*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[ChumpDumper]

Any updates, TSA?

[velik_m]

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy, according to data released Friday.

Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain.

Consumer spending increased at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”

For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-...mber-2025.html

[CosmicCowboy]

Dang... got lucky. I took a lot of profits off the table before New Years on Mag 7 tech stocks when I realized there was gona be a lot of questions about ultimate payoff on the massive capx they were all throwing at AI. They have been sucking wind since then. Went international on a South Korea ETF, a Brazil ETF, a Global Robotics ETF, and a China tech ETF. They all have been kicking ass to start the year but with the Supreme Court gift today they are all screaming up today. still got some US stuff, a gold miner, VRT which as blown up 150% since I got in. I have taken my share of losses on early bets over the years but am liking where I am now.

[TSA]

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy, according to data released Friday.

Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain.

Consumer spending increased at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”

For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024.



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-...mber-2025.html

[Winehole23]

US Olympic freestyle skier Hunter Hess qualifies 5th in halfpipe

“I had a week that was pretty challenging,” he said. “Luckily, my family was there to support me and help me get through it. There was a lot of noise and I've never been subject to that kind of criticism. Skiing has saved my life time and time again and it seems to have done so again."

He said, "There's been a lot of hate out there. All those people are super en led to their opinion, and I respect it."

Ultimately, though, he said he had no second thoughts about what he said in that fateful Feb. 6 news conference. The message, he insisted, was really a message of support.

\I stand with what I said. I love the United States of America. I cannot reiterate that enough. It means the absolute world to me to be able to represent Team USA here. I worked so, so hard to get here. I stick with what I said.”

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/leute/olympia-freestyle-skier-hess-zieht-ins-finale-ein-und-zeigt-was-er-von-trumps-loser-kritik-haelt-a-353347bc-2e08-4862-98d2-775bea18806f
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/olympics/2026-milan-cortina/hunter-hess-responds-trump-loser-comment-after-qualifying-halfpipe-freeski/6465665/

[ChumpDumper]

one month ago you said the Q4 GDP was going to be 5.4% -- no exceptions, no qualifications.

It's just another thing you are wrong about, dude.

Why do you keep trying to impress us with gaslighting?

[Blake]

"President Trump hates the United States’ trade deficit. Indeed, he is so concerned about the “economic and national security risks” the deficit creates that he imposed a tariff regime that raised geopolitical tensions across the globe.

The only problem is that his tariffs don’t appear to be rebalancing the huge volume of goods and services the U.S. imports, versus its declining exports.

The goods and services deficit for the U.S. was $70.3 billion in December, up $17.3 billion from $53 billion in November, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), released yesterday...."

https://fortune.com/2026/02/20/trump...ports-imports/

He's a ing moron. You bootlicks that hang on his every word are bigger morons.

[velik_m]

U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined, following a sharp revision showing a drop of 17,000 in December.

At the same time, the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% as jobs declined across key areas. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved lower, to 7.9% or 0.2 percentage point below the January level.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/febr...bs-report.html

[Spurs Homer]

Republicans...
take power
crash the economy
start wars
commit crimes
loot the treasury

water is wet

[velik_m]

[Winehole23]

wrong direction

[ChumpDumper]

TSA needs to explain how all this is actually good news.

[velik_m]

BlackRock $26 Billion Private Credit Fund Limits Withdrawals

BlackRock Inc. curbed withdrawals from one of its biggest private credit funds after client requests for redemptions ed, the latest sign of investor anxiety about the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

The firm’s $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, one of the largest non-traded business development companies, said in a statement Friday that shareholders requested 9.3% of their shares, but management decided to cap the repurchases at 5%. While the total value of shares would have been about $1.2 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations, investors will get back about $620 million that the fund held at year-end.

It’s the clearest instance of gating withdrawals among major private credit funds since late last year, when investors grew increasingly skittish about the asset class after high-profile collapses raised concerns about lending standards. Many firms had thus far opted to meet the higher redemption requests or looked to repay investors by other means.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-withdrawals

Oracle and OpenAI End Plans to Expand Flagship Data Center

Oracle Corp. and OpenAI have scrapped plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas after negotiations dragged over financing and OpenAI’s changing needs.

The collapsed talks created an opening for Meta Platforms Inc. to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe, according to people familiar with the matter. Nvidia Corp., the leading AI chipmaker, helped facilitate Meta’s discussions with the developer, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

The shifting plans underscore the complexity of building out AI data centers, which are expected to cost in the tens of billions of dollars and require cooperation from a wide swath of partners.

The campus being developed by Crusoe in Abilene is part of the highly publicized Stargate project, which was announced last year at the White House with President Donald Trump. While the 1,000-acre site continues to be built, and several parts are up and running, Oracle and OpenAI elected not to go forward with tentative plans to lease a large expansion, the people said.

