Robert Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[baseline bum]

I simply don't understand people tripping over themselves wanting to acquire Darius Garland or Malik Monk when Dillingham was arguably or very clearly better than them in college and they all have the same size problem.

They'd do anything to get those players but using a single pick in a supposedly weak draft is the worst thing ever.

Make it make sense.

All Monk costs is money they have to spend anyways. Definitely agree on not selling the farm for Garland though.

[baseline bum]

We're talking about 10lbs here, not 50. Or something like 3 inches longer wingspan that's noticable.



If Dillingham had similar college stats to either of those two, he'd be a lock for #1 pick. Maybe #2.
They were obviously higher rated prospects, but it's not like he's got nothing to offer compared to their skillset.

Both are obviously superior playmakers/passers, but it's not like Dillingham isn't good, especially considering his lower usage.
Trae has great range, but his 3pt percentages aren't that great. Some of it is due to his shot selection, but still.
Ja's inability to shoot well from 3pt severly limits his ceiling as the first option.
Dillingham's jumpshot is picture perfect, he's shooting from everywhere and every situation.
As in unlike Trae who barely moves off the ball, Dillingham can also fill that role and run around screens. Due to his speed, he'll be impossible to catch.
I wouldn't rule out him becoming one of the best shooters in the game and developing into a great playmaker.

Don't forget that Ja stayed in college an extra year. His first year stats are worse than Dillingham's.
I'm sure Dillingham would average like 22-24ppg and 5-7 assists if he stayed at Kentucky for one more year.



Agreed except for the Castle bit.
Castle could become a point guard, but he definitely won't be one early on. I think him and Dillingham would be a great duo off the bench.
Everyone keeps thinking about starting lineup fit, but our bench unit is disgustingly bad and the biggest reason for most losses.

I don't think Dillingham gets picked in top10 if we don't take him.

Coming in so much smaller than he was listed significantly raises Dillingham's bust potential IMO. Not nearly as much as Topic's wingspan which puts him in the absolute do not draft territory for me and likely explains why he sucked in Euroleague, but at 6'2" 185 by Year 2 or 3 Dillingham's size wouldn't be a big deal. 6'2" 175 by Year 2 or 3 though seems like even the small PGs will be able to overpower him though. People complain about Garland being small and he's over 190. Also not really talking about starting lineup right now. I don't want Castle and Dillingham together because I want Castle to be groomed to be PG behind Tre and there aren't any minutes for Dillingham then unless you want to dump Tre, which god no I don't want another 22 win season. At 164lbs though Dilly looks like Michael Adams plus 3-4 inches.

[CGD]

I simply don't understand people tripping over themselves wanting to acquire Darius Garland or Malik Monk when Dillingham was arguably or very clearly better than them in college and they all have the same size problem.

They'd do anything to get those players but using a single pick in a supposedly weak draft is the worst thing ever.

Make it make sense.

I don’t think it’s that mind bending. In my view, when it comes down to these small guards, it basically comes down to proof of concept.

The fascinating SI (linked below) lays out the statistical case for why it is becoming increasingly difficult to “stick” as an undersized guard (shorter than 6-foot-2), especially if the player does not have a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +3.0 or higher in college.

In the draft process teams are dealing with so many unknowns about the player that you really can’t afford to ignore more generalized data about the archetype. In contrast, with a Garland or Young, you’ve seen this archetype buck the trend to become effective players.

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfee...ba-draft-small

[R. DeMurre]

The slippery slope debate is always tough with size, but I get the worries about Dillingham because his listed height/weight already represented a floor that would require a lot of other factors to work in order to get a picture of him being successful... so to come in even 12 lbs lighter than that floor had to be at the very least a bit shocking for scouts and FOs. A question for the measurements-don't-matter advocates: If you're a GM and you bring in Dilly for a workout and he weighs in at 161-- that just 3 lbs lighter than what he weighed at the Combine-- do you still dismiss any worries? Or do you say, ok, this is an issue?

[itzsoweezee]

Why is he any further away than other guard prospects in this draft?
The only player who looks like he'd be a solid contributor in a bigger role right away is Carter.

