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Record-breaking Category 5 with 180 mph wins - and could grow stronger:
Direct hit on Tampa and Tampa Bay. 20-40 foot surge possible in Tampa.
Also, the remaining hostages from one year ago are all dead. Can we all agree on that?
Record-breaking Category 5 with 180 mph wins - and could grow stronger:
Direct hit on Tampa and Tampa Bay. 20-40 foot surge possible in Tampa.
Based DeSantis cut out that snake district #5 back in early 2022.
Next year a key ticket item should be to lobby SCOTUS to overturn VRA Section II making it illegal to draw these snake districts on the basis of race. I'm OK with a reprieve like, you need to keep communities of interest together as much as possible within an urban metropolis area (for example the Bronx, the south side of Chicago, the area south of central L.A., Baltimore, Prince George's County MD etc), but a state being forced to draw snakes like that one and the one in Alabama and the one in Louisiana that span many counties just for the sake of capturing as many negroes as possible just because your statewide black population is X %, is ing re ed.
The Tallahassee-Jacksonville seat was never required by the VRA (it was never majority black), it's required by state law. DeSantis has already stipulated that the current map he passed violates state law and his lawyers are arguing that the state law violated the equal protection clause, and the s DeSantis appointed to the Florida Supreme Court are intentionally slow walking the lawsuit until after the election because they don't have standing to make a finding on the equal protection clause and thus have no way to rule that a new map isn't required.Based DeSantis cut out that snake district #5 back in early 2022.
Next year a key ticket item should be to lobby SCOTUS to overturn VRA Section II making it illegal to draw these snake districts on the basis of race. I'm OK with a reprieve like, you need to keep communities of interest together as much as possible within an urban metropolis area (for example the Bronx, the south side of Chicago, the area south of central L.A., Baltimore, Prince George's County MD etc), but a state being forced to draw snakes like that one and the one in Alabama and the one in Louisiana that span many counties just for the sake of capturing as many negroes as possible just because your statewide black population is X %, is ing re ed.
Remarkable that in all the examples of "urban metropolis" areas you don't mention the ones like the NC Research Triangle, DFW, Salt Lake City, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Jacksonville and Des Moines that all get chopped up or diluted in some form under the current maps. That communities of interest rule would simply replace the Jacksonville-Tallahassee seat with a blue Jacksonville seat contained entirely within Duval County, not the current seat that chops Duval County in half.
If it takes more than 3-5 days to zelle him the money, will that be okay?
tater, will Hurrican Milton not take the roads?
I don’t see how 2025 isn’t a rough year for Florida’s economy. Condo prices in Miami are already crashing, and it’s going to get to a point (if it’s not already there) when people simply won’t be able to get homeowner insurance in the state.
commercial insurance carriers are already denying applications for coverage for properties in Florida en masse.
Funny story about district 5 on the first map - the in bent Democrat on that ridiculous looking Jacksonville / Orlando seat, Corrine Brown, intervened in the 2015 redistricting lawsuit to side with republicans because she didn’t want her seat becoming slightly less red.
There aren’t very many things black democrats like more than helping republicans gerrymander
This is what I totally did not understand and thought the insurance companies were pulling some sort of scam by not covering flood and wind damage.
Wtf do you read to find all this stuff out? Every State’s “hometown” newspaper?Funny story about district 5 on the first map - the in bent Democrat on that ridiculous looking Jacksonville / Orlando seat, Corrine Brown, intervened in the 2015 redistricting lawsuit to side with republicans because she didn’t want her seat becoming slightly less red.
There aren’t very many things black democrats like more than helping republicans gerrymander
Is there some sector of political reads that puts out specific stuff on every state examining every state?
The unwinding of insured risk will happen gradually, then suddenly. It isn't fully priced in yet.
Last edited by Winehole23; 10-08-2024 at 06:18 PM.
The next 100 years tbh
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...floods/678718/
Tracking further south now. Back to Cat 5 and the pressure is at 902
Don't really have a good explanation. Redistricting and tracking black democrat corruption are both hobbies of mine
This would actually be the "fairest" community-based way to draw North Florida.
Leon County (Tallahassee) and Alachua County (Gainesville) are both counties dominated by college towns with large universities that have a lot in common with each other while they have virtually nothing in common with the more rural, trailer trash counties around them. They can easily be put in the same district, and there's no reason to split Duval County the way DeSantis did. There should a seat drawn entirely within the city boundaries of Jacksonville.
We both went back and forth on this subject a ton in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter or so of 2022.This would actually be the "fairest" community-based way to draw North Florida.
Leon County (Tallahassee) and Alachua County (Gainesville) are both counties dominated by college towns with large universities that have a lot in common with each other while they have virtually nothing in common with the more rural, trailer trash counties around them. They can easily be put in the same district, and there's no reason to split Duval County the way DeSantis did. There should a seat drawn entirely within the city boundaries of Jacksonville.
You're hypocriticizing yourself because you're cracking a lot of red counties to make a medium-snake district just to connect two white-liberal college cities that aren't exactly next door. Alachua and Leon/Gadsden are too far apart to justify it.
I agree with the Jacksonville district and a couple other examples you provided, but there's literally no reason to draw a heap of Montgomery County into MD-06 when you can easily complete the western district with common-interest dark-red Carroll County and the northern boonies of Baltimore County (not Baltimore City).
