Ike

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

You should get great gas mileage since you will probably have a 60mph tailwind with driving rain.

yeah! Strap a sail to the top of the car, put it in neutral, and let Mother Nature do the rest.

[Cry Havoc]

You're probably all right heading south on 35.

easjer, I don't know if I would be staying if I were you. I realize it's your choice, but I just read this article:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

It doesn't bode well for the entire Texas coast. This hurricane is a monster. If you calculate that he's moving ~10 mph at landfall, with hurricane force winds of 115 miles around, even if you don't take a dead hit from Ike, you're talking up to ~10+ hours of 74 mph winds (and over), and that's sustained. Gusts will be much higher. Also the torrential rain and tornadic possibilities make it a precarious situation, especially if he gains any core wind strength.

If you stay, please take every single precaution possible to make your home safe.

From the article:

This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

[easjer]

I appreciate the concern, CH, but we're not in a mandatory evac zone, and we made that mistake last time with Rita. We're not in danger from the storm surge on the SW side of town, and our area is only prone to flooding in water-logged rains. In fact, we've only had problems once in the two years in our house - and it wasn't our house/neighborhood that was the problem, our access home was blocked off.

I'll be honest, I'm worried. Our greatest threat is from winds, and we've got two-story windows and there isn't a damn thing we can do about it. We could have damage. But we ourselves will be relatively safe. We have water and food, and will be stopping on the way home to gather even more supplies to be safe. We have batteries, flashlights, radio, etc. car chargers for our cell phones and so on. We'll pick up a Texas roadmap for just in case, and if things get worse, we'll consider making a run for my mom's house in NB.

Car is gassed up, and when we get home tonight, we'll be cleaning out the storage closet under the stairs so we can shelter there - the safest part of our house, under the stairs and blocked off from any potential debris. SFIE will clear out the patio, and I'll be cleaning everything and putting as much away as possible.

We'll take all the precautions we can, but we feel like the most responsible thing to do now is shelter in place, because we aren't in danger of being flooded out. We know our house has made it through more than one hurricane, so we'll bank on that, and do what we can to be ready.

[MannyIsGod]

Honestly, I'd stay in Houston if I wasn't in a flood prone area. You have to factor my - as Melissa would put it - weather wood but at the same time I just don't think its going to be a huge storm wind wise. The winds aren't that strong to begin with, they're just WIDE. They aren't mixing to the surface very well either so I just don't see much of a reason for heading out if you're not going to flood or if you don't live in an unsturdy home.

I'd stay in a safe room and I'd have plenty of supplies - I'd def board my windows in that room at the least. Think of a spot you'd go in case of a tornado etc etc. This storm is giong to be very bad in Galveston but Houston Proper should come out of it relatively OK. Even Cat 1 storms leave a lot of wind damage in the form of downed limbs or trees and power limes, some roof damage and the like but they aren't usually something you'd evacuate for.

Keep in mind I'm a weather freak and if I had kids I'd leave just cause kids change everything.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, I think the chances of the storm coming west are extremely low. The models have had a lot of info to digest and they've started to really zone in on the area between freeport and matagorda bay. Its huge so San Antonio likely sees 40-50 mph winds and some rain (I dno't even think it'll be much rain tbh) but as long as you don't plan a picnic for Saturday you'll be fine.

The windfields are huge huge huge right now but they do tend to have less of an effect over land because of the friction between the wind and land. We will also be on the weaker side of the storm with winds coming off of East TX and not the Gulf. Then again, we already have a load of moisture in the air right now (its EXTREMELY high) so it won't take much to set off rain. We might actually see more rain than I'm thinking but the fact taht we're on the weaker side of the stormfactors into it quite a bit.

Although there's a good chance for minimal TS force winds in San Antonio it wouldn't suprise me if we only got winds around 25-30mph in the end.

[ATRAIN]

What about west houston Katy area?

[Ginofan]

Oh, I think the chances of the storm coming west are extremely low. The models have had a lot of info to digest and they've started to really zone in on the area between freeport and matagorda bay. Its huge so San Antonio likely sees 40-50 mph winds and some rain (I dno't even think it'll be much rain tbh) but as long as you don't plan a picnic for Saturday you'll be fine.

