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Trump can edge Harris and Harris will concede.
Trump will never concede.
yeah well, I never said there wasn't more than three, I just picked three likely ones
Trump can edge Harris and Harris will concede.
Trump will never concede.
Scenario 4: Harris wins the popular vote but Trump wins the ostensible electoral college majority
-Harris won't concede as quickly as Hillary did, but eventually she will especially if Trump isn't given a jail sentence on November 26th or it's dismissed before then
Scenario 5: Harris wins the popular vote narrowly and wins a narrower than Biden, but still stable, electoral college majority
-Trump will not concede and claim fraud just as he did in 2020, and even though it'll have more teeth than in 2020 with a narrower Democrat win, people are tired of election denialism and ultimately he'll be told to concede in exchange for no jail time in his trial cases and he'll be forced to accept
Scenario 6: Harris wins the popular vote narrowly and wins a radioactive, 270-268 electoral college majority
-That scenario is possible if Harris carries the rust belt three but loses all the other swing states including Nevada. Trump will not concede, claim cheating will he and Musk and the rest will do their best to try to convince or even pay electors to go faithless. These are common, middle class proles that aren't rich and don't have political power. This may be enough to try to get SCOTUS to flip.
Scenario 7: Trump wins popular vote and loses the electoral college by more than 270-268
Trump will be kicking and screaming at this and it'll be hilarious, but there's not much you can do if you can't overturn multiple states in the SCOTUS
Scenario 8: Trump wins popular vote and loses the electoral college by exactly 270-268
Trump writhes and declares civil war if he doesn't get his way
Scenario 9: Harris wins popular vote and electoral college ends in a 269-269 tie
Less likely since you're likely seeing NE-02 surprise flip back red in that instance, but if Harris wins the popular vote in that scenario potentially you can convince some of the softer old guard GOP type congresspeople in the Plains states with a tiny population to vote Harris over Trump, especially if the GOP wins/holds both chambers of congress
Scenario 10: Trump wins popular vote and electoral college ends in a 269-269 tie
Again less likely, but Trump winning the popular vote would pretty much convince the critical GOP congress people that Trump deserves the vaunted second term.
Scenario 11: Harris wins by Obama 2008 type margins in the popular vote and electoral college, every news outlet calls election for Harris before midnight
-Trump concedes on election night, no mention of fraud or cheating
Scenario 12: Trump wins by Obama 2008 type margins in the popular vote and electoral college, every news outlet calls election for Trump before midnight
-Harris concedes on election night, no mention of "we have to wait until every vote is counted..."
lotta wishcasting, but some of those things could happen
Trump will never concede
Which are you calling wishcasting? I'm not wishcasting, I'm brainstorming, offering very possible scenarios
That norm is broken.
All Democratic Party wins are illegitmate a priori.
Trump will not concede under any cir stances.
This should disqualify him, but it is also a selling point.
Americans want an all-American dictator.
That's not true.
Other than Trump and Kari Lake, who has cried about their election being stolen?
Name names
MAMALA - MENTUM CONTINUES!
:
https://kalshi.com/events
MAMALA MENTUM TRACKER:
https://www.predic .org/markets Kamala back to a near 60% lead
Polymarket only down to 53% Trump now and falling
Will Hunting Dems are TANKING in the purple-state (rust belt) Senate polls.What an epic choke job if not just Sherrod but also Baldwin/Slotkin/Casey all lose, or at least 2 of 3 would probably guarantee a GOP Senate majority for a generation or so even if both Lake and Scarface both lose.
(not Jon Tester; he's getting Heitkamp'd)
This is genuinely one of the dumbest ways to predict who's going to win dude.MAMALA MENTUM TRACKER:
https://www.predic .org/markets Kamala back to a near 60% lead
Polymarket only down to 53% Trump now and falling
The betting markets swung because of a Kamala +3 Iowa poll that's clearly ed up. Even though the poll was conducted by the "holy grail" of Iowa pollsters it was clearly very flawed (it was a Biden-won sample in a state that Trump won by 8% in 2020 FFS). It's very unclear to me why Selzer is risking her reputation on such a shoddy poll, because she's losing her A+ pollster rating unless Trump wins Iowa by like 3% or less (which would mean Kamala landslide across the country).
The presidential election is as close to a toss-up as it gets. The polls don't consistently favor either candidate, and all the grifters who do "early vote analysis" are making up for clicks. Florida is the only state where the early vote stats indicate a clear issue for one candidate, but we already knew Florida was gonna sprint right this year. Beyond that the election day vote is too much of a mystery to draw conclusions.
