How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[clambake]

Man, McCain's list of States is like reading the inbred portion of this nation's geneology.

pro-american

It has nothing to do with red/blue. But cmon...

blue is anti-american. keep up DR.

[Cry Havoc]

If any state has been hit hard by the economy it's Ohio. You would think Obama's economic message would gain some footing there of all places but he hasn't managed to break through. I say let them rot in their ignorance.

This is why Obama's 50 state campaign is paying off now. He doesn't need Ohio. He has so many paths to 270 he can pick and choose where to spend his incredible war chest in the final weeks.

Remember Obama still has a firewall in the Southwest. NM and CO will go blue due to the incredible 70% Hispanic vote that Obama receives. This is all Obama needs to win the Presidency, this is why McCain is staying in PA. He needs to pick off a Kerry state like PA to have a chance in this election.

The reason Ohio is still up for grabs is because the economy is so bad there that people are scared. Frightened people respond drastically to messages of fear and doom, which has been the cornerstone of the McCain campaign to this point. It's working because Obama represents something unexpected in the cultural or ideological sense. I don't think he'll be that drastically different from most other presidents we've had, but let's face it, he's black, and he's broadcasting a completely different at ude than the GOP. To Ohioans, that's an unknown element, and they are afraid to gamble at this point.

And not to be overconfident but it really does feel like a two-possession game in the 4th quarter of a football game. That said...

I think RISK is a very adequate comparison here, especially the way the armies shake up. Right now Obama has a lot of land and he's got more power to lock down continents, but he's got to continually pound the weak spots to ensure that he's going to win. Otherwise, McCain can fortify and start encroaching into his territory. A little momentum can go a long way here, so as long as Obama keeps McCain from really gathering steam, it should be a win for him.

[florige]

Man these polls are really all over the place today....
I expect to see alot of shifting between now and election day.

[MannyIsGod]

I want to post a few of the pictures I took this weekend with some background on what is going on there.




On Friday there was a rally where Richardson and Biden spoke. Biden made CNN from this rally because of the way he slammed Palin's "Pro America" comments. Anyway, didn't get in because we had waaaaaaaaaay more people than they were expecting (no idea of the actual figures though, sorry) so me and some other volunteers listend from outside. When Biden came out he pointed to us and thanked us. It was a pretty cool moment.



At the end of the rally things got heated between a group of Abortion/GOP protestors and many of the Obama supporters. The police stood inbetween just to make sure nothing went over the line. The abortion protestors were fairly disgusting to me considering they were using 5-8 year old children to hold up giant posters of aborted fetuses.



When canvassing a pretty rural neighborhood that was mostly hispanic I met Mic e who invited me in and showed me her "miniHQ" where she kept lots of information and do entation on Democratic campaigns that she used to talk to her neighbors.



Mural outside of the Las Cruces campaign HQ. Pretty awesome, IMO.



Our group and our bus.



Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

[lurker23]

Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

That beard looks much better than the one he was sporting during the tail-end of the Obama/Clinton primaries. I thought he would have been a good choice for the Democratic VP candidate, but I knew he would seriously have to trim down the beard to do so; this would have been acceptable.

Thanks for posting the pictures, Manny.

[timvp]

Cool pix. What areas of NM you hit up?

[MannyIsGod]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

[PixelPusher]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

I used to live in Alamogordo when I was a kid. btw, you look like you could be Bill Richardson's son in that pic.

[timvp]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Cool.

From traveling around New Mexico, it's interesting to see how radically it shifts from ultra blue to ultra red. I bet if you went to places like Sante Fe and Taos that you couldn't even find a McCain supporter

Las Cruces, IRRC, is usually pretty split. Alamogordo is pretty red. You guys didn't hit up the Roswell area? That is ultra red country.

But yeah, if Las Cruces goes 60/40 Obama, that will be enough to win the state most likely.

[Tully365]

Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

Great pics. I'm sure your great-great-grandchildren will love those pics someday.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats a pretty astute analysis of the breakdown. Alamogordo was pretty rough territory for the people that went there. Typically the campaign at this point is aimed more at making sure people who are supporting Obama are urged to vote. Its Get Out The Vote time and you're not going to get as much done if you spend time in places were the GOP dominates. Las Cruces was split, but I do think the Dems have the advantadge there and they are likely going to sweep the congressional race there, the senate race, and go blue for Obama. Its a really crucial county to have, and if Obama hasn't won VA or NC by the time NM polls close then its going to be a very interesting location to watch as it could be a very good prognosticator of who will take the election.

[MannyIsGod]

back to the polls...



