Yeah, it wasn't specifically aimed at you.
Yes. Splitter and Diaw are much better. That should allow the Spurs to play big. Miami having no Miller means Battier will play big minutes. If Splitter can win that match-up, the Heat will have the same defensive problems OKC is having. Also having both Mills and Beli instead of Neal allows Pop to diversify his small-ball lineups, meaning no need for Beli on Chalmers.
the goods. any adjustments you see from OKC going forward?on the insights as well, interesting stuff though above my pay grade.
Do you often apologize beforehand?
Yeah, Splitter's play is going to be crucial. Last year he couldn't really find ways to be impactful against Miami, and we almost won despite that.
When earlier in the year we were discussing the potential matchup with OKC (assuming health), I was talking about how key it was for Splitter to be able to impose himself, to force OKC to go big (with Perkins + Ibaka, or Collison + Ibaka). In 2012, OKC played small and pretty much disrespected Tiago, and they got away with it because Splitter wasn't scoring against smaller defenders.
The same applies to Miami. If Splitter becomes an issue (wins the matchup against Battier, forces them to adjust), Miami will have to play Bosh + Birdman or Bosh + Haslem more, which favors the Spurs as well. We are fit to play small-ball, but if we take teams like Miami/OKC out of their small ball comfort zones, we stand a much better chance. It's why the Pacers have given Miami fits despite the talent disparity.
Nah. I usually plow straight in and let them play catch-up.
The thing is, Diaw can be every bit as effective as West. If Boris is still in 2.0 mode, I have little doubt he can either force the Heat to play big or draw James off Parker. Splitter doesn't have to force Battier off the floor to be effective, since Tiago is good at close-outs from what I can see. He just needs to make sure he finishes the PnR. I also have a lot of confidence in Splitter on Bosh.
I agree the Spurs would like to keep Miami big, but with Diaw playing so well, the Spurs are able to stay big even when teams go small and punish them. It's weird. It's like the Spurs are able to match Miami small-ball inch for inch while still keeping their traditional iden y.
They haven't tried a kamikaze swarm yet, so they still have adjustments to make. My guess is they get length and athleticism on the floor to disrupt passing lanes. They'll foul the bigs a lot but hope they get away with it due to being at home. Brooks sent Perkins in the game for his second stint just to foul Splitter. He'll probably do more of that.the goods. any adjustments you see from OKC going forward?
their best bet at a long-athletic lineup would include adams/perry jones/durant/westbrook/jackson... but jones would gets destroyed in the paint
Chinook, thanks for an excellent post, one of the best things I've read on here in a long time. The resultant "fly-by" vs "no-fly-by" debate has been fascinating.
Thanks for sharing how ed your life is.
Three people just killed themselves reading this post.
At some point TP looked really winded so he asked Green to pickup Chuckbrook, was pretty funny : "nah I'm too tired for this , you go for it".
Good thread overall, it's just extremely hard to rate defensive performances... Green and Kawhi are both very good, Kawhi has the edge to me but depending on matchups Green can easily outplay Kawhi on defense during a whole series... Kinda like reverse CoP and CoM, same on a different end of the court.
Regarding hard close outs there're fine if you don't mind the target driving, like Sefo, on the other hand if you also have to contain prenetration you can't go as hard for the challenge... That ties the point about matchups, the ball fake master Wade seems likes bad matchup for Green while he did way better than expected against LeBron. People are gonna say I'm nuts but I'd seriously consider Green and Boris on LeBron with the crunch time defender depending on what LeBron is having success with (low post or outside shot) while Kawhi completely shuts down Wade (who rarely shoots 3s so he'd be always in position to rebound as well).
tl;dr: If you don't care about looking back at Games Three and Four, wait until tomorrow to look at this thread.
All right. So I know that this thread has been dead for a while now. I haven’t updated it since Game Two. That was due to a combination of a busy week, some technical difficulties, and my general reluctance to look back on such depressing games. However, now that it’s the weekend, I intend to get back on track.
Over the next 24 hours, I will be posting the numbers for Games Three, Four and Five. I won’t provide much analysis for the former two games, as they are pretty much ancient history at this point. I’ll commentate a bit on some trends I found interesting, but for the most part I’m just posting the numbers for anyone who’s been curious. I intend to give a more-honest breakdown of Game Five, however.