While Dillingham is an awful defender, Sheppard would also be a negative and he surely won't be a point guard right away. Tre would eventually end up as a starter.
And if you look at their games, Sheppard's shot selection is that of a role player, while Dillingham took a lot of first option shots.
We don't know if Castle will ever actually be able to develop into a point guard.
Topic has torn ACL.

I'd argue that Dillingham is less of a prospect than anyone else.
He's got the offensive skillset, full package. It's just about developing physically and translating it.
Others would have to both develop skills they don't have and develop physically, except Castle. But he's so far away from being a point guard, he's definitely also a project.

PATFO keeps gambling with these supposed all-round players who just need to develop their shot and it keeps failing.
It's time to gamble with someone who can actually shoot.

Dillingham/Sheppard are either/or scenario. It's either Sheppard at #4 or Dillingham at #8. Won't get both.

Dillingham can score, but his fundamentals are really poor. He’s not the type of guy that can be a high level role player, which is what he’d need to be playing on a team with wembanyama. He didn’t seem like the type of guy that can contribute without the ball in his hands.

If we’re just comparing other guard prospects, I like Castle and Carter more.

And between Sheppard and Dillingham, I have more confidence in Sheppard’s shooting than Dillingham’s. Sheppard is a catch and shoot guy, while Rob seems to shoot more off the dribble (but I could be wrong). Catch-and-shoot guys are what the spurs need. Not any more of these guys that just pound the ball to death and are unable to adapt to a catch-and-shoot type of role (basically almost everyone on the roster)

[drpill]

Dillingham can score, but his fundamentals are really poor. He’s not the type of guy that can be a high level role player, which is what he’d need to be playing on a team with wembanyama. He didn’t seem like the type of guy that can contribute without the ball in his hands.

If we’re just comparing other guard prospects, I like Castle and Carter more.

And between Sheppard and Dillingham, I have more confidence in Sheppard’s shooting than Dillingham’s. Sheppard is a catch and shoot guy, while Rob seems to shoot more off the dribble (but I could be wrong). Catch-and-shoot guys are what the spurs need. Not any more of these guys that just pound the ball to death and are unable to adapt to a catch-and-shoot type of role (basically almost everyone on the roster)

You are wrong. Rob is great at movement, repositioning, and shooting off the catch. But he also has that self-creation element that Sheppard lacks, and which the Spurs badly need.

[LeBowen]

Dillingham can score, but his fundamentals are really poor.

I disagree. Out of all the lottery guards, only Topic has better vision and traditional playmaking skills.

He’s not the type of guy that can be a high level role player, which is what he’d need to be playing on a team with wembanyama. He didn’t seem like the type of guy that can contribute without the ball in his hands.

Why not? A lot of his threes were assisted, he moves off the ball well. I can't find the stats now, but someone posted it here.
And what's even a role player? This roster needs someone who can break down defenses and create space for others.
Sounds simplistic, but if we have a ballhandler defenders need to chase over the screens, PNR with Wemby is unguardable.

If we’re just comparing other guard prospects, I like Castle and Carter more.

I also like Carter, but if we draft Castle, then I'd want someone with better playmaking skills at #8.
Castle has star potential if he can develop his shot, but that's a big if.

And between Sheppard and Dillingham, I have more confidence in Sheppard’s shooting than Dillingham’s. Sheppard is a catch and shoot guy, while Rob seems to shoot more off the dribble (but I could be wrong). Catch-and-shoot guys are what the spurs need. Not any more of these guys that just pound the ball to death and are unable to adapt to a catch-and-shoot type of role (basically almost everyone on the roster)

I actually don't.
If you're an elite c&s shooter, you're not getting many of those looks in the NBA.
You'll need to shoot while moving, shoot over heavy contests and shoot off the dribble.
Players like McDermott, Belinelli or Re were almost always on the move while receiving the ball and then shot without making a full stop to go into their jumpshot.
Most of Sheppard's shots were textbook c&s, wide open threes against joke college defenses.
And it's kind of strange that someone shooting 52% from 3pt took only 4.4 attempts in 29mpg.

