Pick #14 - Strategies

[Guru of Nothing]

I've taken a liking to Sorber at 14 and can't shake it. I'd really like to get Kornet in Spurs uniform too, but I don't think they can do both, and I have concerns over what Kornet might cost. If Hartenstein is worth 3yr/$87M...

[Manu&Duncan fan]

It’s not a personality “issue” per say… but I don’t think it’s the right type of personality for the current core right now. He’s stoic, and maybe too introverted, which might have been ok if we didn’t have a star or potential star on the team. Stoicism normally leads to hard work, which is great if you want to tap into their full potential. But we’re not really looking for that type… we’re looking for a supporting cast… a team guy who can be vocal when it matters, and be supportive to the leaders of the team.

I see what you mean. Yes he appears to be kawhi-like (or Duncan-like) stoic. But seems to me he is really down-to-earth, easy-going, not afraid of the spotlight even though preferring to staying away from the spotlight. More like Duncan than Kawhi. He will be a good teammate.

But he speaks broken and boring sentences, like Kawhi. But that makes me like him more. Because that type of personality tends to focus purely on one specialty and do well, which happens to be basketball.

[RC_Drunkford]

The Fleming thing is getting out of control again. waiting till the suggestion to draft him at #2, because he is the Giannis clone.

as some mentioned, at some point you think about drafting him. that point wasn‘t #8 and it‘s not #14, it might be in the mid 20s, if you have a pick there.

older, low compe ion, failed big time whenever it counted, average athlete. (that‘s one of the problems, when you only play low quality compe ion, even an average athlete looks like a superior athlete, when his opponents are all 3rd class athletes). but yes, he seems to be a humble and good character young man and likely will be a hard worker. But so are some others in this class.

I never said he was Giannis, I was comparing measurements and body type

you might want to check what is what. You are talking about the shuttle run and believe me, noone ever used that number as the one evidence for the overall athletic abilities of a player. Fleming tested pretty average overall and his vertical was very disappointing.

Fleming: Max Vertical Leap 32.5 - Standing Vertical 27.5

Kawhi Leonard 32 - 25.5

You don't seem to understand that bigs and forwards don't need to have the same type of hops as guards. Try again....

I’m sticking with my comp of something between Eason, Peyton Watson, Achiuwa for Rasheer, which might be fine for what’s needed between Castle and Wemby. I kind of feel he doesn’t have the personality makeup that the Spurs are looking for at this moment though.

Spurs liked players with that type of demeanor before

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I've taken a liking to Sorber at 14 and can't shake it. I'd really like to get Kornet in Spurs uniform too, but I don't think they can do both, and I have concerns over what Kornet might cost. If Hartenstein is worth 3yr/$87M...

Sorber will be available at #14. But I don't think Spurs will pick him for the following reasons:

1. Foot injury is a real concern. It will recover completely. But it also means his foot may be too weak to carry his weight. That's a big No for a big guy.

2. He is too slow to run fastbreak. I believe Spurs will like to run because we have 3 fast point guards and one fast center.

3. He cannot shoot 3s (yet). Will clog the lane.

4. He cannot defend the perimeter.

[Ice009]

Sorber will be available at #14. But I don't think Spurs will pick him for the following reasons:

1. Foot injury is a real concern. It will recover completely. But it also means his foot may be too weak to carry his weight. That's a big No for a big guy.

2. He is too slow to run fastbreak. I believe Spurs will like to run because we have 3 fast point guards and one fast center.

3. He cannot shoot 3s (yet). Will clog the lane.

4. He cannot defend the perimeter.

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

[Guru of Nothing]

Yes, on the other hand, Sorber sucks at the guard position.

[Vienna]

I never said he was Giannis, I was comparing measurements and body type

……….


