NFL Week 6 Betting Thread

[Will Hunting]

Here's what I'm playing or teasing so far:
Cleveland +5: they've beat the spread in both games since losing to Oakland and are at home against a Denver team that's relied on defensive scoring to cover the spread.

New England -7: they're going to try to humiliate the colts this week. The colts d line sucks so not having solder won't be a big deal for this game.

New York Jets -6: coming off a bye week and couldn't ask for a better matchup at home.

Seahawks -7: don't trust them to cover but trust them to win so this is a great tease. Their season is essentially over if they lose, and all advanced metrics say carolinas record is fools gold.

Minnesota -3: Minnesota ATS against AFC teams has been good since last year and they're coming off a bye week against a team in shambles.


Games I'm staying away from:
Arizona -3 @ Pittsburg: don't trust Pitt with Vick starting and don't trust Arizona in an early start b2b road game.

atlanta -4 @ New Orleans: NO will probably have 2-3 random games this year where they overachieve and look like they're in 09 form like they did last year against Green Bay.

Chicago @ Detroit: Detroits schedule has been brutal so far and it's unclear how they'll look against another bad team.

Baltimore @ San Fran: Impossible to predict how this one turns out.

NY Giants @ philly: I'm still too scared to bet on any philly games. If NY is getting points and we find out Cruz, Odell and Randle are all playing then this game looks tempting.

[Avante]

NE has owned the Luck Colts.

2014..42-20 and 45-7
2013..43-22
2012..59-24

At no time did we see a worst Colts team than this one. Definate play!

The Jets are 1-6 ATS coming off a bye week, can't ignore that. That might change with new coaching but that's a ...? Pass.

The Panthers have played the Seahawks close with one exception. That Seahawks 0 line, yikes! Don't like the '"spor" from an ATS perspective.

The Vikes are 0-5 ATS coming off a bye week, maybe that will change with Zimmer. I can see ignoring the 0-5 because this Chiefs team is like you said in shambles. Might pull the Trigger on this one myself.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Look at the GB game. The Chargers coming off a short week on the road vs a team at home "again". I get the number is huge but I can see 32-17, 28-10 as a very real possibility in this "spot". The Packers are hot the Chargers are not.

Chargers 4-6 in their last 10 road games, the Packers are 11-0 at home.

As of right now giving...

NE
GB

...some serious thought. Having a hard time finding good "spots" this week, a lot of games with too many...??? Might play that Vikes game.

The Lions are 5-0 ATS last five vs Bears in Detroit, the Bears are heading into a bye week, and....the Bears are 1-14 ATS coming off a non conference opponet. BUT....can we play a team 0-5 with coach vs QB problems?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Those games you tossed out, yep, that's where ya start. Weeding out games, trying to widdle it down to 3-6 where you can find reasons/logic as to why one team should cover the number. If ya do the work you will hit 3 of 5, 6 of 10, that's all anyone can hope for.

Obviously, turnovers/injuries will alway up the best laid plans. But you did know the right side.

[Will Hunting]

NE has owned the Luck Colts.

2014..42-20 and 45-7
2013..43-22
2012..59-24

At no time did we see a worst Colts team than this one. Definate play!

The Jets are 1-6 ATS coming off a bye week, can't ignore that. That might change with new coaching but that's a ...? Pass.

The Panthers have played the Seahawks close with one exception. That Seahawks 0 line, yikes! Don't like the '"spor" from an ATS perspective.

The Vikes are 0-5 ATS coming off a bye week, maybe that will change with Zimmer. I can see ignoring the 0-5 because this Chiefs team is like you said in shambles. Might pull the Trigger on this one myself.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Look at the GB game. The Chargers coming off a short week on the road vs a team at home "again". I get the number is huge but I can see 32-17, 28-10 as a very real possibility in this "spot". The Packers are hot the Chargers are not.

Chargers 4-6 in their last 10 road games, the Packers are 11-0 at home.

As of right now giving...

NE
GB

...some serious thought. Having a hard time finding good "spots" this week, a lot of games with too many...??? Might play that Vikes game.

