How The San Antonio Spurs Can Win The 2008-09 NBA Championship

[J.T.]

I seriously think Pop sanbagged the whole season with a super talented team just to see how many games he could win without trying.

Can't wait to see what he has planned for the real season.

[J.T.]

I seriously think Pop sanbagged the whole season with a super talented team just to see how many games he could win without trying.

Can't wait to see what he has planned for the real season.

And if the Spurs win the championship this year, we will retroactively say that Pop spent the whole season in "Horry mode".

[SpursFanFirst]

I seriously think Pop sandbagged the whole season with a super talented team just to see how many games he could win without trying.

Can't wait to see what he has planned for the real season.

The funny thing is, there are times I think that must be the case. Injuries aside, how else do you explain this bizarre season?

But then, that's an awful big risk for Pop to take...so I'm back at square one.

I'm truly at a loss for words this season.

[holcs50]

Good Lord that was awesome. Best thing Ive read since I joined spurstalk. I give it an A++. The writing is top notch and the research is in depth. I agree with a lot of things you wrote and the numbers you found do look positively on each of the players. Though we know not everyone will come to perform.

For me its things like the only player who actually gets minutes that can actually penetrate is Parker. Not a good sign. Teams know the pick n roll is coming and will react accordingly. I see a lot of teams packing it in early in the offense to stop TPs penetrations...then we'll have to swing it around the perimeter and nobody will be able to create without a screen. Thus leading to the spurs infamous stretches of offense where the ball gets passed around a few times and it seriously looks like everyones just standing there watching to eventually have the possession end up in a last second shot thrown out from someones ass. I fear this with our lack of athletic perimeter players. To counter this we NEED to get the ball to TD down low more-and I suggest Gooden getting low and getting the ball on the block also. Working inside out is the only way to keep Ds honest and lanes open for parker to penetrate and kick/score.

Another thing is Udoka no matter what positive numbers found is just a waste IMO. I think the keys besides the obvious of TD and Park providing usual playoff production are Gooden playing quite a few minutes, stepping up and posting now and then. Finley no matter how old he is is the only other all-star guard on the team, his quickness may be gone but if he can step up and get in a good rhythm he still can be very dangerous...Just wish he still had that quickness. Defense-everyone really has to step up because the team has had one of its down years on that end. In the end I still believe...somewhat...I really think if like Timvp wrote-that things click and they come to play we can beat any team in the wester conference besides one and yall know who. Just don't see it happening under any cir stances-but never know another team might take them out. We can make a very good run and Ill be rooting all the way. Definitely is a steep, steep hill to climb, but you really can't say its over till its over.

So Go Spurs Go and lets make this post-season anything but reminiscent of the regular season. Its a new season, a new time, and anything can happen.

[romain.star]

Great read Timvp.
So to sum it up, spurs fans can believe IF:
- Duncan is 100% healthy
- TP keeps on playing at a superstar level
- Role players step up

[J.T.]

The funny thing is, there are times I think that must be the case. Injuries aside, how else do you explain this bizarre season?

But then, that's an awful big risk for Pop to take...so I'm back at square one.

I'm truly at a loss for words this season.

If it wasn't apparent he was doing this when he called that first Hack-A-Shaq on opening night, I'd say he's been rolling the dice on this season ever since Parker got hurt earlier this year.

The weird thing is I think he's going to do it in the playoffs too, because there's nothing more demoralizing to a team than to think you're going to win a game and then have the door slammed in your face at the last second. Pop's been going all in with 2-7 off suit all season and it probably cost us HCA but if there's any team in the NBA that doesn't need HCA in the playoffs it's the Spurs.

[lurker23]

Great OP, timvp. There's certainly a lot of reasons to think that the Spurs are capable of winning it all. And while none of us can honestly say that the chances of a championship are high, at least compared to previous years, there's never a reason to stop cheering for our Spurs, and there's never a reason to stop believing.

[spurspokesman]

Times are tough for the San Antonio Spurs. Manu Ginobili is out for the regular season and the playoffs with a stress fracture. Tim Duncan has one chronically sore knee and one knee suffering from a degenerative condition. The treads on Tony Parker's wheels are undoubtedly worn. All the while, head coach Gregg Popovich has consistently been inconsistent with his rotation throughout the entire 2008-09 NBA season.

