Let's Talk Rebuilding

[8FOR!3]

That was the rumor but it didn't make Spurs fans hate it any less. Fast forward to today and the Spurs could frame a Ginobili trade however they want but your average Spurs fan will be tempted to disown the Spurs.

I'd be pissed if we traded Duncan or Ginobili. And at this point, wouldn't be too thrilled with the idea of trading Parker.

[benefactor]

Great discussion with lots of good thoughts. Sometime last year I converted to this same line of thinking. I used to loathe the idea of watching aging players try to do something we all know they can't do and holding on to them while a new team could be being built. Now I am much more at peace and I've decided to sit back and enjoy what we have left of the championship core. Getting to see glimpses of those vintage moments from time to time is worth not being a contender anymore...because once they are gone they are gone. The solid infusion of youth has made the transition even easier. As you said...they won't have enough to contend but they will remain a solid team...which is fine with me as someone that has walked the road of Houston pro football.

[GSH]

@Timvp

What about Vaughn? Pop seems to dig him as a great coach in the making?

Vaughn and McDyess will both likely wind up on somebody's coaching staff soon. I had always held out hope that they might hire Robert Horry, but it hasn't happened.

Terry Porter only spent one season as an assistant, before getting a head coaching job. I think any of those three guys could become head coaches in fairly short order.

[ElNono]

Wish I could make a much longer post, but that's gonna only happen when I get back home a week from now and this thread will likely be buried by then.

Basically I'm somewhere in the middle between timvp and baseline. As I said many times before, I'm fine with the farewell tour for Tim and Manu, as long as they want to make it. However, when they're gone, i'm all for scorched earth. Frankly, even if TP and Tiago works, the bar will always be the magic years of the big 4, so I don't really know that wasting time running a bluff will seat as many people for long.

This new CBA also brings some new wrinkles as far as hiring quality FA's is concerned. Take the Clippers. Without looking a their contract situation, I would adventure that eventually they're going to have to pick who to keep, Griffin or a bunch of the surrounding talent (ie: DJ). If the Spurs can position themselves with low enough cap, they could have a shot at some of that talet (I doubt Sterling will willingly pay an oppressive luxury tax)

So the landscape will change in the next few years. Having plenty of cap space will be a valuable asset, and building only through the draft might not be the only possibility.

I wish I could touch on other aspects, but this is as far as I'm gonna go with my cell, seeing I expect a few responses

[Brazil]

Some random thoughts.

- I understand timvp's arguments regarding Tim but sounds odd to me to pay even a legendary figure like Duncan $20M 2 years. Good news I think / hope he won't ask for that much of money.

- I'm in the boat of keeping the big 3 together till the end. Regarding Parker, I think the best thing is to keep him, he is paying IMO a very reasonable amount of money. Of course if a good opportunity is here to trade him, I'm not against. Unlike Manu or Tim I don't think spurs fans will be too emotive (unfortunately) to a parker trade.

- I agree with Elnono on his point on the new cba. Normally, more FAs should be available to pick vs. the current situation. Some big names could be interested to go a team like spurs stable, well organized and respectful of the players.

- The rebuilding will also depend on Pop's future. Pop is maybe more fundamental to the spurs house than even Tim. His departure if not well prepared could be a nightmare for the franchise IMHO.

[baseline bum]

Some random thoughts.

- I understand timvp's arguments regarding Tim but sounds odd to me to pay even a legendary figure like Duncan $20M 2 years. Good news I think / hope he won't ask for that much of money.

They were able to pay Duncan $10 million for years when he was worth $25-$30 million easily, thanks to an owner-friendly 1999 CBA. I wouldn't have any problem whatsoever with him wanting $40 million over 2 years this summer.

[DPG21920]

I would, that would be ridiculous. Good thing is he won't do that.

[Brazil]

They were able to pay Duncan $10 million for years when he was worth $25-$30 million easily, thanks to an owner-friendly 1999 CBA. I wouldn't have any problem whatsoever with him wanting $40 million over 2 years this summer.