I like this breakdown by Nate Silver:

The central point is this: if McCain has gained ground -- and most likely he has -- then what he's done is reset the race to roughly where it was two weeks ago, when Obama also had roughly a 6-point national lead. Except, the two positions aren't entirely equal, since two weeks have run off McCain's clock. Roughly speaking -- and accounting for his inferior position in the electoral college -- McCain needs to gain about half a point per day every day between now and November 4 to become a favorite in the electoral college. That is not an easy task; from the nadir of Obama's numbers, which we put at 9/12, to his peak, which we put at 10/11, Obama was gaining about a quarter of a point per day on average. That is, by the standards of a presidential campaign, very rapid movement. But McCain needs to get those numbers down about twice as quickly as Obama got them up, and he does not have any debates or other major public events to assist him.

I'm glad in a way these polls are tightening. I don't want Obama supporters to sit on their ass but to get out there and close the deal.

[PixelPusher]

just curious, is there an Obama "ground game" in Oklahoma?

[MannyIsGod]

Good question. let me find out. I think there is a ground game in every single state right now for Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

He's got an office in Tulsa. Its probably the same type of deal as the San Antonio office with an effort to get volunteers into MO, NM, and CO and a phone banking center but not nearly the size of a main office in a battleground state.

[PixelPusher]

He's got an office in Tulsa. Its probably the same type of deal as the San Antonio office with an effort to get volunteers into MO, NM, and CO and a phone banking center but not nearly the size of a main office in a battleground state.

I was curious, because I've seen polls that have McCain at +30 in Oklahoma.

[TheMadHatter]

It'll be funny to see GA go blue before TX. Man you guys have got to get your state in order, seriously you are the last major metropolitan state to be so overwhelmingly R.

[Mr. Peabody]

CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has written off Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. Now McCain's only path to victory is to win EVERY swing state and flip Pennsylvania to a red state. Interesting.

[Bartleby]

I guess given McCain's limited resources he doesn't have many options at this point. The problem with consolidating his efforts on those few big states is that Obama has enough money in his war chest to defend his lead in Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa and, at the same time, keep the big battleground states very compe ive.

[Mr. Peabody]

How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?

Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0

It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .

Obama's Lead? Republicans are touting this WSJ headline this morning: "Obama Takes in a Record $150 Million, But McCain Narrows Gap in Some Polls." The story points out that Obama's lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average was down to 5.3 points over the weekend, after being as high as 8 last week.

▲ Obama's Lead. The RCP stat may seem to show the race tightening, but it probably isn't; measuring last week's number next to today's is an apples-to-oranges comparison. The average last week included some surveys (like the NYT, WashPost and LAT polls) showing Obama with leads of 9 or more points. Because RCP uses a rolling average, those polls have now dropped out, and as of now the average only includes the major tracking polls, which show a closer race. But Obama's lead has actually grown in those tracking polls from where they were last week.

[boutons_]

McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado
Posted: 06:40 PM ET

From CNN Chief National Correspondent John King
Some McCain insiders believe Colorado is out of reach.





(CNN) — The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican for president in 20 years.


While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.


"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.
This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."




http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...hout-colorado/

[Mr. Peabody]

Did someone say the race is tightening?

Poll: Obama Gained During Debates
CBS News/N.Y. Times Follow-Up Survey Of Likely Voters Suggests Democrat's Advantage Grew

The standing of the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden improved during the last few weeks of the presidential campaign, a period that included the three presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

In a poll taken just before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket held a five point edge, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Democratic ticket and 43 percent supporting the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Those 476 likely voters were re-interviewed for the new poll, and their responses suggest that the Democratic ticket has made gains since the initial survey: The Obama-Biden ticket now holds a 13-point edge, 54 percent to 41 percent, among the group.

Nearly all of the voters who supported Obama in the initial poll in September - 98 percent - still do. The Republican ticket has retained 88 percent of its support. Among formerly undecided voters, fifty-two percent now say they favor Obama, while 36 percent support McCain. Twelve percent remain undecided.

Independents now support the Democratic ticket 50 percent to 43 percent. In September, this group backed the Mccain-Palin ticket, 46 percent to 40 percent. Self-described moderates, meanwhile, overwhelmingly favor the Obama-Biden ticket, breaking for the Democrats 66 percent to 30 percent.

Did CBS News or the New York Times remember to multiply McCain's numbers by 10 and divide Obama's numbers by 3.1415962?

[MannyIsGod]

CNN reports that top officials of Sen. John McCain's campaign are "making tough decisions" as they now see Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa no longer winnable.

Instead, the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.

The McCain campaign responds: "We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling. We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20..._colorado.html

Interesting that he's putting all of his eggs in the I'm going to make a miracle comeback in PA basket.

[RandomGuy]

Did someone say the race is tightening?



Did CBS News or the New York Times remember to multiply McCain's numbers by 10 and divide Obama's numbers by 3.1415962?

[JoeChalupa]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

Toledo, OH!! I used to to go there all the time. I grew up just 45 minutes away. Thanks for posting the pics. Barack On!!!!