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This is so typical of you.
Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?
You just can't help yourself
Where did Ef-man go?
Fringe liar? What does that even mean? What are you claiming I'm lying about?“Based on regression analysis using Gallup's party ID and historical election results”
And you are a fringe liar
This is so typical of you.
Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?
You just can't help yourself
Where did Ef-man go?
Which polls good now?
The topic is about winning the popular vote, not the EC.This is so typical of you.
Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?
You just can't help yourself
Where did Ef-man go?
Do these polls show Yam s winning the popular vote?
Idiot
Those are National polls you ing idiotThe topic is about winning the popular vote, not the EC.
Do these polls show Yam s winning the popular vote?
Idiot
Might as well just skip answering these and save yourself from more embarrassment you ing dunce.
National polls (excluding your fringe polls) do not show Yam s winning the popular vote, idiotThose are National polls you ing idiot
Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?National polls (excluding your fringe polls) do not show Yam s winning the popular vote, idiot
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?
Forum dunce forum duncing
Now you start with the answer me
The national polls do not show Yam s winning the popular vote, idiot!!! Your fringe Nate Silvers might.
Do you know the difference between winning the popular vote vs EC? That was the discussion I was having with MM or are you that stupid to not understand?
Forum idiot crying muh National polls
Muh answer me, answer me answer me!!!!
TSA isn't posting Nate Silver stuff anymore.
One has to wonder why.
Probably no longer fringy enough for him or Nate blocked him after a text wall of "answer me's!"
I have to ask you multiple times because you make idiotic statements/claims and then run from them when called out.Now you start with the answer me
The national polls do not show Yam s winning the popular vote, idiot!!! Your fringe Nate Silvers might.
Do you know the difference between winning the popular vote vs EC? That was the discussion I was having with MM or are you that stupid to not understand?
Forum idiot crying muh National polls
You claimed Trump winning the popular vote was wishcasting. I said Trump was tied in several National polls therefore Trump winning the popular vote is not wishcasting at this point. I never claimed those two National polls showed Trump winning the popular vote. You can't even keep track of your own stupidity.
I missed that
MM brought up Trump losing the EC and you said he was wishcasting another red wave. How stupid are you?
Wrong, you know that R's have not won the popular vote in ages and the polls do not show him ahead in the popular vote, idiot.I have to ask you multiple times because you make idiotic statements/claims and then run from them when called out.
You claimed Trump winning the popular vote was wishcasting. I said Trump was tied in several National polls therefore Trump winning the popular vote is not wishcasting at this point. I never claimed those two National polls showed Trump winning the popular vote. You can't even keep track of your own stupidity.
Stop trying to change the goalpost.
muh National posts
No goalpost was changed by me and the previous post prove it. There is no point to continue this discussion as it's clear you either aren't smart enough or are purposely lying.Wrong, you know that R's have not won the popular vote in ages and the polls do not show him ahead in the popular vote, idiot.
Stop trying to change the goalpost.
muh National posts
Yam s is not leading in the popular vote polls (fringe polls excluded) and implying so is wish casting.
Your capitulation is duly noted.
Eh, with much of CA/NY/IL along with FL/TX swinging pretty substantially to the right compared to 2016 & 2020 (won't change the electoral outcomes in any of those states), but the 7-8 key swing states holding pretty much similar give or take a few percent compared to 2016/2020, I think all four scenarios are in play:
-Trump wins election and popular vote (20%)
-Trump loses popular vote, wins election (30%)
-Trump loses election and popular vote (30%)
-Trump wins popular vote, loses election (20%)
As for the Senate races the polls are DEFINITELY underestimating the GOP candidates in pretty much every case, in some cases substantially you'll see on election night. Or, polls there could (rightfully) tighten later into October. The shy Moreno, McCormick, Rogers, Hovde, even Lake voter is very real. Moreno was supposed to lose the primary to Dolan and he won by >20%. McCormick was supposed to lose to Dr. Oz AND Kathy Barnette by a wide margin in the May 17, 2022 primary but came up like 600 votes short even with the Trump, national GOP and McConnell endorsements going for Dr. Oz.
What makes you think CA is going to swing to the right for Trump after he raised their taxes?
Odds will be more like
- Trump wins election and popular vote (5%)
- Trump loses popular vote, wins election (45%)
- Trump loses election and popular vote (50%)
- Trump wins popular vote, loses election (0%)
Will Hunting the most objective, active, insider Democrat on this message board who actually knows the politicians and is in a way a (D) internal but fair, has said the same exact thing
just look at 2022 compared to 2020, the margin was under 20% and a lot of the localized races went (R)... there's a large chunk of the population, largely suburbanites and working class Latinos, that are pissed with the Newsom administration and various cost of living increases through the roof, lifestyle decreases, overall societal decay in CA that's happened in the past decade-plus... the fact that they can't write off their 11-13.3% state income tax anymore since 2018 isn't going to be what they vote on tbh. It's much more of an issue in, say, the suburban Minnesota twin cities, though (D) state government including the VP nominee himself could also lower the tax burden there too tbh.
I don't think it's a zero percent chance Trump wins election and loses popular vote. 2022 was a decent example of how it could happen. Not saying midterms are everything, but that's essentially what 2022 equated to on the federal level.
This is the goalpost move. You're such a dunce.
It raped the GOP in California in 2020, don't see why people would all of a sudden forget Trump raised their taxes.
There is no way, the electoral college is such welfare to the GOP. It's like if you played the Lakers and if at the end of 48 minutes the Lakers are ahead, Lakers win. If the game is tied, Lakers win. If you finish up 1 the Lakers win. If you finish up 2 the Lakers win. If you finish up 3 or 4 you flip a coin to see who wins. If you finish up 5 or more, you (probably) win.
Because that's not a top five issue in California anymore. Neither is abortion for any state that has abortion already enshrined permanently into legality like CA, NY, IL etc so the voters on the left that vote on that issue will be much less enthused compared to states where it's either on the ballot, volatile, or outright banned.
I smiled at the analogy because it reminded me of my childhood (the refs were always good for spotting the Lakers 4-5 extra points in a given game on average)... but it simply isn't true, you can't just go by 2020 and 2016 numbers from this. In 2004, for instance, the Democrats cried election fraud and election rigging (i.e. with voter suppression in Cleveland) in Ohio, specifically. Bush won Ohio by exactly 2.1%. He did, however, win the popular vote by 2.4%, securing over 50% of the national popular vote. So, if the Democrats and Kerry had indeed won Ohio, they would have won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by over 2% and the GOP in bent candidate receiving over 50% nationally. Who's crying foul now?
The 2022 election results specifically leaning left in the swing states and right in the deep red and deep blue states, showed us specifically how there is absolutely a path for Biden or Harris to defeat Trump in the electoral college and lose to Trump in the popular vote. I don't think it's the most likely scenario, but it's more plausible than you think.
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