I wouldn't have any problem either because it's not my money and as already discussed it's maybe the good decision for the franchise but still $40M 2 years would be a huge financial burden.

[timvp]

I don't understand the hesitancy regarding Duncan's next contract. I mean, Kwame freakin' Brown got a one-year, $7 million this offseason. Kwame. Brown. And there are Spurs fans who would refuse to give Duncan more than $8 million? Ten years from now Duncan would still be better than Kwame Brown.

A fair market value for Duncan going into the offseason, as long as he avoids injury or a major meltdown, could EASILY be $30 million over two years. That's basically equivalent to two Kwame Browns or the final couple years of a typical above average bigman's contract.

If you want to look at it from a statistical angle, Duncan is going to finish this year with around a 9 or 10 WARP (wins above average player). Last summer, players received approximately $2 million per WARP on the open market. So from a purely statistical viewpoint, giving Duncan a two-year, $30 million could very well end up a bargain.

How much has Duncan been worth to the Spurs over the years? $500 million? More? I have absolutely zero problem with writing his next contract.

I understand that Spurs fans hope that the Spurs will have salary cap space to maneuver this summer but to act like Duncan deserves a take-it-or-leave offer from the Spurs is ridiculous, IMO.

[DPG21920]

I don't care what a dumb GM pays Kwame, it makes no sense to pay Tim so much to not contend. If they aren't going to rebuild, at least do enough to give fans some hope of being better than just a first round and done team.

So basically, because it's hard to rebuild you would really be cool going into the next few seasons with no new players because they're capped out and no good picks to aide in a rebuild on the fly? What would be the point of ST if you know it's 1&done with nothing to really get excited about?

[crc21209]

No way in the Spurs low-ball Timmy and offer him a "take it or leave it offer." Anybody who would think that is completely nuts. Without Tim, the Spurs may have 0 championships, and , maybe the Spurs arent even in San Antonio right now. Give the man what he wants, what he deserves...

[The Truth #6]

Tim deserves a lot, I agree. I will say the FO has been very good over the years at getting players to take below market value. Perhaps they'll try to offer three years, with the last year being an obvious retirement year where they try to use his expiring contract and Tim gets some sort of buyout to make up the difference from the other two years on the contract...

[DPG21920]

Luckily, Tim likely won't want to play for a team with no hope since I'm sure he wants to win. I guess I disagree that a guy that's top 6 in all-time salaries is really owed that much. I have no issues paying him 10-12, but 20+? That's just a money grab by the franchise to keep fans in the seat and I'm shocked you're ok with that considering your stance on that very concept earlier.

[timvp]

I don't care what a dumb GM pays Kwame, it makes no sense to pay Tim so much to not contend.

So you only pay players if that player pushes you over some arbitrary "contend" threshold? If the Spurs let Duncan walk and replace him with let's say Batum, they'd be paying him not to contend, by that logic.

You can pay Duncan and still build toward contending via draft day trades, smart free agent signings, stockpiling assets, etc. It's not mutually exclusive, tbh.

If they aren't going to rebuild, at least do enough to give fans some hope of being better than just a first round and done team.

1. The size of Duncan's contract will have little to do with whether the Spurs will advance past the first round in future seasons.

2. The "fans" you speak of would all rather have Duncan stay than leave. Only hardcore Spurs fans that frequent places like ST would possibly be down with the idea of letting TD walk to throw money at a non-elite player.

So basically, because it's hard to rebuild you would really be cool going into the next few seasons with no new players because they're capped out and no good picks to aide in a rebuild on the fly?

Giving Duncan $20 million instead of $10 million doesn't change much of anything in the big picture.

What would be the point of ST if you know it's 1&done with nothing to really get excited about?

So there's no point to being a Spurs fan during their rebuilding years? Newsflash: More than half of NBA fans deal with that scenario each season.

Even in a scorched earth scenario, what is the average time span before becoming a legit championship contender again? 10 years? 15 years? Probably longer.

