Stein: Can The Spurs Beat L.A. In A Seven-Game Series?

[mytespurs]

I don't know why "experts," keep saying LA is the clear favorite in the west - they are not. No one knows how they fair against a healthy SA, and until they can prove they beat a healthy Spurs team I'm going to suspend judgment.

It would have been a different series last year had the Spurs had probably their second best scorer playing healthy in situations where they were desperate for ppoints down the stretch. Game one is a perfect example of this. Spurs win game one AND get the bull no call on Barry and that series is 3-1.

Why everbody is conceding that LA is basically unbeatable is beyond me when they beat the Spurs with one their best players at 50% and got a bull call which should have been foul.

Add that the Spurs replaced reserves Vaughn and Horry with Hill/Gooden/Bonner.

LA needs to beat the Spurs w/ a healthy Manu to prove they are better than them.

As far as I can tell, they are only better than a Spurs team with a 50% Manu, which isn't all that impressive.

While I agree they are not unbeateable (no team is), they did win the big games at home & on the road: twice against Boston, twice against Cleveland and they defeated the Spurs in their own building coming off a back to back. They are 53-13; tied with the Cavs with the best record in the league (but win the tiebreaker advantage). Those are the facts. So it is understandable why they are the favorites to win the NBA championship this year.

And I will also agree that the Spurs aren't as formidable with with Manu less than healthy most of the season-that is also fact.

But a healthy Spurs team vs. Lakers at this point-I'd have to take the latter.....I hope the Spurs prove me wrong!

[der Kaiser]

I don't know why "experts," keep saying LA is the clear favorite in the west - they are not. No one knows how they fair against a healthy SA, and until they can prove they beat a healthy Spurs team I'm going to suspend judgment.

It would have been a different series last year had the Spurs had probably their second best scorer playing healthy in situations where they were desperate for ppoints down the stretch. Game one is a perfect example of this. Spurs win game one AND get the bull no call on Barry and that series is 3-1.

Why everbody is conceding that LA is basically unbeatable is beyond me when they beat the Spurs with one their best players at 50% and got a bull call which should have been foul.
Add that the Spurs replaced reserves Vaughn and Horry with Hill/Gooden/Bonner.

LA needs to beat the Spurs w/ a healthy Manu to prove they are better than them.

As far as I can tell, they are only better than a Spurs team with a 50% Manu, which isn't all that impressive.

He traveled before the foul and we were missing our shot blocking big man. At least 50% of your guy was there.

For those who think the Bowen is the difference than you must be on crack. Parker, Duncan and Ginobili are the Spurs bread and butter and they have to play balls out to win a Laker series. San Antonio is way to undemanned talent wise to have Duncan be played to a draw by Gasol. Or to have Parker be taken out by Phil. Without a doubt an unhealthy Ginobili would be disastrous.

The Spurs can compete and beat the Lakers if and only if the Spurs big three play like mad men.

[ulosturedge]

I'll reserve my final judgement for when the regular season ends. But as it stands now the Lakers are clearly the better team. Hopefully a healthy Manu and a more polished Gooden can help tip the scales back in our favor. We will see..

[024]

everything depends on tim duncan. if he shows that he's not afraid of the lakers and establishes a dominating post presence, then everyone else on the spurs will follow suit. i'm beginning to think playing the lakers is becoming a mental challenge for the spurs because they either blow huge leads or get blown out. all starts at tim duncan. he needs to dominate again and not shoot 42% against the lakers. in fact, i think duncan's 44.9% FG last year was his worst playoff performance ever.

[Rapper]

absolutely

[sammy]

1. Dallas didn't play well against GS all year - and that's who knocked them out.

2. Dallas ain't LA. From coach, to tradition, to star player. No way LA makes those same mistakes.

Portland seems to have the Lakers number so I wouldn't be surprised by an upset if they meet in the first round! This should be a cause for concern for the Lakers! Shades of Dallas/GS first round knockout!

[VI_Massive]

Portland seems to have the Lakers number so I wouldn't be surprised by an upset if they meet in the first round! This should be a cause for concern for the Lakers! Shades of Dallas/GS first round knockout!

Portland has everyone's number at home. I think they could maybe push LA to seven games, but unless they pull a miracle victory in LA, they would get beat.

[xtremesteven33]

everything depends on tim duncan. if he shows that he's not afraid of the lakers and establishes a dominating post presence, then everyone else on the spurs will follow suit. i'm beginning to think playing the lakers is becoming a mental challenge for the spurs because they either blow huge leads or get blown out.