The Lions are 5-0 ATS last five vs Bears in Detroit, the Bears are heading into a bye week, and....the Bears are 1-14 ATS coming off a non conference opponet. BUT....can we play a team 0-5 with coach vs QB problems?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Those games you tossed out, yep, that's where ya start. Weeding out games, trying to widdle it down to 3-6 where you can find reasons/logic as to why one team should cover the number. If ya do the work you will hit 3 of 5, 6 of 10, that's all anyone can hope for.

Obviously, turnovers/injuries will alway up the best laid plans. But you did know the right side.

I don't put much stock in the coming off bye week numbers from 2-3+ years ago. There's too much turnover in the NFL to look at a trends that dated, personnel/coaches change too frequently.

I'm tempted by the GB game but GB's offense has slowed down the last few weeks and the Chargers w/ Rivers are always a Jekyll & Hyde team that never blows anyone out but doesn't get blown out either. 11 points is lot to cover against a team with a good QB. IMO it's a game to include in a teaser but not a good straight up bet.

[Avante]

I don't put much stock in the coming off bye week numbers from 2-3+ years ago. There's too much turnover in the NFL to look at a trends that dated, personnel/coaches change too frequently.

I'm tempted by the GB game but GB's offense has slowed down the last few weeks and the Chargers w/ Rivers are always a Jekyll & Hyde team that never blows anyone out but doesn't get blown out either. 11 points is lot to cover against a team with a good QB. IMO it's a game to include in a teaser but not a good straight up bet.

Trust me, if a team has the same coach/QB you take into consideration any strong trends, sure, with a new coach, QB you start over.

Don't iignore any numbers like 6-0, there will always be a good reason for....6-0 or stronger trends.
GB is 8-0 ATS the last three seasons laying double digits. But....I do get where you're at on this. I rarely play a number like that.

With Andrew Luck or three seasons and five weeks if ya simply took the Colts ATS vs the division, you'd be....16-3-2.

[HarlemHeat37]

Not betting these games, but trying out a new system I've been tinkering with the past 2 years..so far, it's hitting at 76%, this season, which I highly doubt will be sustainable, tbh..expecting it will end up around 60%, which would be great..

Not going to bet them, though, just testing vs. the opening lines:

Saints +3(already hit)
Bengals -1
Browns +4.5
Bears +3.5
Jets -6
Dolphins +2
Packers -9.5
49ers +2.5
Patriots -7
Eagles -3.5

Strongest plays:
1. Packers
2. Jets
3. Patriots
4. Eagles
5. 49ers

[Avante]

Not betting these games, but trying out a new system I've been tinkering with the past 2 years..so far, it's hitting at 76%, this season, which I highly doubt will be sustainable, tbh..expecting it will end up around 60%, which would be great..

Not going to bet them, though, just testing vs. the opening lines:

Saints +3(already hit)
Bengals -1
Browns +4.5
Bears +3.5
Jets -6
Dolphins +2
Packers -9.5
49ers +2.5
Patriots -7
Eagles -3.5

Strongest plays:
1. Packers
2. Jets
3. Patriots
4. Eagles
5. 49ers

Talk me into why the Eagles are among the best plays in ths "spot"..?

[bigzak25]

Skins will be missing our starting pro bowl lt Trent Williams and our starting center. Lots of skins fans conceding this one...but , I never say die! Eff the jets!

[Avante]

This is something I use as another tool afte week 4, when we have some info.

http://www.nfl.com/standings

Look at NE, they are plus 73, now look at Indy at minus 14.

That is strong, dramatic! Something you can't ignore. Sure a plus 20 vs a mius 10...no big deal but a plus 73 vs a minus 14, this deserves a serious look.

Let me tell ya something, when I first started doing this I was like a lot of you, it was.....how can all that actually mean anything, talk about bull , there it is. Then I bought a book on beating the NFL point spread written by Wayne Allyn Root. He broke it all down and explained trends and tendancies, so I began using the techniques he used. What to look for, how to zero in on "spots". I'm telling ya there is a science to this, sure sure turnovers/injuries will up any system, but yu aren't looking to win more than 60% of the time, anything else isn't realistic.

There is no way in anyone can win $$$$$ doing this without having some system, doing the work.

If I knew I wan't going to win there is no way I would do this here, knowing how all of you are dying to....YOU SUCK~~~~....while totally ignoring the wins, which is funny. But that's how it is on these boards. I do get a kick out of it.


