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lol, that's why they were picked in the 2nd round
Here are the promising players that drafted lower in 2005 than Ian:
David Lee
Brandon Bass
Ronny Turiaf
Von Wafer
Monta Ellis
Andray Blatche
Marcin Gortat
and undrafted:
Jose Calderon
Kelenna Azubuke
Chuck Hayes
Josh Powell
So from this prospective, if Ian doesn't play for the Spurs, it'll be a complete bust because the damn front office decided to get creative and draft a completely unknown and unproven player.
lol, that's why they were picked in the 2nd round
Pick any draft and I'll find you a similar list of 2nd rounders and undrafted players that went on to have better career than some first rounders. It's a real fun game to play.
IF you stopped to think about it, you would see that lists like yours PROVE what a crapshoot the draft is. The further you get from the top, the greater the uncertainty.
2005 was a very rich draft. Okay, just for comparison, let's look at 2004, let's see which players in the 2nd round developed into NBA players:
Varejao
Ariza
Just two players! So you can be excused for drafting Beno Udrih at 28th because (1) he's still an NBA player (2) chances are you couldn't have drafted any better.
okay.... let's look even earlier... 2003. Damn rich draft.
Spurs draft Barbossa and trade him. Here's the 2nd round:
Kapono
Walton
Blake
Pachulia
Bogans
Bonner
Mo Williams
Kyle Korver
compare this list to the 2005 list and you'll realize quickly how big a missed opportunity it was.
As usual, you miss the point. The missed opportunities are only visible with the advantage of hindsight.
No, you missed the point. It's all about probabilities.
2003 was a mistake because there was no better player than Barbosa.
2004 was a not a mistake because the likelihood ( 7 out of 100 ) of drafting would be plain luck.
2005 was a mistake because drafting a better player had the odds of 7/30 or roughly 1 out of 4.
And that's is what this discussion is all about. Was drafting Ian a mistake?
Barbossa clearly a mistake. Beno wasn't one. Ian if he doesn't stick with the Spurs will be a mistake.
You only know these things with the benefit of hindsight. In hindsight, better choices were available. On the day those drafts were held, it was all conjecture.
The le of this thread poses the question of whether or not Ian is a bust, not whether or not drafting him was a mistake. Those are two very different questions, at least to me.
My understanding of the word bust when used in connection with NBA/NFL draft scenarios does not include a case like Ian's.
As I stated earlier in this thread:
The 28th pick, by definition, cannot be a bust.
At least as I understand the meaning of the word.
I dunno I mean the past couple of years lots of people here kinda expected him to be a part of the rotation by this time, so I guess he is a Spurstalk bust.
Maybe for most other teams, like say the Clippers, you wouldn't call it a bust.
But for the Spurs standards, it could be one. Consult all our drafts since 2000 and it'll be hard to argue if anyone of them were busts. Plain and simple, the Spurs rarely if ever have busts.
And how do you know if someone was a bust, well obviously only hindsight will tell you! Duh!
Let's just say this though, Ian is till a Spur for this year, so it is too early to tell if he was a bust. All I'm saying is that if he doesn't play, then he would be a bust.
I'm speechless
Jeez, he hasn't even played yet this season. I think he should get some time in today in exchange for Ratliff, since we're playing the friggin' Kings off a back-to-back, lol. Maybe, then maybe we can start to judge if he's a bust.
He wasn't cultivated last year thanks to being misdiagnosed on his injury.
This is now a contract year for Ian. By declining next year's option, Pop is lighting a fire under him and seeing how he responds. He has nothing to lose now, so if he doesn't throw himself into the mix and dive for loose balls and start unleashing "the beast within", then he knows where he won't be next year.
Exactly.
I don't know if "bust" is the right word. But if you guys don't think Pop, Ian and everyone else associated with the Spurs isn't disappointed at where Ian is right now, you are crazy.
I'm not saying the Spurs expected him to be starting by now. However, I'm sure they didn't expect him to be chronically injured and a wasted pick either. They had probably hoped at this point, he'd be earning some minutes in the regular rotation.
If he hadn't been hurt all last year, then maybe that would have been the time for him to carve a niche here. But now with Duncan/McDyess/Blair/Bonner/Ratliff ahead of him, even if he's stellar in practice, it would be a long long road to consistent minutes.
