Neal Odd Man Out?

[Mel_13]

Pop used a nine man rotation in the last two postseasons, with 4 bigs and 5 perimeter players.

Tony, Manu, Leonard, and Jackson are the top 4 perimeter players. Green is the more complete player and most likely candidate for the 5th slot. Neal's best claim on minutes is as backup PG, otherwise he assumes the 2003 Steve Kerr role.

[jiggy_55]

You seriously think Blair is a lock to play but Splitter will have to beat out Bonner just to get minutes?

I was simply implying Splitter and Bonner might share some minutes. To answer your question: no.
But the way Pop has played things seems to show Splitter will only back up Timmy, and Timmy will receive 32+ mpg when it comes to the playoffs which leaves Splitter with very little unfortunately. Bonner sucks, but it seems that Pop will continue to ride him and hope those 3's go down when we need them. Pop has shown no sign of dropping Bonner's minutes, but all season long he hasn't given Splitter the minutes that his play has merited.

[TDMVPDPOY]

im fine with splitter with the backup role, as long he plays in important stretches of the game and yanked out when his not needed, like closing quarters or the game, same with bonner...

hopefully splitter takes up blair/bonners allocated minutes if things are in favor of splitter being on the floor when it comes to matchups

the thing with gary neal and blair, if those first few possessions they aint getting going, they should be yanked out straight away, cant afford to wait for guys to get hot while we continue to waste possessions...

[Keepin' it real]

No, Neal will not be the odd man out. This is not 1999 or 2003, when the Spurs were all about defense. This is 2012, when the Spurs are all about being an offensive juggernaut.

Do you really think a player like Bonner would have received regular minutes on the 1999 or 2003 teams?? Not a chance. But on today's teams, he does, because (theoretically) he's an accurate 3-point shooter who can help the Spurs outscore opponents.

The same applies to Neal, except it's not just theoretical -- that mutha has proven to be an assassin in clutch situations, so no, he's not the odd man out.

[DBMethos]

, Blair better not ing start in the playoffs.

Matchups will dictate this. Blair has absolutely no business starting against LAL or Memphis. However, he has proven quite effective against other playoff teams, most notably OKC. Hopefully Pop recognizes this and adjusts as such.

[bigfan]

I think Mills and Anderson will be the only two without a significant role in the playoffs (and even that could change.) Why mess with a good rotation that works?

[Keepin' it real]

Why mess with a good rotation that works?

2011 Coach Pop says hi! Oh, and he's the same guy coaching the team this year, so ...

[Darkwaters]

I think Mills and Anderson will be the only two without a significant role in the playoffs (and even that could change.) Why mess with a good rotation that works?

So you're basically saying you want a 12 man rotation?

Thats not a rotation, thats a free for all. I don't see it happening.

[elemento]

Not gonna happen

Anderson and Mills will play mostly garbage minutes or no minutes at all. The rest will play significant minutes.

[Dr Cox]

Maybe it is me, but I think he is going to keep the same group through the playoffs.

Dumb thought, I know but I could see it happening.

[urunobili]

I think Pop will play 11 players in the playoffs...

[Proxy]

haha, of course Neal will get minutes in the playoffs. Is the question a joke? He's instant offense... best shooter on the team.

[Fireball]

haha, of course Neal will get minutes in the playoffs. Is the question a joke? He's instant offense... best shooter on the team.

well. he had an extremely bad game after returning from a foot injury ... of course this has to be discussed

[Keepin' it real]

well. he had an extremely bad game after returning from a foot injury ... of course this has to be discussed

Yes of course. Neal had a bad game coming back from an injury -- several weeks before the playoffs start -- but let's go ahead and discuss taking him out of the playoff rotation entirely.

And by the way, what's Danny Green's excuse? He was worse than Neal last night, and he's done in the playoffs. I love Green's hustle and defense, but his lack of consistent offense is too much to overcome. So if anyone is the odd man out, it should be Green.

[Shifty]

Minutes will be given on a game to game basis. Just like the regular season. Sometimes Pop starts someone and they never return to the floor. Like Blair or sometimes Green (and Leonard until a few weeks ago) they can start but if they are not doing well, someone else gets hot or the matchup calls for a change Pop won't hesitate to make it.

I believe Green, Leonard and Blair will start unless something drastic happens before the playoffs. I also believe Neal will play at least a few minutes a game and stay there if he is hot. Also, no matter if he missed all of his shots, he will be there in crunch time when a shot is needed.

Starters playing 30+ minutes:
Parker
Leonard
Tim

Starters playing 15-25 minutes depending on how they do:
Green
Blair

Off the bench playing starters minutes for sure
Manu

Off the bench playing 20-30 of minutes if hot or because of matchups
Bonner
Splitter

Off the bench playing anything from 5 to 25 minutes depending on a lot of things:
Diaw
Jackson
Neal

DNPs unless something happens:
Mills
Anderson
6th big

Last 3 minutes defensive lineup against big teams:
Green
Leonard
Manu
Splitter
Duncan

Small:
Parker
Manu
Leonard
Jackson
Duncan

Last 3 minutes offensive lineups:
Parker
Neal
Manu
Bonner
Duncan

Last shot:
Parker
Neal
Jackson
Manu
Duncan

...