As a result, it should be no surprise that the confidence of Spurs fans is at a low not seen for more than a decade. The focus amongst Spurs fans has already shifted from this year to next season. In the eyes of most Spurs fans, the hopes for championship number five have been delayed, at the least.

I am as guilty as any of my fellow Spurs fans in giving up on this campaign. The unfortunate Ginobili announcement seemed to be the season's death knell. However, after much consideration, I have decided to change my stance. While the odds are long and the obstacles are high, I just can't give up yet. As long as Duncan is willing to hobble out there on one knee, as long as Parker is willing to summon the needed vivacity and as long as everyone else keeps chipping away at that rock, I can't turn the chapter on this season.

It's easy to be a Spurs fan when things are going well. As Spurs fans, we have suckled at the teat of victory for an astonishingly long time. Now that we have hit a rough patch of sea in this ocean of success, it's unacceptable to cut bait and head for shore. As long as the Spurs are still fighting for the ultimate prize, I will remain dedicated to the cause.

Considering the aforementioned, I unfurl my vision on how the Spurs can win the 2008-09 NBA championship.

The first order of business is to assess the health of the foundation. Tim Duncan is unquestionably slowed at the moment. At times, the pain in Duncan's knees is rivaled only by the pain of Spurs fans watching him struggle with movements that were previously effortless. While Duncan's sore knees are much cause for concern, we must not forget whom we are dealing with. This is Tim Duncan, ladies and gentlemen. A man who has elevated his game like clockwork once the bright lights of the postseason begin to shine.

Since the All-Star break, Duncan's statistics illustrate his health problems. In 22 contests, he's averaging 16.4 points and 10.6 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game. Although far from encouraging numbers, this isn't Duncan's maiden journey into injury-related struggles following the All-Star break.

Exhibit A is Duncan's 2005-06 campaign. Following the All-Star break, his numbers were 33.1 minutes, 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Exhibit B is Duncan's 2004-05 season. That year, he averaged 28.3 minutes, 17.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game following the All-Star break. In 2005-06, he was hampered by a severe case of plantar fasciitis, while 2004-05 saw him slow due to multiple ankle injuries.

What else do those two year's have in common? The answer: a dominant Duncan in the playoffs. In 2006 postseason, he averaged 32.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in the series against the Dallas Mavericks. In 2005, as Spurs fans are well aware, the Spurs were able to win the championship with Duncan averaging 23.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in the postseason.

The message these stats should deliver is one of hope. Yes, Duncan isn't anywhere near healthy at the moment. Yes, time appears to be running out for Duncan to resurge. However, he has fought his way out of similar injury-laden holes only to re-emerge as his predictably extraordinary self once the bell tolls on the real season.

Alongside Duncan will be Tony Parker. And while Parker may seem like a known commodity, this isn't the same Tony Parker you are used to watching. The Parker of this season has elevated his game to superstar status. To say 2008-09 has been a career year would be an understatement.

This season, Parker is averaging more points and assists than ever. A closer look shows even more impressive stats. Even though he's scoring 10.5% more points per minute and dishing out 11.1% more assists per minute than at any point, he has managed to lower his turnover rate and his turnover percentage to career-best marks. His assists-to-turnover ratio is also far and away his career-best.

Parker's presence on the offensive end is undeniable. Per 100 possessions, the Spurs score 113.3 points when Parker is on the court. Only two teams in the league, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns, score as often as the Spurs do when Parker is playing. With forthcoming elevated minutes in the postseason, San Antonio has reason to be optimistic about their offense.

The offense that Parker quarterbacks has been extremely efficient throughout all the turmoil. Per possession, the Spurs turn the ball over less than any team in the NBA. Per possession, the Spurs are second in the NBA in assists. Those two numbers combined point to a point guard who knows how to orchestrate his show.

One caveat that has long been placed alongside Parker's success is an inability to produce late in games. This season, the 26-year-old has evidently matured to the point that he's now legitimately a late game option. In the fourth quarter, Parker averages 5.9 points per game, which is the 12th highest mark in the league. His shooting percentage in fourth quarters is 50.8% and that number is higher than the all 11 scorers ahead of him on the list.

