Hollinger's Team Forecast: San Antonio Spurs

[anakha]

Right on the money although I see this elderly team win 45 games and seeded 7th or 8th at best.

You Suck and you know it!

What, no WNBA smack, Louis? Go back to the other thread.

[barbacoataco]

Roger Mason will have to step up with Ginobili out. But Parker will really have to play like the superstar he is capable of for the Spurs to hold on.
I do think the Spurs have an odd roster right now, with too many point guard options and small guards. They got burned to eternity by West last season, and the only new player who could possibly help is Mahinmi. Maybe they are looking to trade Bonner and either stoudamire, hill or vaughn for a defensive specialist long 3. Who that would be I have no idea.

Also, the Spurs have exactly one player with any kind of post up game. After Duncan there is no one. A big coming off the bench who had at least some kind of post game would help the 2nd team offense from going stagnant and settling for contested jump shots. I know those players aren't a dime a dozen, but there has to be someone available. Is there any chance Mahinmi could be this guy>

[Sean Cagney]

Right on the money although I see this elderly team win 45 games and seeded 7th or 8th at best.

You Suck and you know it!

Your team is really young

[Manufan909]

A slight one. For now we can only hope. Anyone seriously follow him while he was in the D-League?

[tlongII]

The Spurs should win 50-52 games imo. To me Hollinger's best point was about the Spurs' getting worse as the season progressed last year. That's the opposite of the team's performance over the prior several seasons. Not a good sign with their aging roster...

[lurker23]

All-in-all a decent article, especially for Hollinger. However, he seems to be one of those guys who repeat things that he has been wrong about in the past, and then when he is eventually right, he does that, "See, I toldya so!" thing.

2007-08 All-Decline Team: Who's taking a step back?

Manu Ginobili, Spurs (last season 24.18, projected 21.7)
Don't take this too far -- the guy is still an All-Star caliber performer who remains one of the league's most underrated players because the restrictions on his minutes hurt his per-game averages (believe it or not, he had the league's ninth-best PER last season).

But Manu was so good last season that it would be very difficult for him to repeat it -- he put up his best numbers since coming to the NBA in pretty much every category. As a 30-year-old slasher, we'd expect his numbers to go down anyway, and I think it's a relatively safe bet that he won't finish in the top 10 in PER this season despite his strong start so far.

Result: Manu had the best year of his career thus far, posting a PER of 24.34, good for 7th best in the league.

In particular, the age of the wing players has to be a concern. San Antonio's top four wing players are 31 and older, and while they've taken exceptional care of their bodies, history tells us that the only direction they can surprise us in is down.

Except for the history of oh-so-long ago (a.k.a. last year), when Manu surprised you in an up direction. I'm not guaranteeing that he'll do it again this year (though I do personally think he'll do quite well after returning from injury), but why would anyone repeat something that they were proved wrong on less than 12 months ago?

[lurker23]

The Popovich-Duncan tandem has produced at least 56 wins for eight straight seasons, an incredible accomplishment, but it seems highly unlikely to run that string to nine.

I've been thinking that the Spurs will have a season with 51 to 54 wins, especially with Ginobili missing a substantial part of the season, and at least one other relatively major injury basically guaranteed at some point. However, just to spite Hollinger, I'll put myself out on a limb and predict a final record of 56-26.

[mathbzh]

, but why would anyone repeat something that they were proved wrong on less than 12 months ago?

Because someday it will be true

[mountainballer]

I agree with Hollinger that the gap between West and East won't be that ridiculous huge.
so, unlike last season, 45 or 46 wins should be enough to make the POs.
however, even if a less than 50 wins prediction looks poor and far off, we can't ignore the facts Spurs already have to deal with.
Spurs fans claimed how much power a not healthy Manu took from the team, so no Manu at all will take even more. and we know that Manu will be his old self maybe at the all star break, even if he's back mid December.
so a 20-20 start of the season isn't impossible and even with a strong 2nd regular season half, Spurs will struggle to make the 50 wins.
(however, I would predict this 50 wins)
I can't see Mason as the x-factor. the major point will be, that he's able to replace Barry's (underrated) production and we should be happy if he does so. if he's slightly better (10PPG on good shooting %) plus playing better defense, we can call it a great success story, but even this won't be enough avoid a drop during Manu's absence.
another point of concern will be the huge quality gap between Tim and all the other bigs we have, which be bigger than last season IMO.
so the crucial point to save next season will be a trade deadline deal for a quality big, who takes the #2 spot in the big rotation. Spurs don't have great assets, but considering that at deadline also Mason and KT could be included in a package, there are some more scenarios possible, to get a deal done. (maybe Haslem is available then, because of a lack of minutes at PF and we also know that Miami was very interested in KT this summer)

[1Parker1]

Dror (Israel): Never mind the regular season, do you see Utah coming out of the west in the playoffs? Which Boozer will we see this year?

