Bill-
Sorry I took a while to get to these questions. You're a smart guy and probably know as much as I do when it comes to these scenarios. The fact that Texas just offered ATH Daniel Brooks of Rockdale because of his multi-faceted game and RB DJ Monroe being the name that Harsin/Applewhite have mentioned multiple times this offseason tells me that RB Dontre Wilson will be getting an offer in February. He's capable of doing mutiple things for a football team and he's a DeSoto product. Those guys come out of the birth canal flashing the "Hook 'Em."
As far as a pure RB, I'm confident saying RB James White of Pearland Dawson is #1 on the recruiting board right now and the staff surely scored some points yesterday with the commitment of OL Kennedy Estelle, but you never know who will pop on the scene at any given time (much like RB Trey Williams did last summer). I take comfort in the fact Major Applewhite lives to evaluate and Bryan Harsin knows what he wants for his offense, so you can be assured that they will have covered everyone once it comes to time to make an offer.
I don't think there's a definitive answer for either position because the staff's course of action will depend on the decisions of certain prospects. For example, we all knew that the staff was targeting one QB and one RB for the 2012 class; nothing more and nothing less. Once they got commitments from their targets, things were shut down at those respective positions. It was pretty clear cut. For OL and DB, timing will obviously be a huge factor in determining what the numbers look like in the end.
To elaborate...I think this weekend is big for the OL. If OL Tre'Von Armstead of Port Arthur Memorial shows up to J12 like he plans, it's very possible he gets offered. He's been the Michael Starts back-up plan for a few weeks now. If he gets offered and farts around for a while or ends up being a no-show this weekend, the staff could say "screw it" and decide to go balls out for OL Andrus Peat and OL John Theus until the very end hoping that they land one of the two. If they're getting negative vibes by the time the season starts then they can revisit the lower hanging fruit at that time. What happens with Armstead will determine the final number on the OL, IMO. I don't think Searels likes Brantley or Myers enough to offer. More contact with a guy like OL Kyle Fuller of Wylie could really change things as well, but he'll hurt his chances if he doesn't make it to campus this summer.
For the DBs, I think UT is looking for two more. If you get a commitment from a guy like DB Geno Smith before the season starts, that number could change. Another scenario is UT misses on Smith, offers DB Justin Thomas and he commits on the spot. What if ATH Kendall Sanders finally comes around on the idea of playing DB and wants to punch his ticket as well? Are you going to tell him no? That's two right there. What if ATH Nelson Agholor is still on the table at that time? You simply can't stop recruiting a game-changing five-star like that. If by some divine intervention he picks Texas, that bumps you up to three. I know I'm rambling but as you can see it can go about umpteen different ways right now as every prospect has their own timetable and decisions to make which will ultimately affect everyone else (see Westerman vs. Hegarty, 2011).