Fleming: Max Vertical Leap 32.5 - Standing Vertical 27.5

Kawhi Leonard 32 - 25.5

You don't seem to understand that bigs and forwards don't need to have the same type of hops as guards. Try again....

who do you come up next? LeBron?

this remis me a lot about Tyler Bey in 2020. some people were talking him into 1st round (I remember, I thought that way), but some even into lottery. Wingspan, Shooting, Defense were the selling points. Sounds familiar?

[Russ]

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

Sorber has great footwork around the basket. He's a big who can (and will) score inside.

I don't think he's anywhere near as slow as some do. He's just efficient and doesn't show a lot of wasted motion.

[RC_Drunkford]

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

most complete Center in the entire draft. Only thing he's missing is a jumpshot.

who do you come up next? LeBron?

this remis me a lot about Tyler Bey in 2020. some people were talking him into 1st round (I remember, I thought that way), but some even into lottery. Wingspan, Shooting, Defense were the selling points. Sounds familiar?

so is nephew unathletic? why are you bringing up something completely different? I'm sure you were high on Tyler Bey, since he was so super athletic

Kinda funny that you fell for a player with a 43" vertical who shot 13/31 from 3, but think it's the same case as a player who shot 62/159 and has a comparable vertical to Kawhi Leonard and Chris Bosh

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Mr. Vienna, another comparison of Fleming is Kenyon Martin.

Remember the outlet pass from Jason Kidd to Kenyon Martin?

Castle/Harper are both good rebounders and passers. They can have similar connections with our bigs if we draft fast bigs like Fleming and Raynound.

Both Fleming and Raynound can run to the rim and dunk or stop at the 3 point line and pop.

If one of our guys is one step too slow, some good opportunities will be lost.

That's why fit is so important for the current Spurs. I don't see Spurs draft guys like Queen or Sorber, no matter how many other good qualities they have.

[rascal]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

[The Truth #6]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

Definitely likely. But Coward or Bryant (if available) seem very on brand for Wright. too.

[dn0774]

The Sorber tape is intriguing, interesting weapon on offense. He looks like he would get abused defensively, feet look slow, imagine he would be hunted on switches relentlessly. Not where I would want to go with 14.

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

I would hate to draft someone who's ceiling is bench player at 14

[Vienna]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

would be my #3 choice for the pick, but I would also be happy, if they picked him. He will be good in the role he would get. His C&S split was far better, than off the dribble, he will be a far better shooter in that role, than at UConn. Does enough things well. Yes, he won‘t become a star. Quality role player, but that‘s what you want at 14.

[stnick2261]

I'd rather have a high floor than a high ceiling at #14 this year. We have our stars. We need a higher percentage of hitting a solid role player.

[scott]

I would hate to draft someone who's ceiling is bench player at 14

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

[Dejounte]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

Seems the best move is to trade our 14th pick plus whatever to get two picks in the 15-22 range.

[Seventyniner]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

Nice chart, and the data shows that you're right. I wonder if a chart that includes up to 2024 changes anything?

[jesterbobman]

If pulling a T-Wolves is on the table, I think the Warriors are intriguing. Last days of the Steph dynasty, limited avenues to improve, could try and get something like the 2028 pick and a 2029 swap (both unprotected) for #14. Could try a similar deal with the Lakers - they're less interesting to me as the upside seems more limited with them having a chance to rebuild around Luka, but same idea.

[Ariel]

Seems the best move is to trade our 14th pick plus whatever to get two picks in the 15-22 range.

Brooklyn: 19, 26, 27
OKC: 15, 24
Orlando: 16, 25
14 for 19 + 27, or 14 + 38 + future 2nd for either 15 + 24 or 16 + 25, don't seem too far fetched.

[mudyez]

Brooklyn: 19, 26, 27
OKC: 15, 24
Orlando: 16, 25
14 for 19 + 27, or 14 + 38 + future 2nd for either 15 + 24 or 16 + 25, don't seem too far fetched.

Especially if Maxime is their actual target.

