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noob cake, I actually started this analysis because you gave me an idea. Sorry to credit you, but I forgot where I read something like this until you mentioned it.
noob cake, I actually started this analysis because you gave me an idea. Sorry to credit you, but I forgot where I read something like this until you mentioned it.
...hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaarumpf.
ambchang is a truth bomb dropper tbh.
^& one of the biggest pussies & assholes around there.
The other part is to analyze the rest of the teams in the league over comparable time spans and see if there are other such disparities. If not then it strengthens the indictment of the league, however if there are numerous other such changes in FT attempts, then it could be shrugged off by the league.
its a private yahoo fantasy basketball forum. i'll copy and paste any relevant replies. most people there seem to think theres no weirdness going on with the free throws. i'm really curious to see what they all have to say. (mostly knicks, bulls, raptors, and sonics [yes sonics] fans in there, so noone really has a reason to complain either way)
Alright folks, so here is the second round of the analysis, which just contains more hilarity.
I took the FTA and divide them by the FGA of every game of the opponents, then compared it against the season average of that team.
For example, let’s say HOU played the DAL March 3, 2012. The Mavs shot 40 FTA that game from 80 FTA, that is a FTA/FGA ratio of 40/80 = 0.5 This compared to 1669 FTA out of 6892 FGA, or 0.242FTA/FGA for the Mavs for the season, and we can see that the Mavs, for that game, shot 106% more FTAs than would have been expected from them based on their season average.
So here come the numbers:
As a league, teams shoot 0.271 FTA/FGA. Some teams shoot more, some less, depending on playing style and such.
For HOU, their opponents, on average, shoots 0.252 FTA/FGA for the season, which means that they foul a little less than the rest of the league, and if you are playing them, you can expect to shoot 6.6% LESS FTA than you would normally get. Well, unless, you play them while they were the 8th seed and in the way of LAL making the playoffs. For the first 44 games of the season, HOU opponents would actually expect to shoot 11% LESS FTAs than they normally do, but then, coincidentally, while LAL was making the run (see 1st post of thread), from Jan 25 to Mar 1, HOU opponents suddenly would find themselves at the FT line 3% more likely then they normally would expect. But then when HOU is the 7th seed, and LAL was NOT the 8th seed, HOU opponents would shoot 5.5% LESS FTA than normal. But the last two games of the season when LAL had a chance to overtake HOU as the 7th seed, HOU opponents, all of a sudden, would shoot 6.9% MORE FTA than normal. What the heck is going on here?
And it’s not like HOU was playing totally different teams in that glorious stretch when they were the 8th seed. In fact, when they played DEN Jan 30th, DEN shot 37% more FTA than they would normally expect. This is only 7 days after HOU played DEN in another game, at which DEN shot 5% LESS FTA than normal. Did the playing styles of DEN and HOU change THAT much in a week? I doubt it.
Moving on to GSW, their opponent FTA/FGA ratio stayed pretty much constant throughout, unless they were playing against LAL in game #80 of the season, when LAL HAD to win to make the playoffs, the LAL shot an astounding 50 FTA on 66 FGA, that is a FTA/FGA ratio of 0.76, or 120% MORE FTAs than LAL would expect (and LAL already has a ridiculously high FTA/FGA as compared to the rest of the league, we will get to that later).
Now let’s look at UTA, the team most screwed in this entire situation … For the season, their opponents shot 10.21% more FTAs than they would expect playing against UTA. This is not surprising, as they are a physical, team that reaches and fouls quite constantly. But then when you break it down, the numbers look, to say the least, a little curious.
UTA’s opponents would shoot 7% more FTA than expected for the first 43 games of the season, then 8 % from games 44 to 59, and then steadily increase to 9.7% for games 60 to 64. Not much to say, is there. Then the fun begins. From games 65 to 80, AKA the period when the Jazz are fighting against LAL for the 8th seed, UTA’s opponents shot 20.4% MORE FTAs than would be expected based on their FGA. Then once the Jazz had the 9th seed locked up, their opponents suddenly find that going to the FTA a lot tougher, as they shot 16% less than they would expect compared to the rest of the season. Real head-scratcher there.
Finally, the league’s golden-and-purple boys. For the season, when you play the LAL, don’t expect to go the FT line that much. Part of it could be because they don’t play much defense under the Mike D’antoni system. Part of it is just because they are the Lakers. But is there a difference throughout the season? You can bet your kid’s entire college fund on that! For the first 43 games of the season, LAL opponents shot 12% less FTA than would be expected. The league has expected this, so no big deal. Then for the next 20 games (games 44 to 63) when the LAL made a push for the playoffs, their opponents shot 22% LESS FTAs than normal. But that’s not enough, because LAL is still not in the playoffs, so the league ratchet up the calls (or is that ratchet down?). If you play LAL while they were the 9th seed trying to go for the 8th, you would expect to shoot 28% LESS FTAs than normal, that’s just part of doing business.
So here you have it, just more evidence of what we already know all along, the league loves the Lakers.
^Only pussies & assholes blame the officiating.
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