De'Aaron Fox Rumors Suggest a Possible Trade to The Spurs

It's also really easy to type out that the draft has guys who all might end up better than Fox (a top 25-30 player in the league), but in reality there is probably only 1, 2 or maybe 3 if things really pan out. Better hope you get the right one.

Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

If Fox really wants to be here then he can just say he won't sign with anyone else and our leverage goes way up. If that's not happen now, then I doubt its ever going to. Maybe no one offers enough and SAC doesn't move him but I don't think he's going to say SAT and nothing else.

I agree. That may be what Rich Paul is saying now, but when it comes down to it there is $77MM of guaranteed money on the line by bluffing and saying you won't extend anywhere else if SAC calls the bluff and lets him make it to UFA. Fox and Klutch aren't morons.

Originally Posted by scott

Honestly this is part of the problem with the Spurs being in no-mans land. It makes decisions like these so much harder/far less obvious. If we were at .500 and in the 9th seed, then it's easier to pull that trigger. If we were a bottom dweller with top lottery odds, it would be easy to say no. Instead we're in that middle space with a superstar too good to let us be worse, but a roster too bad to let us be better. Trading for Fox makes us better, but so does having a Top 4 pick, and if we ended up with somewhere around a 40% chance to get one via the Hawks and Spurs pick... that's tough to forgo.

I'd personally try to make the move for Fox that somehow allows us to keep the better of ATL/SA at a minimum, but I'm not sure that pathway exists before the deadline. But I may also be overestimated the Kangz FO.

Yes

It's looking like the Spurs will have at least two top ten lottery picks and possibly three lottery picks. I haven't added all the odds but it has to be somewhere around 30% or higher for a top four pick. Those are not too bad of odds and worth gambling with and if they don't get into the top four they may even be able to trade into the top four with a couple of those picks and if not they can target Fox next summer if he's still available which he could be in a trade. Spurs have options to turn this roster around and they don't need to over pay for Fox now. they aren't going anywhere this year anyways. The team isn't deep enough yet.

Originally Posted by scott

It's also really easy to type out that the draft has guys who all might end up better than Fox (a top 25-30 player in the league), but in reality there is probably only 1, 2 or maybe 3 if things really pan out. Better hope you get the right one.

That's up to the Spurs fo to figure out. That's what they get paid for. They would have to be pretty bad to miss on this draft with a top four pick.

Originally Posted by scott

It's also really easy to type out that the draft has guys who all might end up better than Fox (a top 25-30 player in the league), but in reality there is probably only 1, 2 or maybe 3 if things really pan out. Better hope you get the right one.

I'm with you on this.

The Spurs have to stop counting on a lot of "could be" good players, and take a shot at a known commodity.

I'm not sure Fox is necessarily that guy...but we haven't exactly hit a lot of gold in the first round in recent years.

Vassell...questionable.

Sochan...questionable.

Branham and Wesley and Primo and Samanic...garbage.

At a certain point, youth culture has to become a fully grown team

Originally Posted by rascal

Yes

It's looking like the Spurs will have at least two top ten lottery picks and possibly three lottery picks. I haven't added all the odds but it has to be somewhere around 30% or higher for a top four pick. Those are not too bad of odds and worth gambling with and if they don't get into the top four they may even be able to trade into the top four with a couple of those picks and if not they can target Fox next summer if he's still available which he could be in a trade. Spurs have options to turn this roster around and they don't need to over pay for Fox now. they aren't going anywhere this year anyways. The team isn't deep enough yet.

Nope, right now its 25% but can't get much higher because we won't get Chicago's pick if it ends up top 4 so you cant count those odds.

Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Nope, right now its 25% but can't get much higher because we won't get Chicago's pick if it ends up top 4 so you cant count those odds.

You are right. Chicago will stay outside the top ten. Spurs and Atlanta have to fall a little more to get up to 30% odds.

Originally Posted by Dex

I'm with you on this.

The Spurs have to stop counting on a lot of "could be" good players, and take a shot at a known commodity.

I'm not sure Fox is necessarily that guy...but we haven't exactly hit a lot of gold in the first round in recent years.

Vassell...questionable.

Sochan...questionable.

Branham and Wesley and Primo and Samanic...garbage.

At a certain point, youth culture has to become a fully grown team

100%.

I'm not even sure of what the "let it play out" gang has as a strategy. Are they hoping that Vassell takes a 6th year leap? That Keldon finally discovers "it" at age 26? That we're going to get our next superstar at pick #12? I guess it's all possible, just highly unlikely.

And like we've already seen with the aforementioned Vassell and Johnson, the culture of losing takes a toll and engrains loser habits in them. It's not like there is a magical signal that is going to signal to these guys that it's time to turn it on.

It's a ship without a rudder right now.

Dunc’d On podcast have a mock Fox trade deadline podcast out where they mock out various teams options/interest for Fox.

End result was Fox to Spurs for CP3, Tre and Keldon pls 3 FRPs, the worst of 25 Spurs/Hawks, Chicago pick and the better of Spurs/Celtics 28, plus Chicagos 2nd rounder this year.

Opinion was split between the 4 hosts (Kevin Pelton as Sacramento) on that being enough or too much.