Players who can shoot off the dribble can shoot c&s threes.
Except Wemby, I guess. But he said it's because his arms are too long.

Our current players pound the ball because they don't know what to do with it.
If we talk c&s guys, that should be left for forwards, imo.

[Mr. Body]

Dillingham can score, but his fundamentals are really poor. He’s not the type of guy that can be a high level role player, which is what he’d need to be playing on a team with wembanyama. He didn’t seem like the type of guy that can contribute without the ball in his hands.

If we’re just comparing other guard prospects, I like Castle and Carter more.

And between Sheppard and Dillingham, I have more confidence in Sheppard’s shooting than Dillingham’s. Sheppard is a catch and shoot guy, while Rob seems to shoot more off the dribble (but I could be wrong). Catch-and-shoot guys are what the spurs need. Not any more of these guys that just pound the ball to death and are unable to adapt to a catch-and-shoot type of role (basically almost everyone on the roster)

Fundamentals are poor on offense? Don't think I can agree there. A great thing about Dillingham is that he does not pound the air out of the ball. He makes quick decisions. My favorite thing about him may be how he stampedes close-outs. Basically, as a guy is racing out to get him on a kick-out, he'll already be driving on that guy, if he's not shooting. There's no sitting and deliberating. The decision-making is instant.

And it's kinda funny. He was attacked somewhere for the fact that 70% of his makes were assisted. (First, I'm unsure about this number.) And then now he's attacked for not being a catch-and-shoot guy.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the breakdown was that he hit 52% on spot-ups. Teammate does an action and finds a freed-up Dillingham. He hit over fifty percent of those. Catch-and-shoot was slightly lower, but still very high. Catch-and-shoot meaning that he's moving into the shot as someone passes it to him. It can be very difficult, and some guys are just one of the two. Dillingham was great at every kind of three-point shot. The only one that slipped a bit was when he shot one out of his own action, like pulling up in transition. It was something like 37% or so. Still good, but I think a sign of freewheeling and sometimes taking bad shots. That can be coached.

Finally, his numbers for the year, there was no difference between his guarded and non-guarded three point numbers. They were practically the same (he shot and missed two more guarded threes than un-guarded threes). At least in college, having a hand in his face seemed to have no impact on his shooting whatsoever.

[Mr. Body]

Someone on realgm.com's draft board pulled up the thread on Stephen Curry back in the 2009 draft. You see much of the same arguments. Stephen Curry is too small. He's too small. Guy's too small, he looks like a child. He's going to get killed.

Absolutely not saying Dillingham is Curry. Of course not.

But to me it's the same. Curry dropped down to 7 because of doubts. To be fair, Harden was picked earlier. Minnesota screwed the pooch in taking two other guards (Ricky Rubio, a good pick, and Johnny Flynn, yikes).

Blake Griffin went number one, a good pick. Then Hashem Thabeet, yikes. Tyreke Evans, who is okay at the time but in retrospect yikes.

So a few of the teams made good picks, but the others tanked it.

There is absolutely no reason Detroit shouldn't take Dillingham. Washington probably should.

Again, not saying he's Curry. But he's the Curry in this draft. Where he's going to fall and everyone's going to wonder how the eff that happened.

The realgm thread: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/vie...76177&start=60

[Mr. Body]

I'll finish with this: Dillingham has a high bust potential if he goes to the wrong team. More than almost any other player if he goes to the wrong place he may have no chance.

[LeBowen]

I'll finish with this: Dillingham has a high bust potential if he goes to the wrong team. More than almost any other player if he goes to the wrong place he may have no chance.

I think Klutch is doing everything in their power to get him to Spurs at #8, tbh.
If Spurs or Jazz at #10 don't get him, I think he'd want to fall all the way to Heat at #15.
OKC is obviously not getting him.

To me, his skill is just too much to ignore.
Speed, handles, passing, shooting from every situation, decision making.
The only question mark other than defense is how effective will he be at getting to the rim and drawing fouls.

