NBA: Player reliance on Freebies Analysis

[gaKNOW!blee]

There is no player on the face of the planet equal to Kevin Durant in many aspects (no, I didn't just call him the best player on the planet - although honestly, he's #2). Basically you guys are pissed because he shoots 9 freebies a game, when he's basically (arguably) the most unguardable guy on the planet. I don't get it. Yeah he gets his superstar calls and in games where the refs are calling things too close, he gets too many touch fouls. I don't like tightly called games like that. Even aside from that though, KD is fouled - a lot. Westbrook goes to the foul line ONE MORE TIME PER GAME than Tony Parker. You wanna about that? 1 trip to the line more for a guy whose offensive approach in the paint is FAR more aggressive than Parker's and for a guy who shoots, what, 4 more FGs a game than Parker. Whatever. Westbrook is an animal. He's dunking over 7 footers. Of course he's freaking fouled all the time. Open your eyes.

FAR more aggressive? Parker is one of the leaders in points in the paint, and has only attempted 58 3's this year. Westbrook has attempted 247 3's and who knows how many re ed pull up jumpers in transition.

[OKC]

FAR more aggressive? Parker is one of the leaders in points in the paint, and has only attempted 58 3's this year. Westbrook has attempted 247 3's and who knows how many re ed pull up jumpers in transition.

More aggressive. Even if not FAR more aggressive, Westbrook is naturally going to draw more fouls. Like I said in another thread, Parker's much more likely to shoot the floater in the paint, he'll get defenders biting on pass fakes - he typically gets cleaner looks at the rim than Westbrook does. He's like a JJ Barea to me - Barea gets a remarkable amount of uncontested layups. Even Barea averages over 3 attempts at the rim a game, this is for a 5'8 guy not playing starter minutes. Parkers attack on the rim is similar to Bareas - very crafty, but a bit more averse to contact compared to a Westbrook. Westbrook dunks over big men in the league. He can and will attempt to go through and over front court players. Parker will not even attempt it because he lacks the physical capabilities of doing so. That's not to take away from how great Parker is in the paint, but the fact is he goes about it much differently than Westbrook. Certainly a guy like Westbrook being granted ONE additional trip to the line per game over a guy like Parker is completely reasonable.

[Brazil]

Hey, at least you can recognize Westbrook's game. Ive defended Westbrook hard on here and his FT attempts. The dude is earning them - totally legit. Ive backed it up with very reasonable comparisons and stats with those of Tony Parkers. To be honest - yes it's more difficult to argue as hard for KD's FT #'s compared to Westbrook's.

true dat tbh, I was surprised to see Westbrook that high in that list of players going at the rim, 401 attempts is quite amazing for a guard. Therefore there is nothing scandalous for me that he is getting some whistles, he is guarded most of the time by much less athletic guards and go inside. As you recognize KD treatment is much more doubtful even though guarding without fooling him is hard.

[Double-Up]

funny thing is harden gets even more freebies after departing from OKC, which reflects that the rockets have been covertly receiving even more help from the refs than OKC have, and that's the main reason why they're in the playoff range now imho. take refs away from the game and the rockets (a borderline superstar plus a band of immature role players) are no better than what they were in the previous seasons tbh

Do you ever contribute anything meaningful or just mindless drivel?

[OKC]

Yeah, not a real shocker that Harden now gets more freebies now since he's running the damn show and not playing in KD's shadow. You just have to understand some people are always the victims. When they see success they just grasp for things to and moan about. Rather than recognize a player or team's success, they conjure up bizarre reasons for the success. Houston is only better this year than last year because of the REFS? That's about re ed.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Edit : whatever

[ElNono]

The only way to solve this is to have the most objective poster on the NBA board go through each of Durant's foul calls (for maybe 15 games) on Synergy and determine if there was an actual foul.

