30 games in, what are everyone's thoughts?

[CGD]

^ interesting metrics. Is LEBRON now the community consensus for the best overall evaluation tool? I know there have been several over the years.

[scott]

^ interesting metrics. Is LEBRON now the community consensus for the best overall evaluation tool? I know there have been several over the years.

DARKO DPM and EPM has been generally voted by GM's as the "most trusted" advanced metric, with LEBRON coming in behind that in 3rd. However, the last time I saw this survey conducted was in 2021. https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced...res-analytics/

I'll post up some DARKO charges in the post immediately following this post. I'm a big fan of EPM but historical data is paywalled and I'm not paying for that. CraftedNBA.com is great for a free knock-off version of EPM, with more of it available for free, but historical is still largely paywalled. I quote Crafted OPM/DPM/CPM stats a lot as well.

DARKO and LEBRON are great because you can get these nice historical charts for free. They all have flaws, and they are just stats and we can't rely totally on a spreadsheet, but they all generally align and if you dig into their construction they're all pretty logical and well founded.

[scott]

Here is the DARKO Daily-Plus-Minus career progressions for Jeremy, Keldon and Devin. Moreso than looking at these and asking "are these numbers good", I like to focus on the trajectories. This tells us what my eyes generally tell me and what other stats suggest: Keldon and Devin pretty much are who they are at this point, while Jeremy is really taking a leap.



Here is a chart of some well-established stars. You can see guys who are still young (Luka and Shai) are still on the ascent, whereas guys like Giannis and KD (who are still great) have plateaued or are on a downswing. That doesn't mean they aren't great (and Giannis is having one of his best seasons ever), it just says that they are largely fully developed. It's kind of amazing that Luka, Shai and Jokic are still on an upswing.



The DARKO explorer is great, I encourage folks to play around with it. You can find it here: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/

Also play around with the "Player Profile" tab. Lots of great stuff there.

[Dejounte]

Here is the DARKO Daily-Plus-Minus career progressions for Jeremy, Keldon and Devin. Moreso than looking at these and asking "are these numbers good", I like to focus on the trajectories. This tells us what my eyes generally tell me and what other stats suggest: Keldon and Devin pretty much are who they are at this point, while Jeremy is really taking a leap.



Here is a chart of some well-established stars. You can see guys who are still young (Luka and Shai) are still on the ascent, whereas guys like Giannis and KD (who are still great) have plateaued or are on a downswing. That doesn't mean they aren't great (and Giannis is having one of his best seasons ever), it just says that they are largely fully developed. It's kind of amazing that Luka, Shai and Jokic are still on an upswing.



The DARKO explorer is great, I encourage folks to play around with it. You can find it here: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/

Also play around with the "Player Profile" tab. Lots of great stuff there.

can you combine both graphs or make the second graph squeezed in for the x axis to match the first?

[Dejounte]

Adjust the second graph to 450 games, I mean. I would do it but I’m on my phone

[benefactor]

I used to think Vassell was one of the players that was necessary to keep along with Wemby and Castle, but that looks like it's going to Sochan now. I admittedly had lost faith in him but he looks like he's really starting to settle into the role he was always supposed to be in.

Unless you are one of the usual suspects that gets emotionally connected to every Spurs player that walks to the door, you understand and see that the back half of this roster is dog . You can over analyze it until your head starts to spin trying to make the case for some of these useless players but they are exactly what they are...useless.

This team is tracking about where it's supposed to but it's also tracking at the point where a move needs to be made to upgrade the talent. As Scott has said, standing pat keeps you right where you are and that's not where they need to stay...and there's absolutely no reason to go backwards and tank. You get you a couple of new prospects from the draft and move the rest of this bag of s out of here. There is nothing to overanalyze. It's pretty cut and dry.

[benefactor]

I will say the Spurs probably need to try to keep Shampenny. He is the kind of role player good teams need

[The Truth #6]

Yeah, we can't tank anymore. Which was my argument at the draft, we need to take BPA because #8 picks will become scarce as Wemby continues to dominate. There were positives to come out of that choice so it's complicated, I suppose.

