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For Fox? No but I'll give you 100 bucks if the price is that low. That's pretty absurd imo.
Is this blowing the wad for you?
Devin
25 Hawks pick
26 Swap
+SRP and/or Filler player
For Fox? No but I'll give you 100 bucks if the price is that low. That's pretty absurd imo.
The warchest is big but when we make those pics matter a lot too. The next 3 drafts are especially valuable because the Spurs need more talent NOW. I don't think we disagree much if at all anyway.
Devin is pretty likely to have a better second half of the season. I would not be shocked if this is his low point for the season on those metrics. Also no one says above median in regular conversation. You goty point.
Here are some more relevant-to-the-Spurs charts, especially in comparison to the selling points of past heroes, DJM (sold after 320 games on the DARKO charts, year 6 on the LEBRON chart) and Derrick (sold at 237 games on the DARKO charts, in the middle of Year 5 on the LEBRON charts)
What I see here:
Still time for Devin to take a Dejounte-like upward swing on the offensive end, but he's just a bad defensive player so unless he does jump to an 80+ percentile offensive player, he's going to be a below median overall player.
Jeremy's offensive, and thus overall, leap this season is awesome.
Devin and Keldon just ain't DJM or Derrick, and we probably should not expect equivalent returns for them if we look to move off of them. NBA GM's have access to all this information as readily as we do
Glad someone else has found the DARKO explorer, it's a very helpful tool and started setting off alarm bells on Vassell as early as last season. I use it to look at players of a similar archetype - so for Vassell, it'd be Booker, Lavine, Middleton, and DeRozan. The real eye-opening name to compare him to is popular punching bag and noted "bust" Jalen Green, whose 3/106 extension was widely panned. Hopefully he is able to turn it around and either show that he's a valuable piece moving forward, whether to keep or to trade.Here is the DARKO Daily-Plus-Minus career progressions for Jeremy, Keldon and Devin. Moreso than looking at these and asking "are these numbers good", I like to focus on the trajectories. This tells us what my eyes generally tell me and what other stats suggest: Keldon and Devin pretty much are who they are at this point, while Jeremy is really taking a leap.
Here is a chart of some well-established stars. You can see guys who are still young (Luka and Shai) are still on the ascent, whereas guys like Giannis and KD (who are still great) have plateaued or are on a downswing. That doesn't mean they aren't great (and Giannis is having one of his best seasons ever), it just says that they are largely fully developed. It's kind of amazing that Luka, Shai and Jokic are still on an upswing.
The DARKO explorer is great, I encourage folks to play around with it. You can find it here: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/
Also play around with the "Player Profile" tab. Lots of great stuff there.
I think there is a good argument to be made that mid to late FRPs are what fits the least with Wemby's timeline. We are in agreement that we need more talent now, but adding raw late FRPs who will need 2-3 years of development doesn't really add that.
I'm sure the FO has a plan, because its about to be or get off the pot time. If CHI conveys this year, that is two picks out of our warchest that hit their expiration date. We'll either have to make the picks, trade them for useful players, or convert them into 20131's (which I'm not so much interested in at this point). IMO, the best strategy is to plan on keeping one FRP in every draft and start making utility of the excess by trading away for proven en ies. That can be for a star, or it can be just to upgrade the overall level of the team.
BOS got Derrick White for their spares, a single late FRP, and a swap that the Celtics probably don't value much. That's what I'm hoping we do with some of our excess picks. The Pro Scouting department has done well with finds like Champ, Bass, Mamu. Go a find some White-like finds. Aaron Nesmith is a guy I've got my eyes on in the mold of that low-acquisition cost, known baseline, potential upside guy.
Great list of comparable names, all ones that I think everyone would hope Devin would grow comparable to in that #2 role. After year 2 of Devin's career, it looked like he was on that Middleton/Booker track, and it sure has fallen off from there.