Putting that on hold for a few seasons to attempt a more gentle transition barely changes anything in the big picture. Who really cares if the rebuilding window goes from 10-15 years to 12-17 years?

[benefactor]

Championship contender or not I'm always excited.

It's my religion.

[timvp]

I have no issues paying him 10-12, but 20+? That's just a money grab by the franchise to keep fans in the seat and I'm shocked you're ok with that considering your stance on that very concept earlier.

I can't imagine I would have ever said that Holt paying Duncan $20 million is wrong because that's a money grab by Holt. In fact, I've never been for offering Duncan an ultimatum. A "take Kwame Brown money or GTFO" idea was never part of a rebuilding plan that originated from this keyboard, tbh.

We'll see what Duncan wants to do this summer. He's been generous with regards to opening up cap space to sign others so he very well may be generous again. But if he wants to be paid fair market value, which very well could be north of $15 million annually, I would be in agreement with the FO accepting such terms.

In 20 years, do you really want to be on the side of the argument that agreed with the idea of letting Tim Duncan walk so the team could throw an offersheet at a Nic Batum or JaVale McGee? That will sound even dumber than the Spurs fans who wanted to let David Robinson walk to throw money at Eddie Robinson or Ron Mercer.

[DPG21920]

That's a strawman. I never said there's no point in being a fan if they're not contending. It's about what I call "The Known". Giving Tim 20M knowing the Spurs are done (another playoff flameout would likely signify that) comes off as an obvious money grab (something you adamantly were against tbh..).

Rebuilding, although not a contender by definition, is different because of the known. I (maybe I'm the minority) would be ok knowing every team has to rebuild because I know they are trying to do something. Im not ok with money grabs knowing full well you're caught in the middle and have nothing to really grasp onto.

Saying the difference in 8-10M and 20M is silly to me because one scenario allows you to add players to the big 3; which then your plan makes sense. What doesn't make sense (to me) is hamstringing yourself with a 2 year, 40 million contract over the next two years just to keep fans in the seats.

How if you sign Tim to a 20M contract do you make trades (with what assets) or stockpile assets or sign FA's with limited money (full MLE brought no one this year).

Letting Tim walk and starting a rebuild isn't as terrible as you make it out to be IMO ( as evidenced by you feeling similar until recently) if you are talking about having very little assets to improve with over the next two years.

How would Tim's 20M not impact how far they go next year? With that 20M, the Spurs are sitting at ~59M in salaries next year (with RJ amnestied)? With a reasonable 8-10, that can be used to add to the team.

[DPG21920]

So you only pay players if that player pushes you over some arbitrary "contend" threshold?

When you are a team that isn't a contender and that player isn't a young building piece for your future, yes I don't believe in that scenario you pay someone 20M a year.

[DPG21920]

I can't imagine I would have ever said that Holt paying Duncan $20 million is wrong because that's a money grab by Holt. In fact, I've never been for offering Duncan an ultimatum. A "take Kwame Brown money or GTFO" idea was never part of a rebuilding plan that originated from this keyboard, tbh.

You said something to the effect of "I hope the FO is trying to contend vs going for a money grab. That's not fair to anyone...)

In 20 years, do you really want to be on the side of the argument that agreed with the idea of letting Tim Duncan walk so the team could throw an offersheet at a Nic Batum or JaVale McGee? That will sound even dumber than the Spurs fans who wanted to let David Robinson walk to throw money at Eddie Robinson or Ron Mercer.

Why is that the only option? If they let Tim walk, I don't see them abandoning their principles and throwing huge cash at guys they aren't high on for the future just to stay mediocre. I think they would go into rebuild mode if Tim walks, not break the bank for McGee.

Would I be furious if they pay Tim 20M a year? No, but I'd be disappointed in all parties for the money grab when they could have pushed to win. To be clear, if the Spurs are going to err, I absolutely want them to err on the side of what i perceive to be over paying Tim. In the end, it would only likely be 2 years and seeing the big 3 play, even with no chance is pretty special. Im saying though I would be disappointed if they didn't do what they could to legitimately work with their limited opportunities to win.