[DJB]

Neal > Green

[timvp]

Good thread

LJ, do you think there's a chance that in the playoffs as Pop pares down the rotation to 8 or 9 guys that Neal draws the short straw?

I've been paying attention to your ratings and it seems to me you've consistently harped on Neal's defense more than any Spur. With good reason, as he's dead last on the team in points allowed per 100 possessions, unless you count Corey Joseph.

For Neal to stick in the rotation, I think he's going to have to be the team's backup point guard. If he loses that spot in the rotation to Mills, I don't think he'll be in the everyday playoff rotation. Like you said, shooting guard is just to deep of a position on this team.

Neal is a defensively liability in most matchups but I think he's most useful when allowed to defend backup point guards. There are certain shooting guards he can defend but mostly he's just too short and too slow for that position.

Personally, I think Pop should attempt to keep Neal as the backup point guard if at all possible. Neal's shooting can be a game-changer so it'd be a shame to erase him completely. Mills is an intriguing option but I like him more as a third string point guard.

Actually, how Pop played it last night was perfect: Allow Neal to be the first backup point guard, if he's cold or the other team is taking advantage of his sub par ball-handling, go with Mills.

[Mugen]

Neal's shot would have to completely fall of a cliff for Pop to bench him in favor of Patty

[timvp]

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.

Last season, Pop used an 8-man rotation in Game 1 and a 9-man rotation the rest of the series. In 2010, he basically went with 8-man rotations. In 2009, it was a 9-man rotation.

This year, it'll probably start as a 9-man rotation but could get cut down to 8-man if any role player is struggling.

[DesignatedT]

Neal/Green is a tough argument though I think I'd rather have Neal. He's proven he can play under the bright lights and his 3 pt shot is ridiculous when on target. Green has struggled with consistency all year and the ability to play good on the road as well. But when Green is on target he is pretty deadly and definitely brings better defense and intangibles compared to Gary.

[T Park]

Pop used a nine man rotation in the last two postseasons, with 4 bigs and 5 perimeter players.

Tony, Manu, Leonard, and Jackson are the top 4 perimeter players. Green is the more complete player and most likely candidate for the 5th slot. Neal's best claim on minutes is as backup PG, otherwise he assumes the 2003 Steve Kerr role.

I 100% support that rotation.

[angelbelow]

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.

I see no reason why Pop would suddenly dramatically shorten his playoff rotation, especially in a year where the Spurs have more depth than usual.

Using this as a baseline, I'd expect to see the following:
1. Parker
2. Duncan
3. Ginobili
4. Leonard
5. Bonner
6. Splitter
7. Neal
8. Jackson
9. Diaw
10. Blair

11. Green (depending on match-ups)

12. Mills (limited minutes)
13. Anderson (limited minutes)

Are you saying that Pop uses 10+ rotation in the playoffs or regular season? Based on your response I assume you're talking about the regular season but correct me if my assumption is off.

In the regular season, you definitely want to take advantage of your depth. In a condensed season like this one, even James Anderson, the resident 12th is getting playing time every game.

However, the playoffs are a different story. Rosters are reduced to 7 consistent players with the 8th being interchangable. The main reason is that all of our key guys are going to be playing a lot more therefore reducing the minutes available for everyone else.
Some stats from the past 7 post seasons:
-On average, Duncan's minutes go up by about 4 minutes from 32 to 36.
-Our championship 2007 season featured 7 players who played consistently for 20 mpg. Next, we had 3 plays averaging around 10-12 minutes per game. This is what I meant by the "8th" player being situational as I believe that the 8th spot will be a different player depending on match ups, whose hot whose cold, etc etc.
-Our 2005 season was similar, 7 players received over 23+mpg.
-2011: We used closer to an 8 man rotation but our roster was weak and unprepared.
-2010: We used a six players averaging above 25 minutes and 1 Matt Bonner who came in at 17mpg. So roughly 7 players as well.

All in all, playoff rosters are trimmed for a good reason. You want the best on the floor as much as possible. Also, I'm not saying you strictly play 7 players, I'm simply saying that 7 will receive consistent minutes and roles with the 8th/9th/10th getting inconsistent playing time.

[DAF86]

Never, he's our best shooter.

[DAF86]

Last season, Pop used an 8-man rotation in Game 1 and a 9-man rotation the rest of the series. In 2010, he basically went with 8-man rotations. In 2009, it was a 9-man rotation.

This year, it'll probably start as a 9-man rotation but could get cut down to 8-man if any role player is struggling.

Given the cir stances (condensed schedulle, depth) I think Pop will go with a 10 men rotation this playoffs.

[TheSkeptic]

Given the cir stances (condensed schedulle, depth) I think Pop will go with a 10 men rotation this playoffs.

To what benefit though?

I'm as happy about the depth as anyone but in the playoffs you need to play your best players.

The minutes will have to be weighted heavily towards the top 7 with *maybe* your 8 and 9 playing about 10 minutes or so. Too much after that may get the Spurs past the first couple of rounds but it's not going to win number 5.