15 isn't a huge sample size, but it will at least give us an idea. After recording the totals, you can use that to determine:

-Fouls received per game
-True Fouls received per game
-(True Fouls/Total Fouls) %
-Points received off True Fouls
-(Points received off all fouls) - (Points received off True Fouls) = X
-((All points) - X)/games played = legitimate PPG

After you do that, you'd have to do it for a 2-3 other players and compare to see if he's really being gifted calls. I'd love to see this done on Kevin Martin during his years with Houston. That dude could get calls out of no where. The trick is you have to be as objective as possible when determining if a call was deserved or not.

I vote Nono does it.

I think Harlem has Synergy access. Shouldn't be too complicated if he wants to go ahead with it, IMO.

[pad300]

More aggressive. Even if not FAR more aggressive, Westbrook is naturally going to draw more fouls. ... He can and will attempt to go through and over front court players. Parker will not even attempt it because he lacks the physical capabilities of doing so ...

You are probably seeing a little cause/effect confusion here - Parker can go right at big men, and did when he was younger. However, when he got thumped on a shot attempt, he wouldn't get the call ( unlike Westbrook ) so Parker stopped doing it. If Westbrook was getting thumped without getting the call, he'd also likely develop a floater and be much more enthusiastic about avoiding contact.

[OKC]

You are probably seeing a little cause/effect confusion here - Parker can go right at big men, and did when he was younger. However, when he got thumped on a shot attempt, he wouldn't get the call ( unlike Westbrook ) so Parker stopped doing it. If Westbrook was getting thumped without getting the call, he'd also likely develop a floater and be much more enthusiastic about avoiding contact.

Westbrook is completely incapable of bringing himself to shooter floaters. We're talking hardheaded Westbrook here. He's gonna do what he's gonna do whether he gets the call or not. Ive never seen the guy shoot a floater.

[pad300]

I think Harlem has Synergy access. Shouldn't be too complicated if he wants to go ahead with it, IMO.

Actually, it would be quite a bit harder than you think. The key is not necessarily in the calls Durant gets - but rather the calls that other players don't get. As Jerry Sloan's Jazz teams occasionally demonstrated, referees can't/won't call all the fouls in a game - it gets too choppy. So you'd have to look at all of each player's time on the court (including time off the ball) to see if someone is drawing fouls at an unusual rate.

[ElNono]

Yeah, not a real shocker that Harden now gets more freebies now since he's running the damn show and not playing in KD's shadow. You just have to understand some people are always the victims. When they see success they just grasp for things to and moan about. Rather than recognize a player or team's success, they conjure up bizarre reasons for the success. Houston is only better this year than last year because of the REFS? That's about re ed.

As Brazil cleverly pointed out, Harden is a player (along with Westbrook, Lebron, there goes your assist men theory) that attacks the rim consistently, thus it makes sense he'll get a bulk of his points from the freebie line. The real mystery is how Durant is even close to Harden at all in the freebie rankings.

[pad300]

Westbrook is completely incapable of bringing himself to shooter floaters. We're talking hardheaded Westbrook here. He's gonna do what he's gonna do whether he gets the call or not. Ive never seen the guy shoot a floater.

IF he'd spent his rookie season collecting bruises and floor burns without shooting a ton of free throws, his head might be a little softer...

[jag]

Actually, it would be quite a bit harder than you think. The key is not necessarily in the calls Durant gets - but rather the calls that other players don't get. As Jerry Sloan's Jazz teams occasionally demonstrated, referees can't/won't call all the fouls in a game - it gets too choppy. So you'd have to look at all of each player's time on the court (including time off the ball) to see if someone is drawing fouls at an unusual rate.

We have two different goals here.

I really don't care if Kyle Korver is getting cheated out of a foul call during a game against the Cavs in November. What I want to know is out of the top 5 players in the League to draw the most fouls, how many of the foul calls are legitimate fouls. Are the refs just gifting these guys an inordinate amount of calls, or are those dudes just good at getting the defender out of position and drawing contact? They're obviously good at drawing calls, but out of those calls, how many are really fouls?

