these teams. Spurs and Wizards are the only two bad teams in need of a primary ballhandler/playmaker.

If Toronto finish with a better record than Nets, Rockets will pick before Spurs Raptors pick and Houston could easily go with Topic/Dillingham/Collier. Fred VanVleet isn't their long term answer in that role, he is just a stop gap with only one guaranteed year left on his contract.

I agree with this mapping. It’s why I’m also rooting for WAS to get the first over all pick. My sense is they’ll feel pressured to take Sarr there, taking away our main threat at taking the beat pg of the draft before the spurs pick.

assuming the spurs get both picks, to me the question then is: if Risacher is gone by the time they pick (say 3-5), do they take the next best wing with their natural pick or pull the trigger on the PG to be safe?

[CGD]

I’m not gonna be sad if it fails to convey. It’ll be seen as good trade asset if it rolls over and may improve the chances of the Spurs holding on to the ATL picks.

For example, it could be used as the main hook to try to get Herb Jones.

[Atl Spur]

Toronto rather it convey this year…,, if it doesn’t, no sweat. Our 2025 draft possibilities would be bonkers….

[onechance87]

Toronto rather it convey this year…,, if it doesn’t, no sweat. Our 2025 draft possibilities would be bonkers….

Now why would they want that...Please help me understand that.They can use this pick to draft a player
they like or use it to trade for somebody.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Now why would they want that...Please help me understand that.They can use this pick to draft a player
they like or use it to trade for somebody.

Because if they keep this year’s pick they’ll owe the Spurs their 2025 first top 6 protected and they may feel like they’d rather be done with their obligation in a weaker draft. They don’t project to be significantly better next year. Not saying it’s true but it’s possible that’s their thinking unless they plan to tank super hard the next couple of years, which is unlikely.

[exstatic]

I’m not gonna be sad if it fails to convey. It’ll be seen as good trade asset if it rolls over and may improve the chances of the Spurs holding on to the ATL picks.

For example, it could be used as the main hook to try to get Herb Jones.

The lottery is in May. We’ll know if it conveys long before the draft and its associated trade frenzy. If it conveys this year, it’s very likely 7 or 8. If it doesn’t, it could be anything next year. Last time Toronto was in the lottery, they drafted Scotty Barnes, and jumped to the 6 seed the next year, and their pick was #20. If you want a solid pick and trade bargaining chip, you should absolutely want it to convey this year, while they’re crap.

[onechance87]

Because if they keep this year’s pick they’ll owe the Spurs their 2025 first top 6 protected and they may feel like they’d rather be done with their obligation in a weaker draft. They don’t project to be significantly better next year. Not saying it’s true but it’s possible that’s their thinking unless they plan to tank super hard the next couple of years, which is unlikely.

Why do you think its unlikely they wont be worst next few years...They had siakam and anunoby and still sucked.Now they have a bunch
of roleplayers and no stars.Unless they trade for some stars this offseason,I expect them to tank next season to try to get
draft a star.

[Pauleta14]

It's pretty clear to me that if the pick doesn't convey this year Toronto would be stupid not to hard tank next season considering how 25' draft has franchise players potentials.

It better conveys this year for the Spurs

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Why do you think its unlikely they wont be worst next few years...They had siakam and anunoby and still sucked.Now they have a bunch
of roleplayers and no stars.Unless they trade for some stars this offseason,I expect them to tank next season to try to get
draft a star.

Considering the pick protections they’d need to be bottom 2 both in ‘25 and ‘26 to guarantee the pick doesn’t convey. Even if they plan to tank why would they want to be in a position to worry about this when they could be done with the obligation in a bad draft? Again, it’s just a possibility that has a degree of logic to it, that’s all.

[Ariel]

It's pretty clear to me that if the pick doesn't convey this year Toronto would be stupid not to hard tank next season considering how 25' draft has franchise players potentials.

It better conveys this year for the Spurs

I agree that it's better to avoid that risk altogether, but everything Toronto is doing points to them not going for a hard tank: track record, FO statements, already having a player they're building around in Scottie Barnes, trading for Poeltl, re-signing and keeping him, valuing players over picks in the OG to NY trade, trading for Olynyk and extending him, etc. Not saying it can't happen, if they find themselves in this same position by next year's trade deadline they might feel different, but it isn't a given that they will whether you agree or not.

[onechance87]

there is no avoiding it bro...I dont expect our team and memphis to be top 6 worst teams next year.
I can easily see raptors in top 4 worst teams next year.I dont see them being better then the top current
top teams in the east next year.

