Steel and aluminum tariffs...

[CosmicCowboy]

Duh, TSMC's $40 billion Arizona project has been pushed back to 2025 due to a shortage of local expertise, with the second factory now slated for operation between 2027 and 2028.

Yeah, even when it opens it won't get the hot chips. Taiwan's guarantee US will commit to defending them.

[Ef-man]

Yeah, even when it opens it won't get the hot chips. Taiwan's guarantee US will commit to defending them.

Sure Taiwan wants US backing but hot chips in 2023/4 are just regular chips in 2025/6 thanks to Moore’s law.

Unless you are a senior executive chip manufacturing business, you can only guess at what they will or not produce for critical industries or civilian use.

Plus, these new US plants are designed with an eye towards for next gen chips. For example, Intel plans to regain the le of producing the world's fastest chips from TSMC later this year, leveraging its Intel 18A manufacturing technology.

[SnakeBoy]

Go Joe Go!

[RandomGuy]

Go Joe Go!

a rare appearance.

How are you these days, old man?

(edit: Sorry dude, if you want to pwn this liberal, you will have to use the full link, I can't see xitter for some odd reason on this msg board)

I assume this is some bull about inflation or the border, because that is what you have been told to be outraged about by the overlords in your media bubble.

Did I guess right?

[Thread]

a rare appearance.

How are you these days, old man?

(edit: Sorry dude, if you want to pwn this liberal, you will have to use the full link, I can't see xitter for some odd reason on this msg board)

I assume this is some bull about inflation or the border, because that is what you have been told to be outraged about by the overlords in your media bubble.

Did I guess right?

He was just checkin' assholes, RG, and you immediately surfaced.

[RandomGuy]

Go Joe Go!

Again, guessing here. You are incredibly gullible, so I have to assume that your post has to do with the outrage de jour on Fox "news". So easily manipulated. smh

[Thread]

Again, guessing here. You are incredibly gullible, so I have to assume that your post has to do with the outrage de jour on Fox "news". So easily manipulated. smh

...as you are by State sponsored CNN.

[SnakeBoy]

a rare appearance.

How are you these days, old man?

Very well, enjoying the lib meltdown

Nice to see you starting new threads even if they are over the top fear mongering.

(edit: Sorry dude, if you want to pwn this liberal, you will have to use the full link, I can't see xitter for some odd reason on this msg board)

I assume this is some bull about inflation or the border, because that is what you have been told to be outraged about by the overlords in your media bubble.

Did I guess right?

Here ya go RG

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/u...mid=tw-nytimes

Thread le should've given you a clue what is was about

[RandomGuy]

Very well, enjoying the lib meltdown

Nice to see you starting new threads even if they are over the top fear mongering.



Here ya go RG

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/u...mid=tw-nytimes

Thread le should've given you a clue what is was about

Ah. "the lib meltdown" that includes a lot of conservatives talking about what a danger Trump is?

Even you must have noticed the parade of lifetime repbulicans that are going to vote for Biden.

Anyhoo, glad you are having fun, even misguided fun.

And yeah, tariffs are bad, even when Biden does it.

Fun though is that this will speed up the collapse of China, so I am wiling to pay a bit extra for that.

[Thread]

Ah. "the lib meltdown" that includes a lot of conservatives talking about what a danger Trump is?

Even you must have noticed the parade of lifetime repbulicans that are going to vote for Biden.

Anyhoo, glad you are having fun, even misguided fun.

And yeah, tariffs are bad, even when Biden does it.

Fun though is that this will speed up the collapse of China, so I am wiling to pay a bit extra for that.

...you've nary other choice, RG.

[Winehole23]

there's an old fashioned technical term for this kind of statement

it's a lie

tariffs wouldn't work if they didn't increase the cost of the targeted goods in the country of destination.

tariffs are inherently inflationary, this isn't even a controversy.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1827713035018153997


https://x.com/Acyn/status/1827713035018153997

[Winehole23]

tariffs are inflationary

https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1828788696390508733

[Winehole23]

Trump agreed with this during the campaign, but the urge to disagree with an opponent can be strong

U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday followed through on his pledge to block Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel, citing concerns the deal could hurt national security.


The move, long expected, cuts off a critical lifeline of capital for the beleaguered American icon, which has said it would have to idle key mills without the nearly $3 billion in promised investment from the Japanese firm.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-bl...131252956.html

[Winehole23]

Noah Smith is neither pro- nor anti-tariff -- indeed he thinks it's possible tariffs can nudge China toward more domestic consumption and away from overproduction of exports -- but he also thinks there are possible drawbacks, like we've already seen. US farmers got creamed with Trump's last round of tariffs and received direct public subsidies of tens of billions of dollars as a result.

Pettis assumes that because America runs a big trade deficit, tariffs would pump up U.S. manufacturing so much that not only U.S. GDP, but also U.S. consumption, would end up increasing. He writes:

By taxing consumption to subsidize production, modern-day tariffs would redirect a portion of U.S. demand toward increasing the total amount of goods and services produced at home. That would lead U.S. GDP to rise, resulting in higher employment, higher wages, and less debt. American households would be able to consume more, even as consumption as a share of GDP declined.