[xellos88330]

It is just like it has been. Every team seems to catch fire from beyond the arc against the spurs. It makes me sad. Sure the future is bright... but tomorrow is also part of the future and I ain't happy. #greedyAF

[Dejounte]

I will say the Spurs probably need to try to keep Shampenny. He is the kind of role player good teams need

I see on other team’s forums wanting Champagnie in any trade scenario with the Spurs. He’s undervalued by Spurs fans right now, tbh. If our “progress” this season is both Champagnie and Sochan developing into keepers, it’s a big leap. I personally like the core of Sochan, Champagnie, Victor, Castle. Anything we add on top is gravy.

[benefactor]

I see on other team’s forums wanting Champagnie in any trade scenario with the Spurs. He’s undervalued by Spurs fans right now, tbh. If our “progress” this season is both Champagnie and Sochan developing into keepers, it’s a big leap. I personally like the core of Sochan, Champagnie, Victor, Castle. Anything we add on top is gravy.

I agree. Those three players outside of Victor are three players that work well on a good team if they are utilized correctly. The rest of the roster plus the available draft picks should be used to try to get at least one more decent piece to continue the building process. The stuff we have may not be able to be used to hit a huge home run but at the very least it can move the players on base into scoring position.

[scott]

Adjust the second graph to 450 games, I mean. I would do it but I’m on my phone

How's this one. I took out Joker, Giannis and KD, threw in Fox just for fun, no particular reason

[scott]

I see on other team’s forums wanting Champagnie in any trade scenario with the Spurs. He’s undervalued by Spurs fans right now, tbh. If our “progress” this season is both Champagnie and Sochan developing into keepers, it’s a big leap. I personally like the core of Sochan, Champagnie, Victor, Castle. Anything we add on top is gravy.

I agree. Those three players outside of Victor are three players that work well on a good team if they are utilized correctly. The rest of the roster plus the available draft picks should be used to try to get at least one more decent piece to continue the building process. The stuff we have may not be able to be used to hit a huge home run but at the very least it can move the players on base into scoring position.

Cheers to this. Champ is a major testament to the Spurs Pro Scouting department. Honestly, for free pickups, I'd put Bass and Mamu in that camp as well. These were all picked up as free roll flyers, and we've gotten one very useful role player out of it and two guys who contribute above expectations.

[Dejounte]

How's this one. I took out Joker, Giannis and KD, threw in Fox just for fun, no particular reason

Thanks scott

looks like Keldon can still do a DeAaron Fox type comeback

can you put Sochan back in (remove Vassell and keldon if its too much clutter)

[MannyIsGod]

A lot of us felt Wemby was good enough to deserve better talent around him LAST SEASON, and he’s only even better and ahead of expectations now. He’s on the equivalent of an MLE contract. We have 2.5 years left of the gift of his rookie deal. I hope we take advantage of that.

I get this but some of you seem ready to make THE trade right now and this team doesn't have the top down talent to start completely blowing your wad. The Spurs should definitely make trades that add to their talent pool and I'm definitely on board with a fox move at the right price (just like I was with trae) but it's not just about Wemby being ready. It's gotta be Wemby and a rotation because trading everything for a number two and leaving the cupboard bare is a disaster.

[MannyIsGod]

Dude, keep your pants zipped.

LMFAO. Are you one of the clowns who want to burn Sochan and a First for a 28 year old playing for a losing team? Who won't be good in three years?

Good Christ, get a ing grip. The franchise has made it ABUNDANTLY CLEAR they are planning for the next decade, not to please you toddler-attention-span mother ers. Blowing the wad on the equivalent of Mo Williams right now is GONNA US RIGHT THE UP.

Settle down.

This is not the first time you accuse people of wanting to trade sochan who have never wanted to trade him. You going to keep pulling this bull until it works?

[MannyIsGod]

The thing is, about Devin and Keldon, is that folks are waiting on some miraculous leap from them when the reality is that this is most likely just who they are. Take a look at this plot of their multi-year LEBRON ratings relative to the rest of the league (top is )-LEBRON, middle is D-LEBRON, bottom is overall, the y-axis les get cut off unfortunately). Both of them have been the same dude for years now. This is just who they are. (Also, who was ready for the hard-to-swallow pills that Keldon is a better defender than Devin this year?)

So theyre both above average?

[MannyIsGod]

I don't understand why we are comparing keldon and Devin to stars? They're not paid like all stars and that ship has sailed. Comparing their advanced metrics to mvp candidates isn't apples to apples.