The windfields are huge huge huge right now but they do tend to have less of an effect over land because of the friction between the wind and land. We will also be on the weaker side of the storm with winds coming off of East TX and not the Gulf. Then again, we already have a load of moisture in the air right now (its EXTREMELY high) so it won't take much to set off rain. We might actually see more rain than I'm thinking but the fact taht we're on the weaker side of the stormfactors into it quite a bit.

Although there's a good chance for minimal TS force winds in San Antonio it wouldn't suprise me if we only got winds around 25-30mph in the end.

So it's WEST of the Galveston/Houston area? I thought they were all focusing on a dead on Galveston hit...

[easjer]

What about west houston Katy area?

According to the news report I just saw - wind damage and rain. How much and severe depends on where the eye is. Less rain and rain bands if it makes landfall with the eye near Galveston, but higher winds. Lower winds but the potential for an extra 6+ inches of rain if the eye centers on Freeport.

There is a decent chance Ike comes over Ft. Bend County/West Harris County as a Cat 3.

[easjer]

So it's WEST of the Galveston/Houston area? I thought they were all focusing on a dead on Galveston hit...

From what I just saw, some models have it hitting Galveston or east of Galveston, which would be better for Houston/Galveston - the biggest rain damage, the potential for tornados, the highest storm surge will then hit Chambers county upwards.

If it hits near Freeport, it'll cause more damage to the Houston/Galveston area, because the rain bands and the storm surge will be heaviest on the right side of the storm.

[CubanMustGo]

Houston, we have a problem.

[lebomb]

I bet IKE ends up in Louisiana.

[PM5K]

I bet IKE ends up in Louisiana.

I bet he ends up....







your ass....

[lebomb]

I bet he ends up....







your ass....

The only reason Im gonna let you slide is those tiggo bitties in your signature!!!!

[scott]

Jeff Masters says he thinks most likely probability is Cat 3 at landfall and HUUUUUUUUUGE.

Masters > Manny

[Trainwreck2100]

this storm not giving me rain

[easjer]

It's looking like more like Rita. I'm less worried now, because it looks like we're going to be in the eye or on the weak side of the storm. Not that I want to sit through a hurricane, but that's the place to be. It continues to move that direction.

[spurspf]

Just heard this a while ago. Not saying its right or that I agree with it but its just a joke people. so here:

FIMA San Antonio evacuation plan.

All whites take I-35 North.
All Mexicans take I-35 South.
All Blacks take 410.

[2centsworth]

best tracking website, so I've been told.

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

[CubanMustGo]

Just look at that sucker (from the link above):

[dougp]

It's looking like more like Rita. I'm less worried now, because it looks like we're going to be in the eye or on the weak side of the storm. Not that I want to sit through a hurricane, but that's the place to be. It continues to move that direction.

I'm gonna PM you guys my cell phone #, give me a call if you need any help afterwards. Hopefully we won't get anything bad in our area, I'm only a straight shot from beechnut and up newcastle to you guys.

Also, this better be clear on Monday, I have tickets to the Cowboys/Eagles game.

[phyzik]

cool image

[CosmicCowboy]

Dang

Models just updated. All the models are in general agreement and half the models have it hitting in EXACTLY the same spot which is EXACTLY the point where maximum storm surge would hit Galveston and Galveston Bay.

We We are talking a potential 25' surge in the back of Galveston Bay and 20' at Galveston's 17' sea wall. This could get VERY ugly.

[ashbeeigh]

this storm not giving me rain

my thoughts exactly...this newest update is a load of crap. Both for the rain for us and for the people in Galveston. It's going to be horrible.

[CosmicCowboy]

Latest Statement from Galveston National weather Service:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

[CosmicCowboy]

DANG! NOAA just released a storm surge map for IKE. Check it out. Based on current projections they are calling for a TWENTY SEVEN FOOT SURGE in the back of Galveston Bay and 18-21 at Galveston!