Unfortunately I do not believe Ginobili will end up getting in. Let's throw Finals MVP out of the equation because that's HIGHLY unlikely playing alongside Parker and Duncan. If it's any close the award goes to them first.
Now on the other hand if the Spurs were able to win 2 more les? It's still borderline because his career numbers just don't size up. The original post was that he will play 6 more years? I'd love to see it but I'm looking more along the lines of 3/4 more GREAT seasons. He's already 31 and consistently breaking down - obviously his aggressive playing style contributes to that.
Career wise he's a 15 points per game, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists player. Post season performances make you legendary but ask Horry, Fisher or Kukoc how that equals in HOF talk.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html
Lists him at a 0.056 chance and that ranks 29th in current players.