Who are we tanking for?

[baseline bum]

I'm not a stats guy, but can you say that we have a ~23.2% (add up the chances for each set of top 4 and divide by 2) chance of a top four pick, assuming we and ATL end up 9/10? What gets me about the "soft tank" is how the flattened odds would cut us out from picks 5-8, where there is going to be particular good value in this draft. We're going all or nothing on a 1 in 5 chance for Wemby's future. That's not inspiring at all.

Agreed, I'd love pick 5 or 6 but not doable with this team unless Wemby misses significant time.

[scott]

So would you consider 27 ATL off limits as a replacement for the 28+swap? I'd definitely offer your plan first but would pivot to my proposal if needed.

I'd be fine with that as well, I just do the 28 because it fits Utah's war chest better. Utah already has 4 picks in 2027. If it made the deal, I'd let Ainge pick which one he wants... I'm indifferent at that point because my core is going to be Wemby + Lauri + Devin + Castle + SA25 + ATL25.

[vy65]

All you are saying is that you do not understand and using that as an excuse to be a coward.

"Don't be a get" is an awesome take. Yes, bro, I lift.

[exstatic]

Not to toot my own horn, but an undercurrent in several threads has been the merits of "tanking" in 2025 to secure a top pick in the "Cooper Flagg" sweepstakes. So, that begs the question of, what are the chances that blowing the 2024-2025 season actually garners a Robin to Wemby's Batman.

As it stands right now, with much of free agency resolved, the following teams could be said to be "better" in the tanking sweepstakes:

1. Brooklyn
2. Utah
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte

That leaves us in a tier with Toronto and Atlanta for 8, 9, and 10. And, that is to say nothing about injuries derailing the Clippers, Warriors, or Lakers, making them fall into the remaining three slots of the top-ten. At its most charitable, meaning not even accounting for any of these possible risks, that leaves:

8. S/ATL
9. S/ATL
10. Toronto.

Assuming that scenario to be the most likely outcome, our 2025 odds would be as follows:

#8
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Avg)
Odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4. >0.0 7.0

#9
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (Avg)
Odds: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3.0. 0.1 >0.0 8.0

Those are the odds. 6% and 4.5% respectively. I know it's too early to tell, but just going off of Tankathon, the projected #7 and #8 picks (assuming the averages hold out) are Khaman Maluch and Tre Johnson. Are either of those two vaunting us into contention at the start of 2025-2026? Tankathon has us taking Liam McNeely at 9 and Egor Demin at 10. Again, who here wants to articulate how any (or a combination) of these 4 will vaunt us into perennial le contention within the next 3-5 years?

Again, I understand it's too early to tell. But it's not too early to evaluate the team's strategy going into the 2024-2025 season. There has been no meaningful move to get us into the top 5 worse teams (e.g., trade Vassell/Sochan/Keldon for future draft capital). By all appearances, they're trying to improve by drafting Castle and signing CP3. So, again, what is it that we're doing as we head into next season?

I get that there is a lot of prognostication in this exercise, and that there is a meaningful chance this thread is thrown around next year as proof that "the tank worked." But there is a greater probability that these numbers hold out, and we're looking at two people no one has ever heard of as being the help Wemby needs. So again, who are we tanking for?

We don’t need to win ,just jump into the top 4. Anyone there will be nice.

Pick 8 26.2%
Pick 9 20.2%

So,unless we do something stupid like trade the ATL pick to Danny Ainge, we have a 46.4% chance of hitting a top 4 pick with one of our two FRPs in your scenario.

I’ve hesitated to bring this up, but we may need those odds to get another franchise player. It’s a pretty bleak outlook, but what if Wemby is Porzingis? Kristaps played 72 games as a rookie, 28 minutes per. Then, the wheels literally fell off. He’s never played 70 games since,hovering between 43 and 65 games, with a lost season sandwiched in there. Food for thought.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

"Don't be a get" is an awesome take. Yes, bro, I lift.

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.

[vy65]

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.

Bro, I'm talking about odds and draft strategy, not whatever lame Jordan B. Peterson men's awareness schtick you're on. /Unsubscribe

[vy65]

We don’t need to win ,just jump into the top 4. Anyone there will be nice.

Pick 8 26.2%
Pick 9 20.2%

So,unless we do something stupid like trade the ATL pick to Danny Ainge, we have a 46.4% chance of hitting a top 4 pick with one of our two FRPs in your scenario.