It doesn't really matter to me if Boobie Gibson is getting the same calls or not.

[UNCLE-DREW]

Now we talking ElNono. This is my kind of thread.

Using your formula, I want to provide world class analysis on D-Whistle:

Total points: 1304
Free Throws Made: 274
Percentage of points from FTAs: 21% (274 divided by 1304)

I need to calculate to see if D-Whistle is still an elite player. Using my Hollingeresque formula:

21% of his points are FTAs. So, 21%*1304 points = 273.84.
Subtract FTA% points from total points (1304-273.84) = 1030.16
Take that total and divide by total games played to get true ppg (1030.16/60). I get 17.17 ppg (rounded up because I am a nice guy).

There you have it folks. Wade is really a 17.17 ppg scorer. Please not that these numbers would drop like a bad habit if he wasn't coat tailing LeBron and Bosh. Their mere presence makes it easier on D-Whistle to score. Case in point, if he were in Houston, he would not be the 21.7 ppg scorer that he appears to be. In other words, he's still a referee dependent superstar. But...without FTAs, he ain't .
Neal with it Ace.

987 FGA 0.524 FG% 16,2 FGA

1368 FGA 0.468 FG% 20,4 FGA

sup chucker

[OKC]

KD is a genius at drawing defenders in. YOu guys can't see this? He has a harder time baiting the Lebrons and Marions of the league because these guys are smart, but 8 out of 10 guys that defend Durant are setting themselves up for failure. In their mind, their goal is to smother Durant. Don't give him any space to work or force him to one side of the court. So they'll front him in one direction, all up in his business, and he recognizes this and baits them into the foul. Yeah he's initiating the contact. The defender isn't always swiping and fouling Durant, but the rules state that a defender cannot impede the forward motion of an offensive player with his arms. Durant sees the defender crowding and if the defenders arms are forward and down at all, he can drive right into him. It's a foul. You ever see a guy try and take a charge with his arms forward? No, because he'd be called for a block. Durant is just catching these guys sleeping and with his long stride and arms he's driving right into their arms. How is it not a foul? Fans see it and call BS because the defender isn't actually hacking at Durant, but its still a foul nonetheless.

[gaKNOW!blee]

KD is a genius at drawing defenders in. YOu guys can't see this? He has a harder time baiting the Lebrons and Marions of the league because these guys are smart, but 8 out of 10 guys that defend Durant are setting themselves up for failure. In their mind, their goal is to smother Durant. Don't give him any space to work or force him to one side of the court. So they'll front him in one direction, all up in his business, and he recognizes this and baits them into the foul. Yeah he's initiating the contact. The defender isn't always swiping and fouling Durant, but the rules state that a defender cannot impede the forward motion of an offensive player with his arms. Durant sees the defender crowding and if the defenders arms are forward and down at all, he can drive right into him. It's a foul. You ever see a guy try and take a charge with his arms forward? No, because he'd be called for a block. Durant is just catching these guys sleeping and with his long stride and arms he's driving right into their arms. How is it not a foul? Fans see it and call BS because the defender isn't actually hacking at Durant, but its still a foul nonetheless.

actually he's just a skinny little who falls down anytime someone breathes on him. guys like Lebron aren't built like birds so the contact isn't as noticeable.

tbh.

[jag]

KD is a genius at drawing defenders in. YOu guys can't see this?

of course, brah. He's good at drawing legitimate fouls. But he also gets some calls that seem ridiculous. I just want to know how many fouls he draws that are unwarranted.

[jag]

I might just go ahead and do it sometime this week when I have time. I could do all the games since the all-star break.

[Seventyniner]

I was curious about some of these stats so I used Hoopdata. I decided to sort players by FGA at rim per 40 minutes, only for players that play at least 25 MPG.
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.as...&gp2=0&mins=25

Kevin Durant ranks #72 out of 168 with 4.6 FGA at rim per 40 minutes. The fact that he is 2nd in the league in FTA/game (3rd in FTA/40 min) boggles the mind.
For comparison, Harden is #27, Bryant #46, LeBron #17, Westbrook #11, Parker #15.