So now, the Game Three numbers (NOTE: “Series” means through Game Three, not total):
Durant Game 3 Possesions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Leonard 10 4 3 1 2 11 1.1 Leonard 30 14 11 2 3 34 1.133333 Green 6 2 3 1 0 6 1 Green 13 4 7 2 1 10 0.769231 Parker 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 Belinelli 3 0 2 1 0 2 0.666667 Belinelli 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 Duncan 4 1 1 2 1 5 1.25 Duncan 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 Splitter 7 2 3 1 1 6 0.857143 Splitter 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Ginobili 8 3 3 1 2 8 1 Diaw 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 Baynes 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 Ginobili 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Parker 3 0 1 1 1 2 0.666667 Diaw 4 0 2 1 1 0 0 Total 27 8 11 4 4 25 0.925926 Total 74 24 30 11 12 67 0.905405
Westbrook Game 3 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Leonard 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 Leonard 5 1 2 1 2 2 0.4 Green 7 3 2 1 1 6 0.857143 Green 24 8 11 2 3 19 0.791667 Parker 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Parker 12 3 7 1 1 9 0.75 Belinelli 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Duncan 8 2 2 3 0 9 1.125 Mills 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Splitter 6 2 3 0 1 3 0.5 Duncan 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 Diaw 3 1 2 0 0 2 0.666667 Splitter 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Ginobili 17 6 4 3 5 17 1 Ginobili 10 2 3 2 3 9 0.9 Baynes 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Joseph 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Mills 3 1 2 0 0 3 1 Bonner 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Belinelli 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 Bonner 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Total 28 8 11 4 5 26 0.928571 Joseph 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Total 84 25 38 10 12 66 0.785714 Jackson Game 3 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Leonard 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 Green 8 2 4 0 2 4 0.5 Green 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Parker 5 3 2 0 0 7 1.4 Parker 3 2 1 0 0 5 1.666667 Belinelli 6 4 1 0 1 9 1.5 Belinelli 3 1 1 0 1 2 0.666667 Mills 3 1 0 1 2 2 0.666667 Mills 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 Duncan 5 2 1 0 1 3 0.6 Duncan 3 1 1 0 1 2 0.666667 Diaw 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Splitter 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Ginobili 4 3 1 0 0 6 1.5 Diaw 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Splitter 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 Leonard 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 Total 17 7 1 3 15 0.882353 Total 38 17 13 2 6 35 0.921053
Ibaka Game 3 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Parker 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Bonner 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 Splitter 6 5 0 1 0 12 2 Diaw 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 Total 10 6 1 2 1 15 1.5
Obviously, with Ibaka back, I don’t have to look for a fourth scorer to feature each game. This will be the cast going forward, provided no one else has a breakout performance.
General Notes:
On the subject of Ibaka … damn Splitter got wrecked. Tiago struggled all game closing out on Serge after helping on the PnR handler. Obviously, it got to the point that Pop benched him for Bonner in Game Five. That’s the bad news. The good news is that with Ibaka PnPing so much, OKC didn’t really screen much with Duncan’s man (or at least not in many high PnRs/PnPs). That let Tim stay nearer to the basket. Needless to say, Tim had his best defensive game of the series at least to that point. OKC needs to figure out a balance if they want to exploit Duncan’s lack of mobility.
The game was not fun to watch again for the final score, but it was a joy to see the Ginobili/Westbrook battle. That was Manu’s finest defensive performance in a long time. We all know Russ went HAM in Game Four, but if Ginobili can put together another defensive performance like the ones he had in Games Two and Three tomorrow, it’s going to be hard for OKC to score. Manu was great on both sides of the ball, and it’s a shame the Spurs wasted that.
Leonard had a pretty horrible Game Three defensively. His numbers are pretty strong, but they don’t tell the whole story. Kawhi kept leaving his teammates out to dry in transition and by getting out of position in the half-court. Those mistakes didn’t show up on his stat sheet (and did on Green’s, Manu’s and Parker’s), but he deserved the marks. It’s also concerning that Durant still felt like he could score on Kawhi any time he wanted. But that’s not Leonard’s fault.
That’s it for this game, at least as far as what I think should be said at this point. If anyone has any questions or comments, feel free to let me know. Game Four’s numbers will be up later tonight.