If he does unleash the beast, he won't be here next year.
I don't think there's any realistic chance he's here next year, but if he plays really well then there's no chance.
I would love to see Ian get playing time to prove himself, but I think the fact of the matter is that the proof happens out of the public eye: in PRACTICE. He is gonna have to kick butt in practice and prove he DESERVES to play before we ever see him on the court. He is going to have to try to become Blair's nightmare, and that is obviously asking a lot!!! We'll see, 82 games is a of a grind and a ton of time for Ian to come around in his mindset about his approach to the game.
, we usually don't start to gel as a team anyway until after the rodeo trip. So a 4 month window of opportunity is ticking, after that Pop usually has his rotation down and there isn't much chance to break the rotation, barring injury.
Even though we declined his option year, wouldn't we still have restricted free agent rights? Or does that go out the window with the declined option year?
^^He'll be an unrestricted free agent.
By the CBA, the Spurs can offer no more than Ian would have received if the Spurs had picked up the option. It's a provision designed to keep teams from subverting the CBA by declining an option on a great player in order to sign him to new long-term deal 1-2 years earlier than normal.
So the maximum the Spurs can offer Ian this summer is 1.78M.
If he plays very well this season, that won't be enough to keep him.
The more likely scenario is that he is traded as a part of a package for a roster improvement or is moved in a lux tax saving transaction.
That's your definition. Mine has always been someone who was highly touted, a high pick or FA signing, and then stiffs.
Spurs can offer Mahinmi more than $1.78M but they had to use the MLE to do so.
And I agree with you, it's almost sure than Ian won't be a Spur next year.
All 28th picks are a crap shoot. Even by ceperez's rather twisted logic, if there is only a 1 in 4 chance of selecting a better player, then there is a 3 in 4 chance of not. No team is going to hit on every pick. The Spurs, not counting picks made for other teams as part of trades, are by my count 3 out of 7 with draft picks from the mid-20's to mid-30's in the Tim Duncan era, which is not a bad hit rate overall.
Hits:
Parker
Hill
Blair
Misses:
Udrih
Mahinmi
Williams
Undetermined:
Splitter
The Spurs apparently thought Mahinmi was a steal of a pick when they got him. They were wrong; he hasn't panned out. Even though Mahinmi is still really young, if he had "it," "it" would have shown up by now even if in unpolished form. The reason he hasn't gotten any playing time is because he hasn't demonstrated that he deserves any.
But the hype in Spurstalk regarding Mahinmi is just business as usual. There are always two camps here.
One is the large homer camp which believes that any player the Spurs draft is a genius pick who will be a superstar once he develops, and keep believing that as long as the team holds his rights, but then immediately forget the player ever existed, or at least dismiss him as stupid, lazy, and evil, once the Spurs release him. , there are still people here burning a candle for Robertas freaking Javtokas.
The second is the smaller group with an irrational hatred for Gregg Popovich who hates every pick the Spurs make, points out some other player the Spurs should have drafted even when the one they did get is good (sometimes even if that player was already gone when the Spurs picked), harps on all busts as proof that Pop is a moron, but then when the busts get released starts lionizing them and calling their release a huge mistake.
The everlasting struggle between these two legions of knuckleheads is why the rather prosaic story of a late first-round pick not panning out turns into this drawn-out saga here.
My CBA knowledge increases yet again.
I had this sentence stuck in my head:
In other words, teams can't decline the option in order to get around the salary scale and give the player more money.
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q19
Closer inspection shows that only applies to the Bird exception, not the Mid-Level exception.
Thanks
i say let him lace them up and play in some meaningful games and see what he has. come on Pop its early in the season.
I hope Ian can still show some signs of life.
You can't judge a pick without taking into account the drafting class that he was in. Some years the pickings are slim, other years they aren't
Udrih was not a miss because if you looked at that class, there was likey you would pick a miss anyway.
M. Williams was drafted in the 2nd round and there are only 2 other players that were drafted lower and are still in the NBA. Davis and Gasol. Why we missed on Marc Gasol is anybody's guess.
In short, you can't consider a pick a miss when the pickings are slim.
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