John Hollinger: I think the West is a three-way toss-up at the top between LA, Utah and Houston; I gave a slight edge to the Jazz but it's basically those three at the top, with New Orleans lurking and San Antonio potentially making noise from a low seed.

He also says Spurs may not make it out the first round and that he sees one of the traditional powerhouses, ie Dallas, Pheonix, and SA unraveling really badly this season. Doesn't know which yet.

[DPG21920]

Hey when you sweep so broadly you are bound to get something right! If you don't, then you look extra stupid. I can see the Spurs winning between 47 and 53 games. I think if they struggle early, then 47, if they gel fast, 53.

[FromWayDowntown]

He also says Spurs may not make it out the first round and that he sees one of the traditional powerhouses, ie Dallas, Pheonix, and SA unraveling really badly this season. Doesn't know which yet.

Last spring, Hollinger also suggested that the Suns could be the first team to come back from down 0-3 to a win a series.

And at this juncture last year, Hollinger had the Rockets winning the most games in basketball (61) and being the favorite to win the West.

[tav1]

I wonder if Pop will start Udoka over Bowen, at least early.

I can see a Parker, RMJR, Udoka, Duncan, --- starting line up.

When Gino comes back, he'll still bring the juice off the bench. The question for me is can the Spurs get any scoring out of Parker's sub? Roger Mason is a big help, but without that long wing the back up point's ppg is crucial to prevent offensive slumps. The Spurs acknowledged as much with their intense interest in point guards this off season.

[benefactor]

Utah has the edge of New Orleans and the Lakers?

[Manufan909]

Utah is still 5th best. They're not even better than a Manu-less Spurs(not with the additions they've made this year).

[1Parker1]

Last spring, Hollinger also suggested that the Suns could be the first team to come back from down 0-3 to a win a series.

And at this juncture last year, Hollinger had the Rockets winning the most games in basketball (61) and being the favorite to win the West.

True, but his analysis never even makes sense. For example, he has Utah coming out of the West, being the best team in the league. Yet, Utah didn't make any major offseason moves and couldn't even beat the Lakers last season, without Bynum. Moreover, he has CP3 winning the MVP, but if he thinks the Jazz will have the best record in the West, wouldn't you have to put Deron Williams logically ahead by that thought process of CP3 for the MVP award?

And his biggest gripe against the Spurs is age, when Boston last season was an old team as well and Miami 2 years ago. More so, he claims injuries may hurt the Spurs, specifically Manu's, but then he doesn't account for Houston's injury prone stars, of which McGrady already claimed to have arthritis and pain? Yet, Houston can end up in the top 3, but Spurs projected to win less the 50 games and end up a 6th seed??


Logic does not seem to be Hollinger's strong point. That more so than his DA calculations is what annoys me the most.

[nfg3]

This offseason the FO has obviously tried to address the offensive slump that the Spurs went through in the second half of the season. Failing in getting Maggette they landed Mason. I agree with those who think he will be a key player this season. Not savior but player. Whether he comes through or not is the question. As a diehard Spurs fan I hope he does but as of late our acquisations haven't been all that steller, which I believe is more a mind set of the current players than the FO's inability to lure players here. I wanted Maggette but who in their right mind is going to turn down that kind of contract the Warriors gave him? And considering the 2010 plan what $$ were really available over the last couple of years to attract the higher qualilty players?

[Buddy Holly]

Am I the only one who finds it funny when people play the "age" card with the Spurs?



They're overall much younger in team age than a year ago, but aside from that, the only players of great age are Bowen, Finley and Thomas. Two of those three are starters who won't get the same minutes they did last year and the third is probably now the back up to the back up (when Manu returns).

That "Spurs are old" crap is, well, old.

[MoSpur]

I'm okay with this prediction. As long as the Spurs are healthy going into the playoffs.

[michaelwcho]

You guys are seriously underestimating Utah. All the media talked about was the disparity in their home and away record, so that's what the average fan repeats. But, under the radar, they improved tremendously and advanced stats bear that out. Wages of Wins had them as the 3rd best team last year, I think.

Deron is all-world, Boozer is excellent, their young players are promising, and the rest of the roster is above-average. They will be in the equation this year, barring some sort of crazy injury.

[bigfan]

Hey, the team being underestimated is the Spurs. Everyone is saying "oh, they are good and will make the playoffs but..." This is a good thing. Let everyone think we are old, injured or whatever. We've got the best coach, the one of the best all-round big men ever, a great point guard and a team that knows each other and plays tight. Add to that a couple of new young guys and I think we just might kick some serious azz come the playoffs. Its early yet. I cant wait for the season.

[Obstructed_View]

I'm okay with this prediction. As long as the Spurs are healthy going into the playoffs.

I'm okay with any prediction that doesn't have the Spurs at the top. They always do better when they aren't reading about how great they are.