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It's going to be very very difficult to feel optimistic heading into this series.
Why is anyone worried about Timmy? He's been playing better and against bigger and better frontlines. hibbert is a career 12ppg scorer and he killed the heat frontline so why wont Timmy?
It's going to be very very difficult to feel optimistic heading into this series.
George was also the best perimeter player for Indiana and their best shooter. It made sense to collapse on him. Crowding Leonard isn't as big of a no-brainer if means helping off Green or giving Parker another driving lane.
Yea especially if you go outta your way to make finals game threads
Spurs need to pour it on defensively and get as many transition pts as possible.
With green and kahwi stepping-up the d, spurs have the talent to make life difficult.
i actually like CoJo for his d in this series and Neal can guard battier all day.
on o we should have our way in the paint, and that goes for all our players (TP and Manu included). Challenge will be to get in the paint. Miami has the best perimeter d ever, so that's why the thunder struggled. Attack a gimpy wade with manu and watch wade get frustrated a go dirty and get suspended.
without a B+ or better Manu we lose in 5.
im betting the rest and level of comp brings out the best
this, tbh
Ever since the acquisition of T-MAC I've theorized that Pop might use T-Mac to defend LeBronda. Similar in size Tracy is 6'8"+ and though T-MAC won't be that quick with LeBronda's 'first step', he could prove to be a capable defender. How was Tracy's D back in the day?
--And, WHAT exactly did Pop mean by referring to T-MAC as "Insurance"?
Better call Phil Collins, because "I can feel it coming in the air [Thursday] night" that we'll find out.
Although it is unlikely pop will use tmac to defend lebron, I would prefer for him to try it in the first two games than do it later as a desperation move.
From the ESPN link: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2013...win-nba-finals
"Strauss: I'll go Heat in 7, but not with any degree of confidence. The Spurs are a theoretical Heat-buster of a team. Miami is shaky at defending 3-pointers; San Antonio shoots 3s well. Miami likes to shoot 3s; San Antonio defends the 3. Throw in San Antonio's solid front line and quick point guard and we're looking at a lot of factors that gave Miami trouble over the years. But only one team has LeBron James, and it's the one I'm picking.
Wallace: Heat in 7, but don't hold me to it. I've been saying for six months that if the Spurs are healthy they're the one team with the perfect combination of le experience, great point guard play, effective post play, good 3-point shooting and exceptional coaching it would take to knock off the Heat.
Windhorst: Heat in 7. This is way more of a guess than usual though because these teams have played exactly one real game over the past two seasons, and even that one was an outlier because of crazy 3-point shooting. But you have LeBron at the top of his game and with full confidence and experience in these spots. It's hard to rationally pick against that."
These side-show ponies and their irritating ambivalence is mind-numbing.
It's like these last three are saying: "My Heart says the Spurs are going to win, but on paper, the sexy pick is the Heat".
Spurs in 5-6.
There's nothing wrong with people picking the Heat based on them having James. Don't underestimate him.
The Warriors were playing great perimeter defense. The Heat are not going to be able to have nearly as good on the ball defense in a one on one. They are going to need to double. Their 'swarming' defense consists of a very hard hedge that will chase a high pnr all the way to the halfcourt corner if it could. The solution to that is easy as the Pacers showed us. If you can get the ball past the hedge to a big with hands then they are ed. TnT are great roll men. They can finish but more importantly when they bring more help from the weakside they will find open threes. That is why Miami sucks at defending the three point line: beat the hedge and you will have two wide open shooters on the perimeter.
Miami's defense as demonstrated in the season metrics. Is overrated. It's good but not great.
I think a huge issue for the Spurs in the Finals is the extent to which Pop can afford to keep both Tiago and Tim on the floor if the Heat choose to go small. If they play Battier or Lebron at the 4 for stretches, the Spurs have to be able to make them pay for that on the offensive end without getting torched defensively. Like Vogel could in the last round with West and Hibbert, Pop has to be able to dictate the matchups with his bigs, which depends -- to a very large extent -- upon making Miami consider smallball a substantial risk.
If the Spurs have to play small against the Heat, I think they're in big trouble.
Spurs fans are nuts to think people should be picking the Spurs. Spurs can win, but get real if you think they are favorites.
