Random thoughts and stats after 20 games

[rascal]

I'm pretty sure if Spurs had lost to all teams over 50% that would be the case

It's called picking and choosing numbers, ala timvp

No, it shows the spurs have their losses against the best teams in the league.

[will_spurs]

One aspect that worries me is the starting line-up issue. It's really the Spurs worst line-up short of garbage time ones. Tony's playmaking isn't where it used to be and Green is a total scrub, but it also looks like Duncan and Splitter don't play so well when paired (maybe again that was due to the fact that Duncan couldn't score anything more than 2ft away from the basket). Maybe it's going to improve, but right now it doesn't make a lot of sense. I'd really like to see Belli start over Green to see how that would work.

[racm]

One gets the feeling that the fact that defenses aren't letting Green get wide open is why the starters' team offense is dependent on Duncan's J, why they can't generate FTAs, and why Green's not shooting well.

Green getting covered on D means Parker has less room to drive, defenders are less likely to collapse into the lane, lowering the chance for TP to draw a foul.

KL's 8 FTAs are a good sign, though. Granted, against Milwaukee, but still.

[ginobilized]

You rock, Bruno
Thanks!
Are you proud of your fellow countryman Boris Diaw and his aggressive start this season?

[Chinook]

One gets the feeling that the fact that defenses aren't letting Green get wide open is why the starters' team offense is dependent on Duncan's J, why they can't generate FTAs, and why Green's not shooting well.

Green getting covered on D means Parker has less room to drive, defenders are less likely to collapse into the lane, lowering the chance for TP to draw a foul.

KL's 8 FTAs are a good sign, though. Granted, against Milwaukee, but still.

Green getting covered gives Parker more room to drive, not less. Collapsing into the lane prevents drives.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Danny Green is also worth mentioning. In 468 minutes, he went 6 times to the line. 153 players have played that much minutes this year and Green is dead last among these players in FTA/min.

Bruno, couldn't you say a big part of Green not getting many FT attempts is because he rarely attacks the rim as he doesn't have much of an in between game once you run him off the 3 point line?

Excellent write up, really appreciate the time and effort you put into this

[taps]

Bruno, I sound antagonistic toward you in this post but I appreciate the discussion you've started here & the advanced metrics you present. It is a great post. The largest portion of your post is dedicated to Manu's decline. Passes the eye test to me, and has been better than last season. The best thing is his 3P shooting is back after a year and a half & no crazy shots. Plus he looks like a mobile defender again. I am a Texan so I don't have a horse in this race as to one particular player, butI find it strange you choose to focus on Manu without mentioning much Parker's dip in ppg & assists (1 less per game) . He is still the leader in both those categories and he's shooting 38% from 3, but, c'mon.

There is an obvious issue here in this kinda small sample size but I don't think Manu factors in that heavily. I think it's shared thing mainly b/w Duncan, Leonard, Green, & (least of all) Parker.

Random thought: damn I wish Tiago could've been healthy against Indy. West's shooting always declines when it's over a 7 footer, especially such a good mobile one like Tiago. Injuries are a part of the game though.

[Bruno]

Bruno, couldn't you say a big part of Green not getting many FT attempts is because he rarely attacks the rim as he doesn't have much of an in between game once you run him off the 3 point line?

His inability to drive to the basket is surely a big part why he doesn't get FTs. Drives is the primary way for a perimeter player to get FTs.

With their new tracking system, the NBA is now counting player drives so you cna now look at that.

Number of drives for Spurs main perimeter players (with in parenthesis number of drives per 36 minutes):
Parker: 194 (11.6)
Ginobili: 61 (4.6)
Leonard: 42 (2.6)
Belinelli: 24 (1.9)
Green: 16 (1.2)
Mills: 12 (1.3)

With as little drives than that, Green not getting to the line more is quite logical. What isn't helping him is also is inability to score fast break points (a situation where players draw fouls). He is last among Spurs perimeter players in fast break points scored per 36 minutes at 1.2.

On a side, regarding drives, 2 other Spurs players stand out:
- While all the other bigmen have less than 10 drives, Diaw has 43 drives this season which makes him the third most prolific Spurs "driver". He is at 3.4 drives per 36 minutes. Another sign of his new aggressiveness.
- In garbage time, Cory Jospeh has 27 drives. With only 113 minutes played this year, it means 8.6 drives per 36 minutes.

[Bruno]

You rock, Bruno
Thanks!
Are you proud of your fellow countryman Boris Diaw and his aggressive start this season?

Thanks.

"Proud" is too strong but, yeah, I'm happy to see him doing well. Diaw is so much better and fun to watch when he isn't overly passive like he has been with Spurs in the past.

