The DeJuan Blair Conundrum

[DPG21920]

And Boris should start instead of Blair just because he is a better player. I don't really think it is more complicate than that.

Blair should go in the doghouse. He is Spurs fifth best bigman. The only way he should get minutes in the playoffs is if Bonner failed again to deliver under the pressure. Blair should then be traded for whatever Spurs can get this summer.

I agree, but everyone as Spurs fans seems to want to evaluate everything but forgets the most simple logic at times: Play your best players. Yes, the regular season guys like Blair and Bonner are useful, but it makes no sense to keep giving less talented players more minutes than more talented guys.

That only makes sense when there is a huge gap in at ude and hustle (like RJ was more talented, but didn't deserve more minutes and the team wasn't better off with him over Kawhi/Green), but in the case of Tiago/Diaw that isn't an issue.

[Paranoid Pop]

The Spurs are as good as they are due to their bench. San Antonio's formula for success has been to have the starters hold it close and then for the bench to come in and blow it open.

With that in mind, it comes down to this:

Does DeJuan Blair starting have anything to do with the bench's success?

It sounds impossible at first ... but maybe there's something to it. When Blair is in, the Spurs pound it inside more than any other time in the game. They also run fewer pick-and-rolls when Blair is in the game. Once Blair is removed, the Spurs become a totally different team.

Does that change in iden y have anything to do with the bench doing so well? It makes some sense because the type of defense needed to stop the Spurs when Blair is in the game is a totally different type of defense needed to stop the Spurs when Blair checks out.

To compare it to football: Blair would be the power running back who wears down the defense, while the bench is the scatback that appears extra fast in comparison and is better able to take advantage of a worn down defense. Even if the scatback's stats are much better than those of the power RB, a team wouldn't necessarily become better if they just went with the scatback full-time. In fact, they'd probably be worse.

Before I wrote out my thoughts and read these replies, I was pretty convinced that benching Blair was the right move ... but now I'm not sure. Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason why the Spurs play like a 1st seed with Blair starting and a lottery team when Blair doesn't start. Maybe it's just something as simple as early energy, like OV said.

Unless the coaching staff is 100% sure Blair starting has nothing to do with the bench's success, it'd be a risky move to take him out of the starting lineup. And since Blair can only do so much damage in his ~12 minutes as a starter, it might be safer to to keep him in the opening five.





I'm still not sure, though.

I don't even unterstand that, how did we look like a lottery team against the Jazz, the offense didn't suffer even one bit. PLus the bench won't matter as much in the PO.

[jjktkk]

"Don't rock the apple cart".. no we're just giving it fancy rims and a new paint job. Oh, and a turbo booster.

The SpursTalk King of contradition posts in this thread. You about Pop "tinkering" with the lineup, but you want Pop to tinker with the lineup, even though the Spurs are playing well.

[timvp]

I think you got it the wrong way. Blair got benched because he was fat.

I've always understood it that Blair got depressed after getting benched and reacted by eating Whataburger for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I've gathered.

In this article, they said that Blair got fat was called out by Pop and lost 20lbs. I highly doubt all of that happened in the month and half between his benching and the end of the season.

Gaining 20 pounds ain't nothing on an all Whataburger diet, tbh

[jjktkk]

IMO, in the playoffs, Blair is on a short leash. If hes not producing, Pop needs to bench him. I say this even though Diaw is better overall player, and should be starting, but I doubt Pop will make any lineup changes this close to the playoffs.

[ElNono]

The only thing I don't like about Diaw is that he's not an aggressive guy, which is something Blair does have, but sometimes goes overboard with it. As I pointed out "ceilings" on the Bonner/Blair discussion a while back, I think it applies here too. I don't think you'll see Diaw putting a 20/10 line, where Blair might.

Defensively, it's no contest. I'll take Diaw any day of the week, even though I would take Splitter before him.

[timvp]

There is a way more logical explanation of these numbers.
When Blair doesn't start, he plays way more minutes alongside Bonner. These stats could be explained by the fact that Bonner struggles to play alongside Blair. It seems to be a more convincing explanation that teams struggling to adjust at Bonner monster offensive game.

That would make sense ... but the stats say that theory is wrong.

Last year when Bonner and Blair were on the court at the same time, Bonner shot 48% on three-pointers.

[TheSkeptic]

I don't even unterstand that, how did we look like a lottery team against the Jazz, the offense didn't suffer even one bit. PLus the bench won't matter as much in the PO.

Which is why the best players need to be playing period.