In clutch situations, Parker has been even better. He has averaged 36.5 points per 48 minutes during the clutch and shoots 51.3% from the field. Perhaps the skill that will be missed most during Ginobili's absence is the Argentine's ability to produce during key moments. With Parker growth in this area, all hope is not lost.

If Duncan regains his footing and becomes a force in the playoffs and Parker continues to play at a superstar level, it can be argued defiantly that these two Spurs players can form the best one-two punch in the NBA. Show me a team with the best one-two punch in the NBA and I'll show you an NBA championship contender.

The role players on the 2008-09 Spurs are far from awe-inspiring, but I definitely see potential. Roger Mason, Jr. is the player who will be called upon to replace many of Ginobili's minutes at shooting guard. Following a surprisingly strong start to the season, Mason has been erratic. Some games he looks as if he's the planet's best shooter, other games he makes Spurs fans wonder what they ever liked about him.

What shouldn't be ignored is the fact that Mason has stepped up admirably when the Spurs have been without Ginobili. In the 34 games Ginobili has missed this season, Mason has averaged 13.7 points while shooting 43.3% from the field and 44.7% from beyond the three-point arc.

In fact, playing next to Ginobili has been problematic for Mason this season, with the most plausible reason being that the two didn't go through a training camp together and thus lack chemistry. In 44 games playing with Ginobili, Mason is averaging 10.1 points per game while shooting 40.7% from the field and 39.3% from three-point land.

There is no way that Mason can ever come close to replacing what Ginobili provides on a possession to possession or a game to game basis, but if he can continue to score and shoot at a high clip in his stead, the Spurs would have a chance. Plus, if the regular season is any indication, Mason doesn't exactly shy away from big moments.

Next to Mason on the perimeter will be Michael Finley. It's true that Finley can go through maddening dry spells. It's also clear that Popovich plays Finley more minutes than he deserves at times. That said, what makes Finley a frustrating player also makes him a player who just might become an x-factor - his streakiness. He can go through ice cold spells but he's also very capable of catching fire.

This season, Finley has quietly streaked in the positive direction more often than in his previous three seasons in San Antonio. The 36-year-old is shooting 41.8% from beyond the three-point line, which is easily the best mark of his career. His overall shooting percentage of 44.1% is nearly three percentage points higher than his next best mark as a member of the Spurs.

Defensively, while still far from great, he's playing at his highest level on that end in more than five years. He lost weight and got in better shape during the offseason and that has allowed him to stay in front of his man much more often than in previous campaigns. Finley isn't a lockdown perimeter defender by any means but in the right match-up, he has proven to be useful this season.

Regarding Finley, Spurs fans will just have to hope he goes through a hot phase at the right time. When he's on, he's capable of shooting this team to victory almost single-handedly. If that can happen just two or three times during the playoffs, Finley's season will have been a smashing success.

The backup swingmen, Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka, provide a healthy amount of grit. In the case of Bruce Bowen, his championship experience should not be undervalued. Even at 37, he can still defend. If the Spurs run up against a top flight perimeter player in the playoffs, Bowen has shown the ability at times to elevate his game back to the level that made him the best perimeter defender in the game of basketball.

Bowen's impact is still felt in the statistics. When he's on the court, opponents score 103 points per 100 possessions. When he's on the bench, opponents score 107.2 points per 100 possessions. On the other end, Bowen's shooting is still an asset. His three-point percentage is 43%, the highest it has been since he led the NBA in three-pointer shooting during the 2002-03 season. His 42.5% field goal percentage is the third highest of his Spurs career.

Popovich has hinted that he has been saving Bowen for the playoffs. If that is the case, the Spurs defense in the postseason could be considerably better than what has been on display during the regular season. That in itself should inspire hope in Spurs fans.

While Udoka has struggled through a difficult season, he is still a helpful player when he's on top of his game. At his best, Udoka is a good defender who can knock down open shots and coral rebounds by the boatload. He's shooting just 37% from the field and 30.6% from the three-point line this season, but last season against the New Orleans Hornets showed his potential to heat up. During that series, Udoka shot 61.5% from the field and 64.7% from beyond the three-point arc.

