Breaking down the matchups against the Lakers

[DDS4]

Besides the usual stars like TD and Kobe, it always comes down to how well the role players play.

Bench is going to be crucial in this series.

[Galileo]

What kind of breakdown is the OP?

Parker vs Fisher - This is matchup the Spurs have to win big. Parker is the engine that gets SA's offense going, while Fisher is the steady force for the Lakers that stretches the D. Fisher has played well on defense this playoffs against Iverson and Deron Williams but Parkers relentlessness in getting to the basket is something else. SA likely will iso Parker on Fisher because the PnR brings defensive help that Parker doesn't need. How many games Fisher stays in front of Parker early determines who wins this series. On the flip side, Fisher will burn Parker whenever he helps, and his lack of size doesn't stop Fisher from taking the 3. Also, Fisher's reputation and experience helps.

Advantage - Spurs (but how big of an advantage is key - Parker has to dominate for the Spurs to win - 25+ppg).

Kobe vs Bowen - Advantage is obvious but a key is how physical the refs allow Bowen to be on the MVP. Rep vs rep. Bowen has to keep Kobe outside while still challenging his J. Whenever Kobe gets by him, SA's entire defense is compromised because of Kobe's finishing and passing ability. On the flip side, Bowen has to make Kobe pay from 3 for gambling off of him, otherwise Kobe will disrupt Parker and Duncan.

Advantage: Lakers - with Kobe's FG% being the key. Kobe needs to shoot 45%+ for LA to be successful. If he's over 50%, this series is a wrap.

Ginobili vs Radmanovic - I doubt Pop brings Manu off the bench considering the rythym SA is in. Easy advantage for Manu against Rad - who only will play 20 minutes tops. If Rad scores 8+ in any game, its a bad sign for the Spurs. Manu has to be a big-time scorer - he shot very poorly vs LA this season - mainly because of the length that LA guards him with. How Manu does against Walton and Ariza will be more important. Can he get by Ariza? Can he defend Walton in the post?

Advantage - Spurs.

Oberto/Thomas vs Odom - Neither guy has the footspeed to stay with Odom nor the quickness to keep him off the glass. I doubt either gets much playing time and Duncan won't play him (see later). Just like the Manu matchup, the Odom one will be determined on how he does against other role players, but Odom has finally learned how to play without the ball and is making a killing slashing to the basket off the moves of Kobe and Gasol.

Advantage - Lakers. Odom's head can be taken out of the game by no-calls. How he keeps it is key.

Duncan vs Gasol - The two guys will go one-on-one most of the game. Pop uses Duncan to guard Gasol because Duncan will be closer to the basket and he's less likely to pick up fouls defending a post player where the refs let things go, than someone attacking the basket off the dribble. Both guys have trouble with double-teams once they put the ball on the floor (LA will do this constantly in the 4th agains Duncan) but it will be mostly one-on-one because both teams will be concerned about the 3-point shooters. Duncan needs to go off but he needs Parker especially to get his first. LA runs a lot of cuts off Gasol in the post - we'll see if SA is ready for it. LA is an amazing 30-6 when Gasol plays more than 3 minutes.

Advantage - Spurs. LA needs Gasol to hang tough. Either big gets in foul trouble and that team is going to lose.

Coaching - Phil vs Pop. Both HOF coaches. Not much needs to be said - both know each other very well.

Advantage - Lakers.- Gotta point to scoreboard and rings - 14-7 and 9-4 in favor of Phil.

Bench - If Ginobili continues to start, this will be a big factor. The 3 point shooting from each squad is obvious (Finley, Vujacic, Horry, Walton, Barry, Farmar) but the intangibles will win it. I expect Horry and Barry to do it for SA, Turiaf and Walton for the Lakers. Horry and Turiaf inside on D off the bench will determine many of 2nd quarters, as will Barry being the real backup PG for the Spurs. Walton will go inside more because Ginobili is too light to guard him in the post. Wild cards are Udoka and Ariza. If healthy, Ariza athleticism will be seen often against Tony Parker to keep him out of the paint. SA will also need Udoka the same way guarding Kobe and Odom.

