Trade Deadline Deals and Rumors

[Seventyniner]

Well, it's not as clear as that for me. Spurs being genuinely interested in Smith remains a legit possibility.

I agree. Woj's tweet mentioning only Eastern conference teams, and many of those in the 7th-10th seed range, makes little sense to me. The Hawks are still a playoff team if they stand pat, and they definitely wouldn't want to trade their second-best player to a team that could knock them out of the top 8.

[Bruno]

What tangible evidence have you seen that there is a legit interest? No team need, questionable fit, lack of assets in reality, contract questions, chemistry concerns and nothing outside of one little blurb about the Spurs and Josh Smith with no other credible info on that. Not to mention Woj not mentioning the Spurs after listing a lot of teams signals to me it was not a real interest. Could be wrong, but I am not seeing it add up.

First, I disagree about your view on Smith. He would fill a need for Spurs both at SF and PF. And while there is some chemistry, contract and fitting concerns, he is a damn good player who could make Spurs significantly better.

Second, maybe you missed it, but Sam Amico also reported it:
http://www.foxsportsohio.com/02/15/1...73&feedID=3725

San Antonio could emerge as a potential landing spot for Smith, according to an Eastern Conference GM. With Smith’s expiring contract, it is believed the Spurs wouldn’t have to surrender much in return — and that coach Gregg Popovich and stars Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili would be able to keep the sometimes-difficult Smith in line.

While it's possible that Amico is lying to the GM is saying it because of a blurb from Spears on Yahoo power ranking, I would say that both cases are unlikely.

[DrunkTXLabrat]

Why are we talking about Green who is a great bench player but will never be a starter for any other team then the Spurs or Bobcats? I thought this was about trades and not Fantasy Basketball?

green could start for atlanta. ferry loves him. stephen jacksons expiring contract is very attractive. atlanta has a major defensive star. josh smith is not rj.

[objective]

That's just an idiosyncratic argument. Who cares if players have averaged those exact numbers at over their careers?

No, it is a truthful argument based on facts, those facts being stats.

Take away a couple of assists and add a couple of points, and you have Green's estimated production if he can learn to finish. If he gets 17 points and three assists instead of 15 and five, I don't think that makes a difference. Also, if someone is just a half a point/assist/etc. away from reaching a mark, they really should be counted. As far as I'm concerned, Andre Iguadola has averaged 15/6/5/2/1 per 36 over his entire career.

A ceiling is not supposed to be incredibly realistic; it's not supposed to be what the player will achieve if he barely improves. Maybe Green's ceiling is a less-athletic but better-shooting Iguadola. Outside of assists, their per 36 numbers are pretty much the same.

So we're rounding up on everthing? You can say that Iguodala's rounded up (and in one case doubled) equal whatever you want. The facts are that he never had the 15/5/5/2/1 in a single season. Let alone 15/5/5/2/2. And he's been an all-star and focal point of his team. And an all-defense 2nd teamer. If you think Green's ceiling is what Iguodala has been with better shooting, then okay. But better, and in some categories 4x better?

EDIT: And I don't think disagreeing with objective is in any way dismissing his (or her) opinion. I appreciate the stats provided to help me understand what I was projecting and how good Green would have to be to reach those goals. The fact that Iggy is the only player who is doing what I think Green could do is exciting, not discouraging.

My posts, related to Green, weren't just about Green. I think your gauge on stats is off and slanted towards unrealistic highs, even for potential ceiling highs. I don't want it to seem like I'm attacking you or anything like that, my reaction would be the same if somebody said that Baynes' ceiling was 20/20 per 36. That's never happened the last 50 years.

The fact that anyone getting 15/5/5/2/2 would be a Once-in-a-Lifetime season makes that clear. Danny Green's ceiling might be high to some, some might think his ceiling is really high . . . but singularly the greatest, unachieved season in 25 years?