Good points.

Im not one to say that mental hurddles hinder the Spurs but it does look as though they have those mental hurrdles when facing the Lakers.

Thers alot of battles scars with both teams. Thats why when you see them face each other you see the battle faces on Kobe and Derek every Spurs/Lakers game. Same goes with Tim,Tony,Bruce and Manu.

2002,2004 and 2008 are hard battles to forget for the Spurs. And it seems that Kobe and PJ are on thier best for every Spurs/Lakers game.

[TheManFromAcme]

I'am positive I am in the minority here but with a healthy Manu (Key here being HEALTHY), this thing is a 50/50 shot. Question for Spurs fan here: How was Manu's health during the second meeting of the season (1/25/09). If Manu was already having issues with his leg/ankle/shin did we really defeat the Spurs at their best? I am still not that comfortable with these wins without a fully healthy Manu. Just an analysis and probing.

Of course I give the edge to the Lakers but somehow, someway, It bothers me. How will a Gooden, Manu, Parker, Duncan, Bonner.Oberto line-up really do at full, I mean full, 100% strength? I think the west is really under-estimating not only the Spurs but the Nuggets, blazers and hornets. Funnier things have happened.

[VI_Massive]

I'am positive I am in the minority here but with a healthy Manu (Key here being HEALTHY), this thing is a 50/50 shot. Question for Spurs fan here: How was Manu's health during the second meeting of the season (1/25/09). If Manu was already having issues with his leg/ankle/shin did we really defeat the Spurs at their best? I am still not that comfortable with these wins without a fully healthy Manu. Just an analysis and probing.

Of course I give the edge to the Lakers but somehow, someway, It bothers me. How will a Gooden, Manu, Parker, Duncan, Bonner.Oberto line-up really do at full, I mean full, 100% strength? I think the west is really under-estimating not only the Spurs but the Nuggets, blazers and hornets. Funnier things have happened.

If we had a fully healthy rotation that had been playing together for several months, then I think it would be a complete crapshoot against LA. If everyone's healthy but hasn't played together much (which is the best we SA fans can hope for) I think we have a 40% chance of beating LA.

[4everSpurFan]

I agree. At this point, you have to go with the Lakers. The Spurs have experience and championship pedigree/heart but with the unknown status of Manu's health, TD's health problems, I don't think the Spurs have enough to beat the Lakers.

And you have to consider this: the Lakers & Spurs may not even meet in a WC Final.....the Spurs could be eliminated before that happens.
I hate to say this but while I'm a Spurs fan at heart, I'm a realist too.
I still love my Spurs though!! :thumb

nuff said!! I'm hoping for the best but we have to wait and let it play out.

[mingus]

He traveled before the foul and we were missing our shot blocking big man. At least 50% of your guy was there.

For those who think the Bowen is the difference than you must be on crack. Parker, Duncan and Ginobili are the Spurs bread and butter and they have to play balls out to win a Laker series. San Antonio is way to undemanned talent wise to have Duncan be played to a draw by Gasol. Or to have Parker be taken out by Phil. Without a doubt an unhealthy Ginobili would be disastrous.

The Spurs can compete and beat the Lakers if and only if the Spurs big three play like mad men.

I haven't looked at whether it was traveling or not, but so what if it was? There are a million travels per game in the NBA that go uncalled - and they're especially evident when you have the luxary of seeing it slow motion. Fishers fouls was bull , though, because like that is called all the time, even when there's MUCH less contact. Fisher fouled Barry more way obviously than he fouled Mason on his 3-point play earlier this season. What bothers me is that it's completely incomprehensible that that foul wasn't called. It's not incromprehensible that Barry's travel wasn't called since like that is so hard to see to the naked eye - hence the fact why people were bringing it up AFTER they got to see it in slow motion.

[mingus]

People can try and predict things all they want, but the fact of the matter is la hasn't faced a spurs team with the addition of gooden (who looked studly against houston, and will not doubt be of big help) once, or faced a spurs tema with a healthy Manu more than twice (and it's tied 1-1 in that case).

[mingus]

No team has the upperhand on a healthy Spurs team.

[easjer]

I'am positive I am in the minority here but with a healthy Manu (Key here being HEALTHY), this thing is a 50/50 shot. Question for Spurs fan here: How was Manu's health during the second meeting of the season (1/25/09). If Manu was already having issues with his leg/ankle/shin did we really defeat the Spurs at their best? I am still not that comfortable with these wins without a fully healthy Manu. Just an analysis and probing.