[DPG21920]

You said something to the effect of "I hope the FO is trying to contend vs going for a money grab. That's not fair to anyone

That's a sub-plot that I think isn't being mentioned enough. Duncan likes the Spurs and San Antonio.

But Duncan loves winning.



Yeah, the Spurs are making me creep toward the rebuild-now way of thinking.

Previously, my stance was that as long as you have the Big Three and surround them with somewhat adequate talent, it'd be a mistake to throw that away and rebuild. It's rare that a small market franchise can put together a trio as talented as TD, Manu and TP -- even at this stage of their careers. To blow up the Big Three when there is still a chance at a championship, even if we are talking about a less than 10% chance, would be a mistake and it would be underestimating just how difficult it is for a San Antonio franchise to get as close as they are.

But if the front office and ownership group aren't going to do enough to even surround the Big Three with adequate talent, it doesn't make sense to just go through the motions. Even though the franchise can still make money by selling memories, it's unfair to the Big Three and it makes it more difficult to rebuild going forward.

Don't get me wrong, I'll still enjoy the out of watching the Big Three this year no matter what but I can't support the front office's motives since it would basically just be a money grab.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Duncan gets nearly whatever sum he asks for. The front office would be dumb, and I pissed if we lost Duncan over money issues. I don't know if I would be able to forgive the franchise if that happened.

[letmk]

FYI, Jason Kidd signed $24M/3 years in 2009 at the same age of what Tim will be this summer. And some Spurs fans think paying more than $8M a year to Tim is unacceptable?

[024]

spurs can't really attract a big name free agent to save them. if they just wallow in mediocrity as a borderline playoff team for the next five years, it would really delay the rebuilding process. they'll just keep suffering playoff exits and get worse and worse until finally getting a high lottery pick.

they should just have a fire sale, keep only duncan untouchable, and stock up on lottery picks. then, tank a few years, stock up on talent, and follow the thunder model. the spurs have proven they are adept at drafting good players, imagine what they can do with a high lottery pick.

[timvp]

What doesn't make sense (to me) is hamstringing yourself with a 2 year, 40 million contract over the next two years just to keep fans in the seats.

What I don't understand is why you think a re-signed Duncan doesn't make a contender but a re-signed Duncan + slightly above MLE money makes the Spurs a contender. What is out there that can be had for that money that is that huge of a difference maker?

How if you sign Tim to a 20M contract do you make trades (with what assets) or stockpile assets or sign FA's with limited money (full MLE brought no one this year).

Oddly enough, this FO has done their best work when they didn't have flexibility. It was the cap space that usually ended up in dumb moves (signing Rasho, for example).

Nearly every quality move throughout the last ten years was done without the use of cap space. You are acting like the Spurs won't be able to do anything unless they have $6 million or whatever it is if Duncan takes a discount when just about every good move the Spurs have done over the years used less than that amount of money. From their work in the draft to signing the Bowens and Neals.

as evidenced by you feeling similar until recently

Using my past quotes against me doesn't make much sense when so much has changed since then:

-Parker regained All-Star status even though it's possible that his athleticism is starting to decline. That in itself is huge.

-Splitter went from unknown to putting up Duncan-esque per-minute numbers. Again, a big difference.

-Parker and Splitter have been nearly unstoppable at times when paired together.

-The Spurs drafted a player who is by many accounts a top five rookie in the league.

-Duncan isn't showing much decline from last season.

-Ginobili didn't show much decline prior to injury.

-The Spurs have a couple interesting Euro prospects that could be added to the mix.

Those are some huge plot shifts, tbh.

When you are a team that isn't a contender and that player isn't a young building piece for your future, yes I don't believe in that scenario you pay someone 20M a year.

Even you admit that Duncan + ~MLE could yield a contender. Thus I don't get how if the equation is just Duncan by himself you just throw your hands up and quit.

The Spurs FO has made their rep by plucking MLE level talent out of the trash heap.

[baseline bum]

I'd rather see Tim offered the max extension than end his career in Philadelphia or Denver. PERIOD.