Spurs now rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/.../NBA_2012.html
The problem is that with Blair on the court, the Spurs are grabbing just ~73% of available defensive rebounds. That would be good for 20th in the league. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs are far and away the best defensive rebounding team in the league.
P.S.
The stats aren't available anywhere but I wouldn't surprised if the Spurs grab >80% of defensive rebounds when Leonard and Green are on the court at the same time. Those two combined gobble up any rebounds the bigs don't get.
The stat I'm going by is percentage of available rebounds, which shouldn't be impacted by made shots. But yeah, the opposition tends to make more shots with Blair on the court.
Blair is running the court more this year but the situation you described would effect offensive rebounds.
Is the source for your data available for free? I'd love to play around with numbers that provide that level of detail.
If not, than a question. What are the team numbers with Blair on the court since KL was moved into the starting line-up?
Btw, I'm not looking to prove that everything with Blair is ok. Far from it. Rather that we're dealing with small sample sizes and a large number of potential explanations. After all, the early numbers also suggest that TD has become a below average to poor offensive rebounder.
Good point. Last year, 20% of Blair's minutes came with Bonner next to him. This year, 10% of his minutes are with Bonner.
But Bonner is averaging more defensive rebounds per minute than Blair this season ... so, when they are on the court together, Bonner likely grabbing more rebounds than Bonner.
It probably is the case. However, the stats show that the Spurs aren't cleaning the defensive glass with Blair on the court. Until that changes, it will be a red flag to me.
If eventually the Spurs start rebounding the same with Blair on the court as Blair off the court due to others covering for him, I'll be satisfied with a lower defensive rebounding rate for Blair. Until then, it's hurting the team and it's a bad sign for Blair in addition to making him less valuable overall.
I've noticed that Blair is also being used more as a "box out" component on the defensive end thus helping others to establish better position for a rebound.
Interesting stat as well...
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/play...efg-percentage
Blair is only second to Richard Jefferson in FG Efficiency% on this team.
SPURS should consider trading him this offseason to get a better draft pick to draft a protocol big man. Investing in him long term is just too risky.
Good post. However, the "not in good shape" argument is hurt by the fact that when Blair ballooned up to 300+ pounds last season, his defensive rebounding numbers didn't suffer. I can't imagine he's in worse shape right now than when he was when driving circles around his local Whataburger.
Hopefully you are right. Taking a slightly different angle, one possibility is that the condensed schedule isn't allowing for sufficient rest for his knees. Blair deals with a lot of swelling after each game in both knees due to his lack of ACLs so maybe he needs more rest than most young players.
We'll have to wait to draw any conclusions until the middle of next season. That said, I'd by lying if I said I'm confident Blair's defensive rebounding decline isn't due to his lack of ACLs bringing an early decline to his athleticism.
The source is 82games.com player pages. The info doesn't take into account the last two games in which the Spurs grabbed 80% of available defensive rebounds, so it'll be interesting to see what the numbers look like in the next update.
An extra bonus of adding Leonard to the starting lineup is that he can get the rebounds that Blair doesn't get anymore (for whatever reasons). If it gets to the point that Blair's lack of defensive rebounding doesn't effect the team, I'll be satisfied and I will be able to buy that perhaps the decline is somewhat related to a tactical shift.
With Duncan playing high post this year, I expect a pretty big drop in his offensive rebounding numbers. Probably not as large of a drop that has played out so far but he'll no doubt be worse than ever in that category.
Thanks.
Timvp. Goods. Synonymous.
Blair is too offense happy (and who can blame him when Pop doesn't stress defense). He's actually a bit better this year than last year. Then it seemed like whenever he got it he was going to shoot no matter what hail Mary, wing and a prayer he was tossing toward the basket.
The graphs from TIMVP's thread on defense are just depressing. Splitter had the least big man minutes yesterday and Bonner/Blair combined for 48:37. No wonder Spurs are at the bottom of the league in all those defensive stats. It's ridiculous to shoot over 64% and lose a game. Why won't Pop play the big man with most size and upside?