Of course I give the edge to the Lakers but somehow, someway, It bothers me. How will a Gooden, Manu, Parker, Duncan, Bonner.Oberto line-up really do at full, I mean full, 100% strength? I think the west is really under-estimating not only the Spurs but the Nuggets, blazers and hornets. Funnier things have happened.

I think this LA fan has a point (only I refuse to give LA any edge). I think nearly everyone expects an epic battle between the two - and they are the two best in the West - but I think with the right combination either could be unseated before the WCF.

I really think Portland could be a surprise and this feels like a good year for Denver.

Regardless, there are a lot of ifs, ands, and buts that make it hard to predict. I'm not about to claim we can wipe the floor with LA, but I think it's a lot closer than a lot of people do. They certainly can win, if the right pieces fall into place, if they clamp down their defense and eliminate stupid mistakes and don't allow themselves to be rattled by the inevitable missed shots and bad calls.

[easjer]

Or, put another way - I think it comes down to 2 factors. Health (out of their control, really) and mental toughness. Who has the most control and confidence here? If it's the Spurs, they win. If it's not, they lose.

[jackseven]

The most likely outcome is Lakers in 5/6 with Spurs fans conjuring more excuses about why the Spurs lost. Spurs fans will then "get 'em next year" and Pop and co. will come back with another bargain basement signing to string the fans along and keep the Spurs as a pretender.

I don't think the Spurs could beat the Cavs or the Celtics either.

[dbestpro]

The most likely outcome is Lakers in 5/6 with Spurs fans conjuring more excuses about why the Spurs lost. Spurs fans will then "get 'em next year" and Pop and co. will come back with another bargain basement signing to string the fans along and keep the Spurs as a pretender.

I don't think the Spurs could beat the Cavs or the Celtics either.

So, you lost everything in Vegas and have to live under a bridge and you still want to make projections.

[jackseven]

So, you lost everything in Vegas and have to live under a bridge and you still want to make projections.

I don't know what you're talking about, but I think it has something to do with the truth and it hurting.

[TheManFromAcme]

I think this LA fan has a point (only I refuse to give LA any edge). I think nearly everyone expects an epic battle between the two - and they are the two best in the West - but I think with the right combination either could be unseated before the WCF.

I really think Portland could be a surprise and this feels like a good year for Denver.

Regardless, there are a lot of ifs, ands, and buts that make it hard to predict. I'm not about to claim we can wipe the floor with LA, but I think it's a lot closer than a lot of people do. They certainly can win, if the right pieces fall into place, if they clamp down their defense and eliminate stupid mistakes and don't allow themselves to be rattled by the inevitable missed shots and bad calls.

Portland is better than most people give them credit for. They worry me as do the Spurs. I am not to concerned about the Nuggets or Hornets but one can never know.

Still gotta see Manu in action and at full strength. I am actually looking forward in seeing him play. The guy is too much of a heart-felt player to be missing out on the season. Sometimes I see him behind the Spurs bench and he's got the look of sheer desperation. I feel for the guy. I know he loves his team and wants nothing more than to battle. That's the Manu this Laker fan knows. The boy lives for ballin.

Well, hope he gets better.

[SpursDynasty]

Someone tell Pop that taking Gasol out of the series offensively is the key.

Example: Winning the Hornets series wasn't about Paul or West, but taking Peja out.

Gasol wasn't unstoppable on the Grizzlies and that's no secret. I see him night after night getting easy bull shots and easy putbacks (Gooden will solve this problem) because of all the attention Kobe gets. Let Kobe get his points. Shut down Gasol instead of trying to shut Kobe down, him getting his points anyway, and Gasol getting 12-for-12 from the floor games due to the attention on Kobe.

Or sit TD in the first half of every game and bring him out in the 2nd half to have a monster game.

[VI_Massive]

Someone tell Pop that taking Gasol out of the series offensively is the key.

Example: Winning the Hornets series wasn't about Paul or West, but taking Peja out.

Gasol wasn't unstoppable on the Grizzlies and that's no secret. I see him night after night getting easy bull shots and easy putbacks (Gooden will solve this problem) because of all the attention Kobe gets. Let Kobe get his points. Shut down Gasol instead of trying to shut Kobe down, him getting his points anyway, and Gasol getting 12-for-12 from the floor games due to the attention on Kobe.