But Trump’s tariffs in his first term didn’t do anything of the kind. Industrial production actually declined after Trump put up his tariffs:








There was no surge in factory construction, either; that only happened once Biden came into office and enacted industrial policies (the CHIPS Act and the IRA).
There wasn’t much action in the trade deficit either. If you squint really hard you can see a small improvement right before the pandemic began, but then a total collapse afterward:




What happened? Two things. First, the U.S. dollar appreciated in response to the tariffs, cancelling out at least part of the effect. Second, U.S. manufacturers suffered when they had to pay a lot more for parts and components. These are very general problems with tariffs as a policy, and I discussed both of them in more detail in this post:

Instead of quoting my earlier post, I’ll quote Matthew C. Klein, who co-authored the book Trade Wars are Class Wars with Pettis, and who recently wrote an op-ed explaining how tariffs could easily backfire:

Spending on manufacturing imports tends to track the business cycle and new orders for American-made goods. Imposing “universal” tariffs high enough to force those imports to fall by more than 40 percent to close the trade deficit would likely involve a severe economic downturn that hurts Americans more than anyone else. To avoid that pain, domestic production of those same goods would have to rise enough to cover the gap — and rise fast enough to prevent shortages and inflation. The experience of the pandemic suggests that this is not a realistic option…

Another counterintuitive impact is that the dollar tends to become more expensive in response to the imposition — or threat — of new tariffs…[This] means that goods made in the U.S. become more expensive for customers in the rest of the world. The net effect is that tariffs often hit exports more than imports, even when foreign trade partners fail to retaliate.

Pettis doesn’t really seem to grapple with either point. It’s possible that he believes that Trump’s first-term tariffs were a failure because China simply rerouted its exports throughVietnam; in this case, putting tariffs on all other countries, as Pettis recommends, would close off that loophole. But that still wouldn’t deal with the question of exchange rate appreciation. Unless tariffs on the rest of the world are so huge that they overwhelm the dollar’s ability to adjust to compensate, some sort of financial intervention to keep the dollar weak would be necessary in order to make tariffs effective. Pettis has suggested taxing capital inflows, which could do the trick,5 but this kind of intervention doesn’t seem on the table for the Trump administration.

And Pettis also fails to grapple with the intermediate goods problem. The U.S. would not benefit from going back to the kind of quasi-autarkic economy it was during World War 2 — technology has changed too much for any country to prosper while walling itself off from the rest of the world. The U.S. can onshore and harden its supply chains to some extent, but no matter what, U.S. manufacturers are still going to have to order some materials, parts, and components overseas. I haven’t yet seen Pettis suggest a solution to this problem, or think hard about the failure of Trump’s tariffs to increase industrial production in the U.S. six years ago.

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-pe...and-the-second

[Winehole23]

Farmers lost big on the last go round and they will again.

Trump's solution then as now is to directly subsidize farmers.

Trump's pick to lead the USDA on Thursday, Brooke Rollins, said she would consider direct payments to farmers to offset losses from proposed tariffs, modeled after the approach taken in Trump's first term, when farmers were paid billions during a trade war with China.

[Winehole23]

Canada and Mexico bow up

Canada’s Stelco has been telling US-based consumers it is pausing sales quotes, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mexico-based steel suppliers also stopped taking orders for material this week as they await potential action from Trump, according to Flack Global Metals, a large buyer.

Canada is the top foreign import source of steel into the US and Mexico is the third largest, according to US Commerce Department data. The US consumed about 91 million tons of steel in 2023, with imports accounting for about 27% of that total demand, according to research by Morgan Stanley.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canad...171330059.html

[Winehole23]

Cleveland-Cliffs, the second-largest US steel producer, agreed to buy Canada-based Stelco last year. When asked last week at a briefing about the possibility that Trump would slap tariffs on the company’s newly owned Canadian steel, CEO Lourenco Goncalves said he will abide by Trump’s policies.

“President Trump will do what President Trump wants to do. He has a plan, and I will play accordingly,” Goncalves said. “I’m a big boy. I bought Stelco knowing that Stelco is in Canada. And you know what? America first.”

[Winehole23]

higher prices for construction and manufacturing coming

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

higher prices for coffee and sugar coming in Donald Trump's war against breakfast

[Winehole23]

I hear a lot of fresh cut flowers come to the US from Colombia -- Trump just laid new trade duties on Valentine's Day

[Winehole23]

higher prices for coffee and sugar coming in Donald Trump's war against breakfast

they were coming anyway, but DJT's hair trigger retaliation didn't help

[Winehole23]

will Trump tax lumber needed for rebuilding NC and LA?

he'll literally be mulcting disasters if he does

Trump’s Lumber Tariffs and Disaster Recovery - WSJ

[Winehole23]

Trump accepted Colombia's demand -- to treat its citizens with basic dignity -- and dropped all of his.

He caved.

[Winehole23]