Reply With Quote
you clearly don't know how the Senate works and polarization. 24 states voted for Trump by 13% or more, they aren't in danger of flipping blue at any federal level state-wide. In 2026 your very very best case is winning NC and holding GA and MI and none of those are a better than 50% shot. Well, maybe GA is if they nominate someone stupid again like in 2022. But you're also playing defense in open seats like NH which was narrower than you thought in 2016 and 2024. And all of that only gets you to a 48-seat minority. You think Maine's going to flip? It's not, they have ranked choice voting which favors the in bent, and she's a very popular and powerful in bent, even if she does have a moderate voting record (by design and necessity) but even if somehow you did take out Collins you're only up to 49 seats and that's still an unlikely inside straight.
As far as the House goes, it will literally come down to gerrymandering wars on both sides and how courts especially the supreme court rule on issues like the voting rights act section 2, and that doesn't look good for the Democrats, but good news for Democrats is as of tonight with a blue state trifecta in VA you're probably going to get to draw out 2 Republicans if the state court there allows for it, which isn't a guarantee given about half the VA state supreme court is Republican appointed.
California Prop. 50 I'm expecting will pass tonight, and the CA Dems and Newsom are expected to draw out 4-5 Republicans there. But if VRA section II is gutted then the confederate state GOP will be ruthless everywhere except Georgia because Kemp is spineless. The House is a pure toss up and really depends right now on the maps.
Eh maybe 250k-400k, which would easily make the state reliably dark pink to red, given that Trump won the state by an average of 200k votes across all three elections anyway
Whatley would edge out Cooper even in a blue wave (say D+5) environment hypothetically in 2026
Culture wars have ruined the Democrats' voter edge with moderates they had in 2008 and the Obama era. Inflation and Biden's senility had little effect on the 2022 midterms, in fact the Dems did just fine. Again the house will depend on the maps but even say a D+5 national environment in 2026 similar to 2018, won't win them more than a cap of 48 senate seats. Heck, in 2018 the Ds in a blue wave year LOST net Senate seats because of post-Obama polarization that legacy red state blue senators could not overcome. Senate elections are very federalized, this isn't the Reagan era or even the 2000s, blue senate candidates don't win in deep red states and red senate candidates don't win in deep blue states, if the Scott Brown Massachusetts race were held even in a R-favorable year like 2021 instead of 2009 then he'd lose by 20% because the race would be hyper-nationalized.
there's a possibility there could be some dummymandering in both directions in the House but it's very improbable to flip a Trump+15 or Biden+15 seat in any case, and that does nothing to back up your ignorant Senate argument.
of course not, he's a liberal secular Ashkenazi Jewish Democrat, he supported Cuomo all the way. Far from a conservative. He and other Wall Street hedge fund jewish types are probably scared of Mamdani, which is funny.
state to state thing, but east coast bureaucrats and their friends/families regardless of age are very likely to vote blue
VA/NJ is not Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin.
nothing to do with Spanberger, she was always going to win, Sears was an atrociously incompetent challenger.
Everything to do with pedo-homicidal maniac Jay Jones.