[LeBowen]

I get this but some of you seem ready to make THE trade right now and this team doesn't have the top down talent to start completely blowing your wad. The Spurs should definitely make trades that add to their talent pool and I'm definitely on board with a fox move at the right price (just like I was with trae) but it's not just about Wemby being ready. It's gotta be Wemby and a rotation because trading everything for a number two and leaving the cupboard bare is a disaster.

We have 12 FRPs, 5 swaps and 18 SRPs from '25 to 20131.
Unless we're trading for Giannis, the cupboard won't be left bare.

What do Markkanen and Fox have in common? Both up for extension when the rumors started and both at a discount price.
If Markkanen rejected the extension, that is.
Fox will be on an expiring deal and Kings can't ask for more than Devin+3 FRPs, even thst's generous.

Check that Fox topic and you'll see how few realistic targets are out there.

[scott]

Thanks scott

looks like Keldon can still do a DeAaron Fox type comeback

can you put Sochan back in (remove Vassell and keldon if its too much clutter)

You can only do 5 players at a time. You can play around with it later, I'm not gonna build these and take the time to upload them today

[scott]

I get this but some of you seem ready to make THE trade right now and this team doesn't have the top down talent to start completely blowing your wad.

This is a strawman that is constantly used against making moves. The Spurs proverbial "wad" is so large, that it's impossible to blow it in one move, and there isn't really a contingent of folks worth mentioning who want to do that.

The Spurs should definitely make trades that add to their talent pool and I'm definitely on board with a fox move at the right price (just like I was with trae) but it's not just about Wemby being ready. It's gotta be Wemby and a rotation because trading everything for a number two and leaving the cupboard bare is a disaster.

Of course it's about price. Everything is about price. No one has suggested blowing the entire warchest on any player (and let's be clear, that warchest is 12 FRPs and 17 SRPs). Likewise, it's not realistic to get good players for our trash (like some posters love to suggest). There are perfectly reasonable trade scenarios that don't "blow our wad" and are still realistic to SAC (or any other team).

[scott]

So theyre both above average?

I had a typo in the original post, it should have read that the top is "O-LEBRON". So they are both above median (not average... can't believe you of all people got caught in a rookie statistical mistake!) offensive players, both well below median defensive players, and Keldon is surprisingly a median player while Devin is below.

[scott]

I don't understand why we are comparing keldon and Devin to stars? They're not paid like all stars and that ship has sailed. Comparing their advanced metrics to mvp candidates isn't apples to apples.

If you read the posts, you'll see that is not what those charts are doing. I provided the charts of the stars to demonstrate a completely different point.

[baseline bum]

I get this but some of you seem ready to make THE trade right now and this team doesn't have the top down talent to start completely blowing your wad. The Spurs should definitely make trades that add to their talent pool and I'm definitely on board with a fox move at the right price (just like I was with trae) but it's not just about Wemby being ready. It's gotta be Wemby and a rotation because trading everything for a number two and leaving the cupboard bare is a disaster.

For me it's not so much about whether Wemby is ready to make the team a contender now as it is converting Vassell into someone more useful while he still has some trade value. I'm completely out on him after he was already a terrible defender last year and is now looking Keldon level this year. The team is starting to look like last year's team defensively as Vassell has returned and gotten more and more playing time. Dude is like the anti Danny Green.

[sfernald]

Someone posted a graphic the records of the last 5-6 years for OKC, ORL, and us. Both OKC and ORL had double 20ish win seasons, followed by a 40ish play in season, followed by the playoffs. OKC is a year ahead of ORL, and we are a year behind them. Even though ORL is a year ahead of us, we are probably in a better long term situation since they lack the pick cache that we and OKC have each amassed.

Stop being so ing impatient. You’re like that bratty little girl in the original Willy Wonka. I want it NOOOOOOOOW, daddy.

We’re on the right track, using the same blueprint as two other teams that are now quite successful.

OMG that’s my fav movie. I am totally that bratty girl from CaTCF! I want my ticket NOW POP!!!! DO SOMETHING!!

lol, but I totally agree with you with where we are, maybe two years behind Okc but moving up quickly. I predicted 45 wins this summer and most everyone laughed at me. But I still believe. Maybe even one smaller size deadline trade might get us there. I’m a believer!!