NFL Week 6 Betting Thread

[SpursforSix]

regression was expected, tbh..Patriots and Lions hurt the outcomes in the final minute, too..

Shouldn't blindly follow systems, though, as I said earlier..Chargers have a bid history vs. Oakland, 90% of the fans in their stadium are Raiders fans and week after the heartbreak vs. GB, for example, days systems don't take it into consideration..injuries and bye weeks, too, of course..

As I told Dok, teasers are the best options for NFL..Patriots/Cards was the only viable option this week, though IMO..

I liked several of those anyway. I'm thinking of making it all up on Panthers

[Will Hunting]

regression was expected, tbh..Patriots and Lions hurt the outcomes in the final minute, too..

Shouldn't blindly follow systems, though, as I said earlier..Chargers have a bid history vs. Oakland, 90% of the fans in their stadium are Raiders fans and week after the heartbreak vs. GB, for example, days systems don't take it into consideration..injuries and bye weeks, too, of course..

As I told Dok, teasers are the best options for NFL..Patriots/Cards was the only viable option this week, though IMO..

Yeah all my teasers sucked this week but I went 2-0 on college so I should hopefully be around even.

This is looking like the week Vegas gets revenge for the first few weeks of the season.

[Will Hunting]

Classic Giants to outplay the other team the entire game but to never get separation.

[SpursforSix]

Yeah all my teasers sucked this week but I went 2-0 on college so I should hopefully be around even.

This is looking like the week Vegas gets revenge for the first few weeks of the season.

It makes me nervous about Carolina -3 which seems like a great bet.

[Will Hunting]

It makes me nervous about Carolina -3 which seems like a great bet.

Same. The reason I'm somewhat confident is that the -3 line seems like an overreaction to Philly's last two weeks when I view them as an inconsistent team that'll be up and down all year.

Carolina is also underrated at this point. They've been rolling since the end of last year and for all the talk about their offense they're scoring plenty of points this year.

[SpursforSix]

Same. The reason I'm somewhat confident is that the -3 line seems like an overreaction to Philly's last two weeks when I view them as an inconsistent team that'll be up and down all year.

That's how I see it as well. Hopefully plays out that way.

[pgardn]

This is something I use as another tool afte week 4, when we have some info.

http://www.nfl.com/standings

Look at NE, they are plus 73, now look at Indy at minus 14.

That is strong, dramatic! Something you can't ignore. Sure a plus 20 vs a mius 10...no big deal but a plus 73 vs a minus 14, this deserves a serious look.

Let me tell ya something, when I first started doing this I was like a lot of you, it was.....how can all that actually mean anything, talk about bull , there it is. Then I bought a book on beating the NFL point spread written by Wayne Allyn Root. He broke it all down and explained trends and tendancies, so I began using the techniques he used. What to look for, how to zero in on "spots". I'm telling ya there is a science to this, sure sure turnovers/injuries will up any system, but yu aren't looking to win more than 60% of the time, anything else isn't realistic.

There is no way in anyone can win $$$$$ doing this without having some system, doing the work.

If I knew I wan't going to win there is no way I would do this here, knowing how all of you are dying to....YOU SUCK~~~~....while totally ignoring the wins, which is funny. But that's how it is on these boards. I do get a kick out of it.


Smart guys cool the...HAHA YOU SUCK....because it will always get easier, the first 8 weeks far harder to figure than the last 8 when we start seeing the playoff drive and those wanting the season to end.

Root
Sports handicapper[edit]

Root's TV handicapping career began in New York City on WNBC radio (now WFAN) in the early 1980s. He moved onto NBC "Source Radio Network" syndicated around the country in over 100 markets as a sports talk host. He later became one of the youngest anchormen and national TV hosts in America from 1989 through the early 1990s on Financial News Network (FNN), now known as CNBC.

This guy knows his stuff, I;m a student.

Have you no shame?

You just suck.

[Avante]

Have you no shame?

You just suck.

Why do you CONSTANTLY try to talk about things you obviously know nothing about?

[Avante]

Used HH list to confirm several of these that I was wobbling on.
Bucs +3.5
Cowboys +3.5
Lions +3
Patriots -9
Chargers -4
Panthers -3
Colts -5
Seahawks -7

Adding Atlanta...-7

What a rookie, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SpursforSix]

What a rookie, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ya don't get it do ya slick. It's not about...this one week....it's about...last year I won $38,000...
and this season...yep...up 1500,00.25.
you pick your spots....got it? trends and knowing yours spots. they don't always win every time...never heard of someone who won EVERY BET????
sheeesh rookies

[Avante]

ya don't get it do ya slick. It's not about...this one week....it's about...last year I won $38,000...
and this season...yep...up 1500,00.25.
you pick your spots....got it? trends and knowing yours spots. they don't always win every time...never heard of someone who won EVERY BET????
sheeesh rookies

translation

Yep, I suck at this.

[SpursforSix]

Yep, I suck at this.

you suck at everything

[Avante]

you suck at everything

Up over $3000 right here since 2013 and can take all of you to school on the who,what, where and when pertaining to pro football. So you're wrong as usual.

