Random Thoughts Before Game 5

[quentin_compson]

Yeah, while it's good to see that the Spurs don't have to rely on shooting around 40% on threes, it'd still be nice to be more threatening from long distance. The Mavs' defense against penetration from our guards is not that good to begin with, and if Bonner could pose some kind of threat to them, it would greatly benefit our spacing.
So I'm all for Bonner at least getting a chance. His rebouning has been poor, but at least he hasn't been embarrassed on defense.

Looking beyond this series (not that we don't have to win it first, and it would be great for players like Timmy and Manu to get some rest as well, so I sure hope they close it out tonight), a seven/eight man rotation is awfully thin.

I'm expecting Nowitzki to score a lot tonight, but I also expect Tim to be better than 1-9. Hopefully, Tony, George and Manu will be attacking the rim and Dice will continue to rebound well.

[HarlemHeat37]

I don't mind the number of players in the rotation, but Bonner MUST contribute at some point if the Spurs are going to make a run at a le..while it's scary and sad that the Spurs have to rely on Matt Bonner, it's pretty much how this team is currently built..they desperately need both 3-point shooting AND depth up front, and Bonner is a huge part of both categories..

It would be different if the Spurs had other shooters(like if Mason didn't become horrible) or if they had other bigs for depth(like if Ratliff wasn't traded), but as of right now, Bonner is the easy answer to both..

Since Bonner is unlikely to contribute, the Spurs will have to rely on hot shooting from Manu/Hill/RJ from 3-point range and Blair to play a significant role up front..

[Obstructed_View]

The Mavs are almost certainly going to make guarding the paint a point of emphasis, so the best thing the Spurs can do is to hit their threes early, because if they can knock a few of them down, the Mavs may go back to their regular defense and give the Spurs driving opportunities again. It also serves to help take the crowd out early.

Bonner and Mason's poor three point shooting has forced Pop to all but abandon game-planning for threes, which has helped the team tremendously. I'm hoping that if they do hit some early threes that Pop resists the urge to try to get them more outside shots and instead keeps pounding it inside.

This is really one of those times I'm wishing the Spurs hadn't traded Latiff, but that's water under the bridge. Going forward, the Spurs are going to have to just hope that the Bonner-Blair frontcourt doesn't give up too many points for them to make up the rest of the game. The mix of double teams has been enough to make Dirk have to look over his shoulder when he gets the ball, and will hopefully continue to keep him a bit off balance.

[objective]

I'm through with Bonner. Even as anti-Bonner as his historical play had made me, I still supported playing him and just sitting him if he wasn't hitting (which Pop thankfully finally did in game 4).

But that's it. This guy can't do it. I thought at least in a couple of home games the pressure would be off, but no. You play Matt Bonner, even if just the first half, odds are it will end badly. Maybe not in the plus/minus stats, but it won't be a good thing.

You had a whole month when Bonner was hurt to try to develop Mahinmi or Ratliff instead of playing Manu at PF or whatever nonsense was happening. Everyone knew that Bonner was unlikely to be anything else but a playoff choker and couldn't be relied on (just like Mason). So now the playoffs are here and it's like some big unexpected surprise that these guys are worthless in the rotation, and now it's been shortened because possible other fits weren't given enough time or trust.

If there is still a determination to play Bonner, I just hope to God they stagger the subs so that he's never on the court with Blair at the same time. Maybe that will be too hard and there will still be some crossover, but I just hope it stays close to zero.

[Obstructed_View]

If there is still a determination to play Bonner, I just hope to God they stagger the subs so that he's never on the court with Blair at the same time. Maybe that will be too hard and there will still be some crossover, but I just hope it stays close to zero.

That really has been the disaster lineup for the Spurs.

[objective]

though I should say I expect the Mavs to win tonight, for all the reasons on might expect such as a new adjustment that will take the Spurs a game to account for, the desperation of the Mavs jumping on the Spurs early, tight fouls being called which automatically means 15+ ftas for Dirk . . .

So maybe still keeping Bonner in isn't too bad. This could be kind of a throw-away game, let Bonner see if he can find his stroke. Based on his career, he won't, but maybe it happens.

