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i rather allow lower than 90 instead of score over 100
And my, how well that has worked for them!
i rather allow lower than 90 instead of score over 100
The spurs can score around 100-102 pts pergame with no problem. To do that however, this pick n roll non-sense has to stop. The utah Jazz run some beautiful half-court sets that involve all 5 players moving without the ball. D-will and Boozer might run a pick n roll on one side of the floor while the 3 other players are back cutting and setting screens for each other on the other side of the floor. So if Williams is kept out of the paint his other option is Korver coming off a screen for 3. If He gets half-way down the lane and is cut off his other option is Millsap underneath the basket, wideopen. The Spurs offense is as follows, 1) Run 3-4 pick n rolls with Parker/Duncan and then Bonner, Finley and Mason stand behind the arc waiting for an open 3. 2) Parker gives it to Duncan in the post on one side of the floor while Bonner, Finley and Mason wait behind the 3pt arc for a shot. That kind of offense gets you no-where. Tim Duncan doesn't get that many double teams anymore, Tony Parker is allowed to torch defenders so he'll get worn out by games end. J.Sloan system works if you have star players or average players. Pops system works only if you have star players and shooters. Just think if Pop took some of sloans stuff. You would have Mason Jr. coming off screens for 3 or RJ back-cutting for a pass from Parker or Parker getting half-way down the Lane and finding Blair wideopen underneath the basket. Thats not even factoring in Manu/Duncan. Unfortunately that will never happen. RJ is just gonna be a role player that Pop will use to post up every now and then.
It is always fun to see someones analysis. Personally, I think the pace of the game will determine everything.
Season...PPG......RPG......APG
1998-99 92.8.....44.0.....22.0
1999-00 96.2.....43.8.....22.2
2000-01 96.2.....44.1.....21.7
2001-02 96.7.....42.4.....20.0
2002-03 95.8.....42.6.....20.0
2003-04 91.5.....45.1.....20.4
2004-05 96.2.....42.4.....21.6
2005-06 95.6.....41.5.....20.9
2006-07 98.5.....40.7.....22.1
2007-08 95.4.....41.3.....21.0
2009-09 97.0.....41.0.....21.2
------------------------------
11 yr avg 95.6.....42.6.....21.2
See how unrealistic the OP projections are when viewed against the past 11 Popovich-guided seasons?
The most important stats will be ones not referenced here. Point Diff and Opp. FG%.
Guessing can be fun but let's get real, folks.
Your stats are flawed because of the non-handcheck rules starting from the 2004-2005 season. I suggest only those stats be used and they are significantly higher too.
~98 ppg, 43 rpg, 23 apg.
That'd make me really happy but it's probably a bit optimistic.
The problem was lack of talent, Bonner and Finley are more reliable taking a set shot at the 3pt line. Furthermore, both are completely unreliable driving to the hoop.
I do expect a more dynamic offense this time with the athletic bodies we have. However, I doubt we'll have a system as complex and well executed as the Jazz. The Spurs tend to get their points the easy way and if we ever get in a bind, we rely too much on the talents of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to get us out of it.
Whats easier telling tim duncan to post up all game on a bad knee and score over a 7 footer? telling Parker to run around for the with the ball and score while 3 guys stand around? or option 3 tell the other players to move without the ball and get layups and open 15fters all game?
The stats are from NBA.com so they aren't really flawed. I think you mean my argument is flawed. My argument is that the OP's projections were unrealistic in view of the past 11 seasons. The hand-check rules changed in 1999-2000 and again in 2004. If you had taken the time to do the math yourself and posted it...then maye you wouldn't have bothered posting it.
You would have seen that the PPG were only 1.6 PPG higher in the years you suggested but the rebounding numbers were down 2.3 RPG and assists were so close +0.3 that it wasn't worth mentioning. Here are the numbers you suggested we post:
1998-99 through 2003-04
94.9....43.7....21.1
2004-05 through 2008-09 seasons
PPG.....RPG.....APG
96.5....41.4....21.4
What was the pace? Pace adjusted stats would look better.
A legitimate 3rd scoring option which for the better part of last season we did not have.
Last year, the Spurs actually scored 97.0 points a game which was one of the highest in Popovich history.
