I'll be beyond elated if the Spurs win tonight. But I'll also be pumped to have a Game 7 for the ages. I think that would be the ultimate stage for Manu to thrive and LeBron to wilt.
That's what I'm saying you dumb . Dem Heats are the heroes. The King is the ultimate hero. Everyone thought the Spurs system was going to expose the Heat. All they exposed is their superior manhood. King is trying to stretch this out so that he can keep slangin' dem headphones and making det bonus money.
The Spurs don't care about fame, publicity, stats, individual awards or their place in history -- they just care about les. They've spent seven years of constant hard work to get back to this point. They've fought through injuries, age, and the RJ era. Now they're back, one win away. So close they can taste it. There's no way they don't rise to this moment and get this done.
Spurs need one more great team effort .the heat will b bringing it tonight
If the Spurs keep their turnovers to fewer than 14 tonight, they will probably be bringing home another LOB. Things get kind of iffy around 14, and more than that probably means a Game 7.
Last game, the Heat took 16 more FGA's than the Spurs. Near the end of the third quarter, the Heat had taken 15 more FGA's, so at least the Spurs kept it close near the end. Some of the difference is possessions that end in FT's, but most of it was just possessions where the Spurs didn't get a shot up. If the Heat hadn't shot around 40%, all those extra shot attempts would have been enough for them to win the game. The Spurs need to keep the FGA differential to around 7 or fewer tonight.
The Spurs only got 7 points from their bench in Game 5. I don't look for the starting five to put up 107 points between them again. If the Heat really do say on Danny Green, it's going to force someone else to come up big. That probably means Neal or Diaw. Neal never saw a shot that he didn't like, and Diaw never saw one he wanted to take. If I just HAD to choose between the two, I'd take the guy who at least gets shots up. So I really hope Gary Neal's shot is working. It would be a beautiful night for Tiago to finally step up. I'm not very optimistic about that, but if the Heat do move out to cover Green, they won't be able to pack the paint, so maybe...
The one simple thing that Tiago could do is just box out. The Heat got 7 more offensive boards than the Spurs in Game 5, and they aren't know to be a rebounding team. Worse, the Heat scored on just about every one of them. There's no excuse for them having that kind of advantage. Kawhi has been great from the SF position, and Tim picked it up last game. But for the Spurs to win this one, the whole team is going to have to commit to limiting the Heat to one shot per possession.
What I really want more than anything is to see Tim come out like he did in that OT against Golden State. He's always had big shoulders, and this is the time for him to do it again. He's missed a lot of shots at or near the rim in this series. Hopefully tonight makes up for all of that, and those shots are falling. And I wish he would remember that 15-footer off the glass. If Tim comes out strong, he can get the rest of the team fired up like no one else. And if he comes out strong, I think we'll start seeing that hopeless look on some of the Heat role players early in the game.
I still like the Spurs' chances tonight, no matter what the analysts say.
these were my magic numbers in game 5:
- Manu 20+pts
- Green 5+ 3ptrs
If either one happens, IMO we win the game.
The count starts now....
Cosigned.
timvp making a common error in modeling the events as independent. For instance, if the Spurs lose Game 6 it's likely from Parker getting injured, in which case Game 7 is much worse than an 80% chance of a Heat win tbh.
Fair points, but is it reasonable to expect MIA's big 3 to continue with monster games as well? With Ginobili stepping up, he could actually be the missing piece. Spurs were winning with Tim/Danny/TP production even with Manu barely chipping in. If Manu can fill the Danny void and Danny do a little better than Manu had been pre-breakout game, Spurs should be ok. IMO, MIA's big 3 have less margin for error. They cant have a sub par outing.
He's been a burger of fail with some fail-sauce all playoffs, that's for sure.
Unless you think the Spurs have less than a 33% chance per game of winning these last two games, SA is the favorite now. .33 + .33 / 2 = .5.
"If you shoot at king, you must kill him"
Ralph Waldo Emerson
We have shot at the King... Now it is time to kill him!