Advantage - Lakers - I give it to LA just because of the speed they have over the Spurs bench. The Spurs bench is full of heady players who can gum up the tri but they won't be able to keep up with the Lakers bench when thery run.

Intaginbles - Defending champs vs MVP and Co. Spurs will obviously be the most poised team in this series but the Lakers have the most momentum. If I'm the Spurs, I hate the schedule, and it starts off bad with the airplane issue. Both teams are fully capable of winning on the opponents home court so HCA isn't an issue. We all know Kobe will be on a mission though. Can he do what LeBron couldn't last year? Do the Spurs have enough gas in the tank?

Advantage - Spurs. - You gotta beat the King to be the King.

I think both teams split the first 4 games with LA winning in 6.

here is a simpler analysis. Instead of comparing by position, compare by ranking players:

Best Player

Duncan vs Kobe

Advantage Spurs

Next Two Best Players

Parker/Ginobili vs Gasol/Odom

Even, or small advantage lakers because of Gasol

Rest of Team

either even or small advantage Spurs, becaue of Bowen

Spurs win in 5 or 6.

[travis2]

Spurs have Duncan but the Lakers have the alleged rapist Kobe - best player on Planet Earth - Bowen cannot guard Kobe and he will need help so the Lakers will have to hit shots too. This series will be determined by the bench. Will Horry, Bones, Udoke and FInley hit shots or will Sasha, Walton and Farmar hit shots?

ummmmm...Bowen normally takes Kobe 1-on-1, no help. And does it well.

[wildchild]

For the Spurs' starters on D:
Duncan on Gasol and Odom
Oberto on Odom and Gasol
Bowen on Bryant
Ginobili on Radmanovic
Parker on Fisher

Agree. I doubt Oberto/Thomas on Radmanovic 'because Bowen on Odom and Manu on Kobe.

I prefer Duncan on Gasol and Oberto/Thomas/Horry on Odom.

[ManuTim_best of Fwiendz]

Thomas/Oberto v.s. Radmonovic (sp?)
Two players who represent the very different styles of teams - Thomas and Oberto are bangers who will do a good job on either Radmonivic or Gasol, but who don't have the jump shooting ability that he has. But I still give the EDGE: Spurs because I expect quite a few post ups for both Spurs Cs.

Oberto and KT won't post up anyone. That's not their game.

They'd score off cuts, garbage points and open jumpers.

Radmanovic is a nothing. They'll probably guard Odom at times, and Oberto/KT might bother Gasol, since he's played him in International ball? Although Oberto may be too short. Then again. Gasol is "soft".

[Referee]

Oh I think we got someone that may give you a bit of a challenge...

Please let me see Kobe going into the paint for a slam dunk when all of a sudden the main man Mr. Big Shot levels Kobe with his own slammer... Just make the free throws KB24... Think the next time you launch... Your Black and Forum Blueness is just about to show for all to see. Hit him and hit him hard... Kurt Thomas wants a few licks too I presume...

[2Cleva]

here is a simpler analysis. Instead of comparing by position, compare by ranking players:

Best Player

Duncan vs Kobe

Advantage Spurs

Next Two Best Players

Parker/Ginobili vs Gasol/Odom

Even, or small advantage lakers because of Gasol

Rest of Team

either even or small advantage Spurs, becaue of Bowen

Spurs win in 5 or 6.

Duncan better than Kobe? Right now? C'mon now. Duncan already has gone AWOL one playoff game this year. He shot less than 38% vs LA this season. He's not the reigning MVP and he's became the anchor, not the driving force, of what the Spurs have done these past 2 seasons.

[ManuTim_best of Fwiendz]

Did you just say Bowen will outscore Bryant ? No way -- no way in will Bowen outscore Bryant in any game for this series.

Didn't Bowen outscore Kobe in one of the regular season match ups for a while this year??