[scott]

Nice chart, and the data shows that you're right. I wonder if a chart that includes up to 2024 changes anything?

I wish this study was updated, but we can take a look at the general range (which I'll call 11-15) since then.

2013:

#11 - Michael Carter Williams - This one is tough. Won ROY. Averaged double digits to start his career. Then faded but stuck around the league. Rotation player?
#12 - Steven Adams - Solid starter.
#13 - Kelly Olynyk - Solid rotation player.
#14 - Shabazz Muhammed - Fringe bust?
#15 - Giannis - All Pro.

2014:

#11 - Doug McDermott - Rotation player.
#12 - Dario Saric - Rotation player.
#13 - Zach Lavine - Solid starter.
#14 - TJ Warren - Rotation player who was a solid starter for a good 3-4 year stretch (when healthy)
#15 - Adreian Payne - Bust.

2015:

#11 - Myles Turner - Solid starter.
#12 - Trey Lyles - Fringe rotation player.
#13 - Devin Booker - All Pro.
#14 - Cam Payne - Fringe rotation player.
#15 - Kelly Oubre - Rotation player.

2016:

#11 - Domantas Sabonis - Fringe All Star
#12 - Taurean Prince - Rotation player
#13 - Georgion Papagiannis - Bust.
#14 - Denzel Valentine - Bust
#15 - Juancho Hernangomez. Replacement level (Spurs legend though)

2017:

#11 - Malik Monk - Should be a solid starter. Perennial 6MOY candidate.
#12 - Luke Kennard - Rotation Player
#13 - Donovan Mitc - All Pro
#14 - Bam Adebayo - All Pro
#15 - Justin Jackson - Replacement level

2018:

#11 - SGA - All pro
#12 - Miles Bridges - Human trash can, but a solid starter.
#13 - Jerome Robinson - Bust
#14 - MPJ - Solid Starter, just broken and overpaid
#15 - Troy Brown Jr - Fringe rotation player

2019:

#11 - Cam Johnson - Solid starter
#12 - PJ Washington - Solid role player/fringe starter
#13 - Tyler Herro - Solid starter/fringe all star
#14 - Romeo Langford - Replacement player. Another Spurs legend.
#15 - Sekou Doumbouya - Bust

2020:

#11 - Devin Vassell - Solid role player/fringe starter
#12 - Tyrese Haliburton - Solid starter/fringe all star/playoff clutch wizard/overrated per his peers
#13 - Kira Lewis Jr - Bust
#14 - Aaron Nesmith - Solid role player/fringe starter/balls of steel/guy I wanted
#15 - Cole Anthony - rotation player

2021:

#11 - James Bouknight - Bust
#12 - Josh Primo - LOL
#13 - Chris Duarte - Replacement player after a fast start
#14 - Moses Moody - Rotation player
#15 - Corey Kispert - Rotation Player

I think it's still too early to go beyond this.

So out of the 45 players taken from 2013 - 2021, I count (if I am counting correctly):

17 Fringe Starter or better (37.8%)

So... less than a 40% chance of doing better than a rotation player, with plenty of bust opportunity. Certainly I don't think a team should set their sights on a "just a rotation player" - but if you end up with a rotation/role player out of this range... you did about as well as expected.

[RC_Drunkford]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

sure, but I think that's his ceiling. There are other guys who's ceiling is starting caliber and I'm fine with them becoming serviceable bench players, but at least roll the dice on it.

[Limguogolo]

I summarize your tremendous work: at pick 14 in a draft unanimously considered strong, you are looking for the best player available, a potential starter or a solid rotation player on a strong team. A 3 or 4 would be ideal.

I'm biased, but that would fit with Noah Penda. This may still seem high, but unlike the others he has the advantage of playing in the play-off. On Wednesday, his team plays against the Euroleague finalist (which is played today). Penda is a versatile player like Batum-Diaw. Pass first, great defender, smart, good at 3s, not the rebounder you expect.