I know a lot of folks want to believe this is just a tough start coming off an injury, or rust, or whatever, but this is part of a multi-year trend, not some recent development. Can he turn it around? Sure, anything is possible, but if you were running a simulation based purely on the data and past experience with other players, you wouldn't want to put money on it.
The defense is what has me completely out on Devin. Both the data and my eyes tell me he's a lost cause on that end.
I had the Spurs at 41-41 this season. They’re pretty much what I expected. Although Castle is doing a little better than I thought he would.
Yes. Iirc that works in the machine. Obviously in real life it's different. How about adding the Spurs pick for 27? The point is we have too big of a war chest for Fox to leave the cupboard bare as others have stated.
I mean of course it works in the trade machine as the picks don't matter just the matched salary but that price is just absurdly low. Even with another Spurs pick in there that's still a good trade. Its only 2 FRP.
Alright I think you convinced me. I have been higher on Devin but it's damn hard to argue with the data. Thats pretty damming.Here are some more relevant-to-the-Spurs charts, especially in comparison to the selling points of past heroes, DJM (sold after 320 games on the DARKO charts, year 6 on the LEBRON chart) and Derrick (sold at 237 games on the DARKO charts, in the middle of Year 5 on the LEBRON charts)
What I see here:
Still time for Devin to take a Dejounte-like upward swing on the offensive end, but he's just a bad defensive player so unless he does jump to an 80+ percentile offensive player, he's going to be a below median overall player.
Jeremy's offensive, and thus overall, leap this season is awesome.
Devin and Keldon just ain't DJM or Derrick, and we probably should not expect equivalent returns for them if we look to move off of them. NBA GM's have access to all this information as readily as we do
What's the package you think then for Fox? And what would be your max offer?
You are a MannyIsGod of Science, after all.
If that's the core going forward (and that is a fantastic defensive core), I would make everything else available in order to move up after the lottery in order to get Egor Demin (who would look perfect added to that group). If Vassell and Paul are gone by then, Castle and Demin start next to each other for a potential 3 ROY in a row starting lineup.
Then use whatever resources we have left to add a psuedo-all-star (someone who can take over an offense when needed) like Fox or Lauri or someone we haven't even discussed yet.
I think the top row is offense only, middle is defense only, bottom is overall. That would mean they're both above average on offense but below average on defense.
Keldon has been about a league-average player with one outlier (2024), while Vassell has been around 40th percentile with one outlier (2022). That would make Vassell's situation more worrying because he's performing worse than Keldon with a bigger contract and bigger expectations.
Yeah, I never thought of Keldon as a starter I always though of him kind of like the Energizer spark off the bench kind of roll. As far as Devin I thought he could be a legit starter on a very good team but ever since Wemby was drafted I just don’t see it as maybe because he doesn’t mesh well with him or maybe his game is suffering from injuries?
If he is not the player we thought and his trajectory continues this is going to have a Huge impact on our timeline of trying to compete for a le. I was afraid this was going to happen which is why I was hoping that we would at least have one lottery pick in the next draft.
I‘d say play out the season. See what you can get for Zollins, Tre Jones, Branham at the deadline. Make a run at Fox and some other moves in the offseason and hope ATL pick lands in the top 10.
Fixed that for you.
As for Tre, we can probably get a couple of SRPs which are useless considering how many we have already or a similar player in a different role, which would actually be a good deal.
If they don't plan to extend Tre, they should trade him for a bench wing/big. Who knows, maybe we get ourselves another Champagnie.
I posted this elsewhere, but Tre for Jonas works straight up. Saves WAS two additional years of salary. Jonas is probably a positive asset that can return them a late FRP from a contender though, tbh.
Agree he's been disappointing on D, the defense looks flat bad so far. But he missed camp/preseason, then the first 9 games, then missed another 5 in a row, and only started the last 4. After foot surgery and with minutes restriction he may have just recently gotten into game shape.
