Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite in the WCF

[coachmac87]

1. Experience- This team was here last year and I think that experience is going to be HUGE! It's probably the biggest advantage the spurs have. Don't ever under estimate heart of champion..

2. Our best > their best- Spurs have 57 assists on their last 73fgs. That's Spurs basketball and when move the ball like that..almost impossible to beat..Spurs defense also improved and shut down one of the hottest offensive teams in the PO..

3. Big shots- I'm not quite sure who can or will hit big shots for the Grizz..Randolph?? Spurs aren't going to let him beat them. Conley, Prince , Bayless and Allen will have to hit jumpers. Can they?? Spurs role players have been damn good lately on hitting key jump shots

[admiralfats]

Did not read most of the thread, but Zach Randolph ain't 100% either from what I've seen and he just did OK r subpar in most games against Kendrick Perkins and ibaka, who really aren't that great. I think if tiago and Duncan can play gasol and zbo close to even or even below even, other guys just gotta win their matchups. If Duncan be best or 2nd best big in this series? If kawhi kills tayshaun? And really, if tony gets the best of Conley then we've got a great chance. People have mentioned we shoot 3s way better, however they will focus on running us off those threes. I think we need to be diligent and creative in getting all the way to the paint and trying to force fouls. Also making Zbo move on defense by pick and rolling him, and throwing in some bonner possibly could result in some good floor spacing.

[Old School 44]

Round 2, Game 1, and the Golden State series as a whole will be looked upon as the turning point in the playoffs for this years Spurs.
The Spurs defense was incredible in the latter part of the series. Green and Leonard did a lot of growing up in that series. Spurs have multiple defensive weapons to shut down Conley and the offensive players to make him work on D. Pack the paint, have the guards dig on Gasol and ZBo in the post and we should be fine.

The BIGGEST factor for believing the Spurs will defeat the Grizzlies is this: Tim, Manu, Tony and Pop know their championship window is closing. This may be their last chance to get to the finals. Last year, they were rolling and really not tested going into WCF against the Thunder. That combined with a hot shooting Thunder team, left a bad taste in their mouths. This year, the Warriors were just what the Spurs needed - a test going against a loose young team with nothing to lose. The darlings of the playoffs. I also like that the media (and some Spurstalkers) are favoring the Grizzlies. Love the underdog role for these Spurs.

[admiralfats]

If we just run this play, we should be fine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCLW10KUt0M

(Can't believe no one else posted this)

[biskvito]

Didn't Splitter shut down the paint against Memphis, before the injury when he was playing 25+ min?

I think Tiago playing will define Spurs fate in this series. If he keeps out of foul trouble and still play that kind of defense Spurs are pretty good in the series.

Also Baynes needs to show up.

[sehui]

Round 2, Game 1, and the Golden State series as a whole will be looked upon as the turning point in the playoffs for this years Spurs.
The Spurs defense was incredible in the latter part of the series. Green and Leonard did a lot of growing up in that series. Spurs have multiple defensive weapons to shut down Conley and the offensive players to make him work on D. Pack the paint, have the guards dig on Gasol and ZBo in the post and we should be fine.

The BIGGEST factor for believing the Spurs will defeat the Grizzlies is this: Tim, Manu, Tony and Pop know their championship window is closing. This may be their last chance to get to the finals. Last year, they were rolling and really not tested going into WCF against the Thunder. That combined with a hot shooting Thunder team, left a bad taste in their mouths. This year, the Warriors were just what the Spurs needed - a test going against a loose young team with nothing to lose. The darlings of the playoffs. I also like that the media (and some Spurstalkers) are favoring the Grizzlies. Love the underdog role for these Spurs.

I believe the Spurs will beat the Grizzlies, but your point is moot and a bad example on why they will win.

The big 3 and Pop have known their window has been closing for the past 5 years. You really didn't think they didn't consider that thought last year as well? The reason we will win is because we are a much better team from last year and 2011. We have a lot more offensive options, and a stronger defense.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

I haven't read any threads before about a No. 5 seed playing a No. 2 seed and people asking why they should be convinced that the No. 5 seed shouldn't be the overwhelming favorite.