Smart guys cool the...HAHA YOU SUCK....because it will always get easier, the first 8 weeks far harder to figure than the last 8 when we start seeing the playoff drive and those wanting the season to end.

Root
Sports handicapper[edit]

Root's TV handicapping career began in New York City on WNBC radio (now WFAN) in the early 1980s. He moved onto NBC "Source Radio Network" syndicated around the country in over 100 markets as a sports talk host. He later became one of the youngest anchormen and national TV hosts in America from 1989 through the early 1990s on Financial News Network (FNN), now known as CNBC.

This guy knows his stuff, I;m a student.

[Will Hunting]

Regarding my OP, wasn't able to get pats -7 so I bet them -10.

Bet the Hawks/packers as a 7 point teaser so Seahawks even and packers -4.

[HarlemHeat37]

Not betting these games, but trying out a new system I've been tinkering with the past 2 years..so far, it's hitting at 76%, this season, which I highly doubt will be sustainable, tbh..expecting it will end up around 60%, which would be great..

Not going to bet them, though, just testing vs. the opening lines:

Saints +3(already hit)
Bengals -1
Browns +4.5
Bears +3.5
Jets -6
Dolphins +2
Packers -9.5
49ers +2.5
Patriots -7
Eagles -3.5

Strongest plays:
1. Packers
2. Jets
3. Patriots
4. Eagles
5. 49ers

this system is hitting at a ridiculous rate, tbh..gonna have to start betting it blindly, although I still expect serious regression soon..

[Will Hunting]

this system is hitting at a ridiculous rate, tbh..gonna have to start betting it blindly, although I still expect serious regression soon..

PM me details about whatever system you're using

[SuperCam]

Calling statistical variance a bonafide system result

[HarlemHeat37]

Another one..damn..

[HarlemHeat37]

I'll PM you the results for week 7 on Wednesday or Thursday..

PM me details about whatever system you're using

[AlexJones]

I'll PM you the results for week 7 on Wednesday or Thursday..

How you feel about the weedman as prime minister, bro?

[313]

this system is hitting at a ridiculous rate, tbh..gonna have to start betting it blindly, although I still expect serious regression soon..

Im new to sports betting. Those are the listed spreads from Sunday and you bet on or against them? or did you make up your own spreads?

[chunticakes]

this system is hitting at a ridiculous rate, tbh..gonna have to start betting it blindly, although I still expect serious regression soon..

I want in on your system too. I was an atrocious 1-5 this week

[313]

I want in on your system too. I was an atrocious 1-5 this week

what were your bets? It seems pretty easy

[chunticakes]

what were your bets? It seems pretty easy

Actually I went 2-5. Didn't give myself enough credit.

Atlanta (doubled)
Houston
Kansas City
Arizona
New England
New York Giants

By far my worst week of the year. 20-15 thus far, tbh.

[AlexJones]

Hammering Jets +9 on Sunday

[HarlemHeat37]

Bills -4
Browns +6.5
Bucs +3.5
Cowboys +3.5
Lions +3
Patriots -9
Chargers -4
Panthers -3

[Will Hunting]

My bets:

Jets +16 and Browns +13 (7 point teaser)
Bills +1.5 and Falcons even (6 point teaser)
Chargers +2 and Colts +1.6 (6 point teaser)
Tampa Bay +3.5
Cardinals -9
Panthers -3

[SpursforSix]

Used HH list to confirm several of these that I was wobbling on.
Bucs +3.5
Cowboys +3.5
Lions +3
Patriots -9
Chargers -4
Panthers -3
Colts -5
Seahawks -7

Adding Atlanta...-7

[SpursforSix]

Bills -4
Browns +6.5
Bucs +3.5
Cowboys +3.5
Lions +3
Patriots -9
Chargers -4
Panthers -3

Did you accidentally post the opposite of the recommendations?

[HarlemHeat37]

Did you accidentally post the opposite of the recommendations?

regression was expected, tbh..Patriots and Lions hurt the outcomes in the final minute, too..

Shouldn't blindly follow systems, though, as I said earlier..Chargers have a bid history vs. Oakland, 90% of the fans in their stadium are Raiders fans and week after the heartbreak vs. GB, for example, days systems don't take it into consideration..injuries and bye weeks, too, of course..

As I told Dok, teasers are the best options for NFL..Patriots/Cards was the only viable option this week, though IMO..