[DarrinS]

-If the Spurs have long-term goals for this playoff run beyond this series, getting this win is vital. With such a short rotation and no more rest days in this series, they need the series to end ASAP to build up enough juice going forward -- especially if the Phoenix Suns are next on the horizon. Even if the Spurs win this series after losing tonight, their chances of winning in the next round drop considerably. For an example, reference how damaging the length of the Hornets series was when it came to trying to beat the Lakers in 2008.

Spent the last night in the team plane, if I recall correctly. That sucked.

[timvp]

Regarding the 3 point shooting, I think you've got to give the mavs a little bit of credit for closing out on the shooters. The Spurs didn't shoot the 3 worth a damn against them in last year's series either. The pattern has gone on long enough to where I don't think it can just be dismissed as a fluke. The mavs can't defend 1 on 1, so emphasizing closing out on the 3's is about the only chance they've got to slow down the Spurs offense.

True. Not only are the Mavs closing out well, the fact that they don't double TD when he has his back to the basket allows them not to give up any easy looks from deep.

For the Spurs to get threes, they are going to need TP or Manu to create the looks. The other avenue is to run the ball more and hit the trailer (usually Bonner).

[timvp]

I really think the refs will want to keep the leash on the physical play in the early going. Whichever team can come out attacking the hoop most effectively stands a good chance at forcing foul trouble for the opposing team. It's boring, but shooting free throws is one of a way to shut down a team's fast break attack.

Good point. If the NBA has told the refs to be on high alert, keeping composure will be huge. Paying extra attention to not fouling will be huge.

Also need to hope that the refs let the players play. A tightly officiated game doesn't bode well for us. I'm not sure the Spurs can win a game where the mavs get to the free throw line 30+ times.

Yeah, the Spurs can't win a Salvatore Special against the Mavs. They shoot too well from the line and the rotation isn't deep enough to weather foul trouble.

[DesignatedT]

I expect pop not to overplay duncan and manu in the first half. I see him going with a lot of tony and george to try and keep manu and TD fresh down the stretch. IMO I don't see him playing duncan and manu 40+ minutes and then end up losing the game. He is going to let Tony George and RJ try to keep this thing close going into the 2nd half then he will come in strong with Duncan and Manu down the stretch. Mavs need to try and get up BIG on this spurs team early and if they don't and let the spurs hang around in the 2nd half then i suspect they will be going fishing tonight.

[kjhip1]

I really dont mind the Spurs keeping thier three point shooting down as far as attempts go...I'd rather have them driving and creating FTAs...I think everyone here expects Dirk to off tonight, but I also see Tim having a bounce back game as well. Any kind of production from Bonner or Mason would be graet but I dont see Pop playing them much if the game flows like the previous 2. Its clear the Spurs have found a way to beat the Mavs. In two games the Spurs have been horrible in thier shooting but are still finding a way to beat a good team (#2 Seed). Alot has to do with the way JKidd has been ineffective and the way Caron Butler/Shwan Marion have been playing...I was glad to see Josh Howard leave because he was alwasy the one that gave the Spurs fits. Yes the jet goes off on us too but it was the combonation of Dirk, Howard, and Terry that beat us last year...The key to the game will be the 1st Quarter and how we can set the tone...The Mavs will have alot of energy in the first half...we have to be able to weather the storm and set them up going into the 3rd and 4th quarter...I believe the winner of this game will ultimately be the team that can finish strong at the end of the quarters...Granted the Spurs should win tonight and get some much needed rest.

[EVAY]

Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. If we do often and do it well, we win. It stops the Mavs' transition offense and increases the likelihood that they will foul us.

One other thing...Timmy on the post. In the last two games Tim was kept out of his comfort spot for catching the ball in the post and wouldn't/couldn't back down far enough to shoot from his makeable spots. If he can make his bank shot go in, he can avoid this problem.

[timvp]

IMO Bonner's problem is that he's too motivated. He's not out there dogging it. He tries hard. I think he's just putting too much pressure on himself.

Agreed. Bonner is best when he's not thinking. In the playoffs, it may be impossible for him to turn of his brain. Maybe if he has a huge game in the postseason that could change things ... but I doubt it is a quick fix.

Yeah, when Tony Parker left Terry open for 3 in the corner late in game 4 I almost broke my coffee table. IMHO we can't leave Terry/Kidd/Dirk open for three, but everyone else let em fly.

