Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite in the WCF

[capek]

If Timvp's extreme pessimism turns out to be as wildly unfounded as some of us think, can he pink himself?


























I keed I keed, don't pink me please

[Shaolin-Style]

I'm not seeing it as such a scary matchup. I don't see us getting abused on the inside like everyone is thinking. Gasol is a great defender but honestly Duncan doesn't have to do as much on offense and he can defend just as well.

[objective]

Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.

[-21-]

I agree with the OP.

I don't know why a lot of you think the Spurs will win easily. The Grizzlies should be given appropriate fear. They grit and grind, play physical, and are very scrappy. They will tire the Spurs out, especially the frontcourt which is soft and undersized. If the Spurs do beat them, it'll probably be in a tough 7 game series but I wouldn't be too optimistic about our chances.

[Danny.Zhu]

Grizz in 5 tbh.

[Big Empty]

1. Bonner wont see heavy minutes. 2. No rudy gay or mayo 3. Ginobili dont have a brokend arm 4. Gasol didnt deserve dpoy. 5. We shoot better

[Paulie]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one. How well Duncan plays on offense really has nothing to do with who he's facing, which I realize is rare. Still, with all the pick-and-rolls the Spurs run, regardless of whether they face the best defensive team in the league or the worst, everybody gives Duncan that same 15-17 foot open shot. It's simply a matter of whether he knocks them down or not. If he hits enough of them, then people jump out at him and then he just pump fakes and gets to the rim. He's scored consistently on Gasol in the past and had a couple of big games against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 20 and 13 on nearly 53% shooting.



Neither Gasol nor Randolph are elite shot blockers. They have size, but Parker can still shoot his floater over them. Conley is good defensively, but Parker can still get to the hole and dish, even if he can't consistently finish. Like Duncan, for him it's all about whether he can hit that jumper. He'll get plenty of them.



Ginobili ruined Allen's two years ago playing with a broken arm. No, he's not the same player now, but, again, the initial defender doesn't matter all that much against Manu since he always relies on that screen anyway. With Manu it's about how well a defense plays as a team to cut off his penetration and how they play him on the pick-and-roll. I'm not saying he's going to have a big series vs. the Grizzlies or anything, but how well he plays will depend more on him and the Grizzlies bigs than Allen, tbh.



People haven't been very patient with Tiago even though he had a pretty bad sprained ankle. They wanted him to be 100% from the first game back. If you've been paying attention, he got better and better as the Warriors series went along and both his stats and the Warriors offensive stats reflected that. By the end, Pop relied on Tiago, not Tim down the stretch and we still won. No, Tiago is not physical, and he's not a great rebounder, but he's a very good defender as long as you don't pair him with Bonner. I think this series will be a great test for him, but it could be his coming out party.



Not having to do as much on their guys will just allow them that much more opportunity to freelance and disrupt Memphis' offense. Leonard, in particular, could wreak a lot of havoc with his ridiculous wingspan. Leonard could be the key guy in the series because if Pop wants to switch things up to go small, there's nobody on the Grizz to handle him, really. If Green doesn't play well, then Pop could turn to Manu more and he'll have the freedom to play Ginobili since there's no perimeter guy to wear him out on defense. More Ginobili on offense is never a bad thing. The Spurs have the THREE best wings in this series. That's a ridiculous luxury and it's ridiculous for you to dismiss that.



And two of them won't play, duh. This isn't 2011. We're not this soft, punk-ass team that has to rely on RJ, Bonner and a broken down, undersized Antonio McDyess. We've got a second legit big in Splitter and some girth at the very least (and pretty quick feet) in Diaw. Again, if the bigs falter, we can go small. You can call the 2013 Spurs a lot of things, but they're not soft.



Pop has shown already Neal's leash will be very short. If he's not getting it done it'll either be a three-man rotation on the wings or possibly even McGrady, who's got size. We're not gonna depend on Neal to win or lose us games. Really, you're freaking out about the 9th and 10th men in the rotation.



Scrappiness is the biggest strength of his game. Frankly I'd be a lot more worried about playing him against an offensive juggernaut team we have to match hoop for hoop than a rugged defensive team. This is Joseph's kind of party.



The Spurs starting five is the best defensive quintet in the league. It's kind of a secret because they only played 31 games together due to various injuries and only a 364 minute sample size, but their work together has been staggering. They allow 41% field goals, 32% from 3 and hardly ever foul. They're ridiculous. In fact, when you focus on just the 8-man rotation and throw out Bonner and Neal, the Spurs are as good as any defense in the league and probably better.