I’ve hesitated to bring this up, but we may need those odds to get another franchise player. It’s a pretty bleak outlook, but what if Wemby is Porzingis? Kristaps played 72 games as a rookie, 28 minutes per. Then, the wheels literally fell off. He’s never played 70 games since,hovering between 43 and 65 games, with a lost season sandwiched in there. Food for thought.

I'll leave it to better people than me, but I don't think odds stack like that. In other words, I think you equalize the odds between 26.2 and 20.2 (~23%) and that's what you have for a top four. Otherwise, you're picking 8th and worse. But I could be wrong about that. For the record, I'd be happy with an almost 50% chance of a top 4 pick.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Who is the #2? Please tell me their name, and what the front office is doing to maximize the possibility of landing them.

Otherwise, the strategy you've articulated is the same as the guy who does a bunch of blow and throws 10k on red at the roulette table.

You are just like Chinook with the bull distractions. You were also talking about how not understanding was your justification as you do here.

[vy65]

You are just like Chinook with the bull distractions. You were also talking about how not understanding was your justification as you do here.

Hope you're enjoying retirement.

[exstatic]

I'll leave it to better people than me, but I don't think odds stack like that. In other words, I think you equalize the odds between 26.2 and 20.2 (~23%) and that's what you have for a top four. Otherwise, you're picking 8th and worse. But I could be wrong about that. For the record, I'd be happy with an almost 50% chance of a top 4 pick.

No. We have all of our number combinations and all of Atlantas. Its additive.

[benefactor]

Just don't respond to that sucker. He's obviously koriwhat jr

[spurraider21]

Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.

link?

[spurraider21]

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.

this is not profound

[vy65]

No. We have all of our number combinations and all of Atlantas. Its additive.

Again, I'm talking out my ass, but I don't think that's right. You can have two chances at a coin flip, each being 50% of being heads. What you're saying is that if you get two flips, you have a 100% chance of getting heads.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Just don't respond to that sucker. He's obviously koriwhat jr

Does this mean I cannot be a part of the clique?

[vy65]

Wilt Chamberlain cries at the sacrifice of our lord and savior Jesus Christ. All while getting herpes from bedding 100 women.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

this is not profound

you understand. it is an individual act of cowardice.

[exstatic]

Again, I'm talking out my ass, but I don't think that's right. You can have two chances at a coin flip, each being 50% of being heads. What you're saying is that if you get two flips, you have a 100% chance of getting heads.

Coin flip is a bad analogy. More like a lottery ticket. If you buy one number, you have a 1 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. If you buy a second ticket in the same drawing, you have a 2 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. We have two tickets, and the odds are much better.

[vy65]

Coin flip is a bad analogy. More like a lottery ticket. If you buy one number, you have a 1 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. If you buy a second ticket in the same drawing, you have a 2 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. We have two tickets, and the odds are much better.

That's incorrect:

Of course, someone has to win the jackpot. But don't let that certainty cloud your judgment. The rules of probability dictate you do not increase your lottery odds by playing more frequently, nor by betting larger amounts on each drawing. Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has independent probability not altered by the frequency of play or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.

https://www.investopedia.com/managin...same%20drawing.

[benefactor]

Does this mean I cannot be a part of the clique?

Oh look...more weak trolling from 15 years ago. Roll out another one grandad. We are all here for your arsenal of 2010 clap back game

[benefactor]

you understand. it is an individual act of cowardice.

That's it buddy. Call people cowards. Koriwhat jr indeed

[vy65]

Bene, doing the lord's work as always

[Wilt Chamberlain]

That's it buddy. Call people cowards. Koriwhat jr indeed

If your response to not understanding something is to give up and try to lose with Victor Wembanyama in his second year I see it as cowardice.

There is a term for fear of the unknown for a reason.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Oh look...more weak trolling from 15 years ago. Roll out another one grandad. We are all here for your arsenal of 2010 clap back game

Well if 15 years ago you were in HS sure.

You are behaving like a clique. I assume this kori is an undesirable of the clique's history.

People act like cowards too.

[exstatic]

That's incorrect:

Of course, someone has to win the jackpot. But don't let that certainty cloud your judgment. The rules of probability dictate you do not increase your lottery odds by playing more frequently, nor by betting larger amounts on each drawing. Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has independent probability not altered by the frequency of play or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.

https://www.investopedia.com/managin...same%20drawing.

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.