We keep talking about Spurs needing to take a swing, I'd rather take a swing with Dillingham who can be the next star guard than one of those theoretical forwards who need to fix a dozen things if they're to become high level starters.

[Pauleta14]

what's hurting Dilly is not as much him not being able to work out than others actually doing so and intiriguing/seducing GMs and their brothers.

As far as defense is concerned, I do'nt really believe in the "mental" part of it you'd just have to make a player buy into for players like Dillingham. Players entering the NBA as terrible in defense very rarely ends up even as half decent. First because there's a knack and instictive part in defending that they just don't have, and they may try to give effort on it for a little while but never long or hard enough so you can actually rely on it. They just iinstinctively don't give a , that's not really part of BB for them.

I keep changing my mind.

I was done on Dilli 1st/2nd choice and then I watch a quick film on him and I see 24' Iverson

I agree on the defense, the fact that's he's been lobbying for the Spurs leads me to think he's ready for/not afraid of it. Everybody knows you don't play under Pop if you don't play D.

He'll adapt to the Spurs culture and Wemby is such a cheat code on help D that he'll always be covered

1st Castle or Risacher if available
2nd Dilli (in favour of Reed mainly bc of the ball handling abilities and quick feet that will allow him to create separation at will)

[KingKev]

Not exactly anything new but apparently Dilli and his camp are lobbying hard for us to pick him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...mbanyama-spurs

[Mr. Body]

Not exactly anything new but apparently Dilli and his camp are lobbying hard for us to pick him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...mbanyama-spurs

Stephon Castle: My career could make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte.

Rob Dillingham: My career or make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte.

[LeBowen]

Stephon Castle: My career could make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte, Detroit, Portland, Washington or Atlanta.

Rob Dillingham: My career or make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte, Detroit, Portland, Washington or Atlanta.

Fixed that for you.

[Pauleta14]

Not exactly anything new but apparently Dilli and his camp are lobbying hard for us to pick him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...mbanyama-spurs

I like it

Spurs doesn't only mean Wemby, it also means Pop's coaching and defensive expectations

He wants it and it should mitigate some of the doubts there are regarding his defense imo

[scott]

Dilly seems like the kind of dude who, if we don't draft him after him being pretty open about wanting to come here, will drop 50 on us repeatedly throughout his career. Won't even be mad at him for it.

[CGD]

Dilly seems like the kind of dude who, if we don't draft him after him being pretty open about wanting to come here, will drop 50 on us repeatedly throughout his career. Won't even be mad at him for it.

Don’t worry, Castle will smoother him.

[scott]

Don’t worry, Castle will smoother him.

Even back when Pop cared about defense, there were those guys who just always went off on us. I'm not holding my breath that we're going to smother anyone anytime soon

[Ariel]

Stephon Castle: My career could make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte.

Rob Dillingham: My career or make or break according to whether I go to San Antonio. Please don't send me to Charlotte.

And probably Castle gets picked right before us, and we ignore Dillingham twice. Oh well...

[Dverde]

Dillingham has the potential, it’s just tough to ignore the size and defensive issues. The whole league hunts these liabilities in the playoffs now. I think he would work better being a sixth man.

[lefty20]

Even back when Pop cared about defense, there were those guys who just always went off on us. I'm not holding my breath that we're going to smother anyone anytime soon

Dilly = Michael Redd confirmed

[Uriel]

Not exactly anything new but apparently Dilli and his camp are lobbying hard for us to pick him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...mbanyama-spurs

I’d love to have him at #8 if we can get Risacher at #4.

Risacher and Dillingham is my dream scenario (outside of Risacher and Castle, which is likely impossible without a trade).

[rankingtear]

Krysten Peek insuated Dilly being hidden because of his defense. Ducking 5x5 or 3x3 workout maybe.

[baseline bum]

I’d love to have him at #8 if we can get Risacher at #4.

Risacher and Dillingham is my dream scenario (outside of Risacher and Castle, which is likely impossible without a trade).

Would you do Keldon and #8 for #5 and Fournier if Risacher and Castle are still on the board? I think I probably would.