Earl

[PakiDan]

goku could do what this thing is doing by just going kaioken.

kami hami haaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!

[JudynTX]

How bad will Maine get hit?

[benefactor]

The GFS is now putting Earl over Cape Hatteras, NC, then moving right off the coast of Long Island!

This would be an absolute worst case scenario for the East Coast. Damage would likely run well into the billions and would give Earl a real chance to be a top 5 hurricane as far as damage goes.

Man you guys are doom and gloom.

I'm not sure what GFS model you are looking at, but the GFS ensemble model from 10 AM is still showing Earl well off the coast. NHC wind probabilities are around 20% for hurricane force winds at Cape Hatteras and less than 10% at Montauk Point, which is at the very tip of Long Island. With most of the hurricane force winds offshore, surge becomes less of an issue also. The lack of these two things make the storm less worrisome from a disaster standpoint.

All in all I think it will be what I said earlier...TS force winds for 12-15 hours for most locations with a few hurricane force gusts and a lot of rain. There will be damage and people in places like Cape Hatteras and Montauk Point would be wise to move further inland, but I don't see it being cataclysmic.

[benefactor]

What I hate about people and forecast models is how they focus on the line. This is the reason why the NHC removed the center line from their cones in the recent past. The storm isn't a small feature - its pretty large to either side of that line. Also, those forecasts and models have margins of error. As we get down to within a few days it drops to about 200 miles but when the model is predicting the storm to be within 50 miles of the coast then you can see why that is pretty much forecasting a hit.

Earl should still be pretty problematic though. Anyone living within 50ish miles of the coast should probably consider heading further inland. Earl still has hurricane force winds that extend 90 miles out from the center and tropical strom force winds that extend 200 miles out. At the very least much of the EC could see 12 - 15 hours worth of TS force winds and lot of flooding from the rain.

[Cry Havoc]

Man you guys are doom and gloom.

I'm not sure what GFS model you are looking at, but the GFS ensemble model from 10 AM is still showing Earl well off the coast. NHC wind probabilities are around 20% for hurricane force winds at Cape Hatteras and less than 10% at Montauk Point, which is at the very tip of Long Island. With most of the hurricane force winds offshore, surge becomes less of an issue also. The lack of these two things make the storm less worrisome from a disaster standpoint.

All in all I think it will be what I said earlier...TS force winds for 12-15 hours for most locations with a few hurricane force gusts and a lot of rain. There will be damage and people in places like Cape Hatteras and Montauk Point would be wise to move further inland, but I don't see it being cataclysmic.

They've already started posting hurricane warnings, which means conditions will likely be worse than TS force.

I was a bit hasty in my early assessment, but it still remains a large threat to the entire Eastern seaboard.

[Cry Havoc]

This is really cool.

Live footage of the beach at Kill Devil Hills in NC.

http://beachcam.kdhnc.com/view/index.shtml

[MannyIsGod]

the GFS is less than a 100 miles from the OB - that really isn't "well off" the coast which was my point. It is basically even money as to whether or not the eye goes over any portion of that 100 miles.

[MannyIsGod]

In any event, the models aren't whats worth watching anymore. Its going to go somewhere near that coast. You should watch the water vapor looks and track the trough in the center of the nation to see how fast it moves eastward. Thats what is really going to matter.

[benefactor]

They've already started posting hurricane warnings, which means conditions will likely be worse than TS force.

I was a bit hasty in my early assessment, but it still remains a large threat to the entire Eastern seaboard.

Oh I agree that the EC is probably going to take a pretty good lashing, but nothing like Ike running into Bolivar or anything like that.

[Cry Havoc]

[benefactor]

In any event, the models aren't whats worth watching anymore. Its going to go somewhere near that coast. You should watch the water vapor looks and track the trough in the center of the nation to see how fast it moves eastward. Thats what is really going to matter.

NOAA water vapor loop for those interested:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv-s.html

[MannyIsGod]

Oh I agree that the EC is probably going to take a pretty good lashing, but nothing like Ike running into Bolivar or anything like that.

It was never going to be that bad in the sense that no area is going to get damaged that much. That being said the east coast is lined up and down with expensive property and it wouldn't take much to have a lot of damage and a high financial number if it rakes the east coast or some of the more valuable beach fronts.

I'd hate to see the insurance costs if this thing goes through the cape cod area as a major.

[Cry Havoc]

It was never going to be that bad in the sense that no area is going to get damaged that much. That being said the east coast is lined up and down with expensive property and it wouldn't take much to have a lot of damage and a high financial number if it rakes the east coast or some of the more valuable beach fronts.

I'd hate to see the insurance costs if this thing goes through the cape cod area as a major.

Exactly, that's what I was thinking when I initially posted. Lots of areas along the coast are extremely close to sea level... a surge of just 10 feet would be catastrophic.

[MannyIsGod]

NOAA water vapor loop for those interested:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv-s.html

I was thinking more like this and don't zoom just animate that image. The trough in the center of the country is the most important thing to watch. Its not moving very fast.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Cry Havoc]

I just got an unconfirmed report of a surface pressure of 929 mb. This would put him very close to Category 5 status, well in excess the min required for a cat 4 storm.

[Cry Havoc]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...d.html#a_topad

Confirmed by hurricane hunters. 929. Earl will likely be soon reclassified as a Cat 4 as his wind field responds to the pressure difference.

[MannyIsGod]

Weird, there aren't any new vortex messages. We'll see if we get one soon.

[Cry Havoc]

Weird, there aren't any new vortex messages. We'll see if we get one soon.

Apparently wunderground is data sets from the 31st.

Central pressure probably still around 940 mb, although that 138kt sustained flight level winds is accurate.

[MannyIsGod]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

That always has the latest HH stuff. I don't think there's a mission in Earl right now.

[MannyIsGod]

Those winds are odd because the pressure hasn't dropped and the eye temperature differential is only 5 degrees C so thats not an indicator of a strong storm.

[MannyIsGod]

Latest NHC forecast track puts Earl right on the OB and then making a Cape Cod landfall as well. They also reupped him to a Cat 4.

[JudynTX]

I love Ustream. These guys are looking for Earl.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com

[benefactor]

The sheer from the southwest that was predicted to affect Earl through Friday has dropped by 10 knots in the past 24hrs. That's the likely reason for Earl intensifying some. According to SHIPS intensity forecasts it shouldn't drop much more below that.

What a good looking storm...



Let's hope he keeps pushing east.

[Cry Havoc]

Earl is powering up. He looks like a MONSTER bearing down on the East coast. What a scary IR image, benefactor.

[Cry Havoc]

Manny, benefactor, you think he's got a shot at Cat 5? The waters where he is are warm enough to support it....