[Russ]

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope.

Hey, at least the Spurs should have "appropriate fear."

[dbestpro]

Hey, at least the Spurs should have "appropriate fear."

Best post in the thread.

[bigfan]

Grizz will be very tough, no doubt. For us to win we need to outmuscle their bigs ( a tall order) and stay hot with Green and Leonard. My X factors will be Neal (we need him now) and maybe even Bayne.

[tlongII]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

I agree with all the points in this post.

[EVAY]

I don't know who is going to win this series. I hope it is us. It might be the Grizz, but I don't see them as overwhelming favorites.

Expectations

1. The games will be decided in the post. Their bigs versus our bigs. Their bigs are huge and mean and I fear for our bigs' health against them

HOWEVER, if their bigs get in foul trouble, we will win.

2. Rebounding will be key also and I don't know if we can win that battle.

3. If Tony's jump shot is falling, we win. If we have to rely on him driving against their bigs in the paint, we lose because they are so big and clog the lane so well.

4. Diaw healthy can be the difference maker in this series. He is not as heavy as their bigs, but he is smarter than them and a far better passer than them.

Do we win? Don't know. I already consider the Spurs' season a success, and that was before the first playoff series.

[703 Spurz]

Gonna have to be a pessimist like timvp.

The Grizzlies are just clicking at the right moment. You could think the Spurs have revenge on their minds, but they just look gassed coming off the Warriors series. So many question marks about the Spurs, while the Grizzlies seem to have things figured out.

I'm thinking Grizz in 6, tbh.

Eh they beat OKC by 6, 6, 6, and 4 points in their games. It'd be different if they beat their ass each game.

[DarrinS]

This series is going to be a dogfight, tbh.

[GritandGrind]

<Grizz fan.I think the Spurs could win this series but I just don't see Duncan surviving it.Also teams keep doing the same thing agains us they leave Prince and Allen open but they both have rings and find ways to win games for us when they double the Bigs.

[romsho]

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.

While I think that Memphis is absolutely the best defensive team in the league, I think its actually a pretty good matchup for the Spurs. They are coming off a difficult series where there were a pile of matchup issues...small, quick guards who can create off the dribble and score in a variety of ways. Tough to game plan against. Memphis? Exact opposite. Other than size, offensively they don't do anything that would make you scratch your head. No creators other than Conley. They are an inside out team, without much of the out part. This is a good thing. After chasing Curry, Thompson and Jack around for six games, I think this is a welcome development. You don't think that will help Parker, Green, Leonard and Manu? I do.

Here's the real difference: while Memphis is better than the Spurs defensively, its not by a wide margin. But offensively? The Spurs are considerably better, more diverse, and can win in a variety of ways. This is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Because of their offensive limitations, Memphis is not a team prone to making huge scoring runs....this will keep the Spurs in games even when struggling offensively. This series all comes down to execution and imposing pace and style of play...which team can do it better. If we see the Spurs team we saw for most of the year, and I think we will, the Spurs will win.

Spurs in 6

[Beaverfuzz]

This series is going 6, GET 'ER DONE!

[davidbowie]

the grizz dont have......................

[davidbowie]

THE HEART OF A CHAMPION

[TJastal]

Grizz will be very tough, no doubt. For us to win we need to outmuscle their bigs ( a tall order) and stay hot with Green and Leonard. My X factors will be Neal (we need him now and maybe even Bayne.

If you want Bayless & Arthur to score 30+ a game for the series sure thing.

Diaw is my x-factor. His ability to adequately check Arthur and provide spacing for the 2nd unit will be key.

[maverick1948]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

I'll try to point out a few things to change your mind. You may not agree with everything but think about them.

Point 1 Duncan was not playing bad against Bogut. That shows in the fact Duncan was hitting shots from all over. Bogut was called for a ton of fouls. You overlooked the games and repeated what the announce teams kept saying. I could never figure out how a man scoring 18 point with 9 boards with shooting averages was being dominated by someone who scored only when Duncan was on the bench or covering someone else.