Thanks for the update.
Yeah, Manu's defensive game is still pretty good, and consistently underrated, tbh...
Good stuff. I think it's pretty much impossible to recover and contest on Ibaka, Diaw couldn't do it in 2012 and Tiago cant do it now, you have to pick your poison... Maybe Kawhi could have a shot but he did well on Chuckbrook, besides having Bonner out there was actually good in the way that it made Ibaka attack directly off the dribble and in the post which are areas where he sucks... On the other hand Bonner never really denied the penetration in the first place so he never/rarely had to recover... So he's gonna have good numbers vs Ibaka while playing below average to crappy D...
Cheers man, thanks for all the hard work. It's a good read. Looking forward to the updates.
tl;dr: The next long post I make in this thread will be relevant. I promise.
As promised (though a little late), here are the numbers for Game Four.
Durant Game 4 Possesions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Leonard 6 4 2 1 0 8 1.333333 Leonard 36 18 13 3 3 42 1.166667 Green 3 1 1 1 0 4 1.333333 Green 16 5 8 3 1 14 0.875 Belinelli 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Belinelli 4 1 2 1 0 4 1 Duncan 2 1 0 1 0 3 1.5 Duncan 6 2 1 3 1 8 1.333333 Diaw 3 3 0 0 0 7 2.333333 Splitter 7 2 3 1 1 6 0.857143 Ginobili 2 1 1 0 0 3 1.5 Ginobili 10 4 4 1 2 11 1.1 Bonner 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 Baynes 4 0 1 1 2 1 0.25 Baynes 2 0 1 1 0 1 0.5 Parker 3 0 1 1 1 2 0.666667 Joseph 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 Diaw 7 3 2 1 1 7 1 Ayres 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 Bonner 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 Pop 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 Ayres 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 Joseph 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 Total 27 11 11 7 0 31 1.148148 Pop 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 Total 101 35 41 18 12 98 0.970297
Westbrook Game 4 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Green 3 1 2 0 0 2 0.666667 Leonard 5 1 2 1 2 2 0.4 Parker 10 3 6 1 0 8 0.8 Green 27 9 13 2 3 21 0.777778 Belinelli 2 1 0 1 0 4 2 Parker 22 6 13 2 1 17 0.772727 Mills 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Duncan 8 2 2 3 0 9 1.125 Diaw 4 1 1 1 1 5 1.25 Splitter 6 2 3 0 1 3 0.5 Ginobili 1 0 0 2 0 2 2 Diaw 7 2 3 1 1 7 1 Joseph 8 4 2 3 2 9 1.125 Ginobili 18 6 4 5 5 19 1.055556 Baynes 2 0 0 2 0 4 2 Baynes 3 0 1 2 0 4 1.333333 Ayres 3 1 1 1 0 4 1.333333 Mills 4 2 2 0 0 5 1.25 Belinelli 4 1 2 1 0 4 1 Total 34 12 12 11 3 40 1.176471 Bonner 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Joseph 9 4 3 3 2 9 1 Ayres 3 1 1 1 0 4 1.333333 Total 118 37 50 21 15 106 0.898305
Jackson Game 4 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Green 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 Green 10 2 5 0 3 4 0.4 Parker 2 1 1 0 0 3 1.5 Parker 7 4 3 0 0 10 1.428571 Mills 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Belinelli 6 4 1 0 1 9 1.5 Splitter 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Mills 4 1 1 1 2 2 0.5 Ginobili 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 Duncan 5 2 1 0 1 3 0.6 Diaw 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Total 7 1 4 1 2 3 0.428571 Ginobili 5 3 1 1 1 6 1.2 Splitter 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 Leonard 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 Total 42 18 17 3 8 38 0.904762
Ibaka Game 4 Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Series Possessions Makes Misses Fouls Turnover Points PPP Green 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 Parker 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Belinelli 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Bonner 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 Splitter 4 1 3 0 0 2 0.5 Splitter 10 6 3 1 0 14 1.4 Diaw 2 1 0 1 0 3 1.5 Diaw 4 1 1 1 1 3 0.75 Joseph 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Belinelli 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Green 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 Total 11 4 4 2 1 9 0.818182 Joseph 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Total 21 10 5 4 2 24 1.142857
General Takeways:
The most important thing to take away from this game is that it really wasn’t as bad as it looked. Westbrook didn’t really have a good offensive game. He just shot a lot. Durant faded down the stretch. Ibaka didn’t kill anyone on offense. The loss on Tuesday had much more to do with offense than defense. Green and Diaw being dead from three really hurt the Spurs.