For more perspective, the following players take more shots at the rim per 40 minutes than Kevin Durant while playing at least 25 MPG:
John Wall, Ty Lawson, Tony Allen (cause he can't shoot), Eric Gordon, Kemba Walker, Raymond Felton, Rudy Gay (surprised), Andre Miller, Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin, Shannon Brown, Brandon Knight, Jrue Holiday, Luol Deng, Rodney Stuckey, and in a virtual tie with KD....Matt Brnes
I left out big men because they're expected to take a lot of shots at the rim.

[ElNono]

The 'KD is a savvy vet that knows how to draw fouls' angle

He's defended by the same guys that guard Lebron but don't foul him anywhere near as much

[Cry Havoc]

The 'KD is a savvy vet that knows how to draw fouls' angle

He's defended by the same guys that guard Lebron but don't foul him anywhere near as much

Clearly, he's just far more intelligent with his BBIQ than LeBron is.

[OKC]

[QUOTE=ElNono;6425027]The 'KD is a savvy vet that knows how to draw fouls' angle

It's a true statement. Whether or not you agree with every call made that results in KD shooting a free throw, he does draw a good number of legit fouls, many due to his intelligence in taking advantage of a defender's position.
Something else that's food for thought - why do you think KD doesn't take a lot of shots at the rim? Why does Chandler Parsons, Shannon Brown, all of these guys..why do they take more at the rim? Because the defense has bigger fish to concentrate on. KD is the main focus of the defense,night in and night out. It's constant pressure, double teams, weak side help. He can't get to the damn rim most of the time. He's fouled before he can even get there - truth. Again, not denying he gets a share of his borderline calls, but there's a legit reason for the low at rim attempts.

[OKC]

Clearly, he's just far more intelligent with his BBIQ than LeBron is.

Actually, if you've read all of my posts today, you'll find I stated the opposite. Nice of you to put words in my mouth though.

[Seventyniner]

It's a true statement. Whether or not you agree with every call made that results in KD shooting a free throw, he does draw a good number of legit fouls, many due to his intelligence in taking advantage of a defender's position.
Something else that's food for thought - why do you think KD doesn't take a lot of shots at the rim? Why does Chandler Parsons, Shannon Brown, all of these guys..why do they take more at the rim? Because the defense has bigger fish to concentrate on. KD is the main focus of the defense,night in and night out. It's constant pressure, double teams, weak side help. He can't get to the damn rim most of the time. He's fouled before he can even get there - truth. Again, not denying he gets a share of his borderline calls, but there's a legit reason for the low at rim attempts.

Utter horse . Harden and Parker get to the rim plenty often while being the primary offensive option for their teams. Also, Durant has a teammate in Westbrook who draws more attention than any of Parker's or Harden's teammates.

As time goes on, Durant will find it harder and harder to make an impact in playoff games. Durant gets many of his FTA by taking advantage of the rules, and defenders can learn that game too. Put Durant in the hand-check era and he averages 22 PPG and is a borderline All-Star.

[OKC]

Utter horse . Harden and Parker get to the rim plenty often while being the primary offensive option for their teams. Also, Durant has a teammate in Westbrook who draws more attention than any of Parker's or Harden's teammates.

As time goes on, Durant will find it harder and harder to make an impact in playoff games. Durant gets many of his FTA by taking advantage of the rules, and defenders can learn that game too. Put Durant in the hand-check era and he averages 22 PPG and is a borderline All-Star.

Why are you comparing KD to point guards/shooting guards? Of course a PG is going to get in the paint a lot easier. KD is 6'10. It's physics. Why do you think JJ Barea can get in the paint at will against anyone in the league? Center of gravity. First step. In addition, the double teams and fact that KD catches the ball in isolation also impacts his ability to get to the rim.