I love this team but the Spurs are only going as far as their big man rotation and while I appreciate hard work and hustle, I value height and talent more in the playoffs.

Leaving either one of Splitter/Diaw on the bench in favor of Blair/Bonner is just throwing good money after bad imo.

[timvp]

I agree, but everyone as Spurs fans seems to want to evaluate everything but forgets the most simple logic at times: Play your best players.

Eh, disagree. Being a Spurs fan should have taught you by now that "best fit" > "best player".

There were dozens of players better than Bowen in the league but very few of them would have allowed the Spurs to have had the same success as Bowen did. Same thing could be said about Horry.






Tbh, I hope Pop "rests" Blair a few more games down the stretch to see how the Spurs play without him. Last night the new starting lineup was decent but they hardly blew the doors off.

If it were my decision, I'd probably start Diaw full-time ... but I can't say that the Spurs would for sure be the better team.

[2centsworth]

The bright side is that Blair does have talent and the potential
To be a really good player. Unfortunately for now he can't control
His appe e for burgers topped with baby back ribs.

[Bruno]

That would make sense ... but the stats say that theory is wrong.

Last year when Bonner and Blair were on the court at the same time, Bonner shot 48% on three-pointers.

Well, then I would go with the fluke theory. I don't buy the theory that starting Blair makes the bench better because of a change of pace/playing style. That's too far fetched even more than Blair isn't a main peace of Spurs offense.

[angelbelow]

Eh, disagree. Being a Spurs fan should have taught you by now that "best fit" > "best player".

There were dozens of players better than Bowen in the league but very few of them would have allowed the Spurs to have had the same success as Bowen did. Same thing could be said about Horry.

When it comes to playing defense, who in the league was better than Bowen and could the Spurs have realistically acquired them? The answer is probably no one and no chance, so your example isn't relevant.

Besides, when I read DPG's comment I got the impression that he wants the Spurs to play their best players at their respective positions. I don't think hes talking about an all NBA-team situation.

[rmt]

And Boris should start instead of Blair just because he is a better player. I don't really think it is more complicate than that.

Blair should go in the doghouse. He is Spurs fifth best bigman. The only way he should get minutes in the playoffs is if Bonner failed again to deliver under the pressure. Blair should then be traded for whatever Spurs can get this summer.

This. Spurs' chances of winning a championship are razor-thin with everything needing to go well (health, luck, etc.) - no need to be wasting precious minutes catering to Blair's ego when those few minutes could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff game.

Play the best players. Diaw and Splitter need more time to get used to playing longer minutes with their team mates. I hope it's not going to take Pop 3 whole playoff games to realize that Splitter/Diaw should be playing instead of Blair (like vs MEM).

[therealtruth]

The Spurs need to improve the defense fast and the easiest way is to get rid of the worst defenders. Not starting him is addition by subtraction. For all the offense he provides he gives up alot to the other power forward. For all the rebound he gets he turns over the ball too much.

[Keepin' it real]

Blair starting > Blair off the bench > Blair not playing (as several have suggested)

[Tyrone Jenkins]

DeJuan Blair, despite the decrease in rebounding, still rebounds at a per min rate that is 2nd highest on the team and among the highest in the NBA.

[timvp]

When it comes to playing defense, who in the league was better than Bowen and could the Spurs have realistically acquired them? The answer is probably no one and no chance, so your example isn't relevant.

He said best player, not best defender. There were plenty of players who were "better" than Bowen by any measurement who wouldn't have made the Spurs a better team.

Best player is usually the way to go but not always.

[DPG21920]

Eh, disagree. Being a Spurs fan should have taught you by now that "best fit" > "best player".

There were dozens of players better than Bowen in the league but very few of them would have allowed the Spurs to have had the same success as Bowen did. Same thing could be said about Horry.

Somewhat disagree and that severely undervalues just how good Bruce was on defense. When you talk about a limited player in the mold of Bruce, that's not the same as a Bonner or Blair because they are limited overall without doing something exceptionally well like Bruce. Also, it's not about league-wide, but dealing with what you have. Right now, there is not a gap in at ude or hustle between Blair and Tiago/Diaw, just talent.

Tbh, I hope Pop "rests" Blair a few more games down the stretch to see how the Spurs play without him. Last night the new starting lineup was decent but they hardly blew the doors off.

If it were my decision, I'd probably start Diaw full-time ... but I can't say that the Spurs would for sure be the better team.

I don't know if they would be a better team either, but I think it's more correlation vs causation with Blair in the starting line up and the success. By all accounts, Blair doesn't do anything better than anyone else we could plug in - based on what people find faults in others with regards to starting next to Tim & "fit".