[1Parker1]

Unlike the Hornets, the Lakers actually have a very deep bench. It was easy to have the game plan against the Hornets of shutting down their 3rd scorer (Peja), giving different looks to CP3, and playing West one on one. I think the Spurs may try to use this same strategy a little bit differently. They know Kobe is going to get his, they need to stop Gasol/Odom from being playmakers and getting everyone else involved, and they need to be especially weary of guys like Walton, Fischer, Vuijic, Farmar, etc coming in and just hitting 3's. Hornets didn't have bench players who could do that, aside from Pargo and he didn't get going until Game 7.

[K-State Spur]

Did you just say Bowen will outscore Bryant ? No way -- no way in will Bowen outscore Bryant in any game for this series.

I'd bet against it occurring. But if it did - it wouldn't be the first time...or even the first time this season.

(And Bruce has even matched Kobe in a playoff game before.)

[1Parker1]

Duncan better than Kobe? Right now? C'mon now. Duncan already has gone AWOL one playoff game this year. He shot less than 38% vs LA this season. He's not the reigning MVP and he's became the anchor, not the driving force, of what the Spurs have done these past 2 seasons.

You obviously don't watch the Spurs. There's a reason the Spurs got blown out the first two games in NO. There's also a reason the Spurs won in double OT in Game 1 of the playoffs against the Suns, a game which pretty much took away the hopes of the Suns. Tim Duncan is still the driving force behind the Spurs.

[BlingX14]

You think?

Stop living in the past, Timmy's just a shadow of his former self. Who's this year's MVP?

[Supergirl]

I'd bet against it occurring. But if it did - it wouldn't be the first time...or even the first time this season.

(And Bruce has even matched Kobe in a playoff game before.)

It certainly wasn't the first time. Bowen has had some of his best offensive games against the Lakers, because the Lakers consistently leave him open for wide open 3's.

And I love how even though Bowen has been harassing Kobe 1:1 well since 2003, people continue to say he can't guard Kobe. LMAO.

The reason the Spurs will win is simple: The Spurs play defense. They know how to shut down outside jump shots and disrupt a team's offense. The Lakers have a very efficient offense, but don't play defense consistently or reliably, especially on the road. If the Spurs can still one of the first 2 on the road, this will be an easy series, over in 5 games. If they can't, they'll win it in 6 or 7 games, which I think is more likely. The refs will be so VERY much on the Lakers side, esp in Staples Center, so the Spurs will have to play through that. But they've played through some terrible ref jobs in the first two rounds.

[polandprzem]

Udoka played Odom quite well in the season although Odom was not as good as he is now.

Pop will have to use him when the small ball arrives. Plus we got some Horry.



Umm this all matchups comparison is bull

[beachwood]

Kobe is a great player. But there is too much hype around him, so he became overrated.

As much as I would want to bury Kobe, I can't hate on the guy. He has earned all the hype. He's a phenomenal player.

When Shaq was booted, whoever thought the Lakers would successfully build a team around Kobe; or more to the point, that Kobe could lead a team built around him?

With all that being said, I hope we kick his ass and make him cry again.

[Southwest Texas Fan]

ummmmm...Bowen normally takes Kobe 1-on-1, no help. And does it well.

While I do agree this lakers team seems to play well even when Kobe is not so it will have to be a team effort.

[smeagol]

farmar sucked against jazz

Is Farmar a character out of LOTR?

Boromir's brother . . .

[michaelwcho]

Kobe is NOT overrated. I don't understand how anyone could come to that conclusion. Is he arrogant? Yes. Is he an ass? Yes. Can you find a million bad things to say about him? Yes. But overrated is not one of them. He deserved the MVP this year.

The Lakers are the #1 seed in a tough Western Conference. The Lakers, like us, dealt with injuries this year and found a way to win. And I think Kobe was the main reason for that.