But he's having his most efficient season offensively, even with a poor couple of most recent games.
I'm hopeful he'll see improvement on D playing majority of minutes next to Wemby and Sochan (plus Castle and Paul screaming at him to stop F-ing up) to take pressure off vs playing along with Keldon, Zollins, Tre, Braham, etc for a good chunk of his minutes off bench.
I'm gonna give Vassell 10-15 starts before many real evaluation on whether he's disappointing, holding, or improving overall. Right now my eye test says he took a step-up on O and a step-back on D, but next to several bad bench defenders and maybe out-of-shape and unsure of foot.
Also, Bassey playing like a beast in limited minutes and taking all of Zollins minutes is big addition-by-subtraction if nothing else.
Zollins with 6 straight Inactive/DNPs and only 12 minutes total in the two games before that is maybe the best news of the season.
After watching Mikal's performance against us on XMas day, thought that Devin v Bridges would be a good comparison. Reminder on the LEBRON charts, Top of O-LEBRON, Middle is D-LEBRON, bottom is overall. I posted the DARKO charts in the same order.
Of course, we know what acquiring a player like Mikal costs, and he's not really a #2 option himself, IMO.
Wemby, Mamu, Barnes, Castle, Paul should be the starting lineup.
Bassey, Sochan, Vassell, Champ, and Jones should be the 2nd unit.
Keldon and Wesley should be 11 and 12.
Agree with most, but hard disagree on Vassell or that Keldon is good, hahaha.
Vassell has huge injury flags (right now, maybe forever) and looks like a liability on D, so that's enough reason to maximize his value and trade him away (I'm in the Vassell + couple quality picks +as any 2nds as needed + trash to match for Fox+ camp). But I think a healthy Vassell still has plenty of ceiling to be a good to very good #3 on a contending team. Keldon is a 6'4.75" forward with a 6'9.25" wingspan and a pure inefficient, inconsistent chucker. Vassell is a 6'5" guard with a 6'10" wingspan who scores efficiency and consistently.
Keldon's O peaked as a 22 y/o and has significantly dropped since, Vassell's O efficiency has increased every single year.
Maybe he stops improving, but continued SLIGHT improvement gets him to a .480/.400/.830+ split (currently .468/.388/.830 for reference) on mid-high 3 volume. That's an efficient 22ppg guy on 16.5 shots a game, with 7 three's per and figuring prior 3 yr FTA rate. Reduce the shots, fine, efficiency stays the same, 15 shots gets you about 20 points. That's a really solid #3 on O. There's a not unrealistic chance he goes past that and gets to a .500/.400+/.850+ peak, a 25/5/5 guy on his contract and looks like one of the best values in the league.
He doesn't turn 25 until August, (big) if he stays healthy, I seriously doubt that he's peaked and unless your getting not-past-the-prime All-star value in return, roll the dice and see if he hits. If you can get an All-star return, I'm happy to go that route too. But he's not in the same camp as Keldon.
And remember, he'll be making less than MLE $$$ in a few years, his contract won't be a albatross unless injuries crush his career.
In terms of wins the spurs are trending better than I expected (I thought it’d be a 35 win season). However, the spurs are also worse defensively than I thought they’d be. With players like wemby (DPoY level), sochan (all d potential), castle (surprisingly bad metrics wise so far), Barnes, cp3 (smart vets) and champaigne (solid above average) the spurs should be at least in the top 10 defensively but yet they are hovering middle of the pack.
The offence is going a bit better than I thought they’d stand but the sets have lots of improvement opportunities.
I still believe the coaching has major opportunities to improve and the sets require some major updates.
The outlines of a good team are there but there are some directional things I’m worried about.
Outside of wemby, castle, champaigne and sochan are keepers, in that order. I like Blake and thinks he can be kept around to be a POV defender for smaller quick guards. Vassell has until the end of the year to turn things around. Everybody else could be traded or cut.
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