Why I think the Republican party is doomed.

[ploto]

The issue for the Republicans is which way they choose to go if defeated. If indeed Palin is the face of the party heading into the future, I think they will be out of power for a longer time. If they choose to focus their efforts on white, affluent, rural people then they will not succeed.

What really has happened is that the party mixed up political ideologies with moral ideologies. To be politically conservative is not the same thing at all as being morally conservative. A political conservative believes in smaller government, controlled spending, and the government keeping its hands off. They believe that the federal government should not be telling the states, companies, or people what to do. Ironically, a true political conservative would never support a Cons utional amendment banning gay marriage. They would have a problem with the federal government telling a state what it can and can not do with its marriage laws. Actually, a true political conservative would probably be pro-choice because he or she would say it is none of the government's business to control people's decision. But, the political conservatives courted the moral conservatives and declared themselves the self-appointed party of morality. In that process all the principles of political conservatism got messed up in the attempt to stand for conservative, family values.

[DaDakota]

Heck yes it is important, I was in the Young Republicans...and am fiscally conservative by nature.....

But the Evangelical - walking with Dinos and speaking in tongues - taking over the Republican party has pushed me as far away from that intellectual nightmare so fast it would make your headspin.

I think the Republican party has been taken over by the Christian version of the Taliban, and until the moderates take it back and put those morons back in their place....I will not be voting for them.

DD

[byrontx]

I am somewhat with ballijuana on this. The wacko evangelicals being co-opted by neocons have totally screwed up the true conservative movement of less government. The religious right is quite willing to impose as much government as they can on you if it keeps you on the straight and narrow. The neocons are the first to toss the cons ution in the name of security. True conservatives have had their movement hijacked by ranting talk radio types and Murdock media. I do not know if they will ever regain control of the Republican party.

[DaDakota]

I am somewhat with ballijuana on this. The wacko evangelicals being co-opted by neocons have totally screwed up the true conservative movement of less government. The religious right is quite willing to impose as much government as they can on you if it keeps you on the straight and narrow. The neocons are the first to toss the cons ution in the name of security. True conservatives have had their movement hijacked by ranting talk radio types and Murdock media. I do not know if they will ever regain control of the Republican party.

If not that party will never be in control, most people are not dumb enough to follow that line of thinking.

As much as I like Joel Osteen, I don't want him running my country.

DD

[RandomGuy]

Eh, it's cyclical. That's part of the reason why I'm voting for Obama. The right needs to crash and burn and reinvent themselves. And really, there's nothing wrong with that. Political parties reinventing themselves is a cycle.

I find it a bit humorous when those on the left tend to think that we are headed into an era where the Democrats will rule the nation for generations as the Republicans die a slow and painful death. By 2012 or 2016, the right will have regained their footing and the left will be in their own crisis.

'Tis just the way things work in the political world.

I must confess to a sin: A small exaggeration in the le of the thread.

I don't really think the GOP is forever doomed, but I do think that it will take them a bit longer 2016 to get their act together, for a few factors.

First, there is the much vaunted shift in demographics that will start slowly creeping in around the edges. Perhaps they will reinvent themselves and figure out how not to alienate the hispanic/black vote, but I don't see even a glimmer of how this might be accomplished yet.

Second, I strongly suspect that Obama will end up being a pretty competent president. If this is the case, then he will end up with coattails that will tend to preserve Democratic gains.

Third, Republicans are conservatives. This makes them far less able to just recollect themselves, modify a position here or there, and restate their case.

I do agree that there are cycles in American politics. The pendulum swings one way for a while, then another for a while.

The "Republican revolution" started in about 1996 or so, and ended about 10 years later when they lost control of the house in 2006. It is about to come to a crashing end.

If the current swing lasts for a similar period of time that means it will be about 2018 or so before the Dems will have been in power long enough for the Republicans to finally get their act together. The kicker, though is that demographic shift. In another ten years, the faster Democratic demographic will make it much harder for them.

One complicating factor in this analysis, the X factor, will be what I see as a very probable splintering of the Hispanic vote. It will not be so monolithically Democratic in the future simply due to its growing size, among other reasons.

If the Dems are smart and start cultivating a round of Hispanic leaders in the party, like Richardson, and front one of them in 2016, that splintering won't be as much of a factor. This would mean the Dems will hold on to the White House for 12, if not 16 more years.

[RandomGuy]

I do smell something new in the air though. I truly think that sometime within the next 20 years, we may actually see a viable third party, or even a fourth.

If the radical right keeps alienating right-leaning moderates, they will start shifting to the Democratic side.

This will drag the Dems farther to the right/center, causing the uber-lefties to really stop identifying with the party, and I see a small bit of this happening now.

That would end up with the Republicans being the really right party, the Democrats in the center, and something new on the left, perhaps a green/socialist alliance of some sort along the lines of what ruled germany for a few years.

I see this as a distinct possibility, although not a probability at this point.