The "numbahs" show:
1. When we look at each of these tables we see that Kobe is indeed the star on the Lakers. But relative to other “stars” he comes up short. He simply is not as productive as Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Jason Kidd, etc…
2. On a per-48 minutes basis, two years ago Kobe’s teammates were the seventh most productive collection. Such results tell us that Kobe did not have “bad” teammates in 2005-06.
3. But is it understood that Kobe is not much different from Pierce? Kobe gets a few more points and assists, but Pierce gets more rebounds. The net of these differences is about the same player over the last eight years. As far as I know, though, no one is calling Pierce the best player since MJ.

Read 'em and weep. I'll wait here for you to come back and tell me you don't believe in stats.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/10/18/kobe-myths/

[pad300]

What kind of breakdown is the OP?

Parker vs Fisher - This is matchup the Spurs have to win big. Parker is the engine that gets SA's offense going, while Fisher is the steady force for the Lakers that stretches the D. Fisher has played well on defense this playoffs against Iverson and Deron Williams but Parkers relentlessness in getting to the basket is something else. SA likely will iso Parker on Fisher because the PnR brings defensive help that Parker doesn't need. How many games Fisher stays in front of Parker early determines who wins this series. On the flip side, Fisher will burn Parker whenever he helps, and his lack of size doesn't stop Fisher from taking the 3. Also, Fisher's reputation and experience helps.

Advantage - Spurs (but how big of an advantage is key - Parker has to dominate for the Spurs to win - 25+ppg).

Kobe vs Bowen - Advantage is obvious but a key is how physical the refs allow Bowen to be on the MVP. Rep vs rep. Bowen has to keep Kobe outside while still challenging his J. Whenever Kobe gets by him, SA's entire defense is compromised because of Kobe's finishing and passing ability. On the flip side, Bowen has to make Kobe pay from 3 for gambling off of him, otherwise Kobe will disrupt Parker and Duncan.

Advantage: Lakers - with Kobe's FG% being the key. Kobe needs to shoot 45%+ for LA to be successful. If he's over 50%, this series is a wrap.

Ginobili vs Radmanovic - I doubt Pop brings Manu off the bench considering the rythym SA is in. Easy advantage for Manu against Rad - who only will play 20 minutes tops. If Rad scores 8+ in any game, its a bad sign for the Spurs. Manu has to be a big-time scorer - he shot very poorly vs LA this season - mainly because of the length that LA guards him with. How Manu does against Walton and Ariza will be more important. Can he get by Ariza? Can he defend Walton in the post?

Advantage - Spurs.

Oberto/Thomas vs Odom - Neither guy has the footspeed to stay with Odom nor the quickness to keep him off the glass. I doubt either gets much playing time and Duncan won't play him (see later). Just like the Manu matchup, the Odom one will be determined on how he does against other role players, but Odom has finally learned how to play without the ball and is making a killing slashing to the basket off the moves of Kobe and Gasol.

Advantage - Lakers. Odom's head can be taken out of the game by no-calls. How he keeps it is key.

Duncan vs Gasol - The two guys will go one-on-one most of the game. Pop uses Duncan to guard Gasol because Duncan will be closer to the basket and he's less likely to pick up fouls defending a post player where the refs let things go, than someone attacking the basket off the dribble. Both guys have trouble with double-teams once they put the ball on the floor (LA will do this constantly in the 4th agains Duncan) but it will be mostly one-on-one because both teams will be concerned about the 3-point shooters. Duncan needs to go off but he needs Parker especially to get his first. LA runs a lot of cuts off Gasol in the post - we'll see if SA is ready for it. LA is an amazing 30-6 when Gasol plays more than 3 minutes.

Advantage - Spurs. LA needs Gasol to hang tough. Either big gets in foul trouble and that team is going to lose.

Coaching - Phil vs Pop. Both HOF coaches. Not much needs to be said - both know each other very well.

Advantage - Lakers.- Gotta point to scoreboard and rings - 14-7 and 9-4 in favor of Phil.