If you're gonna start redistricting to make House seat % commensurate with the popular vote in each state then it digs both ways:
He's the smartest democrat on this message board, he's lived in DC for years, and he's friends with a decent amount of fairly wealthy non-practicing-Jewish (NPJ) Democratic Party insiders. I'd listen to him if I were you
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-08-2024 at 10:12 PM.
I hear lots of horror stories of covered insured home owners getting weasled on by the Inc Cos.
Some of the big name ones are the worst.
Farmers and State Farm suck ass, cons.
USAA has gotten kick ass reviews.
That district cracks two counties total. 719k of its population comes from counties that aren't cracked and only 50k of its population comes from counties that are cracked. That's a significant improvement over the Gainesville seat on the current map that gets over 206k of its population from a county that's cracked.
Republicans only care about county cracking when it suits them. Communities of interest should be a lot more important than county cracking.
Yes there's no question Maryland and Illinois are gerrymandered but the way you drew them makes no sense. You're right that MD-06 should be a solid red district that hugs the PA border into Baltimore County (not city), but you shouldn't be splitting the Delmarva peninsula into multiple seats in order to make the 5th district more red.
I'm not sure wtf you did with Illinois but it's not COI based at all, it's just a map that draws as many solid red seats as possible. It's one of the easiest states in the country to draw a fair map in:
Last edited by Will Hunting; 10-08-2024 at 10:55 PM.
Who's the smartest republican on this board then?
ducks... just kidding.
TSA, me, Dirks_Finale, rmt, no particular order... I might have missed someone.
Will Hunting to be fair I made the Maryland map today, but I made that Illinois map in early 2022 (hence the ugliness near Chicago and the lack of population consistency in each district, however to be fair Pritzker's map has a pretty unusually steep difference in population per district), so I've gotten better at it. I was basically just drawing a 10-7 map which is roughly in line with the partisan lean of the state. No question yours is cleaner, though, in blue wave years they could still theoretically get their current 14-3, though the most likely outcome is a 12-5 or even 11-6 since college age white turnout (Bloomington/UIUC) is notoriously ty.
I agree with not cracking Delmarva (the dems did have one early 2021 proposal that sneaked Annapolis in to Harris's district but it was thrown out in court) though it's pretty hard to decide which is fairer because Charles county is pretty black like PG and has less in common with the other three counties in your MD-05.
On a side note, Baltimore County - not city - is going to largely decide the split ticket margin between Trump and Hogan. They tend to be much more down ballot conservative.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-08-2024 at 11:14 PM.
The Pritzker map (and every other in every other state) has the same population in every district. It's illegal to have population deviations in congressional districts outside of deviations that are tiny (like less than 1%). Pritzker drawing a map that deviates in population would be re ed since that's literally the only way to get a map thrown out in federal court.
The map I drew looks more favorable for Dems than it is. The Northwest seat is trending right and pretty quickly and the light blue seats in the Chicagoland outskirts are more red down ballot.
If you apply the 2022 Congress results to it it's a 10-7 map (all 6 rural districts are red and the Joliet district is also red), but fair and proportional aren't the same. Chicagoland's population is where 11 out of the 17 seats come from and all of them are going to be blue.
Charles County is cracked on my map, the black parts of it are drawn into the Prince Georges County seat. It's literally drawn in a way to make the 5th district as red as possible without totally nuking communities of interest (by doing something like cracking the Delmarva peninsula), so idk how one could argue that it's not fair.
Dude the difference between Hogan and Trump isn't going to be just Baltimore County
He's going to lose handily though. It might have been interesting if Republicans cleared the field in MD and Hogan ran as an independent the way the Dems cleared the field in Nebraska for Osborn (who's not going to win but he's scared Fischer enough that the GOP establishment is spending money there now).
Well, that, or drawing non-contiguous districts. My apology on the Pritzker map, I recall from 3 years ago the one for Illinois they had on DRA differed by up to 0.5% (still under the 1% threshold, but higher deviation than most states) but I guess they fixed that, either it was a glitch or the IL legislature fixed it, one of the two. I agree the Driftless IL seat based around Moline is the part of IL that is zooming rightward, the light blue seats in the Chicagoland outskirts could go either way but Dems are slightly favored. The other pink seat should go red most years and the seat in the middle appears to be a pure toss up because of the college towns but the college student voters are low propensity especially in midterms.
As for Maryland. It's a pretty good map and at least the West Panhandle finally gets representation. It looks like you cracked Baltimore City though, which is odd because it has slightly less than a district in population and is a COI in of itself.
I agree Alsobrooks is going to win but I don't believe by a safe margin. He'll win Anne Arundel, make Howard close and cut into Montgomery whites but it won't be enough. Alsobrooks "looks" like Kamala so she'll win all of Kamala's black voters and MD is a very black heavy state.Dude the difference between Hogan and Trump isn't going to be just Baltimore County
He's going to lose handily though. It might have been interesting if Republicans cleared the field in MD and Hogan ran as an independent the way the Dems cleared the field in Nebraska for Osborn (who's not going to win but he's scared Fischer enough that the GOP establishment is spending money there now).
The GOP would be stupid to spend money on Fischer's race because it's going to be a Mike Lee 2022 redux. Plus, you've also got not only the POTUS but also Pete Ricketts on the ballot, I can't see Fischer underperforming Ricketts on the same ballot by much. Split ticketing post Trump era polarization in federal elections is massively overrated.
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