My initial reaction after the Spurs won game 5 was that the Heat were likely to have the superior motivation and drive in game 6, a la games 2 and 4. However, the more I think about it, the more I think the Spurs will come out with an equal amount of passion and determination to finish this series off. The Big 3 especially...they're so close to another ring they can taste it. They will be focused and they will be ready.
That said, they're going to need a complete game to finish off a very talented Heat team. They're going to need top-notch defense, plus Spurs-style offensive execution and passing. If they can keep the ball moving, trust the system, and hit the open shot, they've got a great chance to make thousands of die-hard Spurs fans weep in joy.
Spurs are up 3-2 but the Heat are still favored. I agree with that. The Heat have demonstrated they bounce back hard from losses. And this one will be at home too. I expect an energy and intensity level similar to game 2... maybe even more since they get an additional "elimination game" boost. After that, game 7's in the finals historically go to the home team. So while the Spurs are up, I feel uneasy because the Heat won't go quietly in game 6, setting up a game 7 where the Spurs are at an extreme disadvantage.
The Spurs need to minimize their mistakes and pray Lebron continues to defer. A couple of TO's here and there and the Heat will explode to a double digit lead. They also need to somehow channel all the improbable stats from their wins during the series: 4 TO's in game 1, hot shooting from Green and Neal in game 3, and Manu not playing like a dead corpse in game 5. Most important factors are continue playing stellar defense and limiting turnovers, which should limit the Heat to 80-90 points, well within striking distance.
I think you're wrong about the Miami big 3 DPG. Heat role players will step up at home. I wouldn't be surprised if Chalmers went off on us again. Spurs big 3 all have to play a near perfect game tonight.
Be happy that timvp still thinks the Heat have a better chance to win.
Me? I think the Heat will get up early and that the Spurs grind it out and end this thing tonight.
Don't "gas up the riverboats" yet, but we're almost there.
106-82 Spurs, girl
Perhaps, but the Spurs were 2-2 with one of their big 3 completely MIA (pun). Sure they had other guys stepping up, but before the series if anyone would have posted Manu's averages through 4 games along with the fact MIA's bench averaging 30 PPG on 50+% shooting, most would say Spurs got swept.
Fact is, with those things happening, Spurs were 2-2. If MIA's big 3 don't put up a lot of numbers, they are far more likely to lose IMO than if the Spurs big 3 do the same. Both are critical, I just feel MIA's big 3 definitely has a lot more pressure.
I believe
I just bet $50 to win $120 when the Spurs win tonight. +240 was just too hard to resist. Spurs are gonna bring it tonight.
Spurs bench/Others (Leonard, Green, Neal, Splitter) have soo much swag right now, it's hard not to favor the Spurs even with Miami at home. Miami Big 3 have to make up for the chasm of difference our bench and our Others have made during the last two games. Danny Green should be series MVP for sure.
Come on motha as come on....
Here's what I was really trying to say - the first thing on the list is turnovers. If the Spurs limit their TO's to less than 14, I think they win the game. Period.
If they give up more than 14 TO's, they're going to need to make a couple of other things on that list to go their way. Because if they give up 16-17-18 TO's again (on the road, in a closeout game), there's no way they are holding Miami to 92 points. Which means somebody off the bench has to have a better game. If they give up that many TO's AND the second chance points, it's going to be an avalanche, and the Spurs would have to hit everything they look at to win.
If the refs allow all the belly-bumping and elbow-slapping (and they probably will), the Heat are going to get some steals, and fast-break points. I think the Spurs would be wise to pay special attention to boxing out from the very beginning, and getting a bench player some points early wouldn't hurt, either.
Sprint, full speed ahead, we win!
I don't know what to expect tonight but it's Miami's move to show their hand. If they can't stop the isolation dribble drives the Spurs ran in Game 5, they will have problems...unless the Spurs have a poor shooting night. I will thoroughly enjoy watching the moves and counter-moves. The only fly in the ointment for the Spurs will be if the Heat's fierce physical pressure causes them to wilt and cry about frequent non-calls.
Kenny Mauer lets them play, especially at the rim but Joey Crawford should balance that out somewhat. If the Spurs can keep their wits, play as a team and be strong with the ball, Spurs will win tonight!!!
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