Bench - If Ginobili continues to start, this will be a big factor. The 3 point shooting from each squad is obvious (Finley, Vujacic, Horry, Walton, Barry, Farmar) but the intangibles will win it. I expect Horry and Barry to do it for SA, Turiaf and Walton for the Lakers. Horry and Turiaf inside on D off the bench will determine many of 2nd quarters, as will Barry being the real backup PG for the Spurs. Walton will go inside more because Ginobili is too light to guard him in the post. Wild cards are Udoka and Ariza. If healthy, Ariza athleticism will be seen often against Tony Parker to keep him out of the paint. SA will also need Udoka the same way guarding Kobe and Odom.

Advantage - Lakers - I give it to LA just because of the speed they have over the Spurs bench. The Spurs bench is full of heady players who can gum up the tri but they won't be able to keep up with the Lakers bench when thery run.

Intaginbles - Defending champs vs MVP and Co. Spurs will obviously be the most poised team in this series but the Lakers have the most momentum. If I'm the Spurs, I hate the schedule, and it starts off bad with the airplane issue. Both teams are fully capable of winning on the opponents home court so HCA isn't an issue. We all know Kobe will be on a mission though. Can he do what LeBron couldn't last year? Do the Spurs have enough gas in the tank?

Advantage - Spurs. - You gotta beat the King to be the King.

I think both teams split the first 4 games with LA winning in 6.

You expect Kobe to guard Bowen defensively? Interesting, historically, that has been the pattern, let Kobe rest on the defensive side. However, that puts the Lakers best perimeter defender on essentially a null, leaving them with half a perimeter defender to cover 2 scorers. (Radman = No D, Fisher = 1/2 a D, he's just not fast enough for Parker anymore, nor big enough for Gino). If Radman has to cover Gino, expect him to go to the hospital after game 1, with broken ankles...

I'd expect Radman hidden on Bowen, but Kobe having to cover Gino. No rest for Kobe on the defensive end, and the possibility of foul trouble as well...

Offensively, Odom is a mismatch against SA, however, unlike West/Diaw/Amare, his jumper is much less of a threat...

[Supergirl]

You expect Kobe to guard Bowen defensively? Interesting, historically, that has been the pattern, let Kobe rest on the defensive side. However, that puts the Lakers best perimeter defender on essentially a null, leaving them with half a perimeter defender to cover 2 scorers. (Radman = No D, Fisher = 1/2 a D, he's just not fast enough for Parker anymore, nor big enough for Gino). If Radman has to cover Gino, expect him to go to the hospital after game 1, with broken ankles...

I'd expect Radman hidden on Bowen, but Kobe having to cover Gino. No rest for Kobe on the defensive end, and the possibility of foul trouble as well...

Offensively, Odom is a mismatch against SA, however, unlike West/Diaw/Amare, his jumper is much less of a threat...

I agree - which is why I put Manu and Kobe in the same match up category. I think Kobe will give Manu trouble just like Bowen will give Kobe trouble.

I think this game will have a lot of defensive adjustments, and both coaches are known for being very good at this. But I think ultimately, the Spurs are a more versatile roster with more options down the line, and like I said, simply play better defense.

[2Cleva]

I expect Ariza off the bench to guard Manu, with Kobe on Parker only in the 4th if he's hot.

3/4 of the game, Kobe is on Bowen to prevent foul trouble.

[WalterBenitez]

Gasol < TD
KB > Manu
Fisher = TP?
Odom???

[DazedAndConfused]

It's going to be interesting to see how Pop handles his rotations this series. He definitely kept a short leash in that NOH series. Can he afford to ride the starters the same way in another potential 7-gamer? Especially considering every game is 2 days apart.

[DM28]

We got Tim Duncan and they don't. That's all there is to say. Everyone else balances out.

Spurs in 6

The Lakers have Kobe Bryant... and Gasol isn't as soft as everybody thinks he is. He shut down Boozer in the Utah series. Odom is also a definite x-factor who is playing the best basketball of his career. To think this is gonna be easy is ridulous.

[ElNono]

Stop living in the past, Timmy's just a shadow of his former self. Who's this year's MVP?

Talking about the present... Who are the reigning NBA champions?