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Jefferson wouldn't opt-out if Spurs didn't promise him a 4 years and 32 million contract. I think it's a fair deal for both. He takes the big pay cut and we're giving him a chance.
I wouldn't mind a 4 years 32 M contract for him.
Seems like everyone's saying they're ok with this if RJ comes back at $24M/3 yrs. Why would he do that? He was scheduled to make $15.2M this year, meaning he opted out because he didn't think next summer he could get a 2 year deal for $9M?
This is all speculation, and difficult speculation at that because nobody knows what will happen next year with the CBA, but here's my take:
First, you have to consider what RJ would earn if he hadn't opted out. Reasonable guess is he'd put together a decent season with more experience in Pop's system and garner at least a 3 year deal for the MLE. That's less than Marion, and roughly what McDyess pulled in. Add his $15.2M to roughly $17M and you get $32.2M over 4 years.
So opting out means he thinks he can find a better contract that $32.2M/4 yrs, or more than $8M a year. Let's say he's willing to take $8M a year because it's guaranteed this week as opposed to having to see how things play out next summer.
If RJ plays next season (and the three following) for $8M, he saves the Spurs $7.2M in salary and $7.2M in tax = $14.4M total this year. How does this savings factor into an equation that commits $32M over 4 years?
If the Spurs can get an average starting SF for $5M/yr they'd be paying market rate. For the 4 year life of his contract, in the first year the Spurs come out ahead $14.4M, and in the three remaining years, they'd be paying $3M over the market rate of $5M, or down a total of $9M. This means they would still be ahead $14.4M - $9M = $5.4M.
Two questions remain:
Will RJ be an average SF? Likely, though hopefully better.
Will the Spurs be willing to settle for an average SF that saves them $5.4M over market rate? Likely, as their other options are very limited. Trading RJ with a full contract is much harder than expiring. The only kind of trade that makes sense would be for someone like Turkoglu: RJ gets enough money to make opting out sensible; Toronto's willing to take him on with full contract because of a need to dump Turkoglu; the Spurs hope Turk fits better as an outside threat and ball-handler, unfortunately committed to his long-term deal.
Jefferson wouldn't opt-out if Spurs didn't promise him a 4 years and 32 million contract. I think it's a fair deal for both. He takes the big pay cut and we're giving him a chance.
I wouldn't mind a 4 years 32 M contract for him.
SpursTillTheEnd?
Apparently not.
I think he'll probably sign a 4 year deal with the Spurs, if not elsewhere. This guarantees him for the future. I'd like to think he will sign a 4 year at around 30million or a bit more and guarantee his future.
He won't have to worry about a contract next season, or any possible injury that could hurt his future. You never know with injuries or what could happen to you.
My guess is that RJ realizes his market value is no where near $15 million or more right now so he may be interested in a longer term contract with the Spurs for less money.
We could probably see a little bit better play from him this coming year since he knows our system and the coaches know better how to use him. He's not totally useless and what other SF options are out there that are any better.?
A case of "better the devil you know" for both sides. So this could be a true story.
Gooden's a 28 yr old big that had a solid season(considering what was expected of him).
RJ's a 30 year old wing that just had ther worst season of his career.
I posted this in the other RJ thread, but it seems appropriate for some of the responses here. Richard Jefferson's response/mindset on opting out:
Coming off such a disappointing season, Jefferson likely won't be able to earn all of the money he left on the table back in a single season, but as he told FanHouse's Chris Tomasson in April, he hopes a temporary pay cut will result in long-term security. "I probably wouldn't make 15 [million dollars] some place, but you could somehow recoup some of that over a multi-year deal and get some guaranteed money for the next few years," he said. "So you figure it out. If you're able to get four years and 40 [million dollars by opting out] from someone, it's like, 'OK, I did lose out on 15 [million dollars]. But I'm going to get basically a $25 million extension.' Those are things that you think of at the end of the season.'' FanHouse.com
RJ for 40 million over 4 years? God no. Way too much for a guy that can't shoot or play defense.
That was his asking price in a public interview in April. If he has a prearranged deal with the Spurs, it will be for less than that.
Last edited by Mel_13; 07-01-2010 at 10:08 AM.
If the Spurs re-sign him, need to make it a declining contract, pay more now, since we're over the cap anyways.
4 year deal: 9-8-7-6 mil
Exactly. His generally poor statistics would make anyone hesitant to make him such an offer next summer especially with a max contract rumored to be in the 8 million dollar range.
He might command somewhere between 2-3 million per under the new scale (assuming another season roughly similar to this one).
I'm guessing this will be a sign and trade scenario anyway. I hope so. It would benefit both sides in my view but someone has to be willing to take Rj for the price and the Spurs need to get back a good Sf hopefully with length who can defend and shoot the 3
You guys seem to be missing the part where multiple sources confirmed RJ and Pop have been working out together in SA. That's a clear sign the Spurs want him back if true.
But what if RJ insists on 4 yrs/$40M and the Spurs aren't willing to budge from, say, 4 yrs/$30M? Sure, the Spurs know that RJ is a better SF than any FA in the Spurs' price range, but they won't pay him anything he asks for.
If the Spurs are willing to do, say, a 4 yr/$31M contract (7, 7.5, 8, 8.5), I'd like to see the Spurs add a 5th fully non-guaranteed year on the end (for 9) like the Mavs did with Dampier; that would be a great asset for trading in 4 years.
Salmons just got a $40 million deal. The chances of getting RJ on the cheap are sinking.
That's a clear sign that the Spurs thought for sure that he'd be back in this upcoming season, for a last run at a championship. Pop's working with him is no evidence they wanted him long term.
From which team?
One small (maybe not) thing that is a factor too is that RJ is his agent's only NBA player - so he's going to want to bank as much as he can off RJ. His agent is Todd Eley, who is not a top tier agent, and only has RJ and a bunch of DLeague/Euro/fringe players (like my friend).
To get a deal like that elsewhere, RJ will have to find a team with cap space that wants him. Spurs can then negotiate an S&T that brings back a huge TE.
Wow... seller's market.
Dumb question here, since RJ opted out, we don't have bird rights, do we? Or do we? lol
We do, but RJ would have to agree to any sign-and-trades. Sadly, he holds all the power right now.
That team also inked Gooden to a big contract. Use the crazy argument again spurs!
Bucks
dirk at the LLE would be surprising.I said I couldn't tell but I can guarantee its not Shaq.
Don't worry about confirming i don't want you to lose your source
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