The big storyline coming out of Game Four was that Pop made a huge mistake playing Parker on Westbrook. Perhaps that was indeed the case, as he did switch Kawhi on Russ for Game Five. But I don’t believe the switch was made due to Westbrook going off on Parker. According to my numbers, he simply didn’t. Parker played really good D on Westbrook (much better than he’s played on Jackson, for example). I actually liked the move, as Parker plays his best when he’s engaged on both ends. Tony played good defense while also avoiding trying to trade buckets. That was a huge win.
In actuality, I think Pop made the switch because OKC’s 1/3 PnR was killing a Parker/Leonard defensive duo. This wasn’t really Tony’s fault, as he did a decent job of fighting over Durant’s screens. However, Leonard has a lot to learn about defending the PnR as the screener’s man. He often got out of position on his hedges, and he was neither able to stop Westbrook or get back to Durant. By moving Kawhi onto Russ in Game Five, Pop pretty much prevented Leonard from being in that defensive position again.
The other big storyline out of this game was Splitter’s inability to guard Ibaka. The Thunder won Game Four, so many people didn’t notice, but Serge began his descent back to Earth pretty early on Tuesday night. Tiago did a great job recovering to him while also not allowing a clean drive. OKC thought they had a huge offensive advantage there, but they really didn’t. Unless Ibaka can repeat his Game Three performance, OKC is going to have to hope for huge games (like 40+ points) out of Durant and Westbrook.
As far as individual perimeter defense goes: Green was pretty good in his short time. As I said before, his offense was really the problem. He didn’t shoot a whole bunch like he did in Game Three, but he really didn’t make many good plays on that end when he was out there. Leonard was fine on Durant in the half-court, but he got lost in transition quite a few times, forcing others to scramble. He wasn’t alone in this, however. Beli doesn’t seem to understand when it’s his responsibility to get back. (Green and Parker are excellent at knowing when to do this.) At least Kawhi can claim that he was going for a rebound. Beli has no excuse. Finally, upon further inspection, Joseph’s performance Tuesday night is overrated. He wasn’t really all that good on defense. He simply had a couple of really nice sequences. He almost fouled out in one quarter. That’s all you need to know.
Just one last quick note. I am still keeping track of close-out numbers. The Spurs were pretty lax in Game Four, only giving hard-closes on 4/12 attempts. They didn’t even try to close out on four. Needless to say, the Thunder had their most-successful outing in that sphere, scoring on 8/12 Spurs close-out opportunities.
All right. On to Game Five. Those numbers and commentary should be posted tomorrow during the early or mid afternoon.
Thanks, Chinny. Thing that jumps out to me the most is that in G4 Kawhi didn't cover a single possession against Westchuck but was glued to him all of G5 (or at least that's what I'm expecting to see in those numbers tomorrow). I guess they felt comfortable putting Green on Durant given the success he'd had in G1-4, and Manu since his numbers were also not bad in a decent sample size.
Last edited by Splits; 05-31-2014 at 02:55 AM. Reason: forgot about Manu!
thanks Chinook
Alsoat Parker getting torched by that Somali pirate. Those series totals are going to be even worse when you add in game 5, he was on Jackson for all 5 of his makes in the 1st quarter IIRC
Good read! Thanks!
Also, when the reporters asked Danny about the change's reason, he said it was to prevent the Westbrook/Durant pick and roll. To OP!
But a good D is not allow players shot a lot, too. And that's why I think Parker did a good effort but not played really good D on Westbrook as you said.
We can't only see the PPP stats to analyse globally the defense. There are a lot of factors to take into account like allowing more or less attempts in a game, more or less contested/uncontested shots, etc.
If we use these stats to guide the Spurs future move on D, Belli (1) -according PPP series- was a lot better defender on Durant than Leonard (1,6) or Manu (1,1)...
The best thing of Leonard on Westbrook game 5 was Leonard didn't allow Westbrook get many looks in paint, holding him to only 2 shots at the rim.