Of course - MIA is probably the best small ball team of all time. Lebron at the PF spot is one of the great mis-matches in the modern NBA. The key is: Can Tiago deliver like a Hibbert? Can the two bigs be mobile enough to guard Bosh/smaller guys? David West is an underrated defender and more mobile on the perimeter than a Tiago which is why you probably saw Bosh struggle. Bosh is someone I am very worried about. Hopefully a few guys can guard him effectively.
If the Heat can get away with LeBron at the 4 for the majority of the series than the Spurs are in trouble tbh. Big part of OKC's success last year is when Brooks realized he can take Splitter out of the series by putting f'n Fish on him. It hurt the offensive rhythm and our bench unit as well.
Tiago & Boris will have to punish LeBron and keep Miami big, but I admittedly have my doubts that either can. It's the #1 key for a Spurs victory IMO.
Tim needs to be able to hide on Haslem or Birdman. I don't like him defending Bosh near the 3pt line and giving LeBron/Wade open lanes to the rim.
I'm much more worried about how the Spurs can defend Miami than scoring on the Heat tbh.
Battier's ability to find his offense will play a big part in deciding that. If he's as lifeless as he's been lately, they can put Duncan or Splitter on him and play far enough off to provide help defense in the post. They might have to pull Ray Allen or Mike Miller off the bench if they want to play small, which forces LeBron to be the one to bang around in the paint.
If we can't impose our bigs on them then our bigs are worthless. I agree that small ball signals doom.
Although Wade played better in game 7, I don't think he has been sandbagging. I think that was the results of injections before the game and/or at halftime. It was game 7, I would not be surprised to find out that he needs that to get the most out of his body. How he plays in the first few games may prove me wrong, but I think he is still injured.
All that being said, I prefer Leonard on James for the later quarters, but otherwise just try to prevent the other guys from beating the Spurs.
For sure. And when Bosh is the biggest guy on the floor for Miami (i.e. most of the time), it will be interesting to see if we get a fair number of 4 Down calls.
But it's also Tony's series. The Heat don't exactly have the ideal guy to chase Tony through all those screens. And switching just puts him against someone who will have even more trouble with his quickness. He should be able to create a lot of opportunities off of penetration, either for himself or finding an open man through the hole in the rotation. The Heat are really good defensively at taking away what a team is good at, but the Spurs are good at things they'll have trouble taking away. And Tony's ball movement also does a good job of getting Timmy the ball with good position, because his defender can't stay set on a motion play.
Ginobili should FEAST on their bench players! If he can turn back the clock just a COUPLE years we may end up knockin them out in a stunning 5 rounds.
Great point. Tim Duncan should dominate. He has to command the double for us to have a chance at open threes.
I also agree that a huge key is shutting down wade with kawhi.
Green on LBJ, TD sags off Andersen/Haslem & doubles in the post.
KL holds Wade to 15 a game on terrible efficiency, & wins in rebounding, blocks, steals, and TOs.
Splitter/Diaw hold Bosh to 18 & 10, and both destroy MIA in the PnR.
TP matches LBJ in scoring.
TD/Manu >> Wade/Bosh puts us over the top.
My keys:
The Heat's best 3 offensive players (LBJ, Wade, Bosh) will be defended by the Spurs' best 3 defensive players (Duncan, Leonard, Green). Two of those three do not have to carry the Spurs' offense, so they can focus most of their energy defending. That's a big plus for the Spurs.
The Spurs' best two offensive players (Parker, Duncan) attack the Heat's worst two defensive positions (PG, C/PF). Cole and Chalmers will get destroyed by Parker, meanwhile they will not give him much trouble on the other end, allowing Parker to expend most of his energy running the offense. Duncan will have to D' up Bosh, so he'll have to split his energy, but he won't have much length or strength stopping him from scoring with just Haslem, Bosh, and Birdman defending him.
Manu's decline is luckily matched by Wade's ailing health. Wade will probably still have the edge, but it's not a very big edge which it would have been last season.
No one on the Spurs is severely hurt. Leonard has the knee thing and Parker isn't quite 100%, but those are mostly pretty minor things. Wade's injury seems to be at a medium injury and Bosh is playing soft.
Negative keys:
Leonard will probably never "stop LeBron". We all love Kawhi, but he's still inexperienced and he's no Bowen. LeBron's going to kill Kawhi at least twice. I forsee foul trouble in his future too, artificially manufactured by the refs or not.
2/3/2 format benefits the team with HCA both imo and historically.
The refs are never pro-Spurs (to say the least), we're playing the Heat, and this is Stern's last Finals as commisioner. Terrible combination.