[JoeChalupa]

Well republicans...IS SARAH PALIN THE NEW FACE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

[101A]

Your party came in, in 2000, with a peaceful ..world

Ignorant and partisan.

The World WAS NOT peaceful; they just hadn't fired their shot yet.

Jesus Christ you people are Spurs fans in your daily lives, too!!!

Pop's the greatest!! One day: Fire Pop! the next - depending on the score of the last game.

You think because polls are showing a, what, around 5 - 10% lead for Barrack Obama, and many in that poll suggesting they COULD STILL change their vote, that the Republicans are doomed, and an era of Kumbay peacefull, every man for his fellow man ing Utopia is to follow???

Six years ago the Democrats had control of NOTHING; and they got two houses of Congress back in '06 by running against an unpopular war. That war now? Not hardly discussed - because the economy has turned. Reagan inherited a recession from Carter - and 12 years later, Bush 1 was coming out of a recession, and passed the ball to Clinton, who handed Bush 2 a ing recession - 8 years after we came out of one at the end of Bush 1's term, and now, 8 ing years later...guess what - another recession - SAY IT ISN'T So!!! It's all the Republican's fault!!!! Bull . Each 2 term president is either going to have a recession coming in, or going out of office, or both, it's a ing cycle. The party in power gets blamed, radicals get elected, and nothing happens because all it takes is 40 Senators to stop damn near anything. NOW the Democrats can possibly REALLY things up!!!! They might have REAL control; and if ANYONE thinks Nancy Pelosi is LESS radical than Dennis ing Hastert????? then they simply are in complete left-wing denial. The Dems will pass some kind of new ing en lement that WON"T solve the problem it's supposed to, they'll Demagogue the issue - then we'll go back into recession, they'll be domonized, Republicans will win the White House in '16 - but we'll be stuck with another pig of a program, growing out of control that cannot be stopped, ever, by anyone - oh, and one that creates more and more people dependent on Democrats for their existence; ie. cons uents.

The recessions? They aren't caused by either party directly; they just are; whoever is in "power" simply gets the blame.

[JoeChalupa]

I guess no republican wants Sarah as the new face of their party? Where is all the enthusiasm at?

Whottt!?!?

[RandomGuy]

and if ANYONE thinks Nancy Pelosi is LESS radical than Dennis ing Hastert????? then they simply are in complete left-wing denial.

That is what worries me as a Democrat.

If Pelosi could show some restraint and play towards the middle a bit, so that she is not so easily reviled, and doesn't make the same mistakes that Hastert did in terms of going ideologically overboard, that would be great.

As it is... (sighs)

Republicans have made some pretty obvious mistakes in the last 8 years. The real danger for the Dems is if they make the same mistakes.

Come close to balancing the budget, even if it entails slightly higher taxes, and you will get to claim the "fiscally responsible" mantle from the "borrow and spenders".

Heh, if you had told someone in 1999 that the "tax and spend" Democrats would be seen as more fiscally responsible than the Republicans in 8 years, you would have seen a lot of people do this:

I think the next 8-12 years will be the most interesting of my life, aside from the fact that my first son will be old enough to drive in that time frame... EEK.

[JoeChalupa]

Yeah, I don't like Pelosi as she is way too partisan.

[RandomGuy]

I guess no republican wants Sarah as the new face of their party? Where is all the enthusiasm at?

Whottt!?!?

Given another 4 years of intense briefings, she might actually know something about foreign/domestic policy beyond vitriolic rhetoric that demonizes Democrats.

Of course, all the Democrats have to do is show her repeatedly nasty comments over and over in loops in any election she runs in the future.

While it might give some in the GOP a stiffy, it has really hurt them with independents, and REALLY REALLY motivates Democrats to go out and vote.

[DaDakota]

I hate Pelosi.....she is part of the problem...not the solution.

DD

[TheMadHatter]

Great arguments all around guys.

Obviously the GOP will have to become more inclusive if they want a shot at seeing power again. The minority population is going to be a significant voting block and right now the Democrats have a monopoly over them. The Southwest will no longer be Republican strongholds if this continues, we are already seeing NM/CO/NV shifting blue as the demographics of those states change. In other words, the Southern Strategy may have seen its last days.

The best thing for this country would be if a viable 3rd party rose from the ashes. I would accept a party that was fiscally conservative and moderate on social issues (i.e. dont' rock the boat on abortion, gay rights, etc.) over the current Democratic platform.

[TheMadHatter]

Agreed on Pelosi that woman needs to step down.

The Democrats in Congress are exacting their revenge on Republicans after 8 years of submission. It's petty and childish.

[RandomGuy]

Agreed on Pelosi that woman needs to step down.

The Democrats in Congress are exacting their revenge on Republicans after 8 years of submission. It's petty and childish.

Actually the GOP held conress for 10 years, not 8.

They were kinda nasty because the Dems had not been kind to them much before, and the nasty downward spiral of for tat continuing is self-defeating for the Dems.