Good listen. One new thing was Nate Duncan saying the timing from Klutch now being about Spurs having the cap space in the off season to renegotiate and extend Fox to more $$$ than a standard max.

Nice trade terms but not sure about Fox at more than the 30% max.

Originally Posted by 100%duncan

Why is it better to wait for the offseason? Just for less assets to give up? Honest question not sure if Im missing something.

To see if either lottery pick hits top 4.

I’m ok with trading for Fox if the Spurs can retain 1 of the 25 FRPs (ATL or SA), beyond that I’d rather see what happens at the lottery and proceed from there.

Originally Posted by scott

The main benefit, in my opinion, would just be to see where our picks land. If you get lucky and end up with a top 4 pick, that may change your approach completely. What if we landed #1 and #3? Maybe you could just trade #3 + Keldon and Collins to match salaries without giving up anything actually useful. It might be too far gone to make the playoffs this year anyway.

It's hard to say if we'd have more or less leverage in the offseason. If Fox sticks by his "only San Antonio" guns it could help us. If he loosens that up, it could hurt us and make him more expensive.

So I take it you have come around on Flagg over Harper?

With Atlanta in such a talespin I'm telling the Kings they can't have the ATL 25 if they insist on Castle being in the deal. Gotta take the Spurs 25 instead.

If Spurs or Atlanta can get into the 9th spot the odds jump up to 20.3% for a top 4 pick.

At the 10th spot they have a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick so there is a good % jump from 10 to 9.

If the Spurs end up 9th and Atlanta 10th odds for a top 4 pick are 34.2% so they would get into the top 4, one out of three drafts, that's not too bad.

I expect Phil will have a good chance to pass both the Spurs and Atlanta to give the Spurs that 34.2% chance at a top 4 pick.

Originally Posted by baseline bum

With Atlanta in such a talespin I'm telling the Kings they can't have the ATL 25 if they insist on Castle being in the deal. Gotta take the Spurs 25 instead.

I'm keeping Castle and rolling the dice on the 34% on getting a top 4 pick. I believe in the top 4 this year.

Would you do the following as the base of a trade? I know Sac would demand a 25 pick but would anyone else actually beat this prior to the deadline?

Vassell + CHI 25 FRP, SAS 26 FRP, ATL 27 FRP, SAC 31 FRP for Fox

Others players and SRPs could be added in but the above is the core.

Originally Posted by SpursGenius

remember Baily, Edgecomb and UT Tre. Include those 3 in percentages all maybe better than Fox by himself. Percentage climbs to what 50

Problem is the Spurs can only be top 4 or 9-14 if say they fall to the ninth worst record. So there's no let's pick up Tre Johnson at 6 or 7 if we miss out on Flagg/Harper/Jak/Bailey in the top 4.

With the Spurs and Atlanta floundering those draft picks are becoming more valuable.

They are like stocks and the stock values are increasing.

Originally Posted by Kurik

Would you do the following as the base of a trade? I know Sac would demand a 25 pick but would anyone else actually beat this prior to the deadline?

Vassell + CHI 25 FRP, SAS 26 FRP, ATL 27 FRP, SAC 31 FRP for Fox

Others players and SRPs could be added in but the above is the core.

In a second, especially since the SAC 31 is a swap. That would be highway robbery.

I ended up listening to dunc on, where they did a mock trade negotiation with Fox. Spurs ended up with the deal, being Tre Jones, CP, Keldon, worse of spurs/Hawks pick for 25. Bulls 1st, best spurs/Celtics 29 picks, bulls 25 second for Heurter and Fox.

Originally Posted by rascal

I'm keeping Castle and rolling the dice on the 34% on getting a top 4 pick. I believe in the top 4 this year.

Gonna suck in the 66% chance those picks end up McNeeley and Saraf or something. Guess we gotta see if Wright can really put the screws to Sacramento. Ideally I'd like them to take Sochan or Main Character 24 so keep both Castle and the ATL pick.

Originally Posted by baseline bum

Problem is the Spurs can only be top 4 or 9-14 if say they fall to the ninth worst record. So there's no let's pick up Tre Johnson at 6 or 7 if we miss out on Flagg/Harper/Jak/Bailey in the top 4.

But a possibility can be Chicago can land at 11 and the Spurs can trade 11 and 9 to jump to 6 or 7 and draft Tre Johnson.

There are many roads the Spurs can take depending how the draft positions shake out and I'm liking all the possible outcomes.

Originally Posted by baseline bum

Gonna suck in the 66% chance those picks end up McNeeley and Saraf or something. Guess we gotta see if Wright can really put the screws to Sacramento. Ideally I'd like them to take Sochan or Main Character 24 so keep both Castle and the ATL pick.

Sometimes you have to roll the dice. It worked to land Wemby with longer odds. Still the Spurs may have three top 12 draft picks so a possibility to combine a couple to jump up.

Fox confirmed to a SacBee reporter tonight the Spurs is where he wants to sign. Rich Paul is clearing a path for Brian Wright. If Wright can’t take advantage of this at some point whether now or offseason - then he probably shouldn’t have the job.

Originally Posted by baseline bum

So I take it you have come around on Flagg over Harper?

Yeah, Cooper has definitely pulled away in that race