[superbigtime]

Finally an intelligent well written post around here. Thank you. Great observations. appreciate it.

[Bruno]

Bruno, I sound antagonistic toward you in this post but I appreciate the discussion you've started here & the advanced metrics you present. It is a great post. The largest portion of your post is dedicated to Manu's decline. Passes the eye test to me, and has been better than last season. The best thing is his 3P shooting is back after a year and a half & no crazy shots. Plus he looks like a mobile defender again. I am a Texan so I don't have a horse in this race as to one particular player, butI find it strange you choose to focus on Manu without mentioning much Parker's dip in ppg & assists (1 less per game) . He is still the leader in both those categories and he's shooting 38% from 3, but, c'mon.

I don't find the largest portion of my post is about Manu but if it's your feeling...
And the part about Manu isn't about a decline, I'm saying he is playing well. The part about Manu is about a change in his game.

Manu was one of the best guard in the NBA at getting at the line over the past decade. This year he is averaging 1.6 FTA/36 min when, for example, a 39 years old Derek Fisher is at 1.8 FTA/36 min. I find it's worth talking about it.

Regarding Parker, there isn't a lot to say. He isn't as dominant as last season but he is still playing very well. His drop in production isn't that big. He is also playing 3 minutes less per game and has been given a game off which is a result of Pop wanting to take it easy with him earlier this season after his busy summer.

[objective]

- In garbage time, Cory Jospeh has 27 drives. With only 113 minutes played this year, it means 8.6 drives per 36 minutes.

Probably because Joseph passes up a of a lot of open threes, even wide open threes.

[Chinook]

I'd venture that Green is taking significantly fewer two pointers this season. He hasn't been getting hit on as many cuts nor has he been shooting many twos off screens. It's not surprising he isn't getting fouled much when he takes almost no contested shots.

[DPG21920]

I find Manu's "new" game to be a non-issue. Any dip in FTA's per game has more than been offset by the number of overall drives (I am willing to bet he is driving every bit as much as last year if not more) and how amazing he has been at finishing the drives.

Meaning, whether you draw 4 fouls a game and finish drives at 55%, or draw 1 foul a game and finish drives at 74%, your net benefit/impact remains largely unchanged. The key is he is driving and the drives are resulting in points at a good level. You may argue drawing a foul is better because it puts you in the bonus and other players in foul trouble, but that is a different argument.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I find Manu's "new" game to be a non-issue. Any dip in FTA's per game has more than been offset by the number of overall drives (I am willing to bet he is driving every bit as much as last year if not more) and how amazing he has been at finishing the drives.

Meaning, whether you draw 4 fouls a game and finish drives at 55%, or draw 1 foul a game and finish drives at 74%, your net benefit/impact remains largely unchanged. The key is he is driving and the drives are resulting in points at a good level. You may argue drawing a foul is better because it puts you in the bonus and other players in foul trouble, but that is a different argument.

I agree. Opponents are still playing the pass off the ball and he has improved his midrange game. He's getting his points.

[polandprzem]

Very very good Mr Bruno



U still contributes here at the top

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice write-up!

I think the statement wins will come. The fact that the Spurs have 17 wins after 21 games, no matter what the form in which they've come, says a lot to me.

The vets, from my point of view, are trying to stay healthy. Your points about Ginobili were very good. I think Manu is not going all-out, effort-wise. He's keeping something in the tank. Timmy is too. I think these guys will open up their games when April rolls around.

[PlayNando]

when i saw random thoughts i thought it was timvp...

[PlayNando]

Finally an intelligent well written post around here. Thank you. Great observations. appreciate it.

It takes a Frenchman to make an intelligent post, tbh! International intelligence.

[jjktkk]

Thanks Bruno.

[PlayNando]

Thanks Bruno.

[weeks]

i miss the game grades honestly

[Skull-1]

It takes a Frenchman to make an intelligent post, tbh! International intelligence.

Frenchmen aren't men. But they are morons, count on that. Racist jerk.

[PlayNando]

Frenchmen aren't men. But they are morons, count on that. Racist jerk.

GTFO. YOU ON BRUNO LIKE THAT, YOU WILL BE PUNISHED.

IS TONY PARKER NOT A MAN????

IS BORIS DIAW NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

IS NANDO DE COLO NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

GOD DAMN IT, MAN. YOU SOUND LIKE A MORON. OH, WAIT, YOU ARE ONE, TBH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[keepinitwill]

The team is looking good. It's all about the playoffs. I like how Pop is resting players and keeping the minutes down. Once we get there we will see how good this team is. We have lost to the top teams we played so far, but I think Pop is trying to hide his hand. Let those teams think they are better than us right now, but it will be different story when it counts.