As far as offense goes, it's kind of amusing for you to harp on lack of ball movement when the team had 57 assists the past two games. The Spurs have MUCH better three point shooting than the Grizzlies. Also, Memphis struggled to run away from a one-man Thunder team whose best passer was Durant. Both Parker and Ginobili are way better passers than him and Duncan is far more of a post threat than anyone the Thunder had. Memphis' offensive limitations will insure that no matter how well they play, they won't really run away from the Spurs and we'll always be in games against them. One good run (which the Spurs always have in them) and we'll be tied or ahead.



You are making the mistake of judging them based on your most recent memories, and the most recent play of the Grizzlies and are not taking into account a number of factors.

1. The Spurs, the big three in particular, were EXHAUSTED down the stretch of this series, because the schedule of it was obscene. They played 6.3 games in 11 days, with four cross-country flights in between and a ridiculous Sunday afternoon tilt after a Friday night game. If Game 4 was played at night I have no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever that the Spurs would've won it easily and taken the series in five, and you'd have looked at them in a completely different light.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had more rest within their series and less travel, with short flights between Memphis and OKC. In this series the Spurs will get more breaks between the games and again the travel won't be as much of an issue, so the Spurs will look fresher.

2. You're also discounting the opponents. We beat (dominated really) a good Warriors team in the last four games of that series, the same Dubs who beat a very good Denver squad. While I agree that the Warriors weren't much of a squad for most of the regular season and that their coach Mark Jackson is mostly an overrated hype man, they lucked into their best team by having David Lee -- just an atrocious defender -- get injured vs. the Nuggets. If Lee had played big minutes vs. the Spurs our offense would've looked a lot better and really, in all likelihood we wouldn't have even faced the Warriors but rather the Nugs.

The Grizz on the other hand, grinded out four wins against a one-man team. Durant is very good, but he was playing with a pretty shoddy supporting cast and those games still went down to the wire.

3. You're severely underestimating Pop. I rail on Pop sometimes too, but I at least give him enough credit that I strongly doubt he's going to just stand there and let Randolph and Gasol run roughshod over the Spurs inside, especially when that club doesn't have a legit perimeter threat. The doubles will be comin' L.J., oh they'll be a comin.' If the Grizzlies are going to beat us, it will have to be with the shooting of guys like Bayless, Pondexter, Allen and Prince. We're not going to just let them set up camp inside the paint. That's silly. Both these teams are so well-founded defensively that they're going to make each other go to plan C, D, or E for points. The further down the list it goes, the better off we are, because we have better depth in scoring than the Grizzlies do, better shooters and better passers. Good ball movement is the enemy of any top-tier defense and the Spurs don't lack for guys who are ready and willing to pass.

4. We'll have home court advantage. Not something I'd dismiss so easily if I were you. Yeah, the Thunder got us in Game 5 and the Warriors in Game 2, but it's still better to have it than not. At the least the Spurs are always good for one massive run behind their home crowd every game.

5. Finally, we've got the ultimate motivator in revenge. The Grizzlies think they're the biggest and baddest team out there. We get to show them that the 2011 series was mostly a fluke. Ginobili had one arm and Leonard, Green and Splitter weren't around back then. The team is radically different. Again, I said it before, you can call these Spurs a lot of things, but they aren't soft. They're not going to be punked by some team that's "more physical." As we saw last season, if these Spurs lose, it will be to some club who flat out has more offensive talent and athleticism. That's not the Grizzlies.

The damn goods

Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.

I agree 100%. It's about how Pop plays this. That would be our downfall if he plays Bonner and Neal too much and not enough Splitta

[Big Empty]

Spurs in 5

[Brazil]

Grizz are the favorites in the wcf, no question

[FkLA]

Does Parker ever just struggle? Or is he automatically hobbled every time hes not playing well or being aggressive ?

[naico]

Problem is we only have one player that can match Memphis' energy and that's Leonard. This is going to be a very frustrating series for any spurs fan to watch. We'll see a lot of dirt down low. Grabbing, holding, flopping, offensive rebounds, 50-50 calls against us...I actually think Diaw could play a big role here, but then he needs to be aggressive on offense

[Chief]

The grizzlies had rudy gay, now they do not. Spurs sweeped a team with 2 7 footers in the lakers, granted it is not the same type of matchup but I honestly do think we have the better team. Spurs might not have youth but they certainly have heart. The warriors got hot at the right time, I mean stephen curry was shooting like 60% that first game ? then in the 2nd game klay thompson went off, after that Harrison Barnes went off, in game 6 tony parker shot what like 20% ? and Manu the same ? and we won ? Spurs in 6.

