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We cant and moan for a month that this is a ty draft, and then also be mad that they happened to agree with us and traded out of 8.
I dont mind trading out in principle, but my gripe is the return which leaves me really wanting.
It's impossible to think they didn't have a back-up for Salaun. They just judged the trade better than what was available.
We cant and moan for a month that this is a ty draft, and then also be mad that they happened to agree with us and traded out of 8.
I dont mind trading out in principle, but my gripe is the return which leaves me really wanting.
One other item to potentially infer with PATFO’s mindset - this trade feels like they want to make surefire moves for Wemby, no risks. Feels like they don’t want to draft question marks and pray a couple work out for Wemby. 2025 draft probably much safer in that regard. Castle was one of the most known commodities of this draft, outside of say Clingan or Edey. I don’t think they ever wanted Dilly, they had that trade tee’d up with the TeeWolves (teehe) the whole time. Dilly and everyone else available probably too unknown and expensive for that 8 spot. And not as valuable to them as 2030 swap and 2031 picks to use in a big trade for a known commodity (that’s still within Vic timeline).
Just a thought, will be interesting to see this develop over FA and next couple years.
Just weak. A team with an impressive lack of basketball talent chooses to remain that way. Another soft tank it is then.
I don’t think this was a ty draft for the 6-14 range. I think Dilly or Cody or Carter could have provided value and moved this team forward. I’m not interested in waiting 7 years before an effort is made to make this team good or in some hypothetical trade that won’t ever materialize.
The $$ now versus $$ later, time value of money thing doesn't really apply here sorry. The constraints with any NBA roster are talent within a limited number of roster spots and capspace. You can't just keep all players forever. Juggling those roster constraints does have a time variable.
For better/worse they didn't like the unknown/unproven use of pick/roster spot/capspace now and traded out, which makes it impossible to grade now on value. I believe the average value of a draft pick actually drops most once that pick has been made, as the unknown variable disappears. But yeah, we will all watch that value with Dillingham closely now!
Mark and Cun2 are worse options, though we've already said out pieces on that. The Spurs are not a contender and need to acquire players with these next two or three years in mind, not five to seven years down the road. There's little question who are the better options for that stretch, both in terms of cost and production.
IF Salaun was the target, I think the backup plan was to trade the pick; which is what they did.
Thrilled. With how weak this draft is, I'd much have the future picks over the current value pick. Using the Pelton draft chart, we gave up 2040 points in a weak draft for an asset that could be worth 640-4000 points in the 2031 draft, and a right to swap to an asset that could be between 740-3060 points in the 2030 draft. Given how weak this draft was, and the best case scenario being a good player that we would have to pay in the max to in the 30-31 season, I'd much rather have this outcome. Great job! The potential future outcomes greatly outweigh the present value out of the pick clearly in my book.
And that judgment should be worrisome to you. These picks are worthless now. Rob is a high floor guy who can contribute now. We can’t act like their talent eval is top shelf these days. I just don’t get why some fans are so eager to give the FO a pass here. This is what loser franchises do
Why?
Why spend assets on past-primes players that might help us make the playoffs, but will not help us ring? What do you gain from that, other than missing out on a top prospect from the 2025 draft?
If we are not getting a star that fits Wemby's timeline, I would rather keep developing Vassell, Sochan, Wemby and now Castle, and get a top prospect in 25.
After that, yeah, go make all the win-now moves you like.
All these low post accounts that popped up to justify the trade are very sketchy. I'll bet a couple are from people within the organization, tbh.
In this case, the Spurs are constrained by neither.
The way to grade this trade is not Dillingham versus whomever is taken in 2031. It must be evaluated on the relative value of the picks today, in which case the Spurs got absolutely fleeced. The 2031 pick may end up being the greatest player of all time, in which case it will seem like a great trade - but in reality it will still have been a bad trade at the time, just one that got bailed out by luck. The Spurs have no way of knowing 1) how good the Wolves will be in 7 years 2) how the lotto balls will bounce if they are lucky enough for the pick to be in the lotto or 3) the quality of the talent available in 7 years. The literal only way for this to work out on value for the Spurs is pure luck. Any theoretical trade the Spurs might make with this pick could have been made without this pick. There is no deal that hinges upon the Spurs throwing in the 2031 Wolves pick.
And they got horrible value in return for. Hence, the comment about a lack of preparation.
It's like going to buy steaks with $100 bill... and then coming home with $20 of ground beef that you paid $100 for because the shopkeeper couldn't make change.
That's a strawman argument. And your value is wrong. Spurs are betting that Twolves picks will be strong twice by then. Also consider money saved now could mean different positives, either one bullock type deal, or getting one or two players the spurs actually like via free agency or trade.
Let's go by Pelton's chart.
You give up 2040 points today.
Here is an article that lays out the historical outcome for Swaps. They usually end up having the value of the 36th pick in the draft. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/1...aft-swap-picks So there is 540 points.
The 31 pick may be worth 640-4000... what you are leaving out is that every year into the future significantly reduces the point value of picks.
In reality, you just traded 2040 points for around 500-700 points. Great job.
We drafted Rob for Minnesota; I'm guessing he wasn't going to be drafted after we drafted Castle. It will be interesting to see next season who we missed out on in the rest of the 1st round because our FO deemed no one worth drafting.
I doubt the Spurs have any idea or even give a crap where Minnesota will be in 2030, this was about saving money next year.
regardless if Dilly is your preferred pick or not, we all agree we need immediate shooting, penetration, and self creation help and Dilly has all that in Spades. At the very very least we need an elite spark plug off the bench and Dilly could’ve solved that this year. They ed up by trading him. Plain and simple.
Been around a long time. Enjoy reading the messages but don’t post often. Throughout the entire process developed no real strong hope one way or another other than wanting Castle, which was why all the opinions and takes were so interesting. I’m sure you noticed when they flashed the Spurs think tank RC and Pop were there. I wasn’t 100% sure but I thought I saw Timmy there too. I really don’t think Wright is calling on the shots at this point. Like everything else for the Spurs it looks like a grooming process. If I’m correct I trust RC & Pop.
And that’s ing scary
Dillingham sucks
I replied in the other thread but you and Kram are fundamentally misrepresenting the value of a swap. Both of you are only looking at it from a value at execution rather than the added value of the options contract itself. Yes we will be paying for time decay, but given what 2040 points buys us today, I'm fine taking the risk. The floor value is 640, the ceiling value is 7060. 100% fine with that investment.
Why would anyone look to the 2025 draft as the saving grace when it's still the same people in charge evaluating prospects and making picks?
If they don't win the lottery and have the consensus prospect made obvious to them, why on earth would anyone have faith in them being able to identify and draft appropriately?
they learned nothing from Primo, probably still tell themselves that they were 100% right on the basketball only to be screwed over by bad luck off the court behavior.
These guys don't know what they're doing
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