Similarly this issue happens with Kawhi. Ignoring Kawhi as a player, Chinook's stated requirements for Kawhi being a star are skewed way too high on the steals and blocks. Players just don't get 2 & 2. One guy has the past 20 years, and he didn't get the assists. Drummond might be able to one day per 36. That's it.

Your star-requirements for Kawhi: 20/8/4/2/2. That's just to be a star. Nobody's done it per 36 minutes that played enough to qualify for leaderboards. Ever. In NBA history. Dr. J. came close, with 1.8 blocks. In the last 30 years, Pippen did it all except less than a block a game. Kawhi or anyone else doing it would have a season for the ages. And that's just to be a star?

I think re-setting your Steals & Blocks expectations for all levels (including ceilings) could be helpful. 1.5 and 1.5 is still hard per 36, but within reason. That's happened 20 times the last 10 years. There are more 20 & 10 rebound seasons than 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. Even 2.0 steals and 1.5 blocks has only been done twice per 36 the last 20 years, and one of those was only 16 minutes a game for Tractor Traylor of all people.

[BatManu20]

You guys make it sound like Danny Green is just another scrub and is easily replaceable. If we trade him, that leaves a huge hole at SG while simultaneously taking away our best 3-point threat. You guys expect Neal to move into a starting role? Would not be good. Kawhi isn't playing SG for us. Green has his flaws, sure, but we're a whole lot better with him than without him. If we could get Smith somehow without giving up Green and Tiago (Kawhi is off limits) then I'd be all for it, but that's unlikely, so I doubt the Spurs have a very good chance at bringing him in when there are other teams willing to give up more for him.

[DrunkTXLabrat]

BatManu20 with a starting line up of tony, kawhi, smith, timmy, splitter. manu and nando cover for danny. i believe in nando.

[Kidd K]

Players just don't get 2 & 2. One guy has the past 20 years

More than one has. David Robinson in 1992. Hakeem in '86 and '88-'91. But I guess to be technical, that's slightly over 20 years ago.

I agree with your point though, that expecting 2 blocks and 2 steals at the same time per game is a ludicrous expectation since barely anyone ever attains it. And certainly not with 5 assists either. Mainly, a center or PF, the just about only positions that ever get 2 BPG, rarely average 5 assists or 2 steals. Meanwhile, the SG and PG positions, which are the most likely to get 2 SPG or 5 APG, very rarely even get 1 BPG, much less 2.

For Leonard to become a "star", at least in terms of being a household name and borderline all star, not a perennial all star; I think 18/7.5/4/2/0.8 would be a reasonable number. A Luol Deng/Andre Iguodala type statline. That's his realistic ceiling imo, and if he gets there, I'll be happy. The points are probably asking for too much though. But hey, it could always be a Sean ****** type situation where he gets better every year, rather than flatten out after a few seasons like most do.

I think Leonard's capable of more rebounds than he's getting even right now tbh, and 16-17 PPG would be very solid for the current Spurs team. If Duncan and Manu are gone, then that number should probably be higher. More like 18-19 than 16-17.

[GB20]

BatManu20 with a starting line up of tony, kawhi, smith, timmy, splitter. manu and nando cover for danny. i believe in nando.

[Obstructed_View]

I would be glad to see Bledsoe leaving Clippers. He is a matchup nightmare for Spurs current roster.

Jordan's the one who plays like his namesake against the Spurs. Bledsoe's really good, but he's stupid. The Spurs had an easy time frustrating and taking him out of his game last year. A hot Clippers team worries me, but a hot Clippers team with Garnett instead of Jordan and Bledsoe does not.

[TD 21]

First, I disagree about your view on Smith. He would fill a need for Spurs both at SF and PF. And while there is some chemistry, contract and fitting concerns, he is a damn good player who could make Spurs significantly better.

Agreed. At this point, I wouldn't give up Splitter for him and I'd have never given up Leonard for him, but if they could get him for Jackson and some combination of non rotation players, overseas rights and draft picks (I realize there's no chance of that, I'm just saying), then his superior talent would supersede any concern about chemistry, contract and fit.