Rookie George Hill has taken on a utility role out on the perimeter. Even though he's only 6-foot-2, he's shown an ability to play point guard, shooting guard and small forward thanks to his athleticism and condor-like wingspan. Hill likely won't be handed any consistent minutes during the postseason, however if has definitely shown flashes of ability during his first season in the NBA. If he gets on a roll in the playoffs, there's a chance he could become a key cog in San Antonio’s machine.

Manning the frontcourt next to Tim Duncan is the heterogeneous collection that is Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto and Drew Gooden. Individually each of these bigmen offer useful traits. In the postseason, the hope will be that Popovich figures out how to mix and match so that the hodgepodge of abilities are properly utilized.

In Bonner, the Spurs have their bigman with perimeter marksmanship. For nearly the entire season, he's been one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA. Over the last few months, he's added a dependable slashing game to his repertoire. And while he's definitely an unorthodox bigman compared to most others at his position in the NBA, a lot of Spurs fans would be surprised at how successful he's been during the 2008-09 campaign.

On the season, Bonner has a plus/minus of +245. That mark is second on the team, trailing only Parker. Even more impressively, his plus/minus per minute is +.152, which is far and away the best mark on the team. In fact, it is 21.1% better than any other player. The Spurs score substantially more points when he's on the court and, even though his defense isn't always appreciated, opponents score less when Bonner is on the court.

On the whole, Bonner definitely has his warts as a player but he's had a very good season, relatively speaking, and his outside shooting in the playoffs has a chance to be a difference maker. He'll have to prove it on the court but the numbers say Bonner has, and can, help when the postseason arrives.

To begin the season, Thomas looked like a lost cause. He was extremely slow, his mobility was limited and his outside shot wasn't finding cord. But starting in the middle of December, Thomas turned around his season and has been a godsend. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 5.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game in 20 minutes. Those numbers are impressive, however they don't tell the story of how well he has defended and how helpful he has been on the offensive end with his unmovable picks.

In the playoffs, the 36-year-old could very well see an uptick in minutes. If that occurs, Thomas has shown the ability to be very productive in various facets of the game. Like Bowen, he's a veteran who very well could peak when it's money time.

Fabricio Oberto has been on the outside of the rotation looking in. His play hasn't been up to par and his reoccurring heart condition has further hindered his season. However, a Spurs fan just has to recall his brilliant play during the 2007 NBA championship run to understand his capabilities. In the right match-up, Oberto is a very useful 11th or 12th man to have at the end of the bench.

The wildcard in the bigman rotation, and perhaps on the entire team, is newcomer Drew Gooden. Since joining the Spurs, he's shown the good aspects of his game that have kept teams intrigued over the years, along with the negative aspects that have attributed to his welcome being worn out in each of his previous NBA stops.

You can question Gooden's motivation, his willingness to fit into a team concept and even whether he has championship-level moxie, however what you can't question is his talent. On the offensive end, he can score in the low block, he can nail shots from the perimeter and he can score off the dribble. Defensively, his live body allows him to be an adequate individual defender and a capable shot-blocker.

Can Gooden learn to maximize his talents within the Spurs system while minimizing his tendency to hog the ball on offense and fall asleep on defense? If he can, his ceiling on the Spurs is extremely high. To date, he's averaging 8.9 points and 3.8 rebounds in only 15.4 minutes per game. To put that in perspective, Gooden is averaging more points per minute in his short time with San Antonio than either Duncan or Ginobili.

Imagine for a second that Gooden evolves to the point that he can play major minutes at some point during the playoffs. Now start adding the other pieces to the equation. A creaky foundation that battles back from injury to be the Tim Duncan in the playoffs. A superstar level Tony Parker. A bevy of shooters capable of shooting lights out. A handful of veterans who may have yet seen the peak to their season. Imagine all of that and you can't tell me the Spurs don't have a shot.