Little man talk to me about Prentice Gautt, ok? Hahahaha, ing rookie.

[SpursforSix]

Up over $3000 right here since 2013 and can take all of you to school on the who,what, where and when pertaining to pro football. So you're wrong as usual.

Little man talk to me about Prentice Gautt, ok? Hahahaha, ing rookie.

talk to me about the karmic retribution you face for hurting those young children overseas

[Blake]

Up over $3000 right here since 2013

Sad delusional old .

[HarlemHeat37]

Let's see if this system bounces back:

Patriots -8
Falcons -7.5
Vikings -1
Giants +3.5
49ers +9.5
Raiders +2.5
Seahawks -6

[Avante]

Sad delusional old .

As this freak totally ignores my do ented plus $2100 in that ...Avante Betting Thread...from 2014, and my picks right here this season. Poor little simply can't deal with the fact I am what I said I was, yep....expert!

My picks will be right here, just pay attention.

[Avante]

talk to me about the karmic retribution you face for hurting those young children overseas

I'll go slow...

You walk in a bar in Hong Kong/Olongapo/Singapore/Bangkok/Tokyo, and here they come begging you to be with them. There ain't NOBODY, NOBODY the least bit concerned with..."well, how old are you"....hahaha!!!! What are you guy ing re ed? They didn't give a , that's how they live over there. Been going on forever.

Dude, are you really this stupid?

Now think ya dumb , who is going to be interested in some flat chested under developed "girl" over a full grown woman, well? Come on got stop acting like some re over this, ok?

[Avante]

Let's see if this system bounces back:

Patriots -8
Falcons -7.5
Vikings -1
Giants +3.5
49ers +9.5
Raiders +2.5
Seahawks -6

There is no system that puts a blanket over games, you must look at the "individual" teams in whatever particular "spot" they are in that week, trust me!

Some teams shine coming off a bye, some suck. Some are great in these night games, others suck. There is no "one size fits all'.

[HarlemHeat37]

There is no system that puts a blanket over games, you must look at the "individual" teams in whatever particular "spot" they are in that week, trust me!

Some teams shine coming off a bye, some suck. Some are great in these night games, others suck. There is no "one size fits all'.

I'm aware of this, you and I have discussed betting many times over the years..I said it earlier in the thread, too..

Successful statistical systems do help with leans and add another wrinkle to the thought process, which is the point..as I said earlier, they don't factor injuries, seasonal momentum, and random variables(like the Chargers being @ home, yet the Raiders having 80% of the fans in the stadium, for example)..

[Avante]

I'm aware of this, you and I have discussed betting many times over the years..I said it earlier in the thread, too..

Successful statistical systems do help with leans and add another wrinkle to the thought process, which is the point..as I said earlier, they don't factor injuries, seasonal momentum, and random variables(like the Chargers being @ home, yet the Raiders having 80% of the fans in the stadium, for example)..

How much do you put into HF/RD etc?

This week Indy is a 6-12 RD(last 3 seasons) vs a Carolina team at 11-4 as a HF. That's a strong 23-10 trend favoring the Panthers. Do you look at that as one of your tools?

The Panthers being a plus 50 (points scored/given up) while the Colts are a minus 30. That's an 80 point difference.

[HarlemHeat37]

How much do you put into HF/RD etc?

This week Indy is a 6-12 RD(last 3 seasons) vs a Carolina team at 11-4 as a HF. That's a strong 23-10 trend favoring the Panthers. Do you look at that, as one of your tools?

I look at those trends when the teams involved have the same coaching staff and somewhat similar rosters over 2 years or more..in this case, both teams have been run by the same coaching staff/QBs/main players the past few seasons, so definitely meaningful..

It also helps that the Colts seem like they're on the verge of imploding with all the rumors of Pagano being fired soon..

[HarlemHeat37]

I also avoid betting vs. hot teams like the Dolphins tonight..I'd rather wait and see how they look tonight, it'll be their real test, since it's possible these past 2 games were a product of playing vs. bottom-feeders..

[Avante]

I look at those trends when the teams involved have the same coaching staff and somewhat similar rosters over 2 years or more..in this case, both teams have been run by the same coaching staff/QBs/main players the past few seasons, so definitely meaningful..

It also helps that the Colts seem like they're on the verge of imploding with all the rumors of Pagano being fired soon..

Yep, ya wanna look at that coach/QB combo, when it comes to putting a lot into trends. Once that changes ya start building new trends. Other than a few time tested like...home/road.....dome teams on grass........east coast teams flying west/west coast teams on the east coast.

I played one day game as a HSer, I hated it, and had a game, I liked being under those Friday night lights. Playing in a totally different time zone is a big deal.

Panthers are hot, at home "again" vs a Colts team like you said, a perfect "spot" to lay the number with Carolina, which I have.

[SpursforSix]

Packers -3.5
Falcons -7.5
Saints -3
Jets -3