Point 2 I agree here, Tony is hurting. He has been hurting for the last month to six weeks. But then again so is everyone else. Bumps, bruises and aches are part of the game. But TP has shown one thing in this series that has NEVER been there before. This IS his team now. He is the leader. Horrible game 6, but he played his butt off everywhere else but the scoring column and still hit the shots when they were really needed. Assists and defense were really great. But the one thing that stands out, is the leadership he showed early when he got on to Danny Green and Danny listened. That told me this is TP's team.

Point 3 11 assists 4 late when he too had a bad shooting game. But he still demanded the coverage. Vintage passing, vintage defense and smart play. To me he has the best eyes in the business. He can see the entire court all the time. Age has slowed him but those eyes are still sharp and he can pass.

Point 4 I agree Splitter has to come up bigger against the Grizz. But we still have our Donk on the bench. Baynes can impact the game with 6 hard fouls. Diaw and Bonner will force the Grizz out from under the basket. It only takes 1 basket from 3 point land to force that to happen. But this is the one area that scares me. Big D.

Point 5 Kawhi and Danny can affect this game. They are going to get matchups that will allow them to cheat on the Grizz bigs. Kawhi will get boards and may get steals that lead to dunks. Their defense will keep the Grizzles offense out of sync.

Point 6 You are right here but Diaw's savey and Bonner's 3 point shooting could note the word could make a difference also.

Point 7 and 8 combined. CJ is our back up PG. His defense is great and he is starting to impress me more with his shooting. Neal will see action when we need scoring and pray he doesnt blow too many defensive assignments.

Point 9 The Grizz try and control the pace of the game. They are a grind it out in the half court setting. Spurs can play that game, but can play up tempo as well. I look for Pop to push the game forcing the Grizzles to play a faster pace. As for the Spurs slumping for the late, 103.0 average for season, 102.8 for the 10 playoff games and we have yet to shorten the rotation to less than 10 players per game. Minutes for starter are up about 2 to 3 each but not much different than regular season.

Point 10 Ok we didnt have a good ending to the season but at times we were not really giving the effort with the injuries we were playing each game. The Spurs know exactly who they are. They are a team that can adapt to what ever they need when they need. Grizz are not that type of team. To me there are not a lot of question marks only Pop mixing up some lineups late in the season to get court time for players.

I look for a 6 game series. Spurs will win 2, Grizz will win 2 of the 1st 4 games. Then the series is on. Spurs will steal 1 in Memphis and win game 6 to end it.

Looking at it from 2 different views, I think we are a better TEAM than anyone else in the league. We dont depend on 1 or 2 players to carry us every night. We have great role players who step up when the time is needed. See game 6 against GSW. Leanard, Green, Joseph, Splitter and Neal (yes Neal) gave great minutes to the game last night.

[mosdef17]

What a joke of a thread...

[DarrinS]

Point 5 Kawhi and Danny can affect this game. They are going to get matchups that will allow them to cheat on the Grizz bigs. Kawhi will get boards and may get steals that lead to dunks. Their defense will keep the Grizzles offense out of sync.

I agree.

[milkyway21]

6 reasons for now:

1. HOMECOURT ADVANTAGE - San Antonio has won 16 of 17 home games against Memphis.

2. SAN ANTONIO LOST TO MEMPHIS 2X this season by just 2 & 3 pts and won 2x, (one by 21 pts.well, that was after the $250K fine)
3. The Spurs is ONE of the few teams to score 100 against them.
4. Memphis has no 3-pt scoring threat.
5. This is a different Spurs team than they last met. This one has so many players who can score from the wings. But if they are afraid to shoot from there then it's another story ex Bonner.

6. While Memphis is better in defense, San Antonio is better in scoring. They can win this series from there. No need to grind inside against those guys if our shots from the wings are falling.

Spurs in 6..

[rayray2k8]

You just have to.. Believe, LJ.