Who are we tanking for?

[vy65]

To put the dice example more accurately:

If the Spurs had the 8 and 9 seed:

Dice Throw 1, Spurs have 105 out of 1000 combinations.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 2: Spurs have 105 out of 999 combination.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 3: Spurs have 105 out of 998 combinations.

Dice throw 4: Spurs have 105 out of 997 combinations.

The tricky part of it is that after throw one, there is one combination that gets thrown out (Because it's already chosen) but there is also between 4 and 139 OTHER combinations that if picked, are invalidated, because the owner of those combinations already got picked. So your odds of landing the 4th pick are impacted by who wins pick 1-3. If Seeds 1-3 get those picks, then on roll 4 you have 105 out of 580 possible winning combos, but if Seeds 12, 13, 14 somehow jumped up, you'd only have 105 out of 970 winning combinations.

But how does that get us 400% odds at Cooper Flagg?

[vy65]

You guys clearly never understood the point of Schrodinger's cat. To help, in this case the box has not opened and you are discussing what will happen after it is opened.

We need to understand Heisenberg as a precursor to understanding the NBA ing draft

[vy65]

Look bro, I’ve read Eisenstein. I know Bohr. I tutored Penrose. I’ve watched Oppenheimer. Twice. I can tell you without a doubt we have 900% odds at the #1 pick.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Look bro, I’ve read Eisenstein. I know Bohr. I tutored Penrose. I’ve watched Oppenheimer. Twice. I can tell you without a doubt we have 900% odds at the #1 pick.

Wow are you insecure. Hopefully the clique reassures you soon.

We are discussing probability. You are describing what happens over the course of the 2 hours that a lottery happens and insisting it matters. You are arguing against the view before the event happens outside of those two hours when trades actually happen.

I don't care if you understand it. Seems simple to me.

[vy65]

Wow are you insecure. Hopefully the clique reassures you soon.

We are discussing probability. You are describing what happens over the course of the 2 hours that e lottery happens and insisting it matters. You are arguing against the view before the event happens outside of those to hours when trades actually happen.

I don't care if you understand it. Seems simple to me.

“God doesn’t play dice, but I know how to solve the 2025 NBA draft”

Schrdinger’s ct

[TDomination]

It's the Spurs fan copium for when we are a terrible team again next season. Then we will trade our 2025 lottery pick for the 2044 NBA draft FRP.

yes but it will be unprotected so its worth it

[benefactor]

Insecure. Coward. Clique. References and analogies.

Allow me to stand back and let you through. Please continue.

[benefactor]

In fact Pawpaw, isn't it about time to freshen up that coffee pot? Id hate for you to lose any of your edge.

[Pauleta14]

My hope for 25' is to be able to trade as up as possible with 3 1RPs

Only a season ending injury will make us tank so let's forget about a direct lottery pick imo

We need 3 to get a top5 maybe

[vy65]

The collapse of the wave function has as much to do with the draft’s odds as knowing how to assemble a microchip has to do with the recipe for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

Now I understand why Trump will be our next president.

Humanity = ed

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Insecure. Coward. Clique. References and analogies.

Allow me to stand back and let you through. Please continue.

Walks like a duck, talks like a duck, quacks like a duck.

Like and thank your clique-mates some more while trying to stigmatize me.

If it's old to you that just means you haven't changed.

[exstatic]

We need Ariel to do the exact math, because I'm too lazy to do it, but no - the having the 8th and 9th pick (pre-lotto) do not give you a 46.4% chance at getting a Top 4 pick, the same way that they don't give you a 153.4% chance of not getting a Top 4 pick (which is the sum of the odds of all other possible picks).

The same way if you had 10 of the 14 top pick odds, you would not have a 375.9% of getting a Top 4 pick.

By the same token, if you had picks 11-14 (pre lottery), you would not have a 23.7% chance of getting a Top 4 pick. This is in part because hitting on one of them excludes the possibility you can hit on the others. You can add up the odds for any one team and you can add up the odds for any one pick, but you can't do it ulatively ‘across teams (rows) and picks (columns).

C'mon exstatic, use your brain man.

Got it. If we have our pick and Atlanta’s, we have 4% and 6.5% of getting #1 overall. That’s 40 balls for pick 9 and 65 balls for pick 8. There is another distinct position that has 105 balls in the hopper, position #5. The odds for that # of balls to hit top 4, according to the NBA home page on TaT is 42.1%, which would account for me missing the bolded part of your post.

[benefactor]

Walks like a duck, talks like a duck, quacks like a duck.

Boomerspeak

Which one are you going to break out next? If my aunt had a she'd be my uncle?

[Wilt Chamberlain]

The collapse of the wave function has as much to do with the draft’s odds as knowing how to assemble a microchip has to do with the recipe for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

Now I understand why Trump will be our next president.

Humanity = ed

Does the calculation for the wave function start before or after an event? Could said event be analogous to an event like the start of the lottery?

Of course it can.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Boomerspeak

Which one are you going to break out next? If my aunt had a she'd be my uncle?

If you need to categorize me to insult me that says quite a lot. I was going more for simple so you could more easily understand.

[vy65]

Got it. If we have our pick and Atlanta’s, we have 4% and 6.5% of getting #1 overall. That’s 40 balls for pick 9 and 65 balls for pick 8. There is another distinct position that has 105 balls in the hopper, position #5. The odds for that # of balls to hit top 4, according to the NBA home page on TaT is 42.1%, which would account for me missing the bolded part of your post.

So what happens to those 65 balls if one of the 40 is selected? Do they still represent 6.5% of hitting #1 when they really have 0%.

Maybe this is like Schrodinger’s cat…

[vy65]

Does the calculation for the wave function start before or after an event? Could said event be analogous to an event like the start of the lottery?

Of course it can.

[vy65]

Pawpaw’s ozempic prescription not only cured his ‘beetus, but it learned him quantum field theory too. Move over black spurs gm, there’s a new sheriff in town.

[exstatic]

So what happens to those 65 balls if one of the 40 is selected? Do they still represent 6.5% of hitting #1 when they really have 0%.

Maybe this is like Schrodinger’s cat…

No, but they have a 19.2% shot at 2-4, the odds of pick 8, positions 2,3,4.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Peanut butter jelly sandwiches is about your level.

[benefactor]

If you need to categorize me to insult me that says quite a lot. I was going more for simple so you could more easily understand.

Look out people.... It's the "I kept it simple because you aren't smart" insult.

Jesus abuelo you are digging deep aren't you

[NASpurs]

Pawpaw’s ozempic prescription not only cured his ‘beetus, but it learned him quantum field theory too. Move over black spurs gm, there’s a new sheriff in town.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Look out people.... It's the "I kept it simple because you aren't smart" insult.

Jesus abuelo you are digging deep aren't you

I had just gotten hammered for bringing up Schrodingers's cat. You aren't going to like anything I do.

I am not sure what you are feeling good about.

[vy65]

Peanut butter jelly sandwiches is about your level.

in’ got rid of that black muslim prez-eh-dent, learned me how to solve for the amplitude in the wave function, got me a in new waterski and matchin tattoo, and now I’m cruisin on spurstalk clowning on fools and cruisin for babes. Life. Is. Good. #saltlife

[Wilt Chamberlain]

in’ got rid of that black muslim prez-eh-dent, learned me how to solve for the amplitude in the wave function, got me a in new waterski and matchin tattoo, and now I’m cruisin on spurstalk clowning on fools and cruisin for babes. Life. Is. Good. #saltlife

all this blather because you do not understand intermediate probability.

Now that is taken care of, it is valid to add the probabilities by round when looking at FRP before the lottery begins.