"Experience" isn't the Spurs' ally anymore. The Heat actually have much more recent playoff experience than the Spurs do.
And lastly, we're forced to listen to the Heat's terrible PA announcer annoyingly scream Heat player names every time they score a basket. Get your remotes ready to mute that dip .
I pick Spurs in 6. Winning 1 of the first two games is only sufficient if we think that the Heat will not win a single road game. I like starting the series in Miami - it increases the amount of pressure upon them. The expectations of most casual fans and casual analysts is that the Heat will win. However, the Cleaveland Heat / Miami Cavaliers cannot beat the San Antonio Spurs in 2013. The Heat have beaten the lEastern conference teams in the playoffs largely with LeBron and 4 guys. They cannot beat the Spurs like that. Wade and Bosh will need to have great series for the Heat to win.
Therefore, I think that we want to turn LeBron into a scorer not a facilitator. LeBron's first instinct is to pass - although he is a great and efficient scorer who shoots well at the 3 at this point in his career. He is more like Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan. If we shut down Wade and Bosh, then we will win the series. We need to avoid turnovers that lead to fast breaks. We need to protect the rim and defend the paint well. We want them to shoot contested long 2's. We must contain dribble penetration because our collapsing defense will open up their 3 point shooters.
Bosh and Haslem will both knock down uncontested 15 foot mid range jumpshoots all day. Play them as midrange shooters. Bosh is not an efficient 3 point shooter - so we want him taking those shots . Over the long run, it will help us more than them if he takes those shots.
They will try to pack the paint. To some extent, we need our 3 point shooters to hit shots in Miami to loosen that up some. Tony will need to prove that he can consistently hit open midrange shots to keep them honest. However, he cannot fall in love with the jumpshot. Tim needs to do most of his work on the post in this series.
The Heat interior defenders turned Roy Hibbert into an offensive world beater. Tim Duncan is one of the very best post players to ever pick up a basketball. Although the last several years, he has favored his pretty consistent jumpshot (esp top of the key as well old faithful off the glass). However, in this series, the Heat are limited in their options to defend him. Joel Anthony, while a great shot blocker, is only 6'9" and cannot guard Timmy in the post. Birdman lacks the iq and the size to guard Timmy in the post. They will have a few spectacular blocks but Timmy will go full beat mode on them in the post. The Heat's weaknesses are precisely in the areas in which the Spurs are strongest. Chalmers is decent at guarding point guards, but not great. He cannot slow down Tony Parker at his peak. No one else even has a chance. I hope that they put LeBron on Tony because LeBron's size will hurt him with pnr defense and screens. He cannot turn with the same agility that Tony has. Quickness and speed are different. Tony is quicker and faster than LeBron. Tony Allen is a much better TP defender and he could not slow down Tony at all. LeBron has even less of a chance.
We cannot go small. Tiago must be in the game and play 30 plus minutes along with Timmy. This series is not for DeJuan Blair. Matt Bonner is an incredibly poor defender and a one trick pony. If he hits his 3's, then he opens up the paint and he is worth keeping in the game. If he does not, then pull him early on in the series. T-Mac might still have game, but it takes so much time to learn the Spurs system that this series is probably not for him either. Diaw will need to play heavy minutes. Neal does not need to see the floor this series. He can practice towel waving with Patty.
If Manu starts scoring, this could be a quick series.
Kawhi and Danny will take turns on LeBron. However, the emphasis should be on shutting down Wade.
Some role players (Kawhi, Danny, and a couple others) will need to play well and shoot the 3 well in Miami for us to win a game there.
We must keep in mind that the Heat role players have played well on the road and hit some big shots.
I think your grossly overrating Green's defense. He didn't stop or as you put it "dominate" Curry. Curry's two bad ankles stopped Curry. I'll say it again, the Spurs would be doing themselves a great injustice if they didn't put their best defender on the opposing team's best player. Leonard doesn't need to stop Lebron to be successful. He just needs to make him work for everything he gets. Green would just get abused. He's much better off guarding Wade who's playing with a bum knee. And you'd rather see James win it by himself? His game has evolved since he last played in Cleveland. He's not the "do it all" himself player and now gets his teammates involved early in games and waits until the 4th to become a pure scorer. Back to Wade, he isn't the player he was earlier in the season. If that changes, the Spurs will have to adjust accordingly.
Last edited by Hoops Czar; 06-05-2013 at 12:31 AM.
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