But Chinook numbers don't show those things, because like he said his stats ignore possessions that don't end in shots, fouls or turnovers. So the best of Leonard defense is disregarded by his numbers and analysis.
Last edited by wildchild; 05-31-2014 at 10:43 AM.
You don't change defensive schemes based on a few possessions (in Beli's case). Leonard, Green and Manu are each putting in a lot of work against both Durant and Westbrook, so their individual numbers are becoming more stable. I doubt Beli will play enough in this series for him to get enough possessions to be reliable.
You're right ball-denial is the most important aspect to perimeter defense. However, Westbrook is a score-first PG. You can't deny him the ball because he already has it before the play begins. Also, Westbrook's PPP against Parker was a good deal lower than OKC's team PPP (about 1.1). So in theory, it would have been a really sound defensive strategy to let Russ try to score as many as he can against Parker while ignoring more-efficient players. It's a classic case of "letting him get his".
If he really did that, then my subjective analysis will point that out. I am about to do the Game Five numbers as I type this. I will say that I assign blame differently that many people do. Like if Westbrook were to blow by Kawhi and dunk on Splitter, most people would consider that as being Splitter allowing Westbrook a paint score. But if Splitter helped well and Russ just made a great play, I'd assign the mark to Leonard. We'll see. I definitely think that Kawhi got better on Russell as the game wore on. After that dunk, Westbrook didn't really make a lot of noise.The best thing of Leonard on Westbrook game 5 was Leonard didn't allow Westbrook get many looks in paint, holding him to only 2 shots at the rim.
But Chinook numbers don't show those things, because like he said his stats ignore possessions that don't end in shots, fouls or turnovers. So the best of Leonard defense is disregarded by his numbers and analysis.
And, yes. Leonard's strongest attribute on defense is ignored by the stats, but so are his worst attributes. If he messes up and leads to a breakdown elsewhere, then he doesn't get the marks for that. If he doesn't hustle on the break and his man gets a score, he often doesn't get the marks for that. So it cuts both ways, as all PPP does. Green's best attributes do get highlighted by PPP, but his breakdowns almost always lead to his man scoring, so his PPP allowed reflects his negative plays as well.
Why was it a "huge mistake"? Actually this series Parker is the best on Westbrook, every bit as good as Green... yet one is often labeled as a spotty defender, and the other as one of the best.
What I also find interesting is that Durant seems to have issues scoring over bigs: Splitter, Baynes, Ayres and even Bonner all do very well against him.
IMO Westbrook scoring semi-efficiently on 35 possessions is more valuable to this Thunder team, as constructed, than KD scoring hyper-efficiently on 25 possessions. With only 2.5 real offensive weapons they need their superstars to nut up and go hero mode at the cost of efficiency if the Spurs are rolling. KD seems content to get his 28 points on 50%+ shooting and lose as long as his box scores look MVP level.
I think you misunderstood what I wrote. Parker's apparent poor defense was a storyline going into Game Five because many posters and media types were pushing it. Many folks assumed the decision to put Leonard on Westbrook was Pop's response to Tony's porous D, and supposedly Pop backed that up by declaring that Parker 'wouldn't spend on second on Westbrook'. However, the point I was making is that the numbers (as I have collected them at least) demonstrate that Parker has defended Russ very well the entire series. The switch, I feel, was more about Leonard's struggle to guard a 1/3 PnR (specifically that Kawhi didn't know when to hedge, lay off or switch) when Tony was guarding Westbrook than it was with Parker's actual effort, though Pop may have done the switch to preserve Tony as well.
As far as the differences between the way Parker and Green are viewed defensively. I'd say off the bat that Danny is underrated as a defender. More than that, though, Green's considered superior to Parker due to his consistency, team impact and versatility. When Tony is motivated, he's a very strong defender against point-guards. But Green's been doing work against elite perimeter scorers for a few years now. The fact that Danny has played huge (and successful) minutes on Westbrook and Durant, shut down Reggie Jackson and taken Fisher and Butler out of the series is why he's been defensive MVP so far. That doesn't discount that job that Parker and even Leonard have done, though. The Spurs' perimeter defense has been strong all series, even when it didn't look like it.
Last edited by Chinook; 05-31-2014 at 02:03 PM.
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