Disagree, it wasn't a risk to her reputation when she went against all the other pollsters in 2016 and 2020.
While I think the presidential race is pretty much a coin flip, I do think the Democrats flip the house with a slim majority.
There are five Republicans (Bacon, Garcia, Duarte, Williams, D'Esposito) who IMO are pretty much cooked. Mike Johnson hasn't been the fundraiser that McCarthy was and the Dems have a spending advantage in basically all of the compe ive house races. Mike Johnson has also said some really dumb the last few weeks, like how he plans to repeal the ACA and the CHIPS Act with a majority.
IMO the seats that decide control will be the two compe ive Arizona seats and NY-19. Arizona is the biggest CHIPS Act state in the country so Johnson saying he wants to repeal it was really dumb.
It wasn't a risk to her reputation because the final results vindicated her polling.
I'd love to be wrong but I don't see any scenario where Kamala wins Iowa (or even comes within 4% for that matter).
4 points in Iowa means trump lost three points in Iowa which is bad news for him anyway. Harris minus 4 in this poll would have been good news for her campaign.
I agree, my point is that if the final result is Harris -4 that's still a 7% miss by Selzer.
Looking back at it, one of the early warning signs for Trump was his performance in the Iowa primary, which, coincidentally, Selzer nailed
Her poll
Trump: 48%
Haley: 20%
DeSantis: 16%
Vivek: 8%
Final results
Trump: 51%
Haley: 19%
DeSantis: 21%
Vivek: 8%
Trump just barely getting over 50% of the vote in an R primary as a former President who won by 8% there is pretty catastrophic but just kind of got swept under the rug.
disagree.... Schweikert, Molinaro, Nunn, and Garcia aren't losing. And I don't see both of Valadao and Duarte losing. AZ has been surprisingly red with the early vote so I now think Ciscomani holds as well. MI-08 and Davis in NC are 50/50 at bestWhile I think the presidential race is pretty much a coin flip, I do think the Democrats flip the house with a slim majority.
There are five Republicans (Bacon, Garcia, Duarte, Williams, D'Esposito) who IMO are pretty much cooked. Mike Johnson hasn't been the fundraiser that McCarthy was and the Dems have a spending advantage in basically all of the compe ive house races. Mike Johnson has also said some really dumb the last few weeks, like how he plans to repeal the ACA and the CHIPS Act with a majority.
IMO the seats that decide control will be the two compe ive Arizona seats and NY-19. Arizona is the biggest CHIPS Act state in the country so Johnson saying he wants to repeal it was really dumb.
In a Trump victory scenario there are not only those but also a handful of other potential pick up opportunities. I don't see a scenario where Trump wins at all but the GOP loses the House.
I agree the Iowa poll was an outlier and both Dems and GOP smart analysts agree Selzer is washed up.
As far as early vote states indicating a clear issue for one candidates, it's not just Florida but it's similar in Arizona.
However Wisconsin early vote is looking surprisingly bad for Trump.
Last edited by UNT Eagles 2016; 11-03-2024 at 03:27 PM.
I'm convinced in general the GOP is going to win very well down ballot but Trump is going to narrowly lose, which goes slightly against what the polls have been saying all year but goes in favor of the current polling trend, and also what happened in 2016/2020 to a large degree. That's going to be this year's "polling miss", the GOP Senate and House candidates are underrepresented while Trump is slightly overrepresented. While post-Obama polarization has largely killed most split ticketing, college-educated whites are by far the demographic that is most likely to split ticket at all and that group has become very Democratic (at least anti-Trump) since the mid 2010s while Trump voters and rural peeps don't really split ticket the other way, that's why I've been saying all along that almost all of the split ticketing will favor Harris and favor the GOP down ballot candidates.
you'll see a Trump overperformance in Montana of about 6% and Arizona of surprisingly a lot less than people thought before (maybe around 2% -- if Gallego is lucky) but not much else. I don't even see Sherrod Brown overperforming by all that much... Trump voters will come home to Moreno, even in Youngstown, remember both Moreno (2024) and McCormick (2022) were huge poll over-performers in the must-win places and statewide in their primaries.
the only thing Don Bacon has going for him is that it's a college educated white heavy district in NE-02, which means a lot of Trump-derangement syndrome and the best case scenario for split ticketing, but the top of the ticket is absolutely cooked so I would say Bacon is a slight underdog and I'd have him losing narrowly at this point. Though his opponent is a b3aner so he might still win, actually with redistricting most of the Latinos in the southern part of Omaha metro were drawn into NE-01.
She did her method she wrote it up and those were her results. It would have been a bigger risk to her reputation if she didn't post what she got.
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