I just don't see how they get worse by taking him out is my point. Even if they don't get better, I don't see how it can negatively impact the team even if Blair sulks, there are still Tiago/Bonner who are productive guys.

[2centsworth]

DeJuan Blair, despite the decrease in rebounding, still rebounds at a per min rate that is 2nd highest on the team and among the highest in the NBA.

Give me those numbers the last 11 games, which coincides with his run on hohos

[DPG21920]

Mr. Randdddddddy Watsonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

[MmP]

It's amazing that 20 or less game remaining in the season one of our biggest issues is whether or not start Blair, thank god we got Diaw and Splitter is becoming a good player. Having 2 or 3 legit options to a PF is huge

[dylankerouac]

With Dejuan Blair starting at the very least the Spurs won't be playing like a bunch of wussies come playoffs if they get a tough match-up. I like Timvp's comparing DB to a power runner in the NFL, he wears down the other team and when you bring in your speedsters they have a better chance to break some ankles since the defense is more worn out for it. Teammates can also be invigorated by his play, he simply can't be ignored around the basket. We will also be asking Tim to do more work with Blair out of the starting lineup when the opposing team is fresh and he is 35. We could bring Tiago in but that is almost ridiculous this late in the season, you go with what works plain and simple and the statistics show the Blair works early in the game. He is almost like the quarterback with the unorthodox throw that still gets you wins. Or the quarterback that is shorter than the prototype and still manages to win big games (I won't go farther and say a Superbowl because Blair has not proven to be that type of player and I'm sure no one around here would call him clutch in offense or defense since he is only used at the start of games or quarters - I'm sure everyone including myself will argue his importance is also nowhere near that of an NFL QB, I'm simply trying to make a point).

The team does not have another power player to look to. If Spurs management wants to do something about it they will likely have to do it during the offseason. Heck they have already given the team two major upgrades with SJax and Mills. Yes we have Diaw too but the playoffs are a physical type of play, we'll be better with the one physical player we have wearing out teams at the beginning of the game.

[dbestpro]

I often loathe the way Blair plays. Having said that I believe that he should start because no one does what he does better and that is fouling the opposing team.

You see the refs are gonna call a certain number of early fouls inside at someone. As long as Blair is on the floor he gets the whistle while it keeps Timmy from getting in foul trouble. Start Diaw or Splitter, and the calls may go against them or Duncan. I prefer Blair to be the one in early foul trouble.

[roycrikside]

LJ, I think the important clarification that needs to be made isn't that this is an argument for starting Blair vs. bringing him off the bench.

Realistically, it's more like starting him vs. only playing him at the end of blowouts or in absolute emergencies.

Even though he's technically a starter, Blair is, for all intents and purposes, the fourth big. He's gonna play the first 6-8 minutes of each half and that's that.

If you split the difference and give Blair 14 mpg in the playoffs and Duncan 34 mpg, that leaves 48 minutes for the other three bigs, assuming no small ball. Divide that 48 by three and you've got 16 mpg for Tiago, Diaw and Bonner. Sounds good to me.

Even if you argue that Pop would never play Tim and Tiago together, that means 14 mpg for Splitter and 18 for either Bonner or Diaw.

I think if we remove Blair from the rotation entirely, you're pretty much guaranteeing that we'll have have 8-12 mpg of smallball, because it's not like Pop is gonna suddenly start giving Tiago 22 minutes (including a bunch with Tim) or play Diaw or Bonner over 20 mpg.

[Mel_13]

And Boris should start instead of Blair just because he is a better player. I don't really think it is more complicate than that.

Blair should go in the doghouse. He is Spurs fifth best bigman. The only way he should get minutes in the playoffs is if Bonner failed again to deliver under the pressure. Blair should then be traded for whatever Spurs can get this summer.

I agree and believe that it really is that simple.

Before adding Diaw, a completely different situation existed. The team had to go through a condensed season with 4 bigs. All of them had to play significant minutes and using Blair as the starter next to Duncan certainly worked as part of the overall deployment of the 4 bigs.

Now you acquire a talented 9 year NBA vet with substantial playoff experience. It's just an obvious, low risk/high reward move to replace Blair with Diaw. Even if he does nothing but play the exact same minutes that Blair has filled, there's very little chance that he makes the team noticeably worse. On the contrary, the history of both players suggests a likelihood that Diaw fills Blair's minutes with substantially better performances. What's more, Diaw becomes an option to take any minutes that Bonner may have received in end of game situations.

It's just too obvious not to happen.