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Duncan in his prime would have this team in the WCF at least, no doubt about it..
He doesn't look hobbled to me. If anything, maybe fatigued, as Blackjack suggested.
But the thing is: If he really is breaking down again, what would that mean for next season? Limit his minutes even more? Really sit him out consequently on b2b games? If so, then the Spurs would need more help than they already do in the big man rotation.
Duncan in his prime would have this team in the WCF at least, no doubt about it..
Given Tim's age and NBA mileage, concern about his ability to maintain a high level of play through the entire regular season and the playoffs is justified. That being said, I'm not that alarmed by the statistical falloff after the All-Star break.
I had compiled some numbers to look at this subject in advance of the OKC game on Feb 24th. It was the first game after the RRT. One year earlier, on Feb 24, 2009, the Spurs played their first game after the RRT without Manu and without Tim, both of whom had gone down during the trip.
With all the instability and changes this season, Pop has remained consistent on one score, Tim Duncan's minutes. In 2008-09, Duncan had played 1866 minutes by the end of the RRT. He had exceeded 38 minutes in 15 games including 9 games in excess of 40 minutes, among these games of 50, 48, and 46 minutes.
In contrast, Duncan had logged only 1649 minutes by the end of the RRT this season, or 217 fewer minutes compared to the same point last season. He has exceeded 38 minutes only 6 times with just 2 games over 40 minutes. His longest outing of the season was 41:15 in the OT game v. Dallas.
When Tim came back in March last season, it was obvious that he was limited by the injury. His minutes and stats went down because he was not capable of doing any better.
This season he has fallen off from his early season pace, and some of that is probably from the wear and tear of a long season, but some of it can be chalked up to the small post-break sample.
For example, FG% shows a drop from 52.7% to 46.0%. That looks alarming, but he was 4-23 in the first game of the second half. He has shot 50% in the 12 subsequent games. Same with rebounds. Take away the 13 minute, 1 rebound effort against the Clips and his post break rebound average is back up to 10.
My concern would be more observational than statistical. Duncan had J.J. Hickson guarding him last week. Tim Duncan should dominate that matchup and he did not. We just don't know why he did not.
It will be very interesting to see whether Pop continues to strictly manage Tim's minutes over the brutal stretch run even if the losses start to mount. The playoffs are only a month away. Will the bubble wrap come off before the playoffs begin?
Minutes as of March 15th:
2008-09: 2113/34.6 mpg
2009-10: 1942/31.8 mpg
I'm not worried. It looks like he's moving well. Last year it was tough, that game against Blazers at AT&T made me sad, he could barely walk but was there playing
That's when I knew it was over. That sequence right before Pop pulled him in the 4th quarter was just painful to watch.
He's not MVP Timmy any longer, but he looks much, much better than he did that night.
I wouldn't worry, he seems to be moving well. I wonder sometimes if limiting player minutes during the regular season hurts them come playoff time, especially if they are not injured. You're conditioned to play 30 minutes during the regular season...are you conditioned come playoff time to play 35 to 40 minutes? In some cases, it probably works both ways.
McDyess/Blair/RJ/Manu have all had good rebounding games dotted through the season, so I think that could be a reason behind his Rebounding numbers falling from the start of the season.
He took the s of Robinson, S-Jax, Malik Rose, Sop re Parker, Rookie Manu, Bowen and some other scrubs to a le, Prime Timmy would easily take this team to the Finals.
duncan sucks
durant for duncan baby
Duncan's decline comes mostly from 2 factors:
- he's hitting midrange jumpers at a much lower rate. More or less a 10% decline.
- he's drawing fouls at a much lower rate. From 2.6FGA per FTA to 3.9FGA per FTA. The main reason for this is that he's creating less shots for himself in the block. His efficiency or his assisted shots didn't decline.
The first factor isnt' worrying. The second one is.
His rebounding has been down big time in the last few games but I wouldn't read much into it yet because the Spurs have been rebounding the ball decently.
To me he's been looking less agile/energetic in the last 45 days or so, but it's still early to say if he can snap out of it or not.
Duncan is fine. he's doing ALOT better than when the season started. He's saving it for the playoffs as he does every year. He had a bit of an OFF nite tonite, but that happens to everybody also. He could play this game for years if he wanted because he was never the most athletic player even when he was young so he never has really relied on natural athletic ability.. Over the course of time as a player ages often their games decline as they age, but duncan has relied on court IQ and fundamental skills to compete more than athleticism, so as he ages his game doesn't deteriorate as much. -the injuries are the only thing that would concern me.
Last edited by G-Dawgg; 03-16-2010 at 09:13 PM.
timvp: are those averages for last season after all star break for his entire season after the break or just to this point in games played?
we should always be worried about duncan. He is our lynchpin. However, from what I have seen this post-all star break he looks much better than he did at this point least year. I also think due to our recent schedule of scrub teams that Pop has played Duncan less minutes out of choice, whereas last year was definitely more by necessity.
TD is going to do just enough to get by.. saving himself for the POs.
His shot selection has been HORRIBLE in the last month and a half or so..I don't know if it's because he's adjusted his game to slowing down with the wear and tear of the season, but he's taking a lot of bad shots..
I was worried early in this game. Not because he wasn't making shots, but because he looked way too tentative out there. I'm glad Dice has been playing better and RJ has been helping rebound the ball. Any little help we can get to rest those knees is welcome right about now. Not worried so far. But this thing can flare up at any given time, so let's just hope Tim can have a full season without pain.
I cringe when the ball goes to Tim. The offense stops, he holds the ball, doesn't know what to do, and then a godawfully flat ball heave with 1% chance of going in.
ur an idiot
duncan maybe bored the last 3 games these teams are not that great
he knows he can go throw the motions
"He can go throw the motions" WTF does it means????
he can play but his mind us at home not in the gym
I really can't understand you, but i think you wanted to say "He can go through the motions.
Yes he can, but he's not bored, he's relaxing a bit couse the team is playing better.
RJ is taking lots of RB that could go to Tim stats.
less 5 minutes is probably about 6 points and 2-3 rebounds for Duncan in which could add to his percentage as well. Plus he is probably not trying to overdue it before the playoffs
LMFAO at this, he has had a better season at 34 than Tony has had at 37 and he has played alot more games! Your posts always suck.
Tough to say. As others have begun to step up as the year has worn on (and as the Spurs have begun to mercifully go away from small ball), Duncan has had to carry less of the load, so naturally I assume he's pacing himself. I still trust he'll step up in the playoffs, as he always does, but there is definitely concern. That's natural though. He's 33 going on 34, has bad knees and was leaned on far too heavily in virtually every aspect of the game for the first half of the season.
Big game tomorrow. The consensus two best big men in the league going head to head. Back to back or not, Duncan has played 69 minutes combined in the last 3 games and before today was coming off two days rest. He should be rested enough and motivated enough (considering his recent showings and the opponent) to have a good game.
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