Thats casue they didnt play as much defense. The team Popovich had could put up numbers. Parker / Duncan with 3 perimeter shooters in Bonner/Mason Jr. / Finley. The spurs also took alot of 3pt shots. On the otherhand they couldnt stop anybody. Bonner moving into the starting spot meant that their would be an huge opportunity to get open shots when Tim is doubled, He tool advantage ( 8.2pts per game career high ) However Defensively that meant that whatever center was playing against the spurs would have a field day ( Bonner 4.8rbds / 0.32 blocks per game ). Pop exchange a defensive team in Bowen/Oberto for an Offensive team Mason Jr. / Bonner.
It worked in 2006-07 with Oberto/Horry/Elson.
With Bonner/Thomas/Oberto in 2008-09...not so much.
We are not going to average 105 points per game. It is irrelevant anyway. The GSW scored like 107 points per game last year. The key stat in this area is point differential. I would also submit that if Pop rests Duncan and McDyess on B2B's that the relevant stat will be point differential in games that the Spurs aren't resting key players. Also, with the influx of new players the team's true potential won't be seen IMO until the last 25 games of the season. In addition, if we have a spot pretty much wrapped up by the end of the season there is no telling who might be resting, so I might look at point differential in games 55 through 80 that the team is not resting key players not due to injury. There you have it....analyze that.
John Hollinger, Jr.
And that's why Phoenix is mentioned in the same breath as SA, Chicago, LA and Boston right?
+1We are not going to average 105 points per game. It is irrelevant anyway. The GSW scored like 107 points per game last year. The key stat in this area is point differential. I would also submit that if Pop rests Duncan and McDyess on B2B's that the relevant stat will be point differential in games that the Spurs aren't resting key players. Also, with the influx of new players the team's true potential won't be seen IMO until the last 25 games of the season. In addition, if we have a spot pretty much wrapped up by the end of the season there is no telling who might be resting, so I might look at point differential in games 55 through 80 that the team is not resting key players not due to injury. There you have it....analyze that.
John Hollinger, Jr.
Ahhh yes, the much maligned point differential is kinda like a window into the soul of a team. There have been numerous threads about this and I'll argue till the cows come home that Point Diff is the single most telling stat. Period.
Unsure of what you point would be. Spurs pace last year was around 90.5...somewhere near the bottom. It's always pretty low. I know your original point in this thread was that 105 ppg and 46 rpg were unrealistic...as was mine. What other point are you trying to make here?
Nothing else. It would make things more clear that the Spurs were never meant to run a fast paced game. Most of the top teams do not play a fast pace with the exception of the Lakers. The Spurs should go with what works and not change their style drastically which will affect the team. Most of the Spurs players would not be able to adjust to the high pace anyway.
A top 7 defensive team in the NBA and Oberto was not what you call a good defender. Bonner was a decent man defender and not as sucky as the rest of you think he is. He is just not starter calibre.
The scoring offense could go up if Pop puts more emphasis on offensive rebounding, something I doubt he'll do since it will hurt his defense. If Blair inherits Duncan's role of primary offensive rebounder and does a better job of it than Duncan it's possible, but I don't see the kind of bump you are anticipating.
Oberto is a much smarter player all around. He is a much better defender against nowitzki than bonner is. Bonner doesn't play good man to man defense and his help defense is atrocious. Oberto allows Dirk to get up a shot but doesn't allow him to drive the ball where he wants to. Oberto can also rotate and draw charges. Bonner would try to deny nowitzki the ball, which resulted in overplaying and touch fouls and a broken down defense when nowitzki would drive because he was always out of position. Oberto gives Dirk some room and contest his shots without fouling, which also allows him the ability to force nowitzki to help defense or take a step back and stop a driving guard from getting an unmolested layup.
Ya, and Nowitzki is just one person. What about the others. This was also because of the international games Argentina had with germany, so Oberto knew how to guard Nowitzki better than most of the NBA.
exactly my point bro, Oberto also has a high basketball IQ which covers alot of ground if your not physically gifted. Bonner is not physically gifted or has a high BBall IQ. He has his 3pt shot which comes and goes like any shooter. Oberto's IQ doesnt do that, He's not smart one game and then plays like a rookie the next. IQ is consistent, 3pt shooting most certainly is not. Oberto Over Bonner any day, wouldn't you agree?
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