[chapnis]

Grizzlies aren't very talented, to win the Spurs "only" have to shut down their bigs.

[benefactor]

Neither team is really an overwhelming favorite in this series tbh. It's tough to call standing back and looking at it because good arguments can be made to support both(Memphis barely getting wins over a broken OKC, Spurs having the gas tank/health to make it through the pounding of what is shaping up to be a very physical series). Neither team is the same as they were in the first playoff meeting. One thing is for sure, the schedule highly favors the Spurs. Not only do the days off give the Spurs rest time before going to Memphis...it gives plenty of time to look closely at the first two games and make adjustments if needed. I don't think the series will really begin until they get to Memphis.

[Horse]

Grizz look good right now cause they just played a one-man team. We have owned them lately and owe those ers. Let's see randolph shot his luck chucks over Duncan who's bigger than him. Splitter will hold his own against gaysol. Then conley is the only other concern. Our bench is better our offense is way better and our D is almost as good as their when we're looked in. It won't be easy but memphis is just the flavor of the week at the moment. I think everyone is forgetting how good golden state really is, remember denver was the team no one wanted to play and they handled them fairly easy.

[exstatic]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

Grizz can't shoot. ZBo, while still good, likely will not be a blender mix of Rodman and Nowitzki this series.

[John B]

I believe Grizz is a better match-up to us than Warriors. Will go back to playing bigs and slowing the tempo. It starts with D. Our interior D is much better than in 2011 with the improvement of Splitter, addition of Diaw and even Baynes. Green and Leonard's lock-on D improved in the Warriors series, and both should be able to check Conley. So if we can keep them in below 80's I think we have enough firepower to beat them. Besides I'm sure the Spurs still has the bad taste of 2011 defeat and AT&T center would be louder than ever. Spurs in 6. Go Spurs Go!

[Spur|n|Austin]

Timvp starting a cliff jump thread before even one game!? You're better than that LJ! Keep the faith, we got this!

I like our chances for the main reason that we can out score them, while our D can play tough and physical against their bigs. Sounds elementary, but those are facts.

[rmt]

One thing going in the Spurs advantage is that they've had the perfect tune-up to deal with the Grizzlies.

Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard presented the over-whelming inside presence that will rear it's head again against the Griz. That being said, Pau and Cryight are arguably a more dominating duo than Marc and Zbo, and the Spurs were able to counter that with a good strategy of doubling and trapping. The same strategy can be employed against Memphis, who are just as impotent with their outside shooting as the Lakers were. If they make shots from the arc, you tip the hat.

The Warriors, on the other hand, prepared the Spurs for defending a perimeter attack and dealing with a high scoring team. While the strategy won't really carry over, it builds the team's confidence that if they can drag down a team that is used to scoring 105 ppg, they can surely lock down a team that struggles to break 85. It will be a defensive battle, to be sure. I'm expecting some ugly games. But the Spurs have the advantage offensively, and I don't see the Grizzlies defensive prowess being enough to overcome that difference.

Finally, 2011 obviously lingers in Spurs fans minds when going up against the Grizzlies. However, as well as ZBo has played, he isn't at the same unconscious level that he was at during 8. Same goes for Gasol. Arthur seems to have regressed, and they don't have Battier there anymore to lock down the perimeter. Personally, I am hoping that the theory of lightning not striking the same place twice will work in the Spurs favor.

I disagree with the LAL similarity. Guarding DH was easy because he can't shoot a jumper or foul shot - just foul him when he's going up with the ball near the basket. Neither MG or Zach has that problem. The smalls won't be able to dig or foul as they did with DH. Spurs will have to REBOUND, REBOUND, REBOUND and push the pace to get easy points before their defense sets up in the half court. TD and TG better be ready - IMO, series rests on them rebounding and defending MG and ZR - Spurs have the advantage everywhere else.

[AFBlue]

Giving too much credit to two players tbh. Between Parker, Green and Kawhi the Spurs should be able to limit Conley and focus on help/team D for the inside players. That leaves Pop to game plan for two big guys...something we've seen in these playoffs already. Don't get me wrong it's a talented front line, just not much else.