The most disturbing part is ppl are satisfied with Tim Duncan playing out the last few years of his career with a guy who leads the league in opponents' average PER. Cuz, you know, it's too much of a risk to pair him with the other liability on the team named Bonner.Blair is too offense happy (and who can blame him when Pop doesn't stress defense). He's actually a bit better this year than last year. Then it seemed like whenever he got it he was going to shoot no matter what hail Mary, wing and a prayer he was tossing toward the basket.
The graphs from TIMVP's thread on defense are just depressing. Splitter had the least big man minutes yesterday and Bonner/Blair combined for 48:37. No wonder Spurs are at the bottom of the league in all those defensive stats. It's ridiculous to shoot over 64% and lose a game. Why won't Pop play the big man with most size and upside
Wow. I had no idea we were that good. We have come a long way since 06-09 when rebounding was a severe weakness. Surely, our rebounding is a great sign for this teams playoff hope. Been a very interesting season to follow.
NBA rank in team defensive rebounding percentage:
05-06: 8th
06-07: 3rd
07-08: 1st
08-09: 1st
Well on me. Coulda fooled me the way the, mavericks dominated us on the boards
I think most Spurs fans assumed he might only last us a few good years. Anything after that is a bonus.
But as far as his steady decline on the boards, I figured it was nothing more than having made the rounds and getting more attention. I think his first year every team he played against got torched (per minute) by him on the boards. At the very least, I think he made an impression on most teams and now gets game-planned against.
I forgot who said it the other night, regarding Danny Green, after Green had a great night. The opponent said something like "We didn't know who Danny Green was." And kind of hinted that, "We'll know next time."
I think this is all this is. Young guys come in, all kinds of talent, and catch teams by surprise. Then they figure out how to take away your strengths and you have to fight through it and work hard to find other ways to get it done.
As far as his work, to me it seems like Blair has put a lot of emphasis on his offensive game lately. He might take his rebounding prowess for granted while teams get better at limiting him there. That might be contributing to this decline too.
That stat really jumped out. That doesn't seem to be something you could explain except that Blair isn't getting it done on the glass.
Still, I had the Portland game recorded, so just for laughs I watched the whole thing for the plays where Blair was on defense. His rebounding, in and of itself, didn't look that bad. But I did notice that he spent a lot of time away from the basket, on Aldridge, and that he switched several p&r's that left him out of position for rebounding. There were a few plays, though, where it looked like he was content to just stand and watch.
So I thought, hey - the big problem with Blair missing defensive boards would be if the opponents are getting offensive boards, right?. (Maybe not the only problem, but the one that hurts the score.) Because if Blair misses a defensive rebound opportunity to a teammate, that's not such a bad thing. That made me wonder: of the offensive boards that the opponents are getting, what percentage are they getting with Blair in the game?
I went back 5 games worth of play-by-plays. (Then I had to take a break.) But here's what they showed.
Phoenix: Blair was in 66% of the time. The Suns got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Portland: Blair was in 58% of the time. Portland got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Houston: Blair was in 33% of the time. Houston got 20% of their offensive boards while he was in. (3/15)
Milwaukee: Blair was in 50% of the time. Bucks got 71% of their offensive boards while he was in. (*5/7)
OKC: Blair was in 38% of the time. OKC got 29% of their offensive boards while he was in. (2/7)
*Against Milwaukee, the Bucks got 3 offensive boards on a single play. One of those maddening episodes where the Spurs just can't corral the ball, and the other team keeps missing the putbacks. The rest of the time, Blair really wasn't missing out on an excessive number of available defensive boards.
Between watching the one game, and looking at all five play-by-plays, here are a few things that stood out about Blair's rebounding:
1. Blair just loses focus from time to time. Sometimes he doesn't go after a rebound when it looks like a teammate has it corralled, or when it looks like an "obvious" made shot by the opponent. Then when the ball bounces out, he's standing in no man's land, watching. Those are the real problem cases.