[Pauleta14]

I agree that it's better to avoid that risk altogether, but everything Toronto is doing points to them not going for a hard tank: track record, FO statements, already having a player they're building around in Scottie Barnes, trading for Poeltl, re-signing and keeping him, valuing players over picks in the OG to NY trade, trading for Olynyk and extending him, etc. Not saying it can't happen, if they find themselves in this same position by next year's trade deadline they might feel different, but it isn't a given that they will whether you agree or not.

I agree. Nothing’s given
+ contrary to Pop their coach actually coaches and make them fight all the time. It’s hard to be top 2 worst team with that type of coach and many promising talents.
we’ll see

[exstatic]

It's pretty clear to me that if the pick doesn't convey this year Toronto would be stupid not to hard tank next season considering how 25' draft has franchise players potentials.

It better conveys this year for the Spurs

Masai isn’t a tanky GM. They were in the lottery in 2021, and selected Barnes. The next year, instead of a multi year tank which would be understandable, they were the #6 seed, and their pick was #20. We made that pick as part of the Thad Young trade , and selected Malakai. They could have kept that pick simply by missing the playoffs, made a lottery pick, then Tanked for Vic in23. They did none of that.

[onechance87]

poeltl just had hand sugerey and will be out,Looks like we never getting the pick

[spurraider21]

It's pretty clear to me that if the pick doesn't convey this year Toronto would be stupid not to hard tank next season considering how 25' draft has franchise players potentials.

It better conveys this year for the Spurs

They won’t be able to full tank. Assuming they re-sign IQ they will have too many solid players to really bottom out barring big injuries. Or something like a Barnes trade which seems unlikely.

[Mr. Body]

With two games separating them, Toronto and Memphis each have twenty games left to go. Memphis has been 3-7 in their last 10 games. With the two recent injuries, Toronto looks much worse than before. Things will go down to the wire.

Tankathon rates only 6 of Toronto's games as being against the top in the league, Memphis as facing 9 games against the top. For Memphis, these include heavy hitters like OKC twice, Denver twice.

Memphis faces seven games against the worst of the league. Unfortunately, these Washington (1), Detroit (2), Charlotte (1).

Toronto faces six games against the worst of the league, including Washington (2), Detroit (1), Portland (1).

Curiously, the Grizzlies face us twice.

(Brooklyn is two games above Toronto and I don't think they catch them.)

The question is whether the Raptors can run out the clock and I don't think they can. Memphis seems oblivious to the fact that they're playing for nothing and ruining their draft stock by one. In the end, it's not a horrible situation, as the pick still has a tick above 50% chance of conveying.

[onechance87]

They won’t be able to full tank. Assuming they re-sign IQ they will have too many solid players to really bottom out barring big injuries. Or something like a Barnes trade which seems unlikely.

And before the season started alot thought they wouldnt be top worst 6 this season.Yet here we are.

[CGD]

The lottery is in May. We’ll know if it conveys long before the draft and its associated trade frenzy. If it conveys this year, it’s very likely 7 or 8. If it doesn’t, it could be anything next year. Last time Toronto was in the lottery, they drafted Scotty Barnes, and jumped to the 6 seed the next year, and their pick was #20. If you want a solid pick and trade bargaining chip, you should absolutely want it to convey this year, while they’re crap.

I’m not as convinced as you are. Teams who may want to trade with the Spurs have had a chance to study this draft enough by now (and internalize its weakness), so it basically comes down to having the right to draft a Filipowski type versus the promise of the unknown.

You talk about a scenario on one side of the spectrum, but the other could also happen with (continued) injuries to key players like Scotty and Jak. The reality is probably in the middle which is probably still a late lotto pick in a draft all the analysts have internalized as far superior.

I think that with a few other things gets you a Herb Jones type.

[Mr. Body]

I mean, missing the second lottery pick this year would suck. We need talent. But we have a very high SRP that may be moved up.

Even losing the Toronto pick next year isn't the worst outcome. I agree that they won't be tremendously ty and aren't tanking. None of their moves indicate tanking. But if we do lose it, then they'll have two years of good draft picks to add to moves moving into 2026.

We already have two picks next year anyway.

[Atl Spur]

Their star ( Barnes ) wants to win right? If Vic can’t be patient in a rookie season ( per media foolishness ) how could Barnes stomach two years of a full tank? Even if they were middle of the road next year, the quality of players are supposed to be greater.