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I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...r-for-the-gop/
The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it — Republicans aren’t very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote:
The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.
I’d urge a little bit of caution here, given that swings in enthusiasm can be transient and can sometimes exaggerate the underlying change in voter sentiment. Our polls-only forecast has Clinton up by about 7 percentage points instead of by double digits — and our polls-plus forecast would still bet on the race tightening slightly.
But you can easily see how the worst-case scenario is firmly on the table for Trump and Republican down-ballot candidates, where the bottom falls out from GOP turnout. Consider:
- Trump is getting only about 80 percent of the Republican vote, whereas candidates typically finish at about 90 percent of their party’s vote or above.
- Furthermore, the Republicans missing from Trump’s column tend to be high-education, high-income voters, who typically also have a high propensity to vote.
- Voters are increasingly convinced that Clinton will win the election, and turnout can be lower in lopsided elections. (Although, this presents risks to both candidates: complacency on the part of Democrats, despondency on the part of Republicans.)
- Republicans and Trump have a substantial ground game deficit, with Clinton and Democrats holding a nearly 4-1 advantage in paid staffers.
- Trump’s rhetoric that the election is rigged could discourage turnout among his own voters.
- Trump’s base is relatively small, especially if he underperforms among college-educated Republicans.
The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that high-information Republican voters, seeing Trump imploding and not necessarily having been happy with him as their nominee in the first place, feel free to cast a protest vote at the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, lower-information Republican voters don’t turn out at all, given that Trump’s rigging rhetoric could suppress their vote and that Republicans don’t have the field operation to pull them back in. That’s how you could get a Clinton landslide like the one the ABC News poll describes, along with a Democratic Senate and possibly even — although it’s a reach — a Democratic House.
That isn’t the only scenario in play, but it’s an increasing possibility. Overall, Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency are 87 percent according to our polls-only model and 85 percent according to polls-plus.
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
I stopped paying attention to individual polls some time ago. The aggregates that consider bias is where it is at.
At this point Trump might lose AZ, NV, and GA. That would be hilarious with board conservatives not likely to be back until midterms.
I'm going to go vote tomorrow. I wonder what turnout is going to look like in Texas for early voting.
Texas polls are within the margin of error. I'm going to vote dem I think instead of my typical third party column voting.
It'll be strange to have a vote that might actually mean something for once. My federal house district is safe Democrat and my state house district is safe Republican so they have never meant much.
LOL at the OP.
Anyone not think Hillary will depress the democrat vote?
Lol at a dimwits reading comprehension. They address this.
Take your mexican friends along.
She's certainly not depressing the women vote. There's a surge in early voting among women. North Carolina is looking good in early voting thus far.
It's their own fault for ting all over their own candidate for 18 months and refusing to listen to their base. Blow both of these pieces of up and start over
when these "never trump" assholes started their did they seriously think that there wouldn't be downballot repercussions? I'll be voting for trump and third party where available and not voting where there are only two choices
Last edited by Axl Rose; 10-23-2016 at 04:03 PM.
Fault lies with Trump himself. He never even tried to expand the base outside of his crazy basket of deplorables.
The actual decent republicans said no to him because he was an extremist. Is that simple.
The race would have been down to teh wire if he just kept his mouth shut for the most part.
last three presidents they were right
This one doesn't oversample dems +12 or 14 and women 60-40. It's been the most accurate poll the past few election cycles
All this talk she has it in bag people will not come out and vote for the clinton
I'll meet you half way and give you that point. This one could be a little of an outlier. But it does show the dems are now more enthusiastic about voting.
Still, her lead is around 6-7 points on average. The LA poll has been proven to be the ultimate outlier of all outlier so throw that out.
but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.
Dont know where you're getting your information but you might want to find someplace else to get solid info.
First of all the la poll has a republican bias to the tune of 6 points.
Ibd has also a republican bias although not as egregious as the la one.
As for early voting. Early returns look good for dems in North Carolina and Florida. 2 key states Trump has to have. No exceptions.
The last weekly poll showed the enthusiasm for democrats at an all time high of 83. Trump's went from 90 to 79. Huge drop off.
The sooner people come to terms with this the better off they'll be. This won't be a close election.
Your kidding yourself if you think Republicans like Romney and Paul Ryan didn't support him because they're "decent". They didn't support him because he wanted to dismantle the free trade bull & hawkish foreign policy that they've supported.
Alao don't you find it odd that both of them are in the low 40s? No idea what methodology they are using but each of them have consistently had a 45-47%. Certainly the case with Hillary. In the Ibd polls she comes down to Trump. Why?
As as far as I'm concerned nothing campaign ending has happened to the Hillary campaign to lose 5 or 6 percent since the first debate.
Ryan would support him if he thought Trump could win. He was about to go campaigning with him until the "Grab them in the pussy" tape effectively ended the election*
*assuming Russialeaks doesn't have any really good dirt on Cunton
Such cherry-picking. IBD was a whole 0.5% closer averaged over the last three presidential elections than ABC, who has the up 12.
So you're saying Trump is actually leading and winning this election?
State polls don't reflect that at all and she has had double digit leads in most of them for the last couple of weeks. Even Arizona is +1 right now for her.
I meant Trumpfan is cherry picking a single poll and holding out hope because it was slightly more accurate when averaged over the last 3 presidential elections than the ones that have Clinton demolishing Trump.
Oh. lol
You managed to throw both Trump and Hillary under the bus so was hard to tell. lmao
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