In order to be successful:

1. Parker/Green/Leonard will need to lock down Conley
2. Splitter will need to up his physicality on both ends
3. Big 3 will need to force the issue inside offensively
4. Bonner, Neal, and Green will need to hit the wide open shots off penetration.

I think the Spurs can and will do those things consistently enough to take four games in this series before Memphis does...though it may take them to Game 7 to get there.

[The Reckoning]

probably the best argument is that all of the WC teams suck

[TJastal]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one. How well Duncan plays on offense really has nothing to do with who he's facing, which I realize is rare. Still, with all the pick-and-rolls the Spurs run, regardless of whether they face the best defensive team in the league or the worst, everybody gives Duncan that same 15-17 foot open shot. It's simply a matter of whether he knocks them down or not. If he hits enough of them, then people jump out at him and then he just pump fakes and gets to the rim. He's scored consistently on Gasol in the past and had a couple of big games against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 20 and 13 on nearly 53% shooting.



Neither Gasol nor Randolph are elite shot blockers. They have size, but Parker can still shoot his floater over them. Conley is good defensively, but Parker can still get to the hole and dish, even if he can't consistently finish. Like Duncan, for him it's all about whether he can hit that jumper. He'll get plenty of them.



Ginobili ruined Allen's two years ago playing with a broken arm. No, he's not the same player now, but, again, the initial defender doesn't matter all that much against Manu since he always relies on that screen anyway. With Manu it's about how well a defense plays as a team to cut off his penetration and how they play him on the pick-and-roll. I'm not saying he's going to have a big series vs. the Grizzlies or anything, but how well he plays will depend more on him and the Grizzlies bigs than Allen, tbh.



People haven't been very patient with Tiago even though he had a pretty bad sprained ankle. They wanted him to be 100% from the first game back. If you've been paying attention, he got better and better as the Warriors series went along and both his stats and the Warriors offensive stats reflected that. By the end, Pop relied on Tiago, not Tim down the stretch and we still won. No, Tiago is not physical, and he's not a great rebounder, but he's a very good defender as long as you don't pair him with Bonner. I think this series will be a great test for him, but it could be his coming out party.



Not having to do as much on their guys will just allow them that much more opportunity to freelance and disrupt Memphis' offense. Leonard, in particular, could wreak a lot of havoc with his ridiculous wingspan. Leonard could be the key guy in the series because if Pop wants to switch things up to go small, there's nobody on the Grizz to handle him, really. If Green doesn't play well, then Pop could turn to Manu more and he'll have the freedom to play Ginobili since there's no perimeter guy to wear him out on defense. More Ginobili on offense is never a bad thing. The Spurs have the THREE best wings in this series. That's a ridiculous luxury and it's ridiculous for you to dismiss that.



And two of them won't play, duh. This isn't 2011. We're not this soft, punk-ass team that has to rely on RJ, Bonner and a broken down, undersized Antonio McDyess. We've got a second legit big in Splitter and some girth at the very least (and pretty quick feet) in Diaw. Again, if the bigs falter, we can go small. You can call the 2013 Spurs a lot of things, but they're not soft.



Pop has shown already Neal's leash will be very short. If he's not getting it done it'll either be a three-man rotation on the wings or possibly even McGrady, who's got size. We're not gonna depend on Neal to win or lose us games. Really, you're freaking out about the 9th and 10th men in the rotation.



Scrappiness is the biggest strength of his game. Frankly I'd be a lot more worried about playing him against an offensive juggernaut team we have to match hoop for hoop than a rugged defensive team. This is Joseph's kind of party.



The Spurs starting five is the best defensive quintet in the league. It's kind of a secret because they only played 31 games together due to various injuries and only a 364 minute sample size, but their work together has been staggering. They allow 41% field goals, 32% from 3 and hardly ever foul. They're ridiculous. In fact, when you focus on just the 8-man rotation and throw out Bonner and Neal, the Spurs are as good as any defense in the league and probably better.

As far as offense goes, it's kind of amusing for you to harp on lack of ball movement when the team had 57 assists the past two games. The Spurs have MUCH better three point shooting than the Grizzlies. Also, Memphis struggled to run away from a one-man Thunder team whose best passer was Durant. Both Parker and Ginobili are way better passers than him and Duncan is far more of a post threat than anyone the Thunder had. Memphis' offensive limitations will insure that no matter how well they play, they won't really run away from the Spurs and we'll always be in games against them. One good run (which the Spurs always have in them) and we'll be tied or ahead.