Whether it comes to fruition or not, props to elemento for bringing up a Bledsoe-Millsap trade weeks ago, in the trade thread in the think tank.

[Obstructed_View]

Bruno, the Spurs aren't going to give Smith a max contract, and you know there's one GM out there who's going to swing for the fences trying to save his job. Whether or not we agree that he's a good fit with the Spurs, what am I missing here?

[timvp]

San Antonio could emerge as a potential landing spot for Smith, according to an Eastern Conference GM. With Smith’s expiring contract, it is believed the Spurs wouldn’t have to surrender much in return

It's difficult to believe that first sentence when that second sentence doesn't make any sense. No one is going to land Josh Smith for cheap. I doubt the Spurs want to give up Splitter or Leonard for Smith. But outside of giving up one of those two, I don't think the Spurs have the assets to compete with other offers.

I'd be extremely surprised if Smith gets traded for anything less than a decent to good prospect and a draft pick that is closer to 20 than 30.

Smith being Dwight Howard's friend adds a lot to his value. A team could conceivably go after Smith hard if they believe it'll help their chances of landing Howard.

[Obstructed_View]

I don't think they watched the NBA during the spurs championship years. You can't, I repeat, you can't compare Danny Green to Ray Allen based on three point percentage. Its a joke. I like Danny but the kid can't dribble or even make a layup. He's a product of kickouts and will not even be half the player Allen was in his prime.

^this. Ray Allen was one of the best players in the league for quite a long stretch. He shot 40% from three point range as the first option on his team; the guy the defense keyed on. He became more of a role-player from long range later in his career, but he was the best player on his team for ten years until he went to Boston.

[Obstructed_View]

Smith being Dwight Howard's friend adds a lot to his value. A team could conceivably go after Smith hard if they believe it'll help their chances of landing Howard.

A smart GM might make the case to Josh that he could take a bit less in order to throw money at Dwight. Then you could get Josh's salary more in line with what he's worth and have him lobby to get his friend to join up.

[Bruno]

Bruno, the Spurs aren't going to give Smith a max contract, and you know there's one GM out there who's going to swing for the fences trying to save his job. Whether or not we agree that he's a good fit with the Spurs, what am I missing here?

I don't think a GM will offer him a max contract. The new CBA, with the highly dissuasive luxury tax, makes it harder for a team to offer a max contract at a borderline all star.

[Richie]

Could we perhaps get involved in a 3 way deal involving Smith?

Smith to Mavs
Marion to Spurs
Danny Green, Bonner, OJ Mayo, Spurs 1st, Mavs 2nd to Hawks

[Bruno]

And Spurs can offer a attractive pick to Hawks for Smith.

A first round pick that is top 3 and top 15-30 from 2015 through 2018 and unprotected in 2019 would be a nice piece for the rebuilding Hawks. Given the age and/or mileage of the big 3, it's likely that Spurs end up as a lottery team in few years.

[Richie]

And Spurs can offer a attractive pick to Hawks for Smith.

A first round pick that is top 3 and top 15-30 from 2015 through 2018 and unprotected in 2019 would be a nice piece for the rebuilding Hawks. Given the age and/or mileage of the big 3, it's likely that Spurs end up as a lottery team in few years.

Is Smith really worth sacrificing the Spurs future for? We have one good piece going forward in Leonard who could maybe be a #2 option on a championship team, we could become a possible contender with only a couple high lottery picks.

[Bruno]

Is Smith really worth sacrificing the Spurs future for? We have one good piece going forward in Leonard who could maybe be a #2 option on a championship team, we could become a possible contender with only a couple high lottery picks.

Well, it depends how you value him. Personally, I'll do it only if Spurs are confident they would be able to re-sign him.

[BatManu20]

Could we perhaps get involved in a 3 way deal involving Smith?