Watching it live, I was wonder WTF TP was doing. But going back and re-watching the game, the threes more understandable. On Terry's first three, Hill was guarding him and when he rotated to an open Kidd, the next rotation (which was suppoed to be TD) was late. On the second Terry three-pointer, TP left him in the opposite corner when Nowitzki was doubled ... but it was a poor double so Dirk was able to turn around and hit Terry with a crosscourt pass. On the Terry's third three, TP was forced to pickup Haywood in transition and no-one picked up Terry. When Terry caught the ball, TP ran at him but it was too late.

So on those three plays, there weren't any massive breakdowns ... as it appeared live.

The Spurs are gonna struggle with 3-point shooting no matter the opponent IMO..while the team has fixed the other flaws that we've seen all season, the 3-point shooting has now become an unexpected flaw..personally, I like that this team isn't relying as much on 3s, but they're gonna have to start making them at some point..

Yeah, it seems like forever that Spurs fans have had to worry about three-point shooting. But this team is just not very good at shooting from deep. Hill is good from the corners but that is about it. Ginobili is streaky so you can't count on him to be hitting every game. Bonner and Mason shrink in the playoffs. RJ can't hit threes anymore.

It's amazing that the Spurs have gone from live-or-die by the three ... to not being able to live on the three. Now, whether or not that is a good or bad thing is debatable.

[Walton Buys Off Me]

Matt Bonner and playoff basketball go together like Eliot Spitzer and a room full of hookers- not a good combo.

The Red Rocket's 'performance' over the last two games should remind Pop that he belongs nowhere near the basketball court unless we're up or down by 30.

As long as Duncan or McDyess is on the floor, I'm ok going small for short stretches.

It beats watching Bonner brick open three after open three.

[kjhip1]

Agreed. Bonner is best when he's not thinking. In the playoffs, it may be impossible for him to turn of his brain. Maybe if he has a huge game in the postseason that could change things ... but I doubt it is a quick fix.



Watching it live, I was wonder WTF TP was doing. But going back and re-watching the game, the threes more understandable. On Terry's first three, Hill was guarding him and when he rotated to an open Kidd, the next rotation (which was suppoed to be TD) was late. On the second Terry three-pointer, TP left him in the opposite corner when Nowitzki was doubled ... but it was a poor double so Dirk was able to turn around and hit Terry with a crosscourt pass. On the Terry's third three, TP was forced to pickup Haywood in transition and no-one picked up Terry. When Terry caught the ball, TP ran at him but it was too late.

So on those three plays, there weren't any massive breakdowns ... as it appeared live.



Yeah, it seems like forever that Spurs fans have had to worry about three-point shooting. But this team is just not very good at shooting from deep. Hill is good from the corners but that is about it. Ginobili is streaky so you can't count on him to be hitting every game. Bonner and Mason shrink in the playoffs. RJ can't hit threes anymore.

It's amazing that the Spurs have gone from live-or-die by the three ... to not being able to live on the three. Now, whether or not that is a good or bad thing is debatable.

+1

I agree that the Spurs look like a team that now doesn't have to rely on the 3 ball...I just wonder how much better this team would be if Bonner and Mason could hit with some consistency..

[OldSilentHill]

IMHO...............we have to figure how to make an even game during the 1st Half while not overplaying Duncan, Manu, Parker and Hill or at least spending equally amount of minutes on them.

After that, put THE BEST on the court for ALMOST THE WHOLE 2nd Half: Big 3 + Hill + Blair or McDysse.

If we can do that or similar, we´ll get this. That line up will receive more respect from the refs in 3rd and 4th Q, when the amazing happens.

[Spurs Brazil]

1 - Keep Dallas away from a good start. Let's hope we see that low and ugly scoring quarter to keep them second guessing.

2 - Rebound

3 - Play smart and don't foul. I don't think the refs will let them play like the last 2 games so we must play smart

[DesignatedT]

Gotta keep this game close in the 1st half. Going to need a big first half from Tony and Hill since i suspect pop wont overplay duncan and manu to try and keep them fresh down the stretch. Mavericks are going to have to blow this game wide open if they want to win (and thats possible) but if this game is close coming down the stretch then i expect the mavs to be fishing tonight.

[DPG21920]

Spurs need to look for Blair when it comes to depth up front, not Bonner.

[HarlemHeat37]

Spurs need to look for Blair when it comes to depth up front, not Bonner.

Depth up front isn't 1 guy..they need both..our bigs aren't good enough to run a 3-man rotation IMO..