2. A lot of the offensive boards given up when Blair is in the game happen right near the end of quarters, and during garbage time. It looks to me like Blair has already mentally gone to sit down, rather than finishing strong. When you're dealing with relatively small samples, a few plays like that can really skew the numbers. I didn't see any of them that actually hurt the Spurs, but that doesn't matter.
3. It looks to me like he's spending a lot more time this year defending guys like Scola and Aldridge, away from the basket. Sometimes he's out of rebounding position because of bad defense earlier in the play. Sometimes he legitimately can't get back, and those boards are the responsibility of his teammates. Blair's rebounding depends on being under the basket and rooting for position. When he's away from the basket and trying to crash inward, the taller guy is going to get it a lot more often.
Bottom line - I don't think the problem with Blair rebounding is his knees. It's his head. Partly because his head isn't in some plays, and partly because his head is too close to the ground. I'm sure his teammates are covering up for some of his off plays. But for the most part, the Spurs' opponents aren't getting extra offensive boards when Blair is in the game vs. when he is out.
I don't know if it looks different, further back. My eyes are bleeding from combing through five play-by-plays. One thing I do wonder about the stats on 82 games is what all they include - small samples and all that. For instance, a shot blocked by Tim that goes to an opposing player counts as a missed shot, and an offensive rebound for the opponents. A desperation shot that clanks off the iron at the last second counts as a missed shot and a missed defensive rebound opportunity. (Nobody gets a rebound.)
I know it goes against perception, but (for 5 games at least) the Spurs' opponents really aren't getting as many offensive boards with Blair in the game vs. with him out. Maybe he should still be getting more boards, and maybe his teammates covered for him. But Blair's rebounding doesn't seem to be killing the Spurs' point differential. At least not lately.
Appreciate the work you did sifting through the PBP, GSH. Maybe it's not Blair's fault the spurs are a worse defensive rebounding team when he's in. A few anomalies can skew the data this early on. I think another look at the data later on in the season would be more telling.
I do however think the fact that opponents are averaging the highest PER in the league against him specifically is 100X more disturbing than a few missed rebounds.
That's why finding another rotation big is so important. It gets Blair out of the starting lineup. He's not starting material on a championship team.
We got sick of the weak-assed curriculum, so I'm home-schooling two kids. When I'm not doing any consulting work, I have time on my hands.
Also, the only time I drink coffee is when the weather gets cold. Recently, the weather's been cold.
Put those two things together, and I'm a freaking research machine.
Has anyone mentioned how maybe, Blair's weight loss had led to the defensive rebounding drop off? Maybe he is getting pushed around, more and has trouble maintaining position at his new weight
Oh... I didn't know this.
During the Heat game I noticed that a couple of times Blair had good position for defensive rebounding, but tipped the ball up in the air. Taller players with hops--notably Chris Bosh--simply went up and over him for the ball.
You can't always overcome a height disadvantage, even with good inside position.
The latest numbers are in ... and they aren't encouraging for DeJuan Blair and his ability to grab defensive rebounds. When Blair is on the court, the Spurs are 5.6% less likely to grab a defensive rebound. To put it in context, only the Magic defensive rebound the ball better than the Spurs when Blair is on the bench. When Blair is on the court, 16 teams in the league grab defensive rebounds at a higher rate than the Spurs.
And this update isn't even counting the Magic game. In the 17 minutes Blair was on the court, the Magic grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. In the 36 minutes Blair was on the bench, the Magic grabbed the same number of offensive boards. Obviously, those numbers look really ugly for Blair.
Subjectively, he was doing an extremely poor job of boxing out against the Magic. As of late, he's personally grabbing more defensive rebounds but it also appears he's giving up even more offensive rebounds. Not a very good development . . .
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