I agree, but its easier said than done. Gasol is a really, really good player, especially offensively. Added bonus is that if Gasol isn't producing, Kobe could try to win it by himself and the Lakers are much worse when he takes tons of shots.

[NFGIII]

Portland seems to have the Lakers number so I wouldn't be surprised by an upset if they meet in the first round! This should be a cause for concern for the Lakers! Shades of Dallas/GS first round knockout!

^

Portland has everyone's number at home. I think they could maybe push LA to seven games, but unless they pull a miracle victory in LA, they would get beat.

Which is the key. They are monsters at home but not so tough on the road. They are a young and inexperienced team with great potential in the coming years. But I highly suspect that in a series against the Lakers they will eventually crack at home. Maybe not the first home game but by game 4 or 5 they will have probably come to the conclusion that it isn't their year and fold in 5 or 6. It seems that teams like this are just glad to get to the POs and after tasting it come back much more prepared the following years.

I'am positive I am in the minority here but with a healthy Manu (Key here being HEALTHY), this thing is a 50/50 shot. Question for Spurs fan here: How was Manu's health during the second meeting of the season (1/25/09). If Manu was already having issues with his leg/ankle/shin did we really defeat the Spurs at their best? I am still not that comfortable with these wins without a fully healthy Manu. Just an analysis and probing.

Of course I give the edge to the Lakers but somehow, someway, It bothers me. How will a Gooden, Manu, Parker, Duncan, Bonner.Oberto line-up really do at full, I mean full, 100% strength? I think the west is really under-estimating not only the Spurs but the Nuggets, blazers and hornets. Funnier things have happened.

A healthy Manu could and should provide the Spurs with a lot more than you have faced before. And how Gooden fits in come playoff time is another concern for you guys, too. But I still feel that it will be a very tough and physical series if/when we meet in the WCF. With Gooden we have a better answer in the paint in the terms of offense and rebounds than we did last year. I believe that if he comes through on these points then your ability to get sceond chance points, which you guys seem to thrive on, will be significantly reduced to cause problems. But I still give the Lakers the edge in a series between the two teams. Without a healthy Manu then all bets are off.

If we had a fully healthy rotation that had been playing together for several months, then I think it would be a complete crapshoot against LA. If everyone's healthy but hasn't played together much (which is the best we SA fans can hope for) I think we have a 40% chance of beating LA.

This is a concern for me, too. In our championship runs we have been pretty healthy coming down the stretch with an established rotation for the last second half of the season. This year we are trying to get Manu back to full health while at the same time integrating Gooden into the flow with our rotation in flux. Our chemistry just isn't there as of now.

The most likely outcome is Lakers in 5/6 with Spurs fans conjuring more excuses about why the Spurs lost. Spurs fans will then "get 'em next year" and Pop and co. will come back with another bargain basement signing to string the fans along and keep the Spurs as a pretender.

I don't think the Spurs could beat the Cavs or the Celtics either.

This year the Cavs are a much better team and could go all the way but the Celtics have regressed to a certain degree. They just don't seem to have that killer instinct the I saw so much of last year. Losing Posey hurt them and even though they signed Marbury the jury is still out. They don't have the perimeter D and 3 ball that Posey gave them last year coming off the ebnch. This could be their downfall come PO time. And Garnett isn't 100% except for his mouth which never stops running. But he still has time to get it together. We will see.

[Agloco]

Since when did we all care what ESPN columnists think? They don't know anything.

I see a lot of Spurs fans bringing up 2007. Here's a little known fact about the 2007 Spurs. They had the highest margin of victory of any team in the league that year.

So contrary to popular belief, they should not have snuck up on anyone's radar. Maybe on the ESPN columnist's radar, but to anyone paying attention to what was going on it should have been clear the Spurs were one of the best teams in the regular season.

True that, but everyone took it for granted that the Mavericks would beat the Spurs if they met in the PO again. The Warriors beating the Mavericks then made SA the clear favorite.

[Supergirl]

Gotta wonder how much even the Spurs experience is a factor being that LA beat SA last year and Mason, Hill, Bonner, and Gooden (4 of top 8 for SA) don't have that experience. And how much time would they have played together before the playoffs?

Ginobili will no doubt play in the postseason but will he be any better than last year?

Well seeing as how Manu didn't PLAY last year against the Lakers, yes, I think we can be assured that he will be better. Some Manu > no Manu. LOL.