[TD 21]

-If the Spurs have long-term goals for this playoff run beyond this series, getting this win is vital. With such a short rotation and no more rest days in this series, they need the series to end ASAP to build up enough juice going forward -- especially if the Phoenix Suns are next on the horizon. Even if the Spurs win this series after losing tonight, their chances of winning in the next round drop considerably. For an example, reference how damaging the length of the Hornets series was when it came to trying to beat the Lakers in 2008.

-How is Pop going to handle the rotation with regards to Matt Bonner? Bonner was held out of the rotation in the second half of Game 4 in favor of Jefferson at power forward. We know that Bonner is a choker, but I'd prefer Pop giving him first crack as the backup power forward over Jefferson. First of all, the rotation is short enough as it is. Secondly, utilizing small ball against the Mavs is like lighting up a cigarette next to a pool of gasoline. Give Bonner a chance and pray to the man or woman you pray to that he accidentally does a few things correctly.

-Nowitzki having a giant game is a given. I'd be shocked if he's not pushing 40 points by the time the final buzzer is sounding. Since Nowitkzi exploding is expected, Jason Kidd needs to continue to be a focal point. The Spurs have to pressure him and then run him off the three-point line as much as possible. Caron Butler remains the x-factor. When he's rolling, the Mavs have been at their best. Keep him questioning himself by putting him in difficult situations (fronting him, doubling him, etc.) and the Spurs should have success.

I wouldn't go that far. It would be huge, but vital? They could still win it in game six and get plenty of rest. If there is one, game six (I'm fairly sure) will be the same night that the Suns-Trail Blazers play game six. Say both the Spurs and Suns win, they'll get equal rest. If the Trail Blazers win and the Spurs win, the Spurs will get more rest than the Suns (I presume they'll win their series).

Completely agree. Even though I expect another nervous performance out of Bonner, like I keep saying, shouldn't he by law of averages be due for a good shooting game under pressure? The guy is a career 40% three point shooter. Choker or not, at least one time he should have a game where he shoots the lights out. If/when he does, it'll probably coincide with a game where the Spurs are getting blown out. At this point, I can't even imagine this guy making shots in a tight game. "Accidentally does a few things correctly". Nice line.

Agreed. The big thing (and this is probably unavoidable) is for McDyess to avoid foul trouble, particularly early. Unfortunately, I think the opposite will happen. If he can just stay on the court for 30 plus minutes against Nowitzki, then I'm fine with this match-up and with the Spurs constant changing defense against him. He'll still get his, but at least he'll have to sweat for them and hopefully be at least somewhat worn down by the fourth.

Nowitzki getting his is no longer a killer, because it's the Spurs who now have the better one-on-one scorers between these two teams, yet they still have the better defense. In a half court game where the "other' Mavs are forced to create and generate, say 50-60 points to win, I like the Spurs chances.

[Capt Bringdown]

Matt Bonner and playoff basketball go together like Eliot Spitzer and a room full of hookers- not a good combo.

Not the best analogy. "Not a good combo?" For who? Certainly a good combo for the hookers and Eliot.

Not good for the church lady and other moralising prigs?

[Whisky Dog]

Keys to the game?

1) Same old Same old - Rebounding, transition defense, limiting turnovers, clean, hard, smart rotations on defense. Rotate hard to 3 pt shooters without over committing and fouling or flying by and giving up an open lane to the basket.

2)Bring the Role to the Road - Imperative that Hill, Jefferson, Blair, and Dice take that energy and execution back on the road away from the friendly zone. Role players usually play better at home so you can bet Terry and those guys will bring it so Spurs role players have to match.

[Walton Buys Off Me]

Not the best analogy. "Not a good combo?" For who? Certainly a good combo for the hookers and Eliot.

Not good for the church lady and other moralising prigs?

Do you know who Spitzer is?

Former Governor of New York- had to give it up in the wake of the exposure of his involvement as a client in a high-priced pros ution ring.....

[polandprzem]

We have terrible offense

p&r's are pathetic - dallas closes every single passing lane
ball movement is disturbed by mavs, can't get the flow go -> leads to turnovers -> leads to fastbreaks by dallas -> leads to kickass
SHOOTING - absolutely non-existen. Manu is invisible, he has no confidence in treys [and his offense (drives) after that nose as well]

Spurs blew it