[KenMcCoy]

One complicating factor in this analysis, the X factor, will be what I see as a very probable splintering of the Hispanic vote. It will not be so monolithically Democratic in the future simply due to its growing size, among other reasons.

I see this happening with my fiance's family (hispanic)...

Parents - I guess you could call them lower middle class. Not poor, not well off, just honest working people. Faithful Democrats.

Oldest Brother - The most skilled carpenter/builder I have ever seen. If he stopped partying everytime he got a paycheck and actually applied himself he could be making at least the magical $250K a year. Democrat.

Second Brother - HS graduate/no college. Worked hard and went from being a delivery driver for the company he works for to being the regional distribution manager. Makes a good 6 figures. Republican.

My Fiance - Got good grades in HS and received several college scholarships. No financial help from her parents for college tuition. Voted Democrat when we met while she was in college and has converted to Republican since she began her career(we don't talk politics at home very much so while I may have swayed her a little, I think a lot of it was self realization).

I know this is a small sample size, but I think that it is somewhat representative of most of the hispanic families I have met throughout my life. The children of Hispanic Democrats who are fairly successful in life tend to be more conservative than their parents or siblings who are less succesful. Or at least that is my observation.

[DarkReign]

YOUR PARTY will just provide the motivation.

This is just a normal cycle of America. Nothing new.

Man, I hope youre right.

[ploto]

II know this is a small sample size, but I think that it is somewhat representative of most of the hispanic families I have met throughout my life. The children of Hispanic Democrats who are fairly successful in life tend to be more conservative than their parents or siblings who are less succesful. Or at least that is my observation.

Many people vote with their pocketbook-- as they make more money, they become more Republican. Then when they get old and need Medicare and Social Security, they suddenly become more Democratic.

[timvp]

The reports of the Republican Party's death are greatly exaggerated.

Consider that the in bent Republican President has some of the lowest approval ratings of all-time. The economy is in crisis. The current war is not only unpopular, it has virtually been proven to have been unnecessary. Numerous events under the current Republican President have alienated almost every type of minority group in existence in the country -- from blacks to gays to atheists. The Democrats, on the other hand, are as motivated as they have been in the history of the country -- to the point where a lot of their partisan followers are literally foaming at the mouth. The current economic, social, environmental and scientific climates fit perfectly with the Democratic platforms. Republicans right now have literally no leg to stand on when going against a Democrat.

All that said, this race is relatively close. Obama is going to win but it's not going to be anything like Reagan 80 type landslide. In fact, that McCain is even mathematically alive at this point is a minor miracle. With almost a perfect storm set up for the Democrats, Obama is expected to carry no more than 54% of the vote. How is this a great or even good sign for the Democrats? The Republicans in a perfect storm environment would still be able to get more than 54% of the vote.

Now obviously, the growing Hispanic vote helps the Democrats down the line but we can't assume that they are going to be staunch Democrat backers forever. Even from 2000 to 2004, there was a relatively large Hispanic swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. Throughout the years, you can see a definite trend with Hispanic voters heading to the Republican side. Now this election, obviously, we aren't going to see that trend continue but this election is pretty unique so I don't think it'll be a good indicator of what is to come.

The cycle I see happening is a cycle we have seen before. When the financial crisis has been overcome, we should see a rise in the per capita income. Once the economy is flourishing again, the Republicans can come back on the scene offering smaller government, lower taxes and a "return of family values" or some other effective wedge issue. Combine that with the country's insatiable yearning for "change" and I fully expect the Republicans to be back in power in 2016. (Perhaps it could be 2012 but for the sake of the USA, I'm hoping Obama is a great success and not a one term flameout.)

The Republicans could F things up for themselves though if they choose the wrong path. If they don't go back to their conservative roots and instead remain this clusterfvck of seemingly random and self-satisfying ideals, the party very well could be doomed. But I view that as unlikely due not only to the cyclical principals at work but also the nationwide backlash.

[JoeChalupa]

The republican party will never die nor will the democratic party. They all have their ups and downs.

[DarkReign]

The republican party will never die nor will the democratic party. They all have their ups and downs.

You are the worst fence-walker I have ever read.

[JoeChalupa]

You are the worst fence-walker I have ever read.

I call it as I see it. Thanks.

[DarkReign]

I call it as I see it. Thanks.

I should have added a humorous tone to the statement, because I didnt mean any offense (and I thought youd get it).

But you do ride the fence in an extraordinary fashion. You avoid conflict, IMO (at least on this forum, I do not speak for your real life). Thats good and bad, just like anyone else.

[JoeChalupa]

I should have added a humorous tone to the statement, because I didnt mean any offense (and I thought youd get it).

But you do ride the fence in an extraordinary fashion. You avoid conflict, IMO (at least on this forum, I do not speak for your real life). Thats good and bad, just like anyone else.

I got it. I just know that neither party or candidate is perfect by any means and yeah, I do try to avoid conflict and be fair and balanced on that fence.