No matter how good of a chance you believe the Spurs have at this point, any reasonable observer would give this team at least a shred of hope. Add a four-time NBA champion coach to the equation who has shown his Hall of Fame mettle over the years and seems to thrive when the going gets treacherous. I don't know about you, my fellow Spurs fan, but I'm not ready to stop believing.

Believe.

As A true spurs fan I'm forced to believe. Im with you on that VP

[JoeChalupa]

Well said LJ.

[1Parker1]

Nice post Timvp...even if it is a little overly optimistic

I said it before in another post...but these Spurs, even without Manu Ginobili and a hobbled Tim Duncan are still pretty good. If it weren't for those damn Lakers, I'd still like the Spurs chances against any other team in the Western Conference. Seeds 2-8 are pretty much dead even, with the Spurs being the ones with the championship and most postseason experience. Sure they aren't athletic enough to keep up with Portland, sure they don't have the physical toughness to match up against Utah, sure they don't have a Dirk or CP3 stopper against the Mavs or Hornets...but these are all teams the Spurs have beaten in the past and could do so again.

That being said, no one is getting by the d*mn Lakers in the West, so it's all pretty much a moot point. I'll be proud of these Spurs if they make it through one round in the playoffs, especially if it's on the road. That should tell you a lot about the character and what's left in this group in the Tim Duncan era.

[sonic21]

great read timvp

[Bukefal]

Nice read!!! Its not impossible, we do have a chance, all we have to do is believe and support. It hasnt been the greatest season, but i have confidence.

GO spurs!

[Lebowski Brickowski]

Something of this length should be read on the toilet. I'll be back in a few.

[Spurs Brazil]

GREAT read timvp

[mathbzh]

Yes really great read.

No matter how big it is, there is Hope.

[janet1122]

I believe!!! Afterall, it is the Spurs!!!

[Agloco]

Great read Timvp.
So to sum it up, spurs fans can believe IF:
- Duncan is 100% healthy
- TP keeps on playing at a superstar level
- Role players step up

I guess the paradox is that he's not 100% healthy. Where exactly does that leave Spurs fans?

Good thing that Pandora's reflexes were quick enough to keep hope around.

[ManuTP9]

that was an excellent read. We are Still In this!

[Lebowski Brickowski]

OK I'm back.

I love the analysis, player by player. What I think it makes clear is that offense probably should NOT be a probelm. Defense, on the other hand, is still up in the air as long as Bruce is a spot player. (George Hill too, to a much lesser extent.)

Pop has HINTED about Bruce being saved for the playoffs, but what remains to be seen is if Pop suddenly has the moxie to give Bruce back his standard role to stop AK47 or Ron Artest or Melo.

And since timvp showed (correctly, I think) that this team is plenty capable offensively, even without Michael Finley, and that the "Tim Question" is still a bit nebulous (though history and reputation is on Duncan's side), I say Bruce is going to be VITAL.

[silverblackfan]

Another excellent post, Timvp. For a while there your articles were tending toward the negative, but this one formulated a lot of the thoughts that rattle through my head. I am sure most of the long time fans who follow each player see the same things. This team is far from done and when wounded, they get inspired. I still remember David getting thrown out of the game in Portland. The Portland crowd was ecstatic. One less superstar was a lock for the Blazers to win. The funny thing is, the Blazers had a different look on their face. "Oh . They are pissed now."

[urunobili]

damn good writing timvp

and i still believe we have shot... we truly do... :flag

[Summers]

Even if Bowen suddenly morphed into Kobe, it wouldn't be enough given the rest of the team. Get a grip you morons.

Oh and if you've already folded tent and have given up on the season, please post in one of the other hundreds of threads dedicated to your cause.

Thanks.

[Summers]

When do we break out the bravatars and voodoo dolls?

[MoSpur]

Not kissing butt, but I needed to read this thread. Awesome post LJ. I still hold out hope. I am very frustrated with this team and have questioned Pop's coaching as of late. I still think this veterand led squad can pull out a miracle. Everyone has to step up their game. It starts with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. I have no doubt these two will step up.

[Indazone]

Spurs picking up Bonzi Wells should be a no brainer. This dude is in shape after just coming back from the CBA and he can flat out score and rebound. He's good for a few minutes off the bench and gives the Spurs defensive and offensive depth.