You are making the mistake of judging them based on your most recent memories, and the most recent play of the Grizzlies and are not taking into account a number of factors.

1. The Spurs, the big three in particular, were EXHAUSTED down the stretch of this series, because the schedule of it was obscene. They played 6.3 games in 11 days, with four cross-country flights in between and a ridiculous Sunday afternoon tilt after a Friday night game. If Game 4 was played at night I have no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever that the Spurs would've won it easily and taken the series in five, and you'd have looked at them in a completely different light.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had more rest within their series and less travel, with short flights between Memphis and OKC. In this series the Spurs will get more breaks between the games and again the travel won't be as much of an issue, so the Spurs will look fresher.

2. You're also discounting the opponents. We beat (dominated really) a good Warriors team in the last four games of that series, the same Dubs who beat a very good Denver squad. While I agree that the Warriors weren't much of a squad for most of the regular season and that their coach Mark Jackson is mostly an overrated hype man, they lucked into their best team by having David Lee -- just an atrocious defender -- get injured vs. the Nuggets. If Lee had played big minutes vs. the Spurs our offense would've looked a lot better and really, in all likelihood we wouldn't have even faced the Warriors but rather the Nugs.

The Grizz on the other hand, grinded out four wins against a one-man team. Durant is very good, but he was playing with a pretty shoddy supporting cast and those games still went down to the wire.

3. You're severely underestimating Pop. I rail on Pop sometimes too, but I at least give him enough credit that I strongly doubt he's going to just stand there and let Randolph and Gasol run roughshod over the Spurs inside, especially when that club doesn't have a legit perimeter threat. The doubles will be comin' L.J., oh they'll be a comin.' If the Grizzlies are going to beat us, it will have to be with the shooting of guys like Bayless, Pondexter, Allen and Prince. We're not going to just let them set up camp inside the paint. That's silly. Both these teams are so well-founded defensively that they're going to make each other go to plan C, D, or E for points. The further down the list it goes, the better off we are, because we have better depth in scoring than the Grizzlies do, better shooters and better passers. Good ball movement is the enemy of any top-tier defense and the Spurs don't lack for guys who are ready and willing to pass.

4. We'll have home court advantage. Not something I'd dismiss so easily if I were you. Yeah, the Thunder got us in Game 5 and the Warriors in Game 2, but it's still better to have it than not. At the least the Spurs are always good for one massive run behind their home crowd every game.

5. Finally, we've got the ultimate motivator in revenge. The Grizzlies think they're the biggest and baddest team out there. We get to show them that the 2011 series was mostly a fluke. Ginobili had one arm and Leonard, Green and Splitter weren't around back then. The team is radically different. Again, I said it before, you can call these Spurs a lot of things, but they aren't soft. They're not going to be punked by some team that's "more physical." As we saw last season, if these Spurs lose, it will be to some club who flat out has more offensive talent and athleticism. That's not the Grizzlies.

Great post. How are you not at the very least a 3rd team all ST? Agreed. Spurs are going to make short work of this grizz team as long as Pop doesn't get any more funny ideas about playing small/bonnerball.

[elbamba]

The Spurs need to target 95 points every game. If they score 95, I believe they win. Its going to take good performances from Tiago, Green and most importantly Leonard.

The Spurs will need better bench production. Guys like Arthur come in and hit jumpers so Pop cannot go with Bonner on him. Diaw will need to be in there and will need to match him point for point. If the bench can play like they did during the regular season, this will take an enormous amount of pressure off the starters and the Spurs will be in great shape.

Although Splitter has been somewhat weak on his rebounding, his defense, especailly his team defense has been pretty good. He is looking a little more mobile and like he has his footwork back. I expect him to have a good series, but the Spurs cannot turn to Blair if Splitter lets up. This is a series where Baynes might need to see 8-10 minutes of action to counter the Grizzley size.

I like the Spurs chances and think that the Grizzlies were the beneficiaries of a weak sauce LA team and an injured OKC team. Just like the Spurs, they took advantage of the weak and injured teams. I do not think they are playing any better than the Spurs, at least from what I have watched of their games.

[Fabbs]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one.

OPs bar lowering suggestion that Spurs have reached expectation level.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZjpnXcGZ9w

[Fabbs]

Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.

Yep.