Smith to Mavs
Marion to Spurs
Danny Green, Bonner, OJ Mayo, Spurs 1st, Mavs 2nd to Hawks

So you're suggesting we trade Danny Green, Matt Bonner, AND a 1st round pick for for Shawn Marion..? Are you kidding?

[Brunodf]

Could we perhaps get involved in a 3 way deal involving Smith?

Smith to Mavs
Marion to Spurs
Danny Green, Bonner, OJ Mayo, Spurs 1st, Mavs 2nd to Hawks

MArion is a Tosb and can't shoot

[Obstructed_View]

I don't think a GM will offer him a max contract. The new CBA, with the highly dissuasive luxury tax, makes it harder for a team to offer a max contract at a borderline all star.

I'd like to think nobody would, but I keep underestimating the stupidity of pro sports GMs. I've never seen anything in Josh's character to make me think he'd stick with the Spurs for a chance to win rings either. It's probably all academic; I don't think the Spurs would give up Splitter or Leonard to get him, and I think that's what it would require for Ferry to give him up.

[DrunkTXLabrat]

Well, it depends how you value him. Personally, I'll do it only if Spurs are confident they would be able to re-sign him.

green, jax, blair, 1st for smith rental

green, jax, blair, bonner, 1st, future 1st for smith extended at less than max

i'd could see either

[Richie]

So you're suggesting we trade Danny Green, Matt Bonner, AND a 1st round pick for for Shawn Marion..? Are you kidding?

Marion is head and shoulders ahead of either Green or Bonner. Our 1st will likely be #30, not like we're giving up a lottery pick.

Our wing rotation of Kawhi/Manu/Jackson/Marion is about as elite defensively as you can get. Gives us endless players to throw at Westbrook, Durant, Wade and Lebron. Moving Kawhi to the 2 would give him a more expansive role in the starting unit that he doesn't get at the 3.

At first I thought it was too much, but the more I think about it the more I like it.

[Chinook]

Your post.

So for clarification's sake, I don't think ceilings are ever fully realized; they're meant to be slightly unobtainable goals. For example, if a player's ceiling is supposed to be 20/10, and he get 21/10, then I feel the projection was wrong. So I am okay with Green not actually reaching all of those goals (or any) so long as he's close in most categories. If a player averages 19.5 points and 9.8 rebounds, I am just fine calling him a 20/10 player. That doesn't mean that we have to agree on that being the proper distinction, but so long as we know what the other means, there isn't really a problem.

So if Green had a season along the lines of Iggy's average, I would consider him being one block short of meeting my projection. If you disagree, that's cool, but just know that rounding error doesn't concern me when talking about asymptotic ceilings. It's all about impact in my mind, not numbers. I'm sorry that we were on different wavelengths there.

Apply that concession to Leonard as well. He doesn't have to get above each of those categories for me to consider him a star. He just has to get close in most of those. Also, I don't care if he doesn't even get close to some of those goals if he gets higher totals in others. He has a few years where he gets 20 solid points (meaning more) and eight solid rebounds but only averages 2.5 assists and 1 block, I won't have any problem thinking that's star production.

In short, I think if Green could get ALL of the junk out of his game and become a significantly better passer, then he could post numbers like Iguadola. Conversely, Leonard would have to play as a more team-oriented Rudy Gay while keeping his scoring for me to consider him a star. That's because I only consider 5-7 players in the league stars. If you don't agree with that it's fine, too. Just replace "star" with "top 5-7 player" when reading my posts.

So I hope we understand each other better: I understand that surpassing (meaning meeting in your interpretation) my projections would put both Green and Leonard in too rare of company to be realistic, and I hope you understand that I don't hold my ceiling projections as hard guidelines that all have to be met. Your numbers don't lie, and I understand now why you were quick to critique me. Clearly, I was wrong on things like averaging 2/2 in blocks and steals being realistic. I'll never project those amounts again.