There are at least three competing incentives at work in David Stern’s pending punishment of the Spurs for resting Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green on Thursday in Miami — a punishment that will surely top out at a fine, since any non-monetary penalty would be ridiculous.
1. The Spurs’ incentive to win a le. There is no proof Gregg Popovich’s long-standing practice of giving his key cogs an occasional night off furthers this goal, and as
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus put it late last night, Popovich’s general night-to-night minutes management likely has a far larger impact than these total off nights on the relative spryness of his old folks come May and June. Learning semi-definitive things about health, fatigue, and injuries is the next frontier in sports research, and we are about 5 percent of the way there. It’s impossible to prove that the off nights help or somehow hurt San Antonio’s long-term fatigue prognosis, but there is evidence that overplaying guys in the regular season can hurt a team’s le chances. The information is murky on all fronts, but it’s hard to blame Popovich for trying anything he and the team’s very smart staff believe might give the Spurs a half-percent greater chance of winning a fifth ring.