...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ip-data-center

[velik_m]

Nearly 1,000 workers laid off at SK Battery plant in Georgia as companies cancel EVs and Trump Admin eliminates auto company incentives

Battery company SK Battery America Inc. laid off nearly 1,000 workers at a manufacturing plant northeast of Atlanta on Friday amid automakers’ changing electrification plans and uncertain consumer demand for EVs.

The company said Friday marked the last working day for 958 plant employees, according to a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN, notice filed by human resources chief Chuck Moore. Impacted workers will be paid through May 6.

SK opened the $2.6 billion battery plant in Commerce, Georgia, in January 2022. It notably supplied the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. Ford announced plans to cancel the fully electric version of the truck in December.

The news comes as the U.S. electric vehicle market is at a standstill amid the Trump administration steering federal support away from electrification in favor of more lax automotive emissions policies and a broader agenda supporting the oil and gas industries.
...

https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/sk-ba...tric-vehicles/

[ChumpDumper]

“This is very strong early validation of our model’s transitional “sentiment inflection” in Q4 2025–Q1 2026: the economic rebound (gas at $2.95/gal, rents falling, +1.2M jobs Nov 2025, goods deflation emerging) is starting to register with voters, narrowing the “affordability hole” from -21 (Apr 2025) to -9 now — and our model projects it flips positive by mid-2026 as the full relief wave hits (rebates, tax cuts, FDI factories, oil plunge).

The “slowly beginning to give positive rating” language is key: sentiment is lagging hard indicators (jobs, prices), but the trend is clearly upward — exactly the “hard vs. soft” dynamic Hassett keeps emphasizing. In a polarized environment, moving from -21 to -9 in 9 months (while Trump approval is still ~45%) is huge momentum for the in bent party.”

https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/2014532890185408813

Any updates, TSA?

Or are you just about historical ship locations now?

[Blake]

Any updates, TSA?

Or are you just about historical ship locations now?

The mental gymnastics getting harder and harder to perform even for the staunchest of Trump lovers

[ChumpDumper]

The mental gymnastics getting harder and harder to perform even for the staunchest of Trump lovers

It's just another thing he shut the up about when he realized he was wrong.
















































Again.

lol

[velik_m]

Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock — SK hynix forced to diversify after 30% of global supply removed from the market

QatarEnergy has not restarted helium production at its Ras Laffan complex — one of the largest concentrations of helium production infrastructure globally — nine days after Iranian drone strikes forced the facility offline. The ensuing disruption to supply has sparked concerns for South Korea's chip industry, Nikkei reports.

The facility went offline on March 2 following drone strikes, removing approximately 30% of global helium supply from the market. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on existing contracts on March 4, freeing it from supply obligations to customers, and industry outlet Gasworld reported on March 7 that no imminent restart is planned.

Helium consultant Phil Kornbluth, speaking at a Gasworld webinar on March 4, said that if the outage extends beyond roughly two weeks, industrial gas distributors could be forced to relocate cryogenic equipment and revalidate supplier relationships, a process that could stretch over months regardless of when Qatari output resumes.

South Korea is among the most exposed countries, which, according to the Korea International Trade Association, imported 64.7% of its helium from Qatar in 2025. The country relies heavily on helium imports to cool silicon wafers during fabrication and is understood to have no viable subs ute.

...

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-in...two-week-clock

[velik_m]

Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period, hampered by a record-long government shutdown that saw government spending tumble 16.7%.

For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace.

...

The inflation data “tells us that the inflation picture wasn’t looking good even before the Middle East crisis,” said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist for the Carson Group. “An already large headache for the Federal Reserve is going to turn into an even larger one, and it’s likely the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 and may even start talking about rate hikes later this year.”

Personal income and spending in January both increased 0.4%, against respective estimates for 0.5% and 0.3%. The personal saving rate jumped half a percentage point to 4.5%.

Within the GDP report, a proxy for demand known as private sales to private domestic purchasers increased just 1.9% in Q4, revised down by half a percentage point and a full point lower than the prior quarter.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/four...t1percent.html

[Winehole23]

2nd worst returns since 1995

2026 similar to last year in that respect -- US underperforms the world

[Blake]

It's just another thing he shut the up about when he realized he was wrong.
















































Again.

lol

" o from Korea!"

[velik_m]

[Winehole23]

credibility and legitimacy aren't wokist slogans, losing them has real world consequences

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/0...-ties-00823457

[Winehole23]

Trump is making this country poorer, less influential and weaker on the international stage

[velik_m]

SEC Prepares Proposal to Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement

The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year